Next Plc · LSE:NXT

Next — FY2018 Earnings Presentation

101 slides from Next's earnings presentation, March 2018

  1. Slide 1: Next January 2018

  2. Slide 2: Group income statement

    £m 2018 2017 Ful Pree Total sales 4,118 4137 -0.5% +0.7% Operating profit 760 828 - 8.2% Interest (34) (38) + £4m Profit before tax 726 790 - 8.1% Taxation (134) (155) Profit after tax 592 635 - 6.8% EPS (underlying) 416.7p 441.3p - 5.6% Ordinary dividends per share 158p 158p Dividend cover 2.6x

  3. Slide 3: Cash flow

    £m Profit before tax Depreciation / disposals Capital expenditure Working capital / other Tax paid ESOT Cash flow before distribution

  4. Slide 4: Capital expenditure

    Cash Flow next 2018 Capital expenditure (161) Jan 2019(e) Jan 2018 Jan 2017 £130m £104m £161m | Warehouse £28m | Head Office and Systems | Cosmetic refits £35m ae £12m £15m Stores

  5. Slide 5: Cash flow after distributions

    £m Profit before tax Depreciation / disposals Capital expenditure Working capital / other Tax paid ESOT Ordinary dividends Special dividends / buybacks Net cash flow

  6. Slide 6: Balance Sheet: Debtors

    Balance Sheet next 2018 561 43 490 Debtors 1,126 + £122m Online Jan 2018 Jan 2017 debtors | ahivne 2” MisKeortn Full year . Jan 2018 + 69 Jan 2017 credit sales 6%

  7. Slide 7: Balance Sheet: Debtors

    Balance Sheet next 2018 561 43 490 Debtors 1,126 + £122m Online Jan 2018 Jul 2017 Jan 2017 debtors £1,117m + 12% £997m 0% £1,002m Full year i 201 +109 Jul 2017 +19 Jan 2017 credit sales [muumammae * '07 MRR 1% [Re

  8. Slide 8: Balance sheet summary

    £m 2018 2017 Fixed assets and investments 561 581 Goodwill and intangibles 43 43 Stock 490 451 Debtors 1,248 1,126 Creditors / derivatives (963) (893) Pension surplus 106 63 Net assets 483 510

  9. Slide 9: Full Year Debt and Cash Flow

    Full Year Debt and Cash Flow next 1400 1200 Jan 2017 861 1000 800 Operational | 335 | “79. Special dividends 256 600 400 200 £m

  10. Slide 10: Debt and cash flow including buybacks

    * * Includes £26m of share buybacks from 2018/19 surplus cash

  11. Slide 11: Full Year Debt and Cash Flow Jan 2018 to Jan 2019

    Full Year Debt and Cash Flow Jan 2018 to Jan 2019© 1400 Jan 2019 200 Jan 2018 Central 1 iT (e) 1.0 bn Guidance F . 1000 Operational Online debt () | | _ 300 Buybacks 11 Oo | 275@ 800 600 400 200 £m

  12. Slide 12: Funding Requirements

    Funding Requirements next 1400 1.4bn Peak 00 Bank facility 1.2bn© 525m 1000 Jan 2019 Libne 800 600 Bonds 875m 400 200 £m

  13. Slide 13: Retail

  14. Slide 14: 2016/17 profit restated

    2016/17 profit reported Change in cost allocation 2016/17 profit restated Retail Online £339m £444m +£14m -£14m £353m £430m £783m

  15. Slide 15: Retail results

    £m 2018 2017 Full Price Total sales 2,123 2,305 - 79% - 70% Operating profit 269 353 Restated

  16. Slide 16: Retail: Store Openings and Closures

    Retail : Store Openings and Closures Sq. ft. Stores 000’s January 2017 538 7,978 New 7 70 Extensions (4), resites (11) 143 Closed (14), resites (3) (17) (162) January 2018 528 8,029 (10) +51

  17. Slide 17: Retail: Store Openings and Closures

    Retail : Store Openings and Closures Stores NBC I Closed 14 £2.7m Compulsory purchase 1 £0.8m Lease end 1 £1.7m Sublet 2 £0.2m 12% 24% 10% 8%

  18. Slide 18: Retail: Sales Analysis

    Retail : Sales Analysis 2018 Full Price 2,123 - 7.0% 269 Performance of new space Sales v target Payback (months) Store profit * Forecast for stores opened or extended in the last 12 months

