Companhia Energetica De Minas Gerais Sa · BMFBOVESPA:CMIG3
Companhia Energetica De Minas Gerais Sa — Energy Co of Minas Gerais — Corporate Update (June 2008)
38 slides from Companhia Energetica De Minas Gerais Sa's corporate update, Jun 18, 2008
Slide 1: Balance of supply and demand
Balance of supply and demand Cemig Geração e Transmissão Bernardo Afonso Salomão de Alvarenga Chief Trading Officer May 2008
Slide 2: Disclaimer
2/21 Disclaimer Some statements contained in this presentation are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the US Securities Law and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Such statements are forecasts which may different from final numbers, which are not under our control. For a discuss
Slide 3: Balance of supply and demand – National Grid
3/21 Balance of supply and demand – National Grid Brazilian grid system (S.I.N.) 90 Additional needs 80 Electricity market 70 60 50 40 Average GW 30 20 10 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 In operation and tendered SANTO ANTONIO JIRAU Assumptions: use of natural gas thermal plants in ac
Slide 4: National Grid structural surpluses and deficits
4/21 Balance of supply and demand – National Grid Brazilian Grid Sources: ONS/CCEE May 2008 study; EPE PDE , 2007–2016; and Cemig Research. Average MW Includes Petrobrás Committment Undertaking -12,000 -10,500 -9,000 -7,500 -6,000 -4,500 -3,000 -1,500 0 1,500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Slide 5: CEMIG GT Details of electricity supply
5/21 Balance of supply and demand – CEMIG GT Average MW Details of electricity supply 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 3.783 3.761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 1,500 1,000 500 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Own resources
Slide 6: CEMIG GT Details of electricity supply
6/21 Balance of supply and demand – CEMIG GT Average MW Details of electricity supply 4,500 651 712 712 4,000 380 381 481 507 260 19 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 3,783 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 1,500 1,000 500 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Bilateral purch
Slide 7: CEMIG GT Details of electricity supply
7/21 Balance of supply and demand – CEMIG GT Average MW Details of electricity supply 4,500 38 306 289 142 651 712 712 4,000 380 381 481 507 260 19 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 3,783 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 1,500 1,000 500 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Slide 8: CEMIG GT Details of electricity supply
8/21 Balance of supply and demand – CEMIG GT Average MW Details of electricity supply 4,500 38 306 289 142 651 712 712 4,000 380 381 481 507 260 19 199 398 3,500 584 3,000 2,500 2,000 3,783 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,562 3,363 1,500 3,177 1,000 500 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201
Slide 9: CEMIG GT Detailing of requirements
9/21 Balance of supply and demand – CEMIG GT Detailing of requirements Average MW 4,500 38 306 289 142 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 4,412 4,473 4,473 4,141 4,142 4,242 4,268 2,000 4,021 3,783 3,780 1,500 1,000 500 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Slide 10: CEMIG GT Detailing of requirements
10/21 Balance of supply and demand – CEMIG GT Detailing of requirements Average MW 4,500 38 306 289 142 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 4,300 4,361 4,361 4,029 4,030 4,130 4,156 2,000 3,909 3.671 1,500 1,000 500 0 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Pass
Slide 11: CEMIG GT Detailing of requirements
11/21 Balance of supply and demand – CEMIG GT Detailing of requirements Average MW 4,500 38 306 289 142 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,686 2,644 2,744 2,566 2,324 2,500 2,622 3,653 3,797 3,963 3,963 2,000 1,500 1,000 1,344 1,344 1,344 1,387 1,387 1,049 500 503 503 398 398 0 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112
