Gresham House Energy Storage Fund Plc GBP · LSE:GRID
Gresham House Energy Storage Fund Plc GBP — Gresham House — Non-Deal Roadshow (July 2025)
15 slides from Gresham House Energy Storage Fund Plc GBP's roadshow presentation, July 2025
Slide 1: Investing in a post US exceptionalism world
Investing in a post US exceptionalism world July 2025 Joe O'Carroll, CEO Derek Heffernan, Chief Investment Officer THIS IS AN ADVERTISEMENT
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer Please note that any target return noted in this material is not guaranteed. The Gresham House Global Multi-Asset Fund, Gresham House Thematic Multi-Asset Fund, Gresham House Global Equity Fund, Gresham House Global Small Company Warning Fund, and the Gresham House Euro Liquidity Fund are
Slide 3: 2025 mid-year market outlook
2025 mid-year market outlook
Slide 4: 2024 was all about US exceptionalism
2024 was all about US exceptionalism Market ran well ahead of fundamentals in the US Prices have moved well ahead of fundamentals in Plenty of signs the ‘US exceptionalism’ narrative has the US been taken to extremes 220 290 200 180 240 160 140 190 120 140 100 80 90 60 Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Fe
Slide 5: Our belief: US exceptionalism has peaked
Our belief: US exceptionalism has peaked We believe US exceptionalism peaked in December 2024 Current market cap (MSCI USA/MSCI World) 75% The two months post the election was a speculative frenzy that 70% we did not take part in 65% 60% Since then, our weak dollar and end of US exceptionalism
Slide 6: Exceptionalism narratives do not end well
Exceptionalism narratives do not end well Nikkei 225 index 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Source: Bloomberg 4 January 1980 to 30 December 2008 Exceptionalism narratives don’t end well. We hold very few US equities and no US bonds International investors have done very wel
Slide 7: Our belief: The dollar has entered a structural bear market
Our belief: The dollar has entered a structural bear market We believe the US dollar is in a bear market that will persist Dollar Index 115 There are both bottom-up and top-down reasons for this belief: 110 105 Top-down: 100 95 Trump is a weak dollar President. The market’s initial reaction 90 to
Slide 8: Our belief: Long duration developed market bonds are toast
Our belief: Long duration developed market bonds are toast 10 Year Bond Yields (10 Years Ago = 100) 1,000 800 600 400 200 - -200 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Sep-05 Jan-12 Jan-13 May-05 Sep-06 Jan-14 May-06 Sep-07 Jan-15 May-07 Sep-08 Jan-16 May-08 Sep-09 Jan-17 May-09 Sep-10 Jan-18 May
Slide 9: Our belief: The rest of the world is a coiled spring
Our belief: The rest of the world is a coiled spring “When its raining gold reach for bucket, not a thimble.” Warren Buffett Global markets ex. US gathering momentum 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Last Price SMAVG (5) SMAVG (10) SMAVG (20) Source: Bloomberg 31 December 1969 to 29 May 2025 9
Slide 10: What this means for our portfolios – look outside long duration bonds for protection
What this means for our portfolios – look outside long duration bonds for protection To provide protection within our multi-asset S&P 500 vs US Treasury Total Return (Rolling 3-year correlation) portfolios we are looking at options outside of 0.80 long duration government bonds: Gold and gold pr
Slide 11: What this means for our equity portfolios – small plus value
What this means for our equity portfolios – small plus value Growth/Value 120 With the US exceptionalism narrative over, mean investing in undervalued assets will return. Buying the biggest names has 110 historically been a poor strategy 100 Expensive market portions lag over the long term. From
Slide 12: Our Supercycle thesis remains alive and well
Our Supercycle thesis remains alive and well Can no longer rely on re-rating of assets Will need exposure to real economy Structurally higher interest rates Banks, financials, healthcare Infrastructure investment Industrials, materials commodities Structural energy shortages Energy, commodities Defe
Slide 13: Equity valuation fundamentals
Equity valuation fundamentals Multi-Asset Thematic Multi- Equity Fund Small Cap Fund Market Fund Asset Fund Dividends Dividend yield +12 months 4.4% 3.5% 4.1% 4.0% 2.3% Dividend cover 2.8x 2.8x 2.5x 2.5x 1.8x Dividend growth +12 months 6% 4% 6.5% 8% 3% Dividend growth in last 10 7% 7% 7.5% 9% 6% yea
Slide 14: Conclusion
Conclusion There are large pockets of the market where great expectations, and high valuations, will likely lead to disappointing future returns We are avoiding those areas, instead focusing on the pockets of the market that investors have neglected Diversification and focusing on cash flows,
Slide 15: Contact details
Contact details Ian Naughton John O’Driscoll Sean Breheny Patrick Lawless Kenny Downes Head of Client Relationship Sales & Business South of Ireland Business Chair of Client Relationship Management Development Manager Development Manager Investment Committee Manager i.naughton@greshamhouse.ie j.odri