  19. Slide 19: Retail: Profit Analysis

    Retail : Profit Analysis 2018 Full Price 2,123 - 7.0% 269 12.7% Margin movement Bought-in gross margin + 0.1% Markdown - 0.3% Sale stock Stock loss - 0.1% Markdown sales |= 16% | Achieved gross margin - 0.3%

  20. Slide 20: Retail: Profit Analysis

    Retail : Profit Analysis 2018 Full Price 2,123 - 70% 269 12.7% Achieved gross margin - 0.3% Store payroll + 0.2% Store occupancy - 17% Warehousing and distribution - 0.2% Central overheads - 0.6% Margin movement - 2.6%

  21. Slide 21: Online

  22. Slide 22: Online: Sales Analysis

    Online : Sales Analysis 2018 Full Price 1,887 + 11.2% 461 Full price sales analysis Increase on last year H1 H2 NEXT Brand UK + £16m + 2% -4% +7% LABEL + £92m +43% +41% +45% UK total + £108m +9% +3% +14%

  23. Slide 23: Online: Sales Analysis

    Online : Sales Analysis 2018 Full Price 1,887 + 11.2% 461 Full price sales analysis Increase on last year UK total + £108m + 9% Overseas + £59m + 26% Total + £167m + 11%

  24. Slide 24: Online: Sales Analysis

    Online : Sales Analysis 2018 Full Price 1,887 + 11.2% 461 Full price sales analysis Increase on last year Avg. customers UK total + £108m + 9% + 3% Constant Currency Overseas + £59m + 10% + 10% Total + £167m + 9% +4%

  25. Slide 25: Online: Sales Analysis

    Online : Sales Analysis 2018 Full Price 1,887 + 11.2% 461 Full price sales analysis Increase on last year Avg. customers UK credit + £98m + 9% 0% UK cash + £10m + 5% + 8% UK total + £108m +9% +3%

  26. Slide 26: UK credit active customers

    Online : Sales Analysis 2018 Full Price 1,887 + 11.2% 461 UK credit active customers 0% ” nN we AS 5% 4 * Prior year active customers have been restated as reflected last year

  27. Slide 27: Online: Profit Analysis

    Online : Profit Analysis 2018 Full Price 1,887 + 11.2% 461 24.4% Margin movement Bought-in gross margin - 0.6% Markdown -02% REA Achieved gross margin -0.8% PS 1% |

  28. Slide 28: Online: Profit Analysis

    Online : Profit Analysis 2018 Full Price 1,887 + 11.2% 461 24.4% Achieved gross margin - 0.8% Interest income - 0.3% Catalogues and mailshots + 1.0% Online marketing - 0.3% Systems - 0.2% Central overheads + 0.2% Margin movement - 0.4%

  29. Slide 29: 2017/18

    2017/18

  30. Slide 30: Cost price inflation

  31. Slide 31: Cost price inflation: UK clothing and footwear

  32. Slide 32: Subdued UK consumer

  33. Slide 33: Online growth 10.3%

    10.3%

  34. Slide 34: Cyclical and structural factors 2017/18

  35. Slide 35: Structural shift to online 2017/18

    Structural SL to pein : 2017/18 ynline Brand -167m + £26m + 11.2% + 0.7%

  36. Slide 36: Structural shift to online: profit performance

    Structural shift to online 2017/18 Profit performance Full price sales + 0.7% 2016/17 £790m + £167m

  37. Slide 37: Structural shift to online: profit performance

    Structural shift to online 2017/18 Profit performance Full price sales + 0.7% 2016/17 £790m

  38. Slide 38: Structural shift to online: profit performance

    Structural shift to online 2017/18 Profit performance Full price sales + 0.7% 2016/17 £790m

  39. Slide 39: Structural shift to online: profit performance

    Structural shift to online 2017/18 Profit performance Full price sales + 0.7% 2016/17 £790m

  40. Slide 40: Structural shift to online: profit performance

    Structural shift to online 2017/18 Profit performance Full price sales + 0.7% 2017/18 2016/17 £726m £790m - £141m + £167m ¢ Stock for sale - 4% ¢ Markdown sales - 10%

