BP plc · LSE:BP.
BP — Investor Presentation (2017)
33 slides from BP's investor presentation, Feb 11, 2017
Slide 1: BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition
BP Energy Outlook = 2017 edition Za Spencer Dale Group chief economist bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats
Slide 2: Economic backdrop
Economic backdrop Contributions to GDP growth by factor % per annum 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% @ Productivity m@ Population 1975-1995 1995-2015 2017 Energy Outlook 2015-2035 % per annum 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% bp ie Contributions to GDP growth by region OECD =China_} “India mw Africa f Other — —— —_— — 1975-1995 1
Slide 3: Global energy demand
Global energy demand Energy consumption by region Billion toe wT Other 16 | mAfrica 14 | ™Other non-OECD Asia “India ‘ 12 + = China | 10 8 6 4 2 0 m OECD 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2017 Energy Outlook bp ie Growth in GDP and primary energy % per annum r mam Energy intensity ——-GDP 6% 5%
Slide 4: Fuel mix
Fuel mix Billion toe 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 *Renewables includes wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, and biofuels Primary energy consumption by fuel m Renewables* m Hydro Nuclear = Coal = Gas = Oil 2017 Energy Outlook 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% bp ie Shares of pri
Slide 5: China's declining dependency on coal
China’s declining dependency on coal
Slide 6: Fuel mix
Fuel mix Billion toe 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 *Renewables includes wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, and biofuels Primary energy consumption by fuel m Renewables* m Hydro Nuclear = Coal = Gas = Oil 2017 Energy Outlook 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% bp ie Shares of pri
Slide 7: Renewables
Renewables 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1995 2017 Energy Outlook Renewables as a share of power generation bp Shares of renewable power growth 40% - 30% + 1995-2015 m™ 2015-2035 20% + 10% + i om En US EU China OECD India Africa Asia © BP plc. 2017
Slide 8: Growth of the power sector
Gr 50% 40% 30% 20% owth of the power sector Power sector's share of primary energy consumption 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2017 Energy Outlook 0 bp if Electricity consumption per capita OECD China World India _- Africa <j 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 © BP plc. 2017
Slide 9: Key features of the energy outlook
Key features of the energy outlook
Slide 10: Oil
bp Oil e How might electric cars and the broader mobility revolution affect oil demand? e How might the abundance of oil resources affect the behaviour of low-cost oil producers? 2017 Energy Outlook 10 © BP plc. 2017
Slide 11: Oil demand
Oil demand Liquids demand Mb/d 120 100 Ships, trains & planes Trucks 20 Transport Cars 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Liquids includes oil, biofuels and derivatives of coal and natural gas 2017 Energy Outlook 1 bp if Liquids demand growth Mb/d, average annual growth om.) m Power = Buildings
Slide 12: Growth of electric cars
Growth of electric cars The global car fleet: 2015-2035 Billions of vehicles 2.0 7 . = Electric cars = Conventional cars 1.5 |} Non-OECD m OECD 1.0 05 0.0 By region By region bp ie Illustrative path for battery pack costs S/kWh 250 200 Battery pack costs* 150 Range of estimates of cost parity 100 ne
Slide 13: Liquid fuel demand from cars
bp Liquid fuel demand from cars i Decomposing changes in liquids demand from cars: 2015-2035 17 20 | 0.2 12 23 2015 Growth in Gains in fuel Switching to Switching to 2035 demand for travel efficiency natural gas electric vehicles vehicles 2017 Energy Outlook 13 © BP plc. 2017
Slide 14: Mobility revolution
bp ie Mobility revolution e Electric cars: lead to a switch away from conventional cars e Autonomous vehicles: improve fuel efficiency via efficient driving e Car sharing: can amplify the effects of new-technology cars e Ride pooling: reduce total miles driven by pooling journeys 2017 Energy Outlook
