Wm Morrison Supermarkets — FY2013/14 Earnings Presentation
68 slides from Wm Morrison Supermarkets's earnings presentation, Mar 13, 2014
Slide 1: Preliminary Results
13 March 2014 Preliminary Results 52 weeks to 2 February 2014
Slide 2: Dalton Philips, Chief Executive
Dalton Philips Chief Executive
Slide 3: Trevor Strain, Chief Financial Officer
Trevor Strain Chief Financial Officer
Slide 4: Financial summary
Financial summary £m 2013/14 2012/13 Turnover 17,680 18,116 -2% Operating (loss)/ profit -95 949 -110% Net finance costs -82 -70 -17% (Loss)/ profit before tax -176 879 -120% Underlying profit before tax* 785 901 -13% Underlying earnings per share 25.2p 27.3p -8% Net debt 2,817 2,181 Dividend 13.0p
Slide 5: Turnover bridge
Turnover bridge £m 389 - 379 58 - 328 -180 18,116 17,788 17,680 2012/13 53rd week 2012/13 New stores Like-for-like Fuel Other 2013/14 rebased 2013/14: 52 weeks to 2 February 2014 2012/13: 53 weeks to 3 February 2013 4
Slide 6: Turnover bridge - sales by channel
Turnover bridge - sales by channel* £m 52 1 - 250 -43 13,674 13,424 13,434 2012/13 53rd week 2012/13 Core Convenience Online 2013/14 *excluding fuel rebased 2013/14: 52 weeks to 2 February 2014 2012/13: 53 weeks to 3 February 2013 5
Slide 7: Sales performance
Sales performance 2013/14 2012/13 Group like-for-like (ex-VAT): Sales ex-fuel -2.8% -2.1% Sales inc-fuel -3.6% -1.3% Customers -1.5% -2.6% Sales per customer* £22.36 £22.85 Sales per sq. ft.* £19.20 £20.24 *Includes convenience and supermarkets 2013/14: 52 weeks to 2 February 2014 2012/13: 53 weeks
Slide 8: Underlying profit bridge
Underlying profit bridge £m 27 138 -11 - 65 - 85 -120 901 785 2012/13* 53rd week New space Retail Cost Cost savings Margin 2013/14* like-for-like headwinds investment *Underlying profit before tax excluding IAS 19 pension interest, property disposals, non-recurring exceptional costs and new business
Slide 9: Non-recurring exceptional costs
Non-recurring exceptional costs £m Kiddicare 163 – original rationale for acquisition no longer valid – business no longer strategic: inadequate return – intention to sell in 2014/15 Property: pipeline 319 – investment appraisal criteria tightened: higher hurdle rate, lower margin expectations, chan
Slide 10: PBT bridge
PBT bridge 2013/14, £m 785 8 -176 -903 -66 Underlying profit Non-recurring New business Other Loss before tax before tax exceptional costs development 9
Slide 11: Underlying earnings
Underlying earnings £m 2013/14 2012/13 Reported profit before tax -176 879 Underlying adjustments: – non-recurring exceptional costs 903 - – property related transactions -9 1 – net pension interest cost 1 4 – new business development 66 17 Underlying profit before tax 785 901 -13% Underlying tax at
Slide 12: Operating profit
Operating profit 2013/14 2012/13 £m % £m % Turnover 17,680 - 18,116 - Gross profit 1,074 6.1% 1,206 6.7% Other operating income 81 0.5% 80 0.4% Administrative expenses -356 -2.0% -336 -1.9% Non-recurring exceptional costs -903 -5.1% - - Property disposals 9 0.1% -1 - Operating (loss)/ profit -95 -0.
