NIQ Global Intelligence plc · NYSE:NIQ
NIQ Global Intelligence — CGA by NielsenIQ — Investor Presentation (October 2022)
22 slides from NIQ Global Intelligence's investor presentation, October 2022
Slide 1: CGA Business Confidence Survey, October 2022
CGA Business Confidence Survey , October 2022 an In association with Fourth |
Slide 2: Survey of over 16,000 sites
The CGA Business Confidence Survey (October) in association with Fourth surveys performance, forecasts and opinions based on senior leader research undertaken between 6th October to 20th October In total, leaders of multi-site operators across the hospitality sector taking the survey equated to over
Slide 3: Contents
Contents > Falling optimism with tough ti >» Supply chain & rising costs > Staff shortages ey Zt COA
Slide 4: Falling optimism with tough times ahead
Falling optimism with tough times ahead oh Fourth’ CGA)
Slide 5: Business leader confidence has fallen significantly since June
Business Leader confidence has fallen significantly since June, with low levels not seen since the worst periods during COVID Business leader confidence across the market and in own business 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Feb | Feb | Feb | Jul- | Nov | Feb |May |Aug-| Nov | Feb |May |Aug-| Nov) Feb |May) A
Slide 6: Low optimism despite L4L sales ahead of 2019
Low optimism is despite L4L sales performing ahead of 2019 in recent months, indicating underlying demand remains strong. Taking inflation into account however (+14% vs 2019), sales fall below 2019 in ‘real terms’ 30.0% Weekly LFL sales growth vs 2019 se AN I DL pe Ly — -10.0% & & ey ay gv & & ee i
Slide 7: Consumers remain highly engaged in eating and drinking out
CGA’s recent consumer survey shows many remain highly engaged in the eating & drinking out sector despite the cost-of-living crisis In the past month, how often have you been to restaurants, pubs, bars and other licensed venues? 92% 96% Of typical On Premise visitors* Of typical On Premise visitors*
Slide 8: Most operators in profit, but below pre-pandemic levels
8 in 10 business leader operators are currently in profit, albeit most are:now seeing profit below pre-pandemic levels Which of the following best describes your operations currently? (vs June 2022) +18pp -Bigp. F19Ap +3pp +6pp nd [= [=] 8% - Profit, greater than pre- Profit, in line with pre- Profi
Slide 9: Political and economic uncertainty is impacting confidence
Current political/economic uncertainty is impacting confidence however, particularly with concerns on the level and duration of business & household energy bill support from April 2023 Average energy bill forecast to hit £4,347 after Truss U-turn on support Move to reduce duration of help from two y
Slide 10: Leaders expect the picture to worsen in coming months
Given the uncertainty, leaders expect the picture to worsen in the coming months, with fewer in profit, and 13% expecting to be operating at a loss or unviable Considering both anticipated revenue and costs, how do you think your business will be performing by the end of 2022? Current performance 4
Slide 11: 2,200 net closures in recent months
We are already seeing the impact of uncertainty in the sector with 2,200 net closures in recent months, particularly in the independent sector. Without further support & clarity, more closures are to be expected Net change in no. of On Premise sites - Managed v Independents - June to September 2022
Slide 12: Slide 12
Slide 13: 96% of leaders seeing higher supply chain costs
96% of leaders are currently seeing higher costs in their supply chains, another important factor in explaining low business leader confidence Are you experiencing any of the following issues in your supply chain? (vs June 2022) + 1 4 I , 1 1 +19pp 1 4 I 4 I ! I -5pp I i Opp +3pp ! I i I ! -2pp ; I
Slide 14: Significant cost rises across multiple areas
Leaders are seeing significant cost rises across multiple areas, with almost 9 in 10 seeing significant rises in both food/drink and energy costs How have your supply chain costs changed in the last 12 months? (% Significant increases) Food/Drink Prices Energy Costs 22 O0% 86% 71% 86% October 2022 C
Slide 15: Headroom for price rises before demand is impacted
Significant price rises have already been passed onto consumers. How much more headroom do they have before price rises impact consumer demand? Business leader Business leader food menu prices drink menu prices % 11% +13% +11% in the last in the last 12 months 12 months ad Fourth’ CGA Business Confi
Slide 16: Staff Shortages
Staff Shortages
Slide 17: 11% of roles currently vacant
CGA Business Confidence Survey (October) in association with Fourth 11% of roles are currently vacant and open for application (on avg.) (vs 11% June 2022) og Fourth’
Slide 18: High vacancy rate remains despite significant pay increases
This high vacancy rate remains despite significant pay increases in the sector, indicating pay alone will not solve the challenge s ; ae J Fourth: CGA Business Confidence Survey (October) in association with Fourth
Slide 19: Causes of staffing shortfalls
A lack of access to EU workers, and difficulties finding UK jobseekers, are the main causes for staffing shortfalls in the sector What are main causes for this shortfall in your staffing levels? 34% 28% 25% [ a 51% 46% 41% Lack of access to EU Difficulty finding UK Insufficiently skilled workers job
Slide 20: Half of leaders plan to run shifts with fewer staff at Christmas
As a result of staff shortfalls, half of leaders plan to run shift this Christmas, while 1 in 8 even consider reducing their venue opening days - j If you’re expecting staff vacancies this Christmas, what acti y ke to mitigate it? Run shifts with fewer FoH staff 50% Run shifts with fewer BoH staff S
Slide 21: CGA Business Confidence Survey summary
CGA Business Confidence Survey October in association with Fourth ea Fourth. Business Leader confidence has fallen significantly since June, with low levels not seen since the worst periods during COVID Underlying consumer demand remains strong, despite the cost-ofliving crisis. Current sales are re
Slide 22: Keep up to date with the latest news and insights
Keep up to date with the latest news and insights from CGA: Sign up to the latest news Follow us on Twitter Stay connected on LinkedIn a Fourth Gefef.4 serio, Contact Us To learn more or speak to a member of the team, please get in touch: Ted Mulcauley Senior Insight Consultant, CGA by NielsenlIQ Te
CGA by NielsenIQ — Investor Presentation (October 2022) on 6ix