Munchener Ruckversicherungs-gesellschaft Ag · XETR:MUV2

Munchener Ruckversicherungs-gesellschaft — Munich Re — Munich Re media conference, 11 January 2005

22 slides from Munchener Ruckversicherungs-gesellschaft's conference presentation, Jan 11, 2005

1. Slide 1: Megacities - Megarisks

   Megacities - Megarisks Munich Re media conference 11 January 2005

2. Slide 2: Agenda

   Agenda The climate in megacities 3 Prof. Peter Höppe Megacities - Megarisks 10 Dr. Anselm Smolka 2

3. Slide 3: The climate in megacities

   The climate in megacities Impact on the health of the population and on life and health insurance Prof. Peter Höppe Megacities - Megarisks 3

4. Slide 4: What features characterise an urban climate?

   The climate in megacities What features characterise an urban climate? ƒ Higher air temperatures (above all evenings and nights) ƒ Lower air speeds ƒ Higher risk of torrential rain in the lee area of the city ƒ Greater risk of thunderstorms (lightning strokes) ƒ Increased air pollution (ozone, dust,

5. Slide 5: Heat island Shanghai: Centre 6°C warmer than the surrounding region

   The climate in megacities Heat island Shanghai: Centre 6°C warmer than the surrounding region Satellite image in visible range Thermal image Temperature (July 1996) 35°C 34°C 33°C 32°C 31°C 30°C 29°C Source: GEOSPACE Verlag, Salzburg Source: Zhou and Ding, 1998 Megacities - Megarisks 11.01.2005 5

6. Slide 6: Significant increase in deaths in Paris during the heat wave in the summer of 2003

   The climate in megacities Significant increase in deaths in Paris during the heat wave in the summer of 2003 Deaths in hospitals Deaths reported by the rescue services Daily Minimum Daily Maximum Source: Climate Change Impacts in Europe: Today and in the Future, European Environmental Agency, Copenh

7. Slide 7: Ozone values: In Los Angeles almost five times higher than in Munich

   The climate in megacities Ozone values: In Los Angeles almost five times higher than in Munich Ozone (peak values) Particles (TSP) Los Angeles 1160µg/m³ Beijing 377µg/m³ Mexico City 860µg/m³ Mexico City 279µg/m³ Tokyo 760µg/m³ Mumbai 240µg/m³ Melbourne 460µg/m³ Sydney 54µg/m³ Munich 270µg/m³ Munich

8. Slide 8: Urban climate - The positive effects

   The climate in megacities Urban climate - The positive effects Monthly number of beer garden days with temperatures of at least 20°C at 9 p.m. in the city centre and in the suburbs of Munich 30 25 20 15 10 5 Inner city 0 Suburbs May June July August September Source: Bründl and Höppe, Arch. Met. Geo

9. Slide 9: Climate in megacities: Threats to health

   The climate in megacities Climate in megacities: Threats to health ƒ Increased heat burden and higher mortality