Slide 13: Cash flow
Cash flow £m 2013/14 2012/13 Cash flow from operations 1,031 1,435 Proceeds from disposals 34 5 Capital expenditure -1,086 -1,016 Equity retirement -53 -514 New purchase of treasury shares - -65 Proceeds from issue of shares 28 42 Dividends -283 -270 -308 -807 Tax, interest & servicing of finance -3
Slide 14: Balance sheet
Balance sheet £m 2013/14 2012/13 Fixed assets and investments 9,299 9,185 Working capital -1104 -1,058 Provisions and tax -675 -696 Net pensions liability -11 -20 Net debt -2,817 -2,181 Net assets 4,692 5,230 Key metrics: Interest cover* 10.0x 14.4x Net debt/ EBITDA* 2.4 1.7 Gearing 60% 42% ROCE 8.4
Slide 15: Dalton Philips, Chief Executive
Dalton Philips Chief Executive
Slide 16: The grocery market is undergoing structural shifts requiring changes to our proposition
GROWTH CHANNELS The grocery market is undergoing structural shifts requiring changes to our proposition Annual growth 2013-2018 17% 14% 5% 2% Supermarkets Convenience Discounters Online Annual growth = compound annual growth rate SOURCE: IGD Research UK Channel forecasts 2013-2018 15
Slide 17: We're very encouraged by our customers' reaction to our new online service
GROWTH CHANNELS We’re very encouraged by our customers’ reaction to our new online service Morrisons.com virtual butcher • First delivery on 10th January 2014 • Already covering 20% of UK households • Delivering to customers in Warwickshire and Yorkshire • Addressing key customer needs: – great fres
Slide 18: We now have over 100 M locals and will add up to 100 stores this year
GROWTH CHANNELS We now have over 100 M locals in our store network and will add up to 100 stores this year • Opened 90 M locals in 2013/14 – over 500k customers per week – c.2,000 colleagues recruited and trained M local – infrastructure for 48% of the UK population (North West & South East) Conveni
Slide 19: We've consistently lost share to the discounters
PARADIGM SHIFT Whilst we’ve held our own with the big three, we’ve consistently lost share to the discounters Net switching (2013) 40 Net gains 20 £m 0 -20 Net losses -40 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 from big three (inc. online) to discounters Big three = Asda, Tesco & Sainsbury’s; Discounters = Aldi & Lidl SOURCE:
Slide 20: This is not cyclical; a fundamental shift in how consumers view discounters
PARADIGM SHIFT This is not cyclical; there has been a fundamental shift in how consumers view discounters Discounter quality perception now close to Discounter items per basket increasing traditional supermarkets towards traditional supermarkets 80% 22 Quality perception 70% 20 Average items 18 per
Slide 21: The rules of the game have changed: a new price norm
PARADIGM SHIFT The rules of the game have changed: there is a new price norm Comparative perception of discounters vs. traditional supermarkets on ranked drivers of store choice Price Ease Increasing importance Product choice Environment Service Expertise Discounters Big four supermarkets Big four s
Slide 22: When we narrow the price gap, customers shop with us
PARADIGM SHIFT When we narrow the price gap, customers evaluate the rest of our proposition and shop with us Switching to major discounter and price index 2013/14 103 12 More expensive vs. 102.5 start of year Net losses to major discounter (£m) 10 102 Relative price position 101.5 8 vs. start of yea
Slide 23: Responding by lowering prices and reinforcing our proposition
STRENGTHENING OUR CORE We are responding to this changing marketplace by lowering prices and reinforcing our proposition Comparative perception of discounters vs traditional supermarkets on ranked drivers Reinforcing our core proposition of store choice • Lower more prices on a permanent basis Price
Slide 24: A proven track record of achieving aggressive cost savings
STRENGTHENING OUR CORE We have a proven track record of achieving aggressive cost savings In-store productivity Systems improvement Indirect procurement savings savings savings £100m+ £100m+ £100m+ £85m £65m £63m £40m £32m £25m 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Slide 25: Where we can generate £1bn over the next three years
