NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. · NASDAQ:NWE

NorthWestern Energy — Investor Presentation (March 2016)

44 slides from NorthWestern Energy's investor presentation, March 2016

  1. Slide 1: Investor Update March 2016

    Madison River at Three Forks, MT Investor Update March 2016

  2. Slide 2: Forward Looking Statements

    Forward Looking Statements Company Information NorthWestern Corporation Forward Looking Statements dba: NorthWestern Energy During the course of this presentation, there will be forward- www.northwesternenergy.com looking statements within the meaning of the “safe harbor” Corporate Support Office pr

  3. Slide 3: About NorthWestern

    About NorthWestern South Dakota Operations Electric 62,800 customers 3,550 miles – transmission & distribution lines 440 MW nameplate owned power generation Natural Gas 45,700 customers 1,625 miles of transmission and distribution pipeline Montana Operations Beethoven Electric 359,000 customers 24,3

  4. Slide 4: NWE: An Investment for the Long Term

    NWE: An Investment for the Long Term • 100% Regulated electric & natural gas utility business Pure Electric • 100 year history of competitive customer rates, system reliability and customer satisfaction & Gas Utility • Solid economic indicators in service territory • Constructive regulatory relation

  5. Slide 5: A Diversified Electric and Gas Utility

    A Diversified Electric and Gas Utility Gross Margin in 2015: Gross Margin in 2015: Electric: $663M Montana: $729M Natural Gas: $178M South Dakota: $102M Nebraska: $ 10M Above data reflects full year 2015 results. Jurisdiction and service type based upon gross margin contribution. Average Customers i

  6. Slide 6: NorthWestern Energy Profile

    NorthWestern Energy Profile Financial and Company Statistics 6 See “Non-GAAP Financial Measure” slide in appendix for Net Debt and EBITDA reconciliation

  7. Slide 7: Solid Economic Indicators

    Solid Economic Indicators • Unemployment rates in all three of our states are meaningfully below National Average. • Customer growth rates historically exceed National Averages. Source: NorthWestern customer growth - 2008-2015 Forms 10-K Unemployment Rate: US Department of Labor via SNL Database 2/1

  8. Slide 8: Strong Utility Foundation

    Strong Utility Foundation Electric source: Edison Electric Institute Typical Bills and Average Rates Report, 1/1/16 Natural gas source: US EIA - Monthly residential supply and delivery rates as of 1/29/16 System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) NWE versus EEI System Reliability Quartiles

  9. Slide 9: Track Record of Delivering Results

    Track Record of Delivering Results Return on Equity within 9.5% - 11.0% band over the last 5 years. Annual dividend increases since emergence in 2004. 5 Year (2011-2015) Avg. Return on Equity: 10.4% 5 Year (2011-2015) CAGR Dividend Growth: 7.5% Current Dividend Yield Approximately 3.5% Notes: - ROE

  10. Slide 10: Investment for Our Customers' Benefit

    Investment for Our Customers’ Benefit Over the past 7 years we have been reintegrating our Montana energy supply portfolio and making additional investments across our entire service territory to enhance system safety, reliability and capacity. We have made these enhancements with minimal impact to

  11. Slide 11: Total Shareholder Return

    Total Shareholder Return • 15 member peer group: ALE (Allete), AVA (Avista), BKH (Black Hills), CNL (Cleco), EDE (Empire District Electric), EE (El Paso Electric), GXP (Great Plains), 11 IDA (IDA Corp), MGEE (Madison Gas & Electric), PNM (PNM Resources), POR (Portland Electric), STR (Questar), VVC (

  12. Slide 12: Strong Cash Flows

    Strong Cash Flows Components of Free Cash Flow While maintenance capex and total dividend payments have continued to grow since 2011 (16.6% and 14.8% CAGR respectively), Cash Flow from Operations has continued to outpace maintenance capex and averaged approximately $38 million of positive Free Cash