Slide 12: CEMIG GT Detailing of requirements
12/21 Balance of supply and demand – CEMIG GT Detailing of requirements Average MW 4,500 38 306 289 142 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,686 2,644 2,744 2,566 3,379 3,565 2,324 3,598 2,500 2,622 3,653 2,000 1,500 1,000 1,344 1,344 1,344 1,387 1,387 584 199 398 1,049 500 503 503 398 398 0 112 112 112 112 112 112
Slide 13: CEMIG GT Detailing of requirements
13/21 Balance of supply and demand – CEMIG GT Detailing of requirements Average MW 4,500 38 306 289 142 4,000 154 481 830 948 3,500 1,498 2,370 2,307 2,583 3,000 2,325 2,411 2,205 2,500 2,648 1,814 1,796 2,000 2,155 1,073 1,500 1,195 1,016 1,000 1,344 1,344 1,344 1,387 1,387 584 199 398 1,049 500 50
Slide 14: CEMIG GT Detailing of requirements
14/21 Balance of supply and demand – CEMIG GT Detailing of requirements Average MW 4,500 38 306 289 142 4,000 154 52 481 3 830 948 90 3,500 1,498 106 2,370 2,307 254 2,583 3,000 2,322 2,360 2,500 2,648 2,115 680 1,708 1,542 2,000 884 884 1,500 684 1,475 189 311 1,000 332 1,344 1,344 1,344 1,387 1,38
Slide 15: CEMIG GT Detailing of requirements
15/21 Balance of supply and demand – CEMIG GT Detailing of requirements Average MW 4,500 38 306 289 142 4,000 154 52 481 3 830 948 90 3,500 1,498 106 2,370 2,307 254 2,583 3,000 2,322 2,360 2,500 2,648 2,115 680 1,708 1,542 2,000 884 884 1,500 684 1,475 189 311 1,000 332 1,344 1,344 1,344 1,387 1,38
Slide 16: CEMIG GT Probable renewals, detailing of requirements
16/21 Balance of supply and demand – CEMIG GT Probable renewals Detailing of requirements Average MW 4,500 38 306 289 142 4,000 154 52 481 3 830 948 90 3,500 1,498 106 2,370 2,307 254 2,583 3,000 2,322 2,360 2,500 2,648 2,115 680 1,708 1,542 2,000 884 884 1,500 684 1,475 189 311 1,000 332 1,344 1,34
Slide 17: Balance of supply and demand: National grid vs. Cemig GT
17/21 Balance of supply and demand National grid vs. Cemig GT Average MW Available for re-contracting / increase of market share Cemig GT Planned purchases National grid surpluses and deficits -12,000 -10,500 -9,000 -7,500 -6,000 -4,500 -3,000 -1,500 0 1,500 3,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Slide 18: Brazilian industrial production
18/21 Brazilian industrial production Physical output growth rate Industry 12 months to Feb 2008 Growth rate, % 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 9.5 8.7 8.2 8.1 7.5 7.4 6.9 6.5 5.7 3.1 2.8 2.8 2.4 0.9 MG ES RS PR AM SP BR PE SC RJ PA GO BA CE Source: IBGE
Slide 19: Portfolio management strategy
19/21 Portfolio management strategy Measured risks (profit@risk modelling) Long term view – sustainable cash flow Optimal allocation of maturities of contracts Formation of portfolio diversifying sectors, and prioritizing “AAA” clients Creative solutions for Cemig clients Present clients fully serve
Slide 20: A melhor energia do Brasil é também movida pela paixão
A MELHOR ENERGIA DO BRASIL É TAMBÉM MOVIDA PELA PAIXÃO. Quando o assunto é parceria com indústrias, a Cemig é assim: do jeito que o cliente precisa. Por isso, a Empresa não pára de conquistar clientes e reconhecimento. A Cemig acaba de receber o Prêmio Fiat Qualitas Awards Brasil, na categoria Forne
Slide 21: Investor Relations
21/21 Investor Relations ri@cemig.com.br Tel: (55-31) 3506-5024 Fax: (55-31) 3506-5025
Slide 22: Financial Forecasts – (Guidance) 2008–2012
Financial Forecasts – (Guidance) 2008 – 2012 Emílio Castelar P. Pereira Economic and Financial Planning Department May 2008
Slide 23: Disclaimer
2/17 Disclaimer All the statements in this presentation are ‘forecasts’ in the definition of the US Securities Laws, and are subject to risks and uncertainties. “Forecasts” are projections which could differ from the final numbers and are not under our control. For a discussion of the risks and unce
Slide 24: Guidance 2008-2012 Agenda
3/17 Guidance 2008-2012 Agenda · Assumptions · Results
Slide 25: Guidance 2008-2012 Agenda: Assumptions
4/17 Guidance 2008-2012 Agenda · Assumptions · Results