STRENGTHENING OUR CORE We’ve identified where we can generate £1bn over the next three years to strengthen our business Sources £m 11. Improved end-to-end operations 300 a. use vertical integration to optimise what we make where b. enhance end-to-end product flow and processes 22. Indirect procureme
Slide 26: Using our vertically integrated business model to optimise what we make where
STRENGTHENING OUR CORE 1a We will use our unique vertically integrated business model to optimise what we make where Salmon line, Grimsby • Expanded breadth and depth of capability over last three years – invested £200m – operating 18 sites – producing 60% of the fresh food we sell • Opportunity to
Slide 27: Enhancing end-to-end product flow and processes
STRENGTHENING OUR CORE 1b We will further enhance our end-to-end product flow and processes Improving checkouts Streamlining stock ordering • Streamline stock ordering processes – improve electronic order pad – roll out sales based ordering by 2017 • Improve stock flow – increased penetration of hig
Slide 28: Savings across indirect procurement and loss prevention
STRENGTHENING OUR CORE 2 We will realise further savings across indirect procurement and loss prevention Cosmetic security tagging • Indirect procurement (GNFR) – new centralised team and systems to access new areas of saving – save an additional £100m by 2016/17 • Loss prevention – system-enabled p
Slide 29: Focusing promotional investment and reducing sourcing costs
STRENGTHENING OUR CORE 3 We will focus our promotional investment and reduce sourcing costs Opportunity to cut tail of promotions • Systems tools enable us to: – optimise depth of discount versus £m, cumulative incremental sales benefit Promotions – realise appropriate supplier funding to cut – remo
Slide 30: Using the £1bn to strengthen our business
STRENGTHENING OUR CORE We will use the £1bn to strengthen our business over the next three years Invest and reinforce core proposition •1 Lower more prices on a permanent basis •2 Offer fewer, more impactful promotions •3 Make Own Brand a competitive advantage •4 Continue to improve product quality
Slide 31: We will lower more prices on a permanent basis
STRENGTHENING OUR CORE 1 We will lower more prices on a permanent basis Lowered prices on produce • Invest in lowering prices, permanently, across fresh Market Street categories – lower prices on key produce lines – stunning prices on meat and poultry • Be competitive on key branded products • Make
Slide 32: Fewer, more impactful promotions
STRENGTHENING OUR CORE 2 We will offer fewer, more impactful promotions Impactful promotions on top brands • Smarter, compelling promotional package: – cut unprofitable promotions – invest in customer relevant promotions; right product, right mechanic, right week – leverage manufacturing capability
Slide 33: Making Own Brand a competitive advantage
STRENGTHENING OUR CORE 3 We will make our Own Brand a competitive advantage by simplifying the range and improving value Own Brand share of sales, % • Build upon successful transition from 48.8 47.9 Own Label to Own Brand 47.0 • Reduce complexity and remove duplication to meet changed customer expec
Slide 34: Improve product quality and make stores easier to shop
STRENGTHENING OUR CORE 4&5 Continue to improve product quality, and make our stores even easier, more pleasant places to shop Improve soft fruit shelf life • Sustain strength in product quality – invest in chill chain to drive fresh quality – continue improvements to product flow and range simplific
Slide 35: We will launch our Morrisons card this year
STRENGTHENING OUR CORE 6 We will launch our Morrisons card this year From... To... • Limited knowledge of the relationship • Register Miles cards we have with customers • Test several Morrisons card • Untargeted activity propositions • 5.5 million unregistered Miles cards • Launch of proposition lat
Slide 36: Focused and consistent communication
STRENGTHENING OUR CORE 7 We will deliver focused and consistent communication so our customers know what we stand for Low prices Service and craft skills Winning promotions Growth in new channels 35
Slide 37: The right proposition for our business and customers
