Anglo American Plc · LSE:AAL

Anglo American — FY2011 Earnings Presentation

47 slides from Anglo American's earnings presentation, Feb 17, 2012

  1. Slide 1: Preliminary Results Year Ended 31 December 2011

    PRELIMINARY RESULTS YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2011 17 February 2012

  2. Slide 2: Cautionary Statement

    CAUTIONARY STATEMENT Disclaimer: This presentation has been prepared by Anglo American plc (“Anglo American”) and comprises the written materials/slides for a presentation concerning Anglo American. By attending this presentation and/or reviewing the slides you agree to be bound by the following con

  3. Slide 3: I. Operational Performance

    I. OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE CYNTHIA CARROLL

  4. Slide 4: Highlights

    HIGHLIGHTS A consistent strategy and simplified organisation delivering value • Record operating profit $11.1bn, underlying Operating Profit(1) ($bn) earnings $6.1bn and underlying EPS $5.06 • Final dividend of $0.46 per share, up 15% 11.1 9.6 9.3 8.6 • Asset optimisation and supply chain delivered

  5. Slide 5: Safety Performance

    SAFETY PERFORMANCE • Despite improvements since 2007, safety Fatalities performance in 2011 was disappointing 40 • 17 employees have lost their lives, of which 12 28 in Platinum 20 17 • 91% of operations without any loss of life 15 7 H2 • Exceptional performance in individual operations 10 H1 – Kolo

  6. Slide 6: Asset Optimisation and Supply Chain Target Exceeded by $1.2bn

    ASSET OPTIMISATION AND SUPPLY CHAIN TARGET EXCEEDED BY $1.2BN Supply Chain(1) ($m) Asset Optimisation(2) ($m) Core capex and operating profit benefits Core sustainable benefits +66% +28% $1bn target $1bn 1,185 1,978 target 1,548 713 2010 2011 2010 2011 (1) Excludes Other Mining and Industrial of $89

  7. Slide 7: Our Asset Optimisation Capability Is Now Fully Embedded Across the Business

    OUR ASSET OPTIMISATION CAPABILITY IS NOW FULLY EMBEDDED ACROSS THE BUSINESS Significant ramp up in Operational Reviews Delivering measurable performance improvements (ORs) across the Group Los Bronces Cumulative Incremental Copper Delivered (Kt) Platinum • Example: SAG Mill 2 4 De Beers discharge op

  8. Slide 8: Supply Chain Organisation Continues to Deliver Value and Security of Supply

    SUPPLY CHAIN ORGANISATION CONTINUES TO DELIVER VALUE AND SECURITY OF SUPPLY FOR KEY ITEMS Preferential equipment factory slots and reduced lead Relationships delivering security of supply alongside times revenue protection • Global Framework Agreements (GFA) delivering • Force majeure on explosives

  9. Slide 9: Project Execution Will Deliver Significant Contribution in 2012

    PROJECT EXECUTION WILL DELIVER SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION IN 2012 New production • First Production: Q3 2011 Iron Ore, Kolomela Kolomela (Mt) • Commercial Production: Dec 2011, 5 months ahead of commissioned schedule 1.5 5 months ahead of schedule • 4-5 Mt production in 2012; 9 Mt design capacity in 2

  10. Slide 10: Opportunities Seized to Create Value

    OPPORTUNITIES SEIZED TO CREATE VALUE De Beers acquisition Valuation summary for 24.5% of AA Sur PRC minority acquisition 2011 EV/EBITDA multiples $bn $/t resource $5.24 $5.8 $4.9 10.6x 8.4x 8.1x $3.0 Broker range $1.53 $1.6 Trading multiple Trading multiple De Beers AA Sur - AA Sur - AA Sur - Averag

  11. Slide 11: Iron Ore and Manganese

    IRON ORE AND MANGANESE • Record operating profit of $4,520m, up 23% driven Record Kumba export sales volumes by record achieved iron ore prices Sales Mt • Record export sales volumes from Kumba; CAGR+11.5% contributing to record operating profit • Jig plant continued to perform above its capacity fo

  12. Slide 12: Metallurgical Coal

    METALLURGICAL COAL • Record operating profit of $1,189m, up 52% Asset Optimisation driving strong and sustainable production growth • Record open cut performance in H2 recovered H1 loss from Queensland floods CAGR +9% – Production recovery measures initiated – A comprehensive rain immunisation progr