  13. Slide 13: Balance Sheet Strength and Liquidity

    Balance Sheet Strength and Liquidity 13

  14. Slide 14: 2016 Earnings Guidance

    2016 Earnings Guidance $3.10 - $3.30 $2.60$3.20-$3.40 - $2.75 Our 2016 guidance range of $3.20 - $3.40 per diluted share is based upon, but not limited to, the following major assumptions and expectations: • Normal weather in our electric and natural gas service territories; • Excludes any potential

  15. Slide 15: The Hydro Facilities

    The Hydro Facilities Overview of Hydro Facilities Hydro Asset Integration (1) • Montana Asset Optimization Study: With the acquisition of the hydros, we are modeling different scenarios in an attempt to optimize the integration and operation of our entire generation fleet and determine the most econ

  16. Slide 16: South Dakota Electric Operations

    South Dakota Electric Operations Beethoven Wind Project: In September 2015, we completed the purchase of the 80 MW Beethoven wind project, near Tripp, South Dakota for approximately $143 million with BayWa r.e. Wind LLC. The SDPUC granted approval of our request on placing the assets into rate base

  17. Slide 17: Natural Gas Reserves Opportunity

    Natural Gas Reserves Opportunity We continue to pursue opportunities to secure Total Annual Need low cost gas reserves for our customers. First ~6 Bcf annual • Three acquisitions totaling approximately $100 million production acquired since September 2010: Owned for ~$100M • 84.6 Bcf of natural gas

  18. Slide 18: Infrastructure Projects

    Infrastructure Projects • In Montana, our Distribution System Infrastructure Project (DSIP) and Transmission System Infrastructure Project (TSIP), both of which are currently in process, are to maintain a safe and reliable electric and natural gas distribution and transmission system. – The primary

  19. Slide 19: DGGS Update – Still waiting on FERC

    DGGS Update – Still waiting on FERC 19

  20. Slide 20: Capital Spending Forecast

    Capital Spending Forecast * Current estimated cumulative capital spending for 2016 through 2020 is $1.47 billion. We anticipate funding the capital projects with a combination of cash flows, aided by NOLs now anticipated to be available into 2020, and long-term debt. If other opportunities arise tha

  21. Slide 21: 'Clean' Owned & Contracted Supply Portfolio

    ‘Clean’ Owned & Contracted Supply Portfolio * Wind Owned delivered in 2015 includes a partial year of production from the Beethoven wind farm, which was acquired on September 25, 2015. Based upon 2015 delivered electric portfolio, approximately 54% of our total company owned and contracted supply is

  22. Slide 22: EPA's 2030 carbon target for Montana

    EPA’s 2030 carbon target for Montana NWE’s CO2 intensity* decreased by approximately 37% with the addition of the hydro facilities to our Montana generation portfolio. However EPA’s Clean Power Plan targets are statewide and not utility specific targets. CO2 Intensity* 37% * lbs CO2 per MWH produced

  23. Slide 23: EPA's Clean Power Plan (CPP)

    EPA’s Clean Power Plan (CPP) If the CPP rules were utility specific, NorthWestern would be in Source: www.eenews.net/interactive/clean_power_plan excellent shape…. but emission targets are established at a state level. • NorthWestern’s Montana electric supply portfolio has a low carbon emissions rat

  24. Slide 24: Other Significant Achievements in 2015

    Other Significant Achievements in 2015 Strong year for safety at NorthWestern • Fewest OSHA recordable events of any year. • One of the best years for Lost Time Incidents. • Tragic fatality of a respected senior lineman. Record best customer satisfaction scores with JD Power & Associates • Received

  25. Slide 25: Conclusion

    Conclusion Pure Electric and Gas Utility Best Practices Solid Utility Corporate Foundation Governance Attractive Strong Future Earnings and Growth Cash Flows Prospects 25

  26. Slide 26: Appendix

    Appendix 26

  27. Slide 27: Summary Financial Results (Qtr & Full Year)

    Summary Financial Results (Qtr 4 & Full Year) 27

  28. Slide 28: Weather (Fourth Quarter)

    Weather (Fourth Quarter) Maximum Temperature from Normal Minimum Temperature from Normal 28

