BP plc · LSE:BP.
BP — Investor Presentation (2017)
34 slides from BP's investor presentation, Feb 11, 2017
Slide 1: BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition
BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition Bob Dudley Group chief executive bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats
Slide 2: BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition
BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition Spencer Dale Group chief economist bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats
Slide 3: Economic backdrop
Economic backdrop Contributions to GDP growth by factor Contributions to GDP growth by region % per annum % per annum 5% 5% Productivity OECD China Population India Africa 4% 4% Other 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1975-1995 1995-2015 2015-2035 1975-1995 1995-2015 2015-2035 2017 Energy Outlook 3 © BP p.l.c
Slide 4: Global energy demand
Global energy demand Energy consumption by region Growth in GDP and primary energy Billion toe % per annum 18 6% Energy intensity Other Thousands 16 5% GDP Africa Primary energy 14 Other non-OECD Asia 4% India 12 3% China 10 OECD 2% 8 1% 6 0% 4 -1% 2 -2% 0 -3% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
Slide 5: Fuel mix
Fuel mix Primary energy consumption by fuel Shares of primary energy Billion toe 18 50% Renewables* 16 Hydro Oil 14 Nuclear 40% Coal 12 Gas Coal 30% 10 Oil 8 Gas 20% 6 4 Renewables* 10% Hydro 2 Nuclear 0 0% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 *Renewables i
Slide 6: China's declining dependency on coal
China’s declining dependency on coal Coal consumption growth by region Shares of primary energy in China Billion toe 1.5 80% OECD Thousands Other non-OECD Asia 70% India Coal 1.0 China 60% Other Total 50% 0.5 40% 30% Non-fossil 0.0 20% Oil 10% Gas -0.5 0% 1965- 1975- 1985- 1995- 2005- 2015- 2025- 19
Slide 7: Fuel mix
Fuel mix Primary energy consumption by fuel Shares of primary energy Billion toe 18 50% Renewables* 16 Hydro Oil 14 Nuclear 40% Coal 12 Gas Coal 30% 10 Oil 8 Gas 20% 6 4 Renewables* 10% Hydro 2 Nuclear 0 0% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 *Renewables i
Slide 8: Renewables
Renewables Renewables as a share of power Shares of renewable power growth generation 40% 40% EU US 30% World 30% China 1995-2015 2015-2035 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 EU China US OECD India Africa Asia 2017 Energy Outlook 8 © BP p.l.c. 2017
Slide 9: Growth of the power sector
Growth of the power sector Power sector’s share of primary Electricity consumption per capita energy consumption MWh 50% 10 OECD 8 China 40% 6 Coal World 4 Gas 30% India 2 Renew. Africa Hydro 20% 0 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2017 Energy Outlook 9
Slide 10: Key features of the energy outlook
Key features of the energy outlook • Global energy demand continues to grow, driven by the burgeoning Asian middle class • The fuel mix gradually decarbonizes with non-fossil fuels providing almost half of the increase in primary energy • The global economy continues to electrify, with the power sec
Slide 11: Oil
Oil • How might electric cars and the broader mobility revolution affect oil demand? • How might the abundance of oil resources affect the behaviour of low-cost oil producers? 2017 Energy Outlook 11 © BP p.l.c. 2017
Slide 12: Oil demand
Oil demand Liquids demand Liquids demand growth Mb/d Mb/d, average annual growth 120 2.0 Power Power Buildings Industry Non-combusted 100 Buildings 1.5 Transport Total Industry 80 Non-combusted 1.0 60 Ships, trains & planes 0.5 40 Trucks Transport 0.0 20 Cars 0 -0.5 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 203
Slide 13: Growth of electric cars
Growth of electric cars The global car fleet: 2015-2035 Illustrative path for battery pack costs Billions of vehicles $/kWh 2.0 250 Electric cars Conventional cars 200 Battery pack costs* 1.5 Non-OECD OECD 1.0 150 Range of estimates of cost parity 100 between 0.5 electric and oil-powered 50 cars 0.0
Slide 14: Liquid fuel demand from cars
Liquid fuel demand from cars Decomposing changes in liquids demand from cars: 2015-2035 Mb/d 45 40 35 17 30 23 25 0.2 1.2 20 15 10 23 19 5 0 2015 Growth in Gains in fuel Switching to Switching to 2035 demand for travel efficiency natural gas electric vehicles vehicles 2017 Energy Outlook 14 © BP p.l
Slide 15: Mobility revolution
Mobility revolution • Electric cars: lead to a switch away from conventional cars • Autonomous vehicles: improve fuel efficiency via efficient driving • Car sharing: can amplify the effects of new-technology cars • Ride pooling: reduce total miles driven by pooling journeys 2017 Energy Outlook 15 ©
Slide 16: Mobility revolution scenarios
Mobility revolution scenarios Digital revolution: Electric revolution: Impact on oil demand in cars in 2035 Impact on oil demand in cars in 2035 Mb/d Mb/d 25 25 20 20 15 15 2017 Energy Outlook 16 © BP p.l.c. 2017
Slide 17: Oil
Oil • How might electric cars and the broader mobility revolution affect oil demand? • How might the abundance of oil resources affect the behaviour of low-cost oil producers? 2017 Energy Outlook 17 © BP p.l.c. 2017
Slide 18: Abundance of oil resources
Abundance of oil resources Estimates of technically recoverable Oil supply of lower-cost producers resources and cumulative oil demand Trillion barrels Mb/d Share 2.8 Europe 70 65% Low-cost producer’s share of global liquids 2.4 Asia 60 production (right axis) Africa 60% 2.0 50 US S&C America 1.6 40
