Slide 1: Nutrien Q4 and Full Year 2019 Results Presentation
Nutrien Q4 and Full Year 2019 Results Presentation February 18, 2020
Slide 2: Forward Looking Statements
Forward Looking Statements 2 Certain statements and other information included in this document, including within “Outlook and Guidance” constitute "forward-looking information" or "forward-looking statements" (collectively, "forward- looking statements") under applicable securities laws (such state
Slide 3: Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Results
Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Results February 18, 2020
Slide 4: 2019 Financial and Strategic Highlights
2019 Financial and Strategic Highlights 4 • 2019 net earnings from continuing operations was $992 million ($1.701 per share). 2019 adjusted net earnings was $2.17 per share and adjusted EBITDA was $4.0 billion. • Generated $2.2 billion in free cash flow in 2019, up 9 percent over last year, and $2.6
Slide 5: Nutrien Q4 2019: Adjusted EBITDA Comparison
Nutrien Q4 2019: Adjusted EBITDA1 Comparison 5 • Adjusted EBITDA decreased due to a temporary slowdown in global fertilizer demand, shortened North American spring and fall application seasons and lower net realized selling prices. • Retail adjusted EBITDA increased due to sales, service and supply
Slide 6: Nutrien 2019: Adjusted EBITDA Comparison
Nutrien 2019: Adjusted EBITDA1 Comparison 6 • Adjusted EBITDA was largely flat in a challenging 2019 crop input market as merger synergies and cost controls offset the impact of reduced fertilizer demand and crop input spending. • Retail adjusted EBITDA was similar to 2018 as increased sales, servic
Slide 7: Retail: Q4 2019 Gross Margin Bridge
Retail: Q4 2019 Gross Margin Bridge 7 Retail performed well with improved margins, higher EBITDA per US selling location and increased market share US$ Millions $662 $736 February 18, 2020 Source: Nutrien
Slide 8: Potash: Q4 2019 Gross Margin Bridge
Potash: Q4 2019 Gross Margin Bridge 8 A temporary slow down in global demand; offshore customers drew down inventory and delayed purchasing US$ Millions $366 $139 Q4'18 Net Selling Price Volumes COGS D&A in Q4'19 1 Gross Margin excl. D&A COGS Gross Margin 1. COGS variance does not include depreciati
Slide 9: Potash: Lower EBITDA on Temporary Slowdown in Global Demand, Weather and Trade Uncertainty
Potash: Lower EBITDA on Temporary Slowdown in 9 Global Demand, Weather and Trade Uncertainty -1.0 Mmt 2.9 Potash EBITDA 1.9 US$ Millions 2.2 Sales Volumes 1.2 Offshore Million Tonnes 0.7 0.7 N. America -62% Q4’18 Q4’19 $394 -17% $223 $186 Net Selling Price US$/MT Q4’18 Q4’19 $149 +22% Cash Cost of $
Slide 10: Nitrogen: Q4 2019 Gross Margin Bridge
Nitrogen: Q4 2019 Gross Margin Bridge 10 Nitrogen results impacted primarily by lower realized selling prices, influenced by falling global benchmarks US$ Millions -$7 $224 $107 Q4'18 Net Selling Price Volumes COGS 1 D&A in Q4'19 Gross Margin excl. D&A COGS Gross Margin 1. COGS variance does not inc
Slide 11: Nitrogen: EBITDA Impacted by Lower Realized Prices
Nitrogen: EBITDA Impacted by Lower Realized 11 Prices +7% 87% 94% Nitrogen EBITDA Ammonia US$ Millions Operating Rate1 Percent -19% Q4’18 Q4’19 $321 $259 -18% $257 Net Selling $212 Price US$/MT Q4’18 Q4’19 Ammonia +9% Controllable Cash $44 $48 Cost of Product Manufactured US$/MT Q4’18 Q4’19 Q4’18 Q4
Slide 12: Phosphate: Q4 2019 Gross Margin Bridge
Phosphate: Q4 2019 Gross Margin Bridge 12 Global phosphate markets pressured by higher inventory and ample supply US$ Millions $13 $6 Q4'18 Net Selling Price Volumes COGS 1 D&A in Q4'19 Gross Margin excl. D&A COGS Gross Margin 1. COGS variance does not include depreciation and amortization (D&A). Fe
Slide 13: Free Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow 13 Generating strong free cash flows and growing our dividend despite a challenging agricultural market in 2019 US$ Millions (unless otherwise noted) 2018 2019 3.7% Dividend Yield1 3.8% Dividend Yield1 625M Shares O/S2 583M Shares O/S2 $2,647 $2,157 $1,975 $837 Free Cash Flow Free Cas
Slide 14: Returns to Shareholders Through Dividends and Share Repurchases
Returns to Shareholders Through Dividends and 14 Share Repurchases Industry leading dividends and share repurchases1 Dividends Paid and Share Repurchases US$ Billions $5.70 Dividends Share Repurchases $1.97 +7% $2.95 $2.75 $1.02 $0.95 $3.73 $1.80 $1.93 2018 2019 24 Month Cumulative February 18, 2020