  29. Slide 29: 2015 Weather

    2015 Weather Q1 2015 Q4 2015 NorthWestern service territory has significantly more heating degree-days than cooling degree- days. As a result, first and fourth quarter weather anomalies tend to be more impactful to earnings. We estimate the mild weather has unfavorably impacted our total gross margi

  30. Slide 30: Non-GAAP Adjusted Earnings (Fourth Quarter '15 vs '14)

    Non-GAAP Adjusted Earnings (Fourth Quarter ‘15 vs ’14) The non-GAAP measures presented in the table above are being shown to reflect significant items 30 that were not contemplated in our original guidance, however they should not be considered a substitute for financial results and measures determi

  31. Slide 31: Non-GAAP Adjusted Earnings (Full Year '15 vs '14)

    Non-GAAP Adjusted Earnings (Full Year ‘15 vs ’14) The non-GAAP measures presented in the table above are being shown to reflect significant items that were not contemplated in our original guidance, however they should not be considered a substitute for financial results and measures 31 determined o

  32. Slide 32: 2014 to 2015 Reconciliation (4th Qtr & Full Year)

    2014 to 2015 Reconciliation (4th Qtr & Full Year) 32

  33. Slide 33: Balance Sheet

    Balance Sheet Property plant & equipment (PP&E) increased by 8% as a result of the acquisition of the Beethoven wind project and continued investment to improve system safety, reliability and capacity. 55.4% Debt to capitalization slightly above our targeted 50-55% due to seasonality of cash flows,

  34. Slide 34: Cash Flow

    Cash Flow $89.8 million improvement in cash flow provided by operating activities was primarily due to higher net income after non-cash adjustments. 34

  35. Slide 35: Income Tax Reconciliation (Qtr & YTD)

    Income Tax Reconciliation (Qtr 4 & YTD) 35

  36. Slide 36: 2015 to 2016 EPS & Dividend Bridge

    2015 to 2016 EPS & Dividend Bridge Basic assumptions include, but are not limited to: • Normal weather in our electric and natural gas service territories; • Excludes any potential additional impact as a result of the FERC decision regarding revenue allocation at our Dave Gates Generating Station; •

  37. Slide 37: Big Stone and Neal Air Quality Projects

    Big Stone and Neal Air Quality Projects Big Stone Power Plant Neal Power Plant 37

  38. Slide 38: Meeting Montana Customer Demands

    Meeting Montana Customer Demands Light Load Hours (MWh's) 400,000 Conveyance of Kerr Dam to Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes 300,000 MWh's 200,000 100,000 - Hydro Contracted Owned Generation Light Load Demand Heavy Load Hours (MWh's) 500,000 Conveyance of Kerr Dam to Confederated Salish and K

  39. Slide 39: 2015 System Statistics

    2015 System Statistics (1) Note: Statistics above are as of 12/31/2015 (1) Nebraska is a natural gas only jurisdiction 39

  40. Slide 40: Strong Executive Team

    Strong Executive Team Robert C. Rowe President and Chief Executive Officer + Current position since August 2008 + Board member since August 2008. + 20-plus years energy and utility industry experience and is currently serving as Chairman of Westem Energy Institute (2012-2013) and Co-Chair of IEE, an

  41. Slide 41: Experienced & Engaged Board of Directors

    Experienced & Engaged Board of Directors 41

  42. Slide 42: Our Commissioners

    Our Commissioners Montana Public Service Commission Commissioners are elected in statewide elections from each of five districts. Chairperson is elected by fellow Commissioners. Commissioner term is 4 years, Chairperson term is 2years. Non Began Term Name Party Serving Ends Kirk Bushman R Jan-13 Jan

  43. Slide 43: Non-GAAP Financial Measures

    Non-GAAP Financial Measures The data presented above includes financial information prepared in accordance with GAAP, as well as another financial measure, Gross Margin, Free Cash Flows, Net Debt and EBITDA, but is considered a “Non-GAAP financial measure.” Generally, a Non-GAAP financial measure is

  44. Slide 44: Upetivering a

    Upetivering a bright future NorthWestern Energy

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