Slide 15: Mobility revolution scenarios
Mobility revolution scenarios
Slide 16: Oil
bp Oil e How might electric cars and the broader mobility revolution affect oil demand? e How might the abundance of oil resources affect the behaviour of low-cost oil producers? 2017 Energy Outlook 16 © BP plc. 2017
Slide 17: Abundance of oil resources
bp Abundance of oil resources i Estimates of technically recoverable Oil supply of lower-cost producers resources and cumulative oil demand Trillion barrels Mb/d Share 28 EAs 70" Fvewscost producer’s 85% 24 = 60 share of global liquids _ | production (right axis) 60% -— S&C America ath | US eer zs '
Slide 18: Natural gas
bp Natural gas i Gas supply growth: 2015-2035 Gas consumption by sector Bef/d Bef/d 140 - 500 - = Transport 120 F « Buildings 400 | Power 100 | Russia © Non-combusted \ 80 | Middle East 300 — mIndustry ' Other a 200 China US 100 0 Shale Conventional Conventional 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 20
Slide 19: Growth of LNG
Growth of LNG LNG supply Bef/d 80 - ' Other 70 + m Russia ! 60 mAfrica = United States 50 © Australia ! rT] f 40 Qatar 30 20 d 10 0 1990 2005 2020 2035 2017 Energy Outlook 19 bp i LNG demand Bef/d 80 - F Other 70 | = Middle East 60 = S&C America 5 m Asia = Europe 40 ' 30 20 10 0 1990 2005 2020 2035
Slide 20: LNG Trade
LNG Trade Net LNG exports bp and imports in 2035 (Bcf/d) North Russia America Europe + a Other ¢ ee ee oe 1 . 7 22 im > Be middie id ! | TN Ah East ‘ ) Ne - \ \ | \ \ | 44 Nay ~ S&C \ fri America \ Ung re ; ——=._1__ $+ -- Australia mw Exports \ 4 ty = lmports SL —paewt el 17 2017 Energy Outlook 20 ©
Slide 21: Carbon emissions
bp Carbon emissions 2017 Energy Outlook 24] © BP plc. 2017
Slide 22: Carbon emissions
bp Carbon emissions i Contributions to slower growth Carbon emissions of carbon emissions % per annum Billion tonnes CO, 2.5% 40 - —IEA 450 2.0% 30 | —Base case | Energy 1.5% intensity t 20 1.0% 10 f 0.5% f 0.0% 0 : 1995-2015 2015-2035 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2017 Energy Outlook 22 ©
Slide 23: Faster transition pathways
bp Faster transition pathways is Carbon emissions Reductions in emissions versus base case Billion tonnes CO, Billion tonnes CO, in 2035 40 7 0 2 4 6 8 10 Power 30. | CCUS* mu Faster transition : Industry & —Base case Buildings ——-Faster transition Transport 20 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 *Carbon captu
Slide 24: Faster transition pathways
bp Faster transition pathways is Carbon emissions Reductions in emissions versus base case Billion tonnes CO, Billion tonnes CO, in 2035 40 7 0 2 4 6 8 10 Power 30 cCUS* = Faster transition m Even faster transition Industry & —Base case Buildings ——-Faster transition —Even faster transition Transpor
Slide 25: Energy outlook under alternative transition pathways
Energy outlook under alternative transition pathways
Slide 26: Comparison with other low carbon scenarios
Comparison with other low carbon scenarios
Slide 27: Comparison with other low carbon scenarios
Comparison with other low carbon scenarios
Slide 28: Comparison with other low carbon scenarios
Comparison with other low carbon scenarios
Slide 29: Comparison with other low carbon scenarios
Comparison with other low carbon scenarios
Slide 30: Comparison with other low carbon scenarios
Comparison with other low carbon scenarios
Slide 31: Comparison with other low carbon scenarios
Comparison with other low carbon scenarios
Slide 32: Risks to gas demand
Risks to gas demand Global primary energy shares % of primary energy 40% + —Base case settee Slower gas case 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2017 Energy Outlook 32 bp ie Natural gas growth 2015-2035 Mtoe per annum 20 - Increasing climate and environmental policies Fas
Slide 33: BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition
BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition bp