Pictet AI & Automation ETF · AMEX:PBOT

Pictet AI & Automation ETF — Pictet Wealth Management — Investor Presentation (January 2022)

23 slides from Pictet AI & Automation ETF's investor presentation, January 2022

  1. Slide 1: OBA SS5 85005650 CASO OSASHAg obo aca anoanaao

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  2. Slide 2: Macroeconomic background

    Macroeconomic background

  3. Slide 3: 2021 | The year of risk-on markets

    2021 | The year of risk-on markets 130 S&P 500 index 18000 USD, rebased at USD 100 on MSCI USA value index / MSCI USA growth index 31.12.2020 Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 index 16000 125 14000 120 12000 115 10000 WCI composite container freight rate per 40-foot box 110 8000 WCI Shanghai to Los Angeles

  4. Slide 4: US / Euro area | The year of the soft landing for growth and inflation

    US / Euro area| The year of the soft landing for growth and inflation US US Euro area 16 Real GDP growth, 7 Headline inflation, y-o-y (%) Euro area % y-o-y US structural (2.1%) EA structural (1.7%) US potential growth (1.9%) 14 6 Euro-area potential growth (1.5%) 12 5 2022 2022 10 4 8 3 6 2 4 1 2 0

  5. Slide 5: United States | Cash-rich consumers, boding well for future spending

    United States | Cash-rich consumers, boding well for future spending 105% 3,0% 18% Excess deposits above the pre covid-19 trend line, as share of 2021 GDP (%) 100% 2,8% 16% 2,6% 95% 14% 2,4% 90% 12% 2,2% 85% 10% 2,0% 80% 8% 1,8% 75% 1,6% 6% 70% Household debt to GDP, quarterly (LHS) 1,4% 4% US perso

  6. Slide 6: China | Property deceleration remains the biggest headwind for 2022

    China| Property deceleration remains the biggest headwind for 2022 15 Change in credit impulse over 12 months 8,0 x China The U.S. Projected change in credit impulse: base scenario Projected change in credit impulse: upside scenario Projected change in credit impulse: downside scenario 7,0 10 6,0 5,

  7. Slide 7: 2022 | The unbundling begins as health concerns persist

    2022 | The unbundling begins as health concerns persist 9,0 12-month change, US vaccination rate Euro Area China Thousands USD trillion 8,0 100 % of population China Euro area US BOE 3 days 6 days 24 days 7,0 90 BOJ 90% 6,0 ECB 80 Fed 70 With those already 5,0 Developped countries central banks infe

  8. Slide 8: Inflation | More rapid wage growth is an upside risk, especially in the US

    Inflation | More rapid wage growth is an upside risk, especially in the US 8,0 6,0 y-o-y, % y-o-y, % US Atlanta Fed wage growth tracker -Median 7,0 Other Euro area negotiated wages 5,0 6,0 Rent & OER New and used cars 5,0 Hotels, airline fares & car rentals 4,0 Energy 4,0 3,0 3,0 2,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 1,0

  9. Slide 9: Asset Class Implications

    Asset Class Implications

  10. Slide 10: 2022 | Earnings growth to slow

    2022 | Earnings growth to slow 24% EBIT / sales EBITDA / sales S&P 500 STOXX 600 TOPIX 22% Earnings growth 10.0% 9.0% 6.5% 20% Buyback yield 2.5% 1.5% 0.5% 18% PE variation -5.4% 2.7% 2.3% 16% Price return 7.1% 13.2% 9.3% 14% Dividend yield 1.5% 2.5% 2.0% 12% Total return 8.6% 15.7% 11.3% 10% 8% Tar

  11. Slide 11: Real yields drive market multiples

    Real yields drive market multiples INFLATION HEDGES US 10 year real yield in % (inverted) MSCI USA forward P/E (right-hand scale) -1,5 24 May 2021 -1,0 22 -0,5 20 0,0 18 0,5 16 1,0 14 1,5 12 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 P/E: price Earning ratio Distribution of the S&P 500 P/E ratio g

