BP plc · LSE:BP.
BP — Christof Ruhl slide pack
28 slides from BP's investor presentation, June 2011
Slide 1: 2010 – Energy Rebounds
BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011 bp.com/statisticalreview 2010 – Energy Rebounds Christof Rühl, Group Chief Economist © BP 2011
Slide 2: Outline
Outline • Introduction • Energy and the economy • Fuel by fuel • Conclusion BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011
Slide 3: The economy and energy demand
The economy and energy demand GDP Energy Annual change, % Annual change, % 10% 6% Renewables 10-year average Hydro 6% 4% Nuclear Coal 2% 2% Gas Oil -2% 0% World OECD Non-OECD -6% -2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2006 2008 2010 Source: includes data from Oxford Economics. GDP growth is expressed in
Slide 4: Recession and recovery
Recession and recovery Annual change, % Annual change, % 16% 6% GDP Energy 8% 4% 2010 0% 2% 2009 -8% 0% -16% -2% Trade Industry Energy GDP 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: includes data from Oxford Economics, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP
Slide 5: GDP and energy growth
GDP and energy growth OECD Non-OECD Annual change, % Annual change, % 5% 10% GDP Energy 3% 8% 1% 6% -1% 4% -3% 2% -5% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: includes data from Oxford Economics. BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011
Slide 6: Energy intensity
Energy intensity Energy intensity level Change in energy intensity Toe/$Million Toe/$Million per year 300 4 World Effect of increased OECD non-OECD weight 260 Non-OECD 2 220 0 180 -2 Net change 140 -4 Change in energy 100 -6 intensity 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 98-03 03-08 2009 2010 Source: inclu
Slide 7: Crude oil prices
Crude oil prices $/bbl 12-month moving average volatility, % 150 50% Dated Brent Annual averages 120 40% 90 30% Lowest since March 1995 60 20% 30 10% Dated Brent 0 0% 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Source: includes data from Platts. BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011
Slide 8: Oil consumption and production
Oil consumption and production Annual change, Mb/d 4 OPEC production 3 Non-OPEC production 2 Global consumption 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 Source: includes data from EIA. BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011
Slide 9: Oil consumption growth in 2010
Oil consumption growth in 2010 Largest changes Regional growth by fuel type Kb/d -200 0 200 400 600 800 Kb/d -100 0 100 200 300 400 China Asia Pacific US Russia N. America Brazil S&C America Saudi Arabia Singapore Eur. & Eurasia India Middle East Canada Gasoil Africa Gasoline France BP Statistical R
Slide 10: Oil production growth in 2010
Oil production growth in 2010 Decline Increase Kb/d -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 Norway UK Brazil Canada Saudi Arabia Non-OPEC Colombia FSU Qatar OPEC Russia Biofuels US China Nigeria Changes of more than 100 Kb/d. BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011
Slide 11: Oil inventories
Oil inventories OECD commercial oil stocks Oil in floating storage Mbbls Mbbls 2900 160 Products 05-09 Range 2010 2011 Crude 2800 120 2700 80 2600 40 2500 0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Source: includes data from Monthly Oil Data Services © OECD/International Energy Age
Slide 12: Cumulative demand and production
Cumulative demand and production Changes since 2005 Oil rig count and oil price Mb/d Index: Jan 2005 = 100 8 400 OPEC 6 Non-OPEC 300 4 Non- Iraq Brent price OECD OPEC NGLs 2 Biofuels 200 Non-OPEC 0 OPEC-11 100 OECD -2 Crude -4 0 Consumption Production Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Source: includes dat
Slide 13: Refining capacity and margins
Refining capacity and margins Refining margins Refining capacity $/bbl Mb/d 20 48 BP RMM OECD 10-yr. Av. Non-OECD 15 46 10 44 5 42 0 40 2005 2007 2009 2011 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 ytd Source: includes data from Parpinelli-Technon, Platts. BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011
Slide 14: Crude runs and light-heavy spreads
Crude runs and light-heavy spreads Crude runs and utilisation Light-heavy spreads Mb/d Utilisation, % $/bbl 45 90% 20 OECD Non-OECD LLS-Maya World (rhs) 10-yr. Av. 40 85% 15 35 80% 10 30 75% 5 25 70% 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2005 2007 2009 2011 ytd Source: includes data from ESAI, Platts. BP Statistica
Slide 15: Natural gas markets
Natural gas markets Consumption and production growth Prices 2010 vs 2009, Bcm $/Mmbtu 250 14 Other 12 200 Japan LNG 10 Asia Germany 150 8 Mid East 6 UK NBP 100 Europe US Henry Hub 4 50 FSU 2 N America 0 0 Consumption Production 2008 2009 2010 2011 ytd Source: includes data from Platts, BAFA. BP Sta
Slide 16: US natural gas market
US natural gas market Horizontal gas and oil drilling Gas in power generation Number of horizontal rigs Gas share in generation from coal and gas 800 40% 2008 Gas Oil 2009 2010 600 35% 400 30% 200 25% 0 20% Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Source: includes data from Smith Bits STATS, E
Slide 17: Global natural gas trade
Global natural gas trade Global gas trade growth LNG trade links Annual change, % 30% Four main importers, av. number of sources Pipeline LNG 9 20% 11 14 10% All exporters, av. number of markets 0% 5 2005 8 2009 -10% 9 2010 2009 2010 Source: includes data from Cedigaz, GIIGNL, CISStat. BP Statistica
Slide 18: OECD Europe natural gas market
OECD Europe natural gas market Prices Import growth $/Mmbtu Annual change, % 15 40% LNG Pipeline 30% 12 20% 9 10% 6 0% 3 -10% Av. German Import Price UK NBP 0 -20% 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 Source: includes data from Platts, BAFA, Monthly Gas Data Service © OECD/International Ener
Slide 19: Coal consumption and imports
Coal consumption and imports Consumption changes China’s imports Mtoe Mtes $/te 300 40 32 Price spread* (rhs) RoW RoW Indonesia 200 Australia EU 30 24 US 100 India 20 16 China 0 10 8 -100 -200 0 0 2006 2008 2010 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 Source: includes data from IHS CERA, IHS McCloskey. BP Statisti
Slide 20: Hydro and nuclear power consumption
Hydro and nuclear power consumption Hydro Nuclear Annual change, % Annual change, % 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 10-year average 2% 2% 0% 0% -2% -2% -4% -4% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011
Slide 21: CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions CO2 emissions growth 2010 CO2 intensity of energy Contributions to growth Tonnes of CO2 per toe 3.0 6% Non-OECD China 2.9 Coal 4% 2.8 World Other non- 2.7 2% OECD Gas OECD 2.6 OECD Oil 0% 2.5 By region By fuel 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011
Slide 22: Renewable energy
Renewable energy Share of primary energy Renewables growth Percent Contributions to growth 2.0% 25% Renewables in power Biofuels 20% 1.5% 15% 1.0% 10% Renewables in power 0.5% 5% Biofuels 0.0% 0% 2001 2004 2007 2010 2001 2004 2007 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011
Slide 23: Renewables in power
Renewables in power Share of power generation Share of power generation in 2010 Percent Percent 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% World OECD Denmark Non-OECD 4% Portugal New Zealand 2% Spain Philippines 0% Germany 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011
Slide 24: Renewables in Germany and Spain
Renewables in Germany and Spain Germany Spain Share of primary energy, % Power generation, TWh 6% 400 300 Oil 4% Gas Coal 200 Solar Biomass 2% Wind 100 Hydro Nuclear (1974-1983) Nuclear Renewables (2001-2010) 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Years after reaching 1% share Source: in
Slide 25: Renewable power growth
Renewable power growth Growth by region Renewables consumption Contributions to growth Index: 2000=100 18% 1800 China Other non-OECD OECD 15% 1500 Spain 12% 1200 China Germany 9% 900 6% 600 3% 300 0% 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Slide 26: 60 years of energy
60 years of energy World fuel shares World GDP, energy and emissions Percent Index: 1950=100 60% 1000 GDP Energy CO2 Oil 40% 700 Coal Gas Hydro 20% Nuclear 400 Renew 0% 100 1950 1970 1990 2010 1950 1970 1990 2010 Source: includes data from Oxford Economics; Etemad, Luciani, Bairoch, and Toutain, 199
Slide 27: 2010 – Energy Rebounds
60 years BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011 bp.com/statisticalreview 2010 – Energy Rebounds Q & A Christof Rühl © BP 2011
Slide 28: Thank you
Thank you 60 years BP Statistical Review © BP 2011