Aksa Enerji Uretim A.s. · BIST:AKSEN
Aksa Enerji Uretim A.s — Q3 2018 Earnings Presentation
38 slides from Aksa Enerji Uretim A.s's earnings presentation, Mar 18, 2019
Slide 1: Transforming into a Global Energy Player
TRANSFORMING INTO A GLOBAL ENERGY PLAYER... 3Q 2018 EARNINGS PRESENTATION 18 MARCH 2019 – REVISED AND AUDITED RESULTS P O W E R B E Y O N D B O R D E R S
Slide 2: Turkish Market
TURKISH MARKET
Slide 3: Market Highlights – 9M2018 Key Figures
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS 9M2018 – Key Figures GENERATION BY FUEL TYPE Generation via natural gas 3% 1% decreased by 13 ppts YoY mostly Fuel-Oil 7% due to the increase in natural gas Lignite & Coal prices and the low spark spread. 22% 36% Natural gas Hydro On the other hand, generation Wind from coal & lign
Slide 4: Installed Capacity Changes by Fuel Type
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS Installed Capacity Changes by Fuel Type 3Q2018 – 3Q2017 CAPACITY CHANGES Fossil Renewable When new and MW 3.493 decommissioned capacities 4.000 are netted off, there is an 3.000 1.797 increase of 1.797 MW in coal 2.000 1.059 468 & lignite, 1.059 MW in 1.000 19 -638 hydro, 468 MW in
Slide 5: Generation & Consumption
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS Generation & Consumption Electricity generation increased by 1.6% and consumption by 1.7% YoY in 9M2018. GENERATION (GWh) CONSUMPTION (GWh) 221.059 217.518 221.017 217.358 9M18 9M 2017 9M18 9M 2017 3
Slide 6: Energy Prices – Significant increase after natural gas tariff hikes
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS Energy Prices – Significant increase after natural gas tariff hikes WEIGHTED AVERAGE ENERGY PRICE (TRY) 330 332 322 303 294* 280 The effect of natural gas price hikes 210 230 has a significant effect on the spot 185 195 181 187 178 161 180 market energy prices: 130 188 178 156 180
Slide 7: Natural Gas Prices
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS Natural Gas Prices BOTAŞ has increased its tariff in BOTAŞ NATURAL GAS TARIFF (TRY) August reflecting devaluation into the price, resulting in a 49% increase. 1800 1,700 1,700 400 Due to the continued devaluation of 1,550 1600 350 TRY, BOTAŞ once again increased its 303 332 322 pri
Slide 8: 2018 Developments
2018 DEVELOPMENTS
Slide 9: International Operations
“INTERNATIONAL : “OPERATIONS | - ¥
Slide 10: Ghana HFO Power Plant
Ghana HFO Power Plant • 223,5 MW guaranteed capacity has been working since August 2017. To provide this guaranteed capacity, 280 MW capacity was installed. • Additional engines to take the capacity to 370 MW were commissioned in November 2018 and thus, the guaranteed capacity rose to 332 MW. • Fuel
Slide 11: Madagascar HFO Power Plant
Madagascar HFO Power Plant 66 MW installed, 60 MW guaranteed capacity up and running since August 2017. Political instability and increased public tension since March 2018. First round of Presidential elections took place on 7 November 2018 and the second round will be held on December 19th. Madagas
Slide 12: Mali HFO Power Plant
Mali HFO Power Plant 40 MW installed, 30 MW guaranteed capacity up and running since September 2017. Negotiations to extend the duration and the capacity are ongoing. The process has been delayed due to presidential elections in Mali but negotiations are expected to resume by the end of 2018. 8 11
Slide 13: Turkish Operations
TURKISH TURKISHOPERATIONS OPERATIONS
Slide 14: Turkish Operations
Turkish Operations Spot market prices are highly correlated to the increase in gas prices, and they corrected to TRY 280 levels in 3Q18, representing 50% increase on average. The spot price increase improved the profitability of our coal fired power plant significantly. We sell about half of our pro