  12. Slide 12: Real assets and pricing power companies as inflation hedges

    Real assets and pricing power companies as inflation hedges INFLATION HEDGES 50% 12% Corporate profits before tax, % yoy Global Private Real Estate Unit labour costs, % yoy (2 quarters average) 40% 10% 30% 8% Global stocks 20% 6% 10% 4% Global Private Real Estate Value Add 0% 2% -10% 0% Global Real

  13. Slide 13: Mainly a demand shock combined with a lack of investments

    CAPEX BENEFICIARIES Mainly a demand shock combined with a lack of investments AND EVENT-DRIVEN US retail sales ex autos, food and gas US imports ex food and autos Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia: CAPEX intentions (6-month average) 45 380 USD bn USD bn 70 360 40 65 340 35 320 60 300 30 55 280 50

  14. Slide 14: Post-pandemic green spending plans favour ESG investments

    CAPEX BENEFICIARIES Post-pandemic green spending plans favour ESG investments AND EVENT-DRIVEN USD bn 4 000 Net-zero by Net-zero stated Today's 2 2050 scenario policies scenario investment Number of Earths used 3 500 3 000 1,5 In less than eight months, 2 500 we reached “Earth Overshoot Day” where t

  15. Slide 15: Finding returns in an environment of income repression

    Finding returns in an environment of income repression INCOME SOLUTIONS % 10-year Treasury yield 5-year annualised nominal GDP growth Percent of S&P 500 companies with dividend yield greater than corporate yield 18 100 Percent of STOXX 600 companies with dividend yield greater than corporate yield 1

  16. Slide 16: Asia credit and rising stars as alternative sources of yield

    Asia credit and rising stars as alternative sources of yield INCOME SOLUTIONS US IG US HY Asia IG Asia HY US + EUR HY downgrades US + EUR HY upgrades 300 200 Spread per turn of net leverage 100 250 0 200 186 -100 150 -200 126 -300 100 70 -400 50 40 -500 0 -600 16 17 18 19 20 21 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020

  17. Slide 17: High quality cyclical currencies offer an attractive buffer

    High quality cyclical currencies offer an attractive buffer VOLATILITY INCOME PLAYS SOLUTIONS 20 Current account TWD Current account CHF (% of GDP, 2Q avg) 14 (% of GDP, 4Q avg) 15 NOK The bigger the bubble the higher is the 10-year 9 government interest rate 10 RUB SEK KRW ILS 5 ZAR AUD 4 MYR EUR J

  18. Slide 18: Uncertainty will bring volatility back in 2022

    Uncertainty will bring volatility back in 2022 VOLATILITY PLAYS VIX index 1-month moving average (left-hand scale) Recessions US large capitalisation valuation spreads % % 2-10 year US Treasury yield curve slope, inverted, 3-year lead 7 50 -2 Wide 6 Disparities -1 5 40 4 0 3 Standard Deviation 30 Cu

  19. Slide 19: Conclusion

    Conclusion

  20. Slide 20: Conclusions

    Conclusions CAPEX BENEFICIARIES INFLATION HEDGES AND EVENT-DRIVEN INCOME SOLUTIONS VOLATILITY PLAYS Pictet Wealth Management For illustrative purposes only. There can be no assurance that these targets or forecasts will be achieved 20

  21. Slide 21: Pictet

    >) PICTET

  22. Slide 22: Legal mentions

    Legal mentions STOXX Limited (”STOXX”) is the source of Stoxx 600 and of Euro Stoxx and the data comprised therein. STOXX has not been involved in any way in the creation of any reported information and does not give any warranty and excludes any liability whatsoever (whether in negligence or otherw

  23. Slide 23: Distributors and regulatory information

    Distributors: Banque Pictet & Cie SA, Route des Acacias 60, 1211 Geneva 73, Switzerland. Banque Pictet & Cie SA is established in Switzerland, exclusively licensed under Swiss Law and therefore subject to the supervision of the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA). This marketing com

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