  13. Slide 13: Thermal Coal

    THERMAL COAL • Record operating profit of $1,230m, up 73% Step change in TFR(1) rail performance • Strong H2 recovery in export sales volumes, up TFR railings (Mt) +27% 44%, driven by: Thousands – Improved TFR rail performance 36.8 33.6 – Leverage of our efficient rail load out stations 29.3 29.0 •

  14. Slide 14: Copper

    COPPER • Operating profit of $2,461m, down 13% Los Bronces production increasing sharply as the expansion ramps up • Production impacted by weather related Los Bronces Production (1) (kt) disruptions, expected lower grades and a safety stoppage 290 236 238 • Los Bronces expansion delivered in Q4 221

  15. Slide 15: Nickel

    NICKEL • Operating profit of $57m, down 41% Barro Alto steadily progressing towards full production in 2013 • Barro Alto delivered on time, in line with capex Average ore smelted as a percentage of nameplate 66% guidance and a world class safety record capacity • Barro Alto delivered on specificatio

  16. Slide 16: Platinum

    PLATINUM • Operating profit of $890m, a 6% increase due to Significant ramp up in ounces from Mogalakwena higher realised prices, offsetting lower production Equivalent refined ounces Tonnes mined and cost inflation +63% • Production and costs impacted by safety stoppages. +9% 81 S54 DMR safety stop

  17. Slide 17: Diamonds

    DIAMONDS • Share of operating profit $659m, up 33% Record DTC prices drove earnings growth • Total sales increased 26% to $7.4bn Share of operating profit • Record rough diamond price increase of 29% from +33% 1st January 2011 to 31st December • In H1 production was impacted by excessive rainfall in

  18. Slide 18: II. Financials

    S AngloAmerican Il. FINANCIALS RENE MEDORI béed, yo im, SD EAHA HAAAAAAANY

  19. Slide 19: Financial Overview

    FINANCIAL OVERVIEW Underlying EPS ($) Key financials 2.14 4.13 5.06 2.58 ($bn) 2011 2010 change 2.48 2.29 EBITDA 13.3 12.0 11% 1.84 Operating profit 11.1 9.8 14% 1.23 Effective tax rate 28.3% 31.9% 0.91 Underlying earnings 6.1 5.0 23% Capex (1) 5.8 5.0 15% Net debt 1.4 7.4 (81%) H1 2009 H2 2009 H1 2

  20. Slide 20: Full Year Operating Profit Variances

    FULL YEAR OPERATING PROFIT VARIANCES $m 14,000 3,794 13,500 (149) 13,000 (585) (140) 12,500 12,000 H1 3,182 (1,249) 11,500 (39) 175 (460) 11,000 (15) 10,500 12,823 10,000 H2 612 9,500 11,095 9,000 9,763 8,500 8,000 (1) (2) (3) 2010 Price Exchange Inflation Volume Cash Non cash Associates Non core Ot

  21. Slide 21: Operating Profit Variances: Price (Base and Precious)

    OPERATING PROFIT VARIANCES: PRICE (BASE AND PRECIOUS) Platinum Price $/oz Rand/oz $m 2,000 24,000 Platinum Rand PGM basket 22,000 1,900 814 1,800 20,000 18,000 1,700 16,000 1,600 14,000 1,500 12,000 1,400 10,000 PGMs 342 FY 2010 achieved price: $1,611/oz H1 2011 achieved price: H2 2011 achieved pric

  22. Slide 22: Operating Profit Variances: Price (Bulks)

    OPERATING PROFIT VARIANCES: PRICE (BULKS) Iron Ore (Mt) (1) Metallurgical Coal (Mt) (2) Thermal Coal RSA (Mt) Export $m Realised $125/t $159/t $177/t $251/t $82/t $114/t Price 2,749 37.1 13.9 16.3 16.5 Export 36.1 Sales 12.3 2% 27% 1% Volume 33% 13% 40% Thermal coal 554 58% 18% 98% 49% 86% 55% 60% 4

  23. Slide 23: Operating Profit Variances: Volume

    OPERATING PROFIT VARIANCES: VOLUME Sales Performance – % Change vs. 2010 $m 17% KIO 94 IOB Platinum 29 3% 3% 19 1% Nickel 17 (2%) Metallurgical (172) Coal (11%) (1) (2) (3) (4) Platinum Iron Ore Copper Nickel Metallurgical Thermal Coal Coal Copper (76) Thermal (45) Coal (1) Sishen and Kolomela expor