Slide 15: Nutrien Ag Solutions Digital Platform: Current Functionality
Nutrien Ag Solutions Digital Platform: 15 Current Functionality ✓ Purchasing of key crop protection Digital Progress (2019 N. America) products, order online or have your agronomist do it on your behalf Percent of Sales ✓ Pay bills online, look up past 11.5% (of Products Available for Online Purchas
Slide 16: Nutrien Ag Solutions Digital Platform: Planned Additions for 2020
Nutrien Ag Solutions Digital Platform: 16 Planned Additions for 2020 Crop Planning Tool create a tailor-made crop plan with your agronomist with the ability to place digital orders directly from the plan and apply for financing Nutrien Financial seamlessly apply for financing for crop input purchase
Slide 17: Outlook and Guidance
Outlook and Guidance February 18, 2020
Slide 18: Ag Fundamentals are Improving
Ag Fundamentals are Improving 18 Improved prospective grower margin for most crops in 2020 driven by higher trend yields and lower fertilizer costs (as a percentage of crop revenue) Key Crop Grower Cash Margins Local Currency Margin/Acre US Corn US Soybean US Wheat US Cotton CDN Canola Brazil Soybea
Slide 19: Global Crop Price Trends
3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 1,600 2,000 2,400 2,800 3,200 Aug-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Dec-18 1. Based on a 60kg sack of soybeans Jan-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Key Crop Prices Feb-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 May-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Palm Oil (MYR/tonne) Chic
Slide 20: US Agriculture & Related Product Exports to China
US Agriculture & Related Product Exports to China 20 Agricultural trade expected to rebound sharply with a trade policy resolution; ultimately goal is $40-$50B in exports. US Exports of Agriculture & Related Products to China US$ Billions $29 $29 $28 Soybeans Other Ag Products Related Products $25 $
Slide 21: US Corn & Soybean Ending Stocks
US Corn & Soybean Ending Stocks 21 Lower US corn and soybean production has led to a tightened supply/demand balance US Corn & Soybean Ending Stocks Million Bushels Corn Soybeans 2,500 1,000 2,000 800 1,500 600 1,000 400 500 200 0 0 February 18, 2020 Source: USDA
Slide 22: North American Major Crop Acreage Forecast
North American Major Crop Acreage Forecast 22 Historically low crop inventory and improving trade policy developments are expected to lead to strong acreage in 2020 Million Acres 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019E 2020F Corn 95.3 90.6 88.4 94.0 90.2 89.9 89.7 93.5 Soybeans 76.5 83.7 83.2 83.4 90.1
Slide 23: US Crop Input Expenditures
US Crop Input Expenditures 23 Expect US crop input spending to increase 5 percent supported by more than 14 million additional acres of key crop planting – or 6 percent increase US Crop Input Expenditures1 US$ Billions 55 50 45 +5% 40 35 30 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020F 1. Includes estimated seed, crop
Slide 24: Global Potash Deliveries by Region
Global Potash Deliveries by Region 24 We estimate global deliveries between 64-65 million tonnes in 2019 and project a strong rebound in 2020 to 66-68 million tonnes Million Tonnes KCl 20 15 10 5 0 16 17 18 19E 20F 16 17 18 19E 20F 16 17 18 19E 20F 16 17 18 19E 20F 16 17 18 19E 20F 16 17 18 19E 20F
Slide 25: Chinese Urea Export Profile
Chinese Urea Export Profile 25 Stable urea export prices and robust Indian demand supported strong Chinese exports; Meanwhile weakened Chinese RMB and lower coal prices reduced production costs Chinese Urea Fundamentals Price/Cost (US$/tonne) $350 13.8Mmt Poor margins, low operating rates and $300 c
Slide 26: US Urea Supply
US Urea Supply 26 Given the poor fall ammonia season and rebound in corn acreage expected, US urea imports need to outpace 2019 levels in the first half of 2020 US Urea Supply (July-December) Million Tonnes 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E Domestic Productio
Slide 27: Nutrien 2020 Annual Guidance
Nutrien 2020 Annual Guidance 27 2020 Guidance Ranges 1 (annual guidance except where noted) Low High Adjusted net earnings per share 1 $1.90 $2.60 Adjusted EBITDA (billions) $3.8 $4.3 Retail EBITDA (billions) $1.4 $1.5 Potash EBITDA (billions) $1.3 $1.5 Nitrogen EBITDA (billions) $1.2 $1.4 Phosphate
Slide 28: Thank You!
Thank You! For further information, visit: www.nutrien.com twitter.com/nutrienltd facebook.com/nutrienltd linkedin.com/company/nutrien youtube.com/nutrien