STRENGTHENING OUR CORE This is the right proposition for our business and for our customers in this new market •1 Low prices on a permanent basis •2 Fewer, more impactful promotions •3 A competitive Own Brand range •4 An overall range that’s simple, relevant and distinctive, with great quality fresh
Slide 38: Trevor Strain, Chief Financial Officer
Trevor Strain Chief Financial Officer
Slide 39: Financial objectives and principles
Financial objectives and principles Objectives • Grow underlying earnings • Generate cash • Optimise the return from our assets Balance sheet principles • Prudent accounting policies • Well-funded pension schemes • Predominantly freehold estate • Strong balance sheet with a strong investment grade c
Slide 40: Opportunities: reducing capital expenditure
Opportunities: reducing capital expenditure Capex Capex (£m) • Capex will reduce to c.£550m in 1,100 2014/15, c.£400m thereafter • Onerous property pipeline commitments of £100m in 2014/15 New space • Core 550 – 330k sq. ft. in 2014/15 – 300k sq. ft. to complete the pipeline 400 400 in 2015/16 – new
Slide 41: Opportunities: working capital
Opportunities: working capital • Leverage benefits from technology Depot stock cover (days) 14 • Supply chain financing launched in H1 8-11 • Reducing inventory: – improved visibility – range reduction – reduced stock in depots – operating model changes Morrisons Industry benchmark Supplier terms di
Slide 42: Opportunities: property review
Opportunities: property review • Commitment to overwhelmingly freehold estate – 80% freehold minimum in core stores • Realise value from: – development pipeline – distribution centre assets – investment properties Objective: c.£400-500m in 2014/15 c.£1bn over three years 41
Slide 43: Summary of free cash flow
Summary of free cash flow £m 2014/15 2013/14: increase in net debt -600 2014/15: net cash inflow guidance 300-400 Key drivers of improvement include: – reduced capex 500 – onerous commitments -100 – working capital improvements 200 – property disposals 400-500 2014/15 net debt guidance £2.4bn-£2.5bn
Slide 44: Dividend
Dividend • Progressive policy, moving towards 2x cover over time • Strong and improving cash cover • Dividend not less than 13.65p in 2014/15 43
Slide 45: Capital allocation framework
Capital allocation framework Investing in maintaining estate and 1 reducing cost Maintaining debt ratios to 2 support strong investment grade rating 3 Investing for profitable growth 4 Paying dividends in line with stated policy 5 Returning surplus capital to shareholders 44
Slide 46: 2014/15 P&L guidance
2014/15 P&L guidance £m 2013/14 underlying profit 785 Investment in proposition c.-300 Trading/ structural cost impact c.-200 Self-help 200 Core ‘on-going’ profit 460-510 New business development -65 One-off costs -70 Underlying profit before tax* 325-375 2015/16 • Saving £70m one-off costs • Reduct
Slide 47: Dalton Philips, Chief Executive
Dalton Philips Chief Executive
Slide 48: Summary
Summary • Focused on our core supermarkets – investing in our proposition • Growing aggressively in online and convenience • Removing all non-core distractions • Strengthening our financial position • Becoming truly fit for the future 47
Slide 49: Q&A
Q&A
Slide 50: Appendices
APPENDICES
Slide 51: Sales performance
Sales performance Group like-for-like (ex-VAT) 2013/14 2012/13 Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 H2 FY FY Sales ex-fuel -1.8% -1.4% -1.6% -2.4% -5.7% -4.1% -2.8% -2.1% Sales inc-fuel -2.6% -2.7% -2.6% -3.0% -6.4% -4.7% -3.6% -1.3% Customers -2.1% -0.5% -1.3% -1.8% -1.4% -1.5% -1.5% -2.6% Other metrics: – sales per cus
Slide 52: Big four supermarket losses to the discounters
Big four supermarket losses to the discounters in 2013/14 and Morrisons gains from big three Net switching (2013) 40 Net gains 20 0 £m -20 -40 -60 Net losses -80 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Morrisons from Big 3 (inc online) Morrisons to discounters Asda to discounters Tesco to discounters Sainsbury's to discounters
Slide 53: Finance costs
Finance costs £m 2013/14 2012/13 Interest payable -98 -80 Less: capitalised 17 15 -81 -65 Interest receivable 3 3 Other finance cost -5 -6 -83 -68 Net pensions expense -1 -4 Amortisation of bonds 2 2 Net finance cost -82 -70 2013/14: 52 weeks to 2 February 2014 2012/13: 53 weeks to 3 February 2013 5
Slide 54: Funding profile