  24. Slide 24: Above CPI Cash Cost Movements 2006 – 2011

    ABOVE CPI CASH COST MOVEMENTS 2006 – 2011 (1) Non controllable costs 11% Controllable costs 10% 4% 8% 3% 3% 5% Normalised: 5% 1% 7% 7% 5% 4% 2% (2%) (3%) (5%) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (1) 2006 to 2009 shown on a total Group basis, excluding AngloGold Ashanti, Mondi, Highveld Steel and Tongaat H

  25. Slide 25: Group Capex and Net Debt Overview

    GROUP CAPEX AND NET DEBT OVERVIEW Capital expenditure ($bn) Net debt ($bn) 5.8 0.1 FX Impact Opening net debt – 1 Jan 2011 7.4 5.0 0.9 Minas Rio Operating cash flows (11.5) Capital expenditure 5.8 0.5 +15% Cash tax paid 2.5 0.7 Los Bronces Net interest paid 0.5 0.9 0.4 Barro Alto Dividends paid to n

  26. Slide 26: III. Outlook

    III. OUTLOOK CYNTHIA CARROLL

  27. Slide 27: Well Positioned for the Long Term

    WELL POSITIONED FOR THE LONG TERM Unique portfolio composition Long term fundamentals remain robust 2011 EBITDA % Indexed intensity of use – China 1.1 2011e 1.0 0.9 Peer 1 Demand per GDP 0.8 0.7 Peer 2 0.6 0.5 Peer 3 Steel 0.4 Copper Autocat PGMs Peer 4 0.3 Diamonds 0.2 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

  28. Slide 28: Future Supply Will Be Impacted by Ongoing Challenges

    FUTURE SUPPLY WILL BE IMPACTED BY ONGOING CHALLENGES $ per t/yr Cu eq Copper supply - increasing capital intensity 25,000 Concentrate producers SxEw (solvent extraction / electro winning) Annual production scale kt/yr Cu 20,000 Projects under construction Projects probable 15,000 10,000, 5,000 300 1

  29. Slide 29: IV. Delivering Value Through Growth

    IV. DELIVERING VALUE THROUGH GROWTH

  30. Slide 30: Maintaining Growth Momentum

    MAINTAINING GROWTH MOMENTUM Advanced stage projects (Approved or Feasibility) Capital intensity, iron ore $/t 10 Minas-Rio Phase 1; Grosvenor Iron ore, Phase 1; Roman (Peace River Total project capex $bn metallurgical Pilbara(2) Investment Coal); Sishen Expansion Project Brazil(3) coal, (Greenfield

  31. Slide 31: Most Diversified and Balanced Growth Pipeline

    MOST DIVERSIFIED AND BALANCED GROWTH PIPELINE >100% Other >75% Late Cycle >50% Consumption Investment 2010 2014 Medium term Future options growth Investment Consumption Late Cycle Other De Beers assumed to be fully consolidated in 2014 forecast and thereafter. Transaction subject to regulatory and g

  32. Slide 32: Industry Leading Exploration: Replenishing Tier One Assets

    INDUSTRY LEADING EXPLORATION: REPLENISHING TIER ONE ASSETS Industry leading exploration Discovery of world leading Tier 1 deposits Copper discovery & acquisition costs ($/lb) 5.50 • Industry leading greenfield exploration expertise delivering value • Sakatti is a significant grass roots discovery of

  33. Slide 33: Summary

    AngloAmerican SUMMARY

  34. Slide 34: Delivering Real and Sustainable Value

    DELIVERING REAL AND SUSTAINABLE VALUE Productivity continues to improve Optimised and simplified portfolio Improving cost positions with optimisation initiatives 2011 Underlying Earnings % Export Export Hard Copper Nickel Platinum Longwall cutting hours – Grasstree 2% Iron Ore Coking Coal 100 +28% 1

  35. Slide 35: Q&A

    Q&A

  36. Slide 36: Appendix

    AngloAmerican APPENDIX

  37. Slide 37: Projects Approved in 2011

    PROJECTS APPROVED IN 2011 Project Country Commodity First Production Production GEMCO - Groote Eylandt Australia Manganese 2013 0.6 Mtpa Expansion Project (GEEP 2) Grosvenor Phase 1 Australia Met Coal 2013 5 Mtpa Cerrejón P500 Phase 1 Colombia Thermal Coal 2013 8 Mtpa Collahuasi Expansion Phase 2 Ch