  41. Slide 41: Cost price inflation

  42. Slide 42: Cost price inflation

    QP wa 12% de 0% + 5 . . : : Cost price inflation

  43. Slide 43: Subdued UK consumer

    C P| ost price | ONS (20 March) : consume + 5% ’ nn 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 ONS (21st March) Jan2 CPI uaieey s ——— 5 0E (8th February) + 2% Avg. earnings +1% v Source: ONS - CPI Actual (13' February), Average Weekly Earnings (21st February) 0%

  44. Slide 44: Cost price inflation / Subdued UK consumer

    Cost price inflation Subdued UK consumer

  45. Slide 45: 2018/19

    2018/19

  46. Slide 46: 2018/19 cyclical and structural factors

  47. Slide 47: 2018/19 The plan

  48. Slide 48: Tailoring

    Tailoring

  49. Slide 49: Improve ranges: full price sales outlook

    2018/19 A) Improve ranges The plan Full price sales outlook | 2017/18 Presented on 23'¢ March 2017

  50. Slide 50: Improve ranges: sales by quarter 2017/18

    2018/19 ©) Improve ranges The plan Full price sales by quarter | 2017/18 To Christmas Eve Full price sales outlook | 2017/18© Qi Q2 Q3 Q4

  51. Slide 51: Improve ranges: sales by quarter 2018/19

    2018/19 ©) Improve ranges The plan Full price sales by quarter | 2018/19 at | Mi 3 04 jee) |e G GS

  52. Slide 52: Defend Retail sales

  53. Slide 53: Stock visibility

    OGOOOGD§ HHoOOOoGOE ©OOOOGO® OOoo® Stock visibility

  54. Slide 54: Stock visibility

    OGOOOGD§ HHoOOOoGOE ©OOOOGO® OOoo® Stock visibility

  55. Slide 55: Defend Retail sales: Stock visibility

    Defend Retail sales Stock visibility ~30% ® G) Online customer

  56. Slide 56: Attack costs

  57. Slide 57: Attack costs

    Attack costs es) Retail manhours Fs) Retail deliveries Rent/concessions Catalogues and photography Case studies Technology Right sizing Negotiation Relevance

  58. Slide 58: Attack costs: Retail manhours

    Attack costs Fsy Retail manhours £6m) Saving RFID, stock on shop floor £2m Units scanned/hour Before 1,275

  59. Slide 59: Attack costs: Retail deliveries

    Attack costs e<® Retail deliveries £4m© New delivery schedule 2014 2015 2016 2017 110% Indexed from 2014 105% ™ of deliveries 100% oT 95% [ Retail sales \ J 90%

  60. Slide 60: Attack costs: 2017/18 rent/concessions

    Attack costs 2017/18 rent/concessions Before Gross rent (19 stores) £6.5m Capital contributions * Excludes any capital contributions or incentives After £4.9m* - 25% £5.0m

  61. Slide 61: Attack costs: 2017/18 rent/concessions

    Attack costs 2017/18 rent/concessions Before After* Gross rent (19 stores) £6.5m £4.9m - 25% Concessions -£80k -£250k £6.4m £4.6m -28% Net rent to sales 10.3% — 7.5% Average lease length Average profit 7 years 21% * Excludes any capital contributions or incentives

  62. Slide 62: Attack costs: 2018/19 rent/concessions

    Attack costs 2018/19 rent/concessions™ Before Gross rent (29 stores) £9.3m Capital contributions * Excludes any capital contributions or incentives After £7.3m*- 22% £7.0m

  63. Slide 63: Attack costs: 2018/19 rent/concessions

    Attack costs 2018/19 rent/concessions™ Before After* Gross rent (29 stores) £9.3m £7.3m - 22% Concessions -£90k -£560k £9.2m £6.7m -27% Net rent to sales 9.0% —> 6.5% Average lease length Average profit 5 years 21% * Excludes any capital contributions or incentives

  64. Slide 64: Attack costs: concession income

    Attack costs 2018/19 rent/concessions® 2017/18 2018/19 Concession income £8m £13m * Excludes any capital contributions or incentives

  65. Slide 65: Arndale concessions

    Attack costs EY Arndale concessions £800k) Bridal Barbers Restaurant/bar “oe —“_- b> Car New Costa Kids Activities