Funding profile £m 2013/14 2012/13 Revolving credit facilities 1,350 1,350 Safeway sterling bonds 550 550 USPP 156 156 Sterling bond 800 800 Euro bond 585 - Bank loan 400 200 3,841 3,056 Undrawn RCF -775 -675 Net cash / other -249 -200 Net debt 2,817 2,181 1,350 156 400 585 400 400 150 200 200 2013
Slide 55: Capital expenditure – 2013/14
Capital expenditure – 2013/14 New space 20% Maintenance 30% IT infrastructure Manufacturing 18% Fresh Formats 8% Multi-channel 10% 9% Food online 5% Total expenditure £1.1bn 54
Slide 56: Return on capital employed (ROCE)
Return on capital employed (ROCE) 10.0% 10.1% 10.1% 9.6% 8.8% 8.4% 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 55
Slide 57: Depreciation
Depreciation £m 394 368 340 319 304 290 195 199 169 171 179 189 160 151 153 155 164 130 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 H1 H2 FY 56
Slide 58: Sales area and store numbers
Sales area and store numbers Stores Sales area (000’s sq. ft.) Number Estate at 3 February 2013 - supermarket 13,383 486 - convenience 38 12 13,421 498 New openings - supermarket 546 17 ` - convenience 219 90 765 107 Extensions & replacements 47 Estate at 2 February 2014 - supermarket 13,976 503 - c
Slide 59: Supplementary financials
Supplementary financials 2 February 2014 3 February 2013 Number of shareholders 48,347 48,082 Number of shares in issue (m) 2,335 2,346 Dividend 2013/14 2012/13 2011/12 Interim 3.84p 3.49p 3.17p Final 9.16p 8.31p 7.53p Total 13.0p 11.8p 10.7p Dividend dates – FY 2013/14 Ex dividend 7 May 2014 Record
Slide 60: 2014/15 guidance
2014/15 guidance 2014/2015 £m New space/ sales % c.3.0% New business development costs 65 Depreciation c.400 One-off non-recurring costs 70 Interest 85-90 Underlying profit 325-375 Capital expenditure 550 Net debt £2.4bn-£2.5bn Underlying tax rate 26.1% 59
Slide 61: Financial calendar
Financial calendar 2014/15 Date Q1 IMS 8 May 2014 AGM 5 June 2014 Half year end 3 August 2014 Interim results announcement 11 September 2014 Q3 IMS 6 November 2014 Full year end 1 February 2015 60
Slide 62: Morrisons six convictions
Morrisons six convictions Value is Food focused forever not generalist Experiential Skills not over purely just drills functional Multi-format GM – & multi- clicks not channel bricks 61
Slide 63: Morrisons values
Morrisons values MORRISONS A VALUE LED GROCER Britich born & bred We stand for VALUE WITHOUT COMPROMISE We're dedicated to MAKING GOOD FOOD CHEAP COC Ccersoave ver DLoVOL EL eesELEoDDe0L0I00000 We promige you QUALITY FRESH FOOD and CHEAP PRICES EVERYDAY More value £ for £ at Morrigong Thig ig how we
Slide 64: Awards
Awards MORRISONS re:fresh THE er GOLD > Fad AWARDS awards YOUNG PERSON OF THE YEAR WINNER WINNER | employer ofthe Year Sponsored by MorePeople NN Apprenticeships ca SupplyChain yy) Regional Awards 2012 20 13 INNOVATOR a vy Commended F THE YEAR 2013 GOLD Tommu’s AWARDS
Slide 65: Meet the team: Directors
Meet the team: Directors Sir Ian Gibson CBE Chairman Sir Ian joined the Group as Non-Executive Deputy Chairman in September 2007. He was appointed Chairman in March 2008. Sir Ian is Chair of the Board’s Nomination Committee and a member of its Remuneration Committee and Corporate Compliance and Resp
Slide 66: Meet the team: Directors
Meet the team: Directors Philip Cox CBE Senior Independent Director and Chair of Audit Committee Philip joined the Group as a Non-Executive Director in April 2009. He was appointed as the Senior Independent Director in May 2013. He is Chair of the Audit Committee and a member of the Nomination and R
Slide 67: Meet the team: Management Board
Meet the team: Management Board Dalton Philips Trevor Strain Chief Executive Chief Financial Officer See Board of Directors See Board of Directors Martyn Fletcher Casper Meijer Group Retail Director Group Trading Director Martyn became a member of the Management Board in October Casper joined Morris
Slide 68: Meet the team: Management Board
Meet the team: Management Board Nigel Robertson Terry Hartwell CEO Morrisons Non-food E-commerce Group Property Director Nigel became a member of the Management Board in March 2013 Terry was appointed to the Management Board in October 2010 and is responsible for Non-food E-commerce, including the a
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