Slide 15: Financial & Operational Highlights 3Q 2018
FINANCIAL & OPERATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS 3Q 2018
Slide 16: 3Q 2018 Results – Sales Breakdown (Turkey+N.Cyprus)
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS 3Q 2018 Results Sales Breakdown (Turkey+N.Cyprus) 3Q 2017 4Q 2017 1Q 2018 2Q 2018 3Q 2018 9M 2017 9M 2018 MWh TRY/MWh MWh TRY/MWh MWh TRY/MWh MWh TRY/MWh MWh TRY/MWh MWh TRY/MWh MWh TRY/MWh Northern Cyprus 176,615 380 175,897 431 175,664 467 176,518 560 177,510 814 532,153 382 5
Slide 17: 3Q 2018 Results – Snap Shot
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS 3Q 2018 Results Snap Shot 3Q 2017 4Q 2017 1Q 2018 2Q 2018 3Q 2018 QoQ Change 9M 2017 9M 2018 YoY Change Installed Capacity 2,377 MW 2,236 MW 2,221 MW 2,221 MW 2,221 MW - 2,377 MW 2,221 MW -205 MW Sales Volume (GWh)* 4,204 4,310 3,778 3,226 4,068 26% 12,644 11,072 -13% Net Sales
Slide 18: Rapid improvement in Net Financial Debt/EBITDA ratio
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS 3Q 2018 Results Rapid improvement in Net Financial Debt/EBITDA ratio EBITDA NET FINANCIAL DEBT/EBITDA No TRY mn renewable full Africa 10 350 No 8,6 306 8,3 No renewable 300 Limited renewable full Africa renewable 8 full Africa 7,1 + Renewable full Africa 250 + 233 partial 217 5,
Slide 19: 3Q 2018 Results – Sales Breakdown
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS 3Q 2018 Results Sales Breakdown 3Q 2017 4Q 2017 1Q 2018 2Q 2018 3Q 2018 MWh TRY/MWh MWh TRY/MWh MWh TRY/MWh MWh TRY/MWh MWh TRY/MWh TURKISH MARKET 4,204,334 174 4,309,588 173 3,778,091 187 3,226,328 226 4,068,300 273 (Including N. Cyprus) AFRICAN 591,853 661 371,980 757 432,987
Slide 20: Regional EBITDA Breakdown
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS 3Q 2018 Results Regional EBITDA Breakdown REVENUES (TRY mn) Although 74% of the revenues 917 are generated from Turkey and TRNC, African power plants generated 74% of the EBITDA in 2.569 9M18 due to their high margin FX based sales. TURKEY+N.CYPRUS AFRICA EBITDA (TRY mn) 200 556
Slide 21: EBITDA Breakdown by Currency & Fuel
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS 3Q 2018 Results EBITDA Breakdown by Currency & Fuel EBITDA BY FX RATE Hard currency portion of the EBITDA constitutes 87% of Aksa 13% Energy’s EBITDA in 9M18. DOLLAR BASED Out of the 13% pure Turkish TRY BASED operations, EBITDA derived 87% from natural gas is only 3%. EBITDA BY
Slide 22: Quarterly EBITDA Growth
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS 3Q 2018 Results Quarterly EBITDA Growth EBITDA (TRY mn) EBITDA generated from 217 Africa increased by 28% QoQ in 3Q18. 163 168 170 4Q2017 1Q2018 2Q2018 3Q2018 AFRICA 16
Slide 23: Revised Financials
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Revised Financials • We have revised 2018 financials due to «unintentional» mistakes in the calculation of depreciation related to our African operations • The result of such revision is detailed in the following comparison table: (TRY mn) 1Q18 2Q2018 3Q18 9M18 Previous Revised
Slide 24: Consolidated Income Statement Highlights
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Financial Highlights 3Q 2018 Consolidated Income Statement NET SALES & EBITDA (TRY MN) EBITDA Margin 3.487 EBITDA Margin 3Q17: 18.3% 2.565 9M17: 12.9% 3Q18: 21.4% 9M18: 21.7% 1.428 952 756 306 332 174 Net Sales EBITDA Net Sales EBITDA 3Q2017 3Q2018 9M2017 9M2018 OPERATING INCOME
Slide 25: Net Financial Debt & Repayment Schedule
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Financial Highlights 3Q 2018 Net Financial Debt & Repayment Schedule NET FINANCIAL DEBT (TRY mn) 4.500 100% 86% 4.000 90% 76% 3.500 66% 80% 62% 62% 70% 3.000 60% 2.500 50% 2.000 40% 1.500 30% 1.000 1.781 2.742 3.086 2.777 3.996 20% 500 10% 0 0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 3Q18 5.2 6.2 7
Slide 26: Consolidated Income Statement
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Consolidated Income Statement (TRY) 31.12.2016 31.12.2017 1Q2018 2Q2018 3Q2018 30.09.2017 30.09.2018 Net sales 3.178.201.840 3.599.311.868 1.022.120.075 1.036.169.391 1.428.214.991 2.565.379.499 3.486.504.457 Cost of sales (2.907.157.616) (3.283.982.668) (883.103.228) (888.568.7
Slide 27: Consolidated Balance Sheet
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Consolidated Balance Sheet Assets (TRY mn) 31.12.2016 31.12.2017 31.03.2018 30.06.2018 30.09.2018 Cash and cash equivalents 219.364.855 59.577.791 36.898.264 18.972.149 24.475.183 Trade receivables net 219.696.945 759.563.092 989.145.792 1.212.602.744 1.671.280.832 Due from rela
Slide 28: Consolidated Statement of Cash Flow
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Consolidated Statement of Cash Flow (TRY mn) 31.12.2016 31.12.2017 31.03.2018 30.06.2018 30.09.2018 Net income (loss) before tax -367.623.980 290.120.538 48.309.727 84.701.220 129.992.852 Depreciation and amortisation 191.172.113 225.000.265 90.998.271 194.798.741 309.967.098 Ot
Slide 29: 2018 Guidance
2018 GUIDANCE
Slide 30: 2018 Guidance
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS 2018 GUIDANCE 2018 EBITDA BREAKDOWN 2018 EBITDA GUIDANCE (TRY) • SALES: 11.3 TWh • REVENUES: TRY 3.4 bn TURKEY+ N.CYPRUS • CAPEX*: TRY 120 mn 24% • EBITDA**: TRY 840 mn 840 642 AFRICA 76% 198 TURKEY+N.CYPRUS AFRICA TOTAL * Includes maintenance CAPEX in Turkey and Africa and the
Slide 31: 2018 Guidance – EBITDA Distribution
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS 2018 GUIDANCE In YE2018, Aksa Energy is EBITDA DISTRIBUTION (%) expected to generate 76% of its EBITDA from its African power plants while 24% from Turkey 24% 18% and Northern Cyprus (TRNC). As TRNC agreement is also a PPA in USD, 82% of 76% 82% Aksa Energy’s EBITDA is expected
Slide 32: Appendix
APPENDIX
Slide 33: Current Total 1,470 MW – Turkey and Northern Cyprus
4 assets under operation CURRENT across Turkey and Northern Cyprus TOTAL Bolu-Göynük 270 MW 1,470 MW Natural Gas (2 plants) 1,047 MW 71% Fuel-Oil (1 plant) 153 MW 11% Lignite (1 plant) 270 MW 18% Şanlıurfa Antalya 147 MW 900 MW Northern Cyprus 153 MW 25
Slide 34: Current Total 476 MW – Africa
3 assets under operation CURRENT across Africa TOTAL Aksa Energy’s all 3 power 476 MW plants are operational since 2017. Ghana HFO Power Plant became operational at the end of March 2017 with 192.5 MW, reached 280 MW in August same year and reached 370 MW in November 2018. Mali Mali HFO Power Plant
Slide 35: Operational Assets
Operational Assets Power Plant License Owner Fuel Type Installed Capacity (MW) % Northern Cyprus Aksa Cyprus Fuel-oil 153 Ghana Aksa Energy Fuel-oil 370 Mali Aksa Energy Fuel-oil 40 Madagascar Aksa Energy Fuel-oil 66 Total Fuel-Oil Fired Power Plants 629 32% Antalya NGCC Aksa Energy Natural Gas 900
Slide 36: Ongoing Investments
Ongoing Investments Power Plant Investment License Owner Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Completion Year Madagascar Greenfield Aksaf Power HFO 54 2021 Total 54 The above projects are utilising mostly existing equipments from Şırnak, Hakkari, Mardin 1, Mardin 2, Samsun, Van and Siirt power plants. 28
Slide 37: Contact Investor Relations
Contact Investor Relations Özlem McCann Director Investor Relations and Corporate Communications Ozlem.McCann@aksa.com.tr +90 216 681 1053 Rüzgarlıbahçe Mah. Özalp Çıkmazı No:10 Kavacık / Beykoz, Istanbul
Slide 38: Disclaimer
Disclaimer Aksa Energy has prepared this presentation for the sole purpose of providing information, which contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these s
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