  66. Slide 66: Restaurant/bars open

    2 restaurant/bars open... ¢ Manchester Arndale ¢ Hull Appraised Profit % 12% Capex £2.7m IRR 28% 4 more planned... ¢ Sheffield Meadowhall ¢ Sheffield city centre ¢ Leeds Thorpe Park * Solihull

  67. Slide 67: Attack costs: Catalogues and photography

    Attack costs Catalogues and photography £7m© Saving Photography £3m Catalogue distribution £2m Reduced pages £2m

  68. Slide 68: Maximise potential online

  69. Slide 69: Maximise potential online: FP sales growth

    Maximise potential online 2017/18 FP sales growth (cumulative) -0.5% Online - 2.5% -4.5% - 6.5% - 8.5% ~ - 10.5% - 12.5% Feb 2017 Mar Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2018 12.5% 10.5% 8.5% 6.5% 45% 2.5% 0.5%

  70. Slide 70: Online development 2017/18

    Maximise potential online Online development 2017/18 Q2 Ql Nextpay Mobile site Next Unlimited Flowers website International mobile sites Intelligent recommendations Product personalisation - Phl Fast registration & checkout

  71. Slide 71: Online development 2018/19

    Maximise potential online Online development 2018/19...more to do

  72. Slide 72: Targeted marketing

    Maximise potential online Targeted marketing Digital marketing auction

  73. Slide 73: Targeted marketing

    All figures are illustrative Maximise potential online Targeted marketing 10m visitors/month

  74. Slide 74: Targeted marketing

    All figures are illustrative Maximise potential online Targeted marketing 1 O an MEDIUM 33% Propensity to buy

  75. Slide 75: Targeted marketing

    All figures are illustrative Maximise potential online Targeted marketing 10m 1.4m 33% MEDIUM 57%

  76. Slide 76: Targeted marketing

    All figures are illustrative Targeted marketing 10m 1 4 mM = £10,000 10% HIGH vy £7 & 33% MEDIUM 38% BIBS 57% £7 &

  77. Slide 77: Targeted marketing

    All figures are illustrative Maximise potential online £10,000 1.4m — £10,000 £7 & £11 & MEDIUM 38% EWEN MEDIUM VE £7 & £7 & £3 &

  78. Slide 78: Targeted marketing: uplift in return

    All figures are illustrative Maximise potential online £10,000 Uplift in return on 2 0) ens advertising spend + 1 % MEDIUM 48% Bes Uplift in IRR + 715% £3 &

  79. Slide 79: Online development 2018/19: more to do

    Maximise potential online Online development 2018/19...more to do [lsaaa@* ARa1e) Targeted marketing | @ 3 equal payments © 3 months 3 step credit © No interest Personalised promotions Product personalisation - Ph2

  80. Slide 80: Online development 2018/19: more to do

    Maximise potential online Online development 2018/19...more to do

  81. Slide 81: Product personalisation

    sae be RoR Turnover 602 PRODUCTS PERSONALISED Sot by [EZ £7 me ae 25 LNEWin | : in Stock (45 fo) Dove \V PERSONALISED canbe personaised \ pepantment i ASHLEY PEARCE , W Homenere 427 Fasnen “am, 2 \ Y > sener ssuers ame out > caTEGoRY ; hn ee OCA VNALALE bre OCA nal @ wre > covour Kk persenalue Perso

  82. Slide 82: Depot

    Depot Depot Depot

  83. Slide 83: Product personalisation Ph2

  84. Slide 84: • • •

    • • •

  85. Slide 85: Happy thoughts...

  86. Slide 86: Store Portfolio Stress Test

  87. Slide 87: Store Portfolio Stress Test

  88. Slide 88: Store Portfolio Stress Test

  89. Slide 89: Store Portfolio Stress Test

  90. Slide 90: Store Portfolio Stress Test

  91. Slide 91: Store Portfolio Stress Test

  92. Slide 92: Central Guidance 2018/19

  93. Slide 93: Central Guidance: profit performance

  94. Slide 94: Central Guidance: profit performance

  95. Slide 95: Central Guidance: profit performance

  96. Slide 96: Central Guidance: profit performance

  97. Slide 97: Central Guidance: profit performance

  98. Slide 98: Central Guidance 2018/19

  99. Slide 99: Next January 2018

  100. Slide 100: Slide 100

  101. Slide 101: Slide 101

Next — FY2018 Earnings Presentation on 6ix