Slide 26: Guidance 2008-2012 Financial indicators
5/17 Guidance 2008-2012 Financial indicators 2008 2009-2012 Planned Planned Central Central Variable Febraban scenario, Febraban scenario Bank Bank average GDP 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.3% 4.2% N.A IGP-M 6.3% 6.6% 6.1% 4.4% 4.2% N.A IPCA 4.6% 4.9% 4.8% 4.4% 4.2% N.A Selic, average12.1% 12.2% ND 10.6% 10.5% N
Slide 27: Revenue assumptions: Generation market
6/17 Guidance Revenue assumptions 2008-2012 Generation Market - TWh 40 30 20 10 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Slide 28: Revenue assumptions: Generation prices
7/17 Guidance Revenue assumptions 2008-2012 GENERATION GENERATION PRICES – ANNUAL AVERAGES (R$/MWh) In 2008 and 2009 there 99 100 is no significant re- 100 negotiation of contracts, 94 with the exception of 95 substitution of sales by traders. 90 From 2010 onward there is greater variation in the 84
Slide 29: Revenue assumptions: Distribution
8/17 Guidance Revenue assumptions 2008-2012 DISTRIBUTION 9 Receipt of last portion (deferred) of Delta PB, over the period April 2008 to March 2009; 9 Xe factor is assumed to be 0.67%, as per administrative appeal at Aneel (still awaiting ruling); 9 Method of adjustments in cycle as per current meth
Slide 30: Revenue assumptions: Distribution market
9/17 Guidance Revenue assumptions 2008-2012 DISTRIBUTION MARKET Retail Market (Captive) - Total Electricity Distributed (Captive + TWh Free) - TWh 45 45 35 35 25 25 15 15 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Assumptions for market: macro-economics scenario and specific characteristics o
Slide 31: Revenue assumptions: Transmission revenue curve
10/17 Guidance Revenue assumptions 2008-2012 TRANSMISSION REVENUE CURVE 500 492 493 490 490 490 480 480 470 460 450 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Constant June 2008 R$ Million
Slide 32: Assumptions for costs: PMSO
11/17 Guidance Assumptions for costs 2008-2012 PMSO – Personnel, Material, Services and Others Distribution Driver: the ‘Reference Company’ for the Distribution company Transmission Business (Company: GT) Driver: regulatory ‘Reference Company’ Generation Business (Company GT) Driver: best market pra
Slide 33: Cost assumptions: Distribution average purchase price
12/17 Guidance Cost Assumptions 2008-2012 DISTRIBUTION AVERAGE PRICE FOR PURCHASE OF ELECTRICITY (R$/MWh) 105 In 2008 and 2009 the volume of existing 101 100 contracts (Itaipu, Bilateral 100 and Existing Energy 96 Auction contracts) is approx. 85% of the 95 distribution company’s purchasing requirem
Slide 34: Guidance 2008-2012 Agenda: Results
13/17 Guidance 2008-2012 Agenda · Assumptions · Results
Slide 35: Guidance EBITDA 2008-2012 Consolidated
14/17 Guidance EBITDA 2008-2012 CONSOLIDATED 5500 5000 Year Lower limit Upper limit 2008 4,005 4,360 4500 2009 3,844 4,207 2010 4,139 4,529 4000 2011 4,492 4,940 2012 4,730 5,228 3500 Consolidated including amounts for Holding companies 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 and affiliates Constant June 2008 R$ m
Slide 36: Guidance EBITDA 2008-2012 Strategic Plan
15/17 Guidance EBITDA 2008-2012 Strategic Plan “Growing, to add value” EBITDA 4400 4200 4000 3800 2008 2009 Guidance 2007 Guidance 2008 Value of Company Strategic point of inflection Strategic Plan Intertial growth Today 2035 Constant June 2008 R$ million
Slide 37: Guidance 2008-2012 EBITDA by business
16/17 Guidance 2008-2012 EBITDA Distribution Generation and Transmission 2000 2000 1800 1800 1600 1600 Lower Upper Lower Upper Year Year limit limit limit limit 1400 1400 2008 1,745 1,885 2008 1,725 1,875 2009 1,760 1,900 2009 1,470 1,620 1200 1200 2008 2009 2008 2009 Holdings 900 700 Lower Upper 50
Slide 38: Investor Relations
17/17 Investor Relations ri@cemig.com.br Tel: (55-31) 3506-5024 Fax: (55-31) 3506-5025 12. Market Announcement, Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais, May 26, 2008
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