  38. Slide 38: Analysis of Operating Profit

    ANALYSIS OF OPERATING PROFIT $m 2011 2010 Iron Ore and Manganese 4,520 3,681 Metallurgical Coal 1,189 780 Thermal Coal 1,230 710 Copper 2,461 2,817 Nickel 57 96 Platinum 890 837 Diamonds 659 495 Other Mining and Industrial 195 664 Exploration (121) (136) Corporate Activities and Unallocated Costs 15

  39. Slide 39: Analysis of Underlying Earnings

    ANALYSIS OF UNDERLYING EARNINGS $m 2011 2010 Iron Ore and Manganese 1,525 1,423 Metallurgical Coal 844 586 Thermal Coal 902 512 Copper 1,610 1,721 Nickel 23 75 Platinum 410 425 Diamonds 443 302 Other Mining and Industrial 107 521 Exploration (118) (128) Corporate Activities and Unallocated Costs 374

  40. Slide 40: Realised Commodity Prices

    REALISED COMMODITY PRICES 2011 2010 Iron ore (FOB RSA) - $/t 159 125 Metallurgical coal (FOB Australia) - $/t 249 176 Thermal coal (FOB South Africa) - $/t 114 82 Thermal coal (FOB Australia) - $/t 101 87 Copper – cents/lb 378 355 Nickel – cents/lb 1,015 986 Platinum - $/oz 1,707 1,611 PGM basket –

  41. Slide 41: Underlying Earnings Sensitivities

    UNDERLYING EARNINGS SENSITIVITIES Commodity/Currency Change in Price/Exchange $m Iron ore + $10/t 139 Metallurgical coal + $10/t 82 Thermal coal + $10/t 210 Copper + 10c/lb 93 Nickel + 10c/lb 5 Platinum + $100/oz 120 Rhodium + $100/oz 16 Palladium + $10/oz 7 ZAR / USD + every 10 c movement 65 AUD /

  42. Slide 42: Regional Analysis – Operating Profit

    REGIONAL ANALYSIS – OPERATING PROFIT $m 2011 2010 South Africa 6,059 5,001 Other Africa 501 - 501 South America 3,245 3,416 North America 256 14 Australia and Asia 1,318 911 Europe (284) (80) Total Operating Profit 11,095 9,763 42

  43. Slide 43: Capital Expenditure

    (1) CAPITAL EXPENDITURE $m 2011 2010 Iron Ore and Manganese 1,732 1,195 Metallurgical Coal 695 235 Thermal Coal 190 274 Copper 1,570 1,530 Nickel 398 525 Platinum 970 1,011 Other Mining and Industrial 152 206 Exploration 1 - Corporate Activities 56 18 Total Capital Expenditure 5,764 4,994 (1) Cash c

  44. Slide 44: Operating Profit Variances: Exchange

    OPERATING PROFIT VARIANCES: EXCHANGE ZAR/US$ Exchange Rate $m 9.0 2010 VS 2011 1% Strengthening Other(1) 3 8.5 8.0 ZAR 92 7.5 7.0 6.5 H1 2010 Avg: R7.53 H2 2010 Avg: R7.11 H1 2011 Avg: R6.90 H2 2011 Avg: R7.63 6.0 Jan 2010 Jul 2010 Jan 2011 Jul 2011 Jan 2012 AUD (216) AUD/US$ Exchange Rate 1.3 2010

  45. Slide 45: Debt Evolution and Gearing

    DEBT EVOLUTION AND GEARING Evolution of Debt ($bn) and Gearing Undrawn committed facilities and cash 11.3 11.3 • The Group had over $20 bn of undrawn committed facilities and cash at 31 December 2011 9.0 • In February 2011, the Group retired a $2.25 bn revolving credit facility maturing in June 2011

  46. Slide 46: Resource Growth

    RESOURCE GROWTH Metallurgical Coal Minas-Rio Resources Resources Tonnes (Mt) Tonnes (Mt) +97% +363% 3,627 5,771 1,838 1,246 2005 2011 2007 2011 Project pipeline Project pipeline Operations & approved projects Operations Operations Projects Projects & Approved Projects & Approved Projects Measured 47

  47. Slide 47: Anglo American Sur Option Agreement

    ANGLO AMERICAN SUR OPTION AGREEMENT Option exercise price for 24.5% of AA Sur Valuation summary for 24.5% of AA Sur January 2012 $bn Exercise price Average earnings (profit after tax) 2007 - 2011 0.9 $2.8 Average earnings at a multiple of 8 times 7.4 Mitsui valuation (2) $4.9 Retained Income 2.7 Mit

Anglo American — FY2011 Earnings Presentation on 6ix