Slide 19: Natural gas
Natural gas Gas supply growth: 2015-2035 Gas consumption by sector Bcf/d Bcf/d 140 500 Transport 120 Buildings Australia 400 Power 100 Russia Non-combusted 80 300 Industry Middle East Other Other 60 Africa 200 China 40 US 100 20 0 0 Shale Conventional Conventional 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025
Slide 20: Growth of LNG
Growth of LNG LNG supply LNG demand Bcf/d Bcf/d 80 80 Other Other 70 Russia 70 Middle East 60 Africa 60 S&C America United States Asia 50 Australia 50 Europe Qatar 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 1990 2005 2020 2035 1990 2005 2020 2035 2017 Energy Outlook 20 © BP p.l.c. 2017
Slide 21: LNG Trade
LNG Trade Net LNG exports and imports in 2035 (Bcf/d) North Russia America Europe 5 Other 17 Asia 22 Middle East 9 44 S&C Africa America 7 Australia 2 Exports Imports 17 17 2017 Energy Outlook 21 © BP p.l.c. 2017
Slide 22: Carbon emissions
Carbon emissions 2017 Energy Outlook 22 © BP p.l.c. 2017
Slide 23: Carbon emissions
Carbon emissions Contributions to slower growth Carbon emissions of carbon emissions % per annum Billion tonnes CO2 2.5% 40 IEA 450 2.0% GDP Base case 30 Energy 1.5% intensity 20 1.0% Fuel mix 10 0.5% 0.0% 0 1995-2015 2015-2035 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2017 Energy Outlook 23 © BP p.l.
Slide 24: Faster transition pathways
Faster transition pathways Carbon emissions Reductions in emissions versus base case Billion tonnes CO2 Billion tonnes CO2 in 2035 40 0 2 4 6 8 10 Power CCUS* Faster transition 30 Even faster transition Industry & Base case Buildings Faster transition Even faster transition Transport 20 1995 2005 20
Slide 25: Faster transition pathways
Faster transition pathways Carbon emissions Reductions in emissions versus base case Billion tonnes CO2 Billion tonnes CO2 in 2035 40 0 2 4 6 8 10 Power CCUS* Faster transition 30 Even faster transition Industry & Base case Buildings Faster transition Even faster transition Transport 20 1995 2005 20
Slide 26: Energy outlook under alternative transition pathways
Energy outlook under alternative transition pathways Annual demand growth by fuel The changing fuel mix Mtoe per annum % of primary energy 250 50% Non-fossil Oil Coal 200 Coal 40% Gas Non-fossil 150 Gas 100 Oil 30% 50 Total 0 20% -50 10% -100 -150 CO2 0% 1995- Base FT EFT 2015 Base FT EFT 2015 2035
Slide 27: Comparison with other low carbon scenarios
Comparison with other low carbon scenarios Even IHS Markit Faster MIT Greenpeace faster IEA 450 ‘Solar transition 2° Base ‘Revolution’ transition Efficiency’ Growth rate (% p.a.) 2015-35 Carbon emissions -0.7% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.8% -3.2% Total energy 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% -0.7% -0.1% Energy intensit
Slide 28: Comparison with other low carbon scenarios
Comparison with other low carbon scenarios Even IHS Markit Faster MIT Greenpeace faster IEA 450 ‘Solar transition 2° Base ‘Revolution’ transition Efficiency’ Growth rate (% p.a.) 2015-35 Carbon emissions -0.7% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.8% -3.2% Total energy 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% -0.7% -0.1% Energy intensit
Slide 29: Comparison with other low carbon scenarios
Comparison with other low carbon scenarios Even IHS Markit Faster MIT Greenpeace faster IEA 450 ‘Solar transition 2° Base ‘Revolution’ transition Efficiency’ Growth rate (% p.a.) 2015-35 Carbon emissions -0.7% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.8% -3.2% Total energy 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% -0.7% -0.1% Energy intensit
Slide 30: Comparison with other low carbon scenarios
Comparison with other low carbon scenarios Even IHS Markit Faster MIT Greenpeace faster IEA 450 ‘Solar transition 2° Base ‘Revolution’ transition Efficiency’ Growth rate (% p.a.) 2015-35 Carbon emissions -0.7% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.8% -3.2% Total energy 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% -0.7% -0.1% Energy intensit
Slide 31: Comparison with other low carbon scenarios
Comparison with other low carbon scenarios Even IHS Markit Faster MIT Greenpeace faster IEA 450 ‘Solar transition 2° Base ‘Revolution’ transition Efficiency’ Growth rate (% p.a.) 2015-35 Carbon emissions -0.7% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.8% -3.2% Total energy 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% -0.7% -0.1% Energy intensit
Slide 32: Comparison with other low carbon scenarios
Comparison with other low carbon scenarios Even IHS Markit Faster MIT Greenpeace faster IEA 450 ‘Solar transition 2° Base ‘Revolution’ transition Efficiency’ Growth rate (% p.a.) 2015-35 Carbon emissions -0.7% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.8% -3.2% Total energy 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% -0.7% -0.1% Energy intensit
Slide 33: Risks to gas demand
Risks to gas demand Global primary energy shares Natural gas growth 2015-2035 % of primary energy Mtoe per annum 40% 20 Increasing climate and Base case environmental policies 35% Slower gas case 15 Coal 30% Coal 25% 10 20% Gas 5 15% 10% 0 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Slower gas Base Fast
Slide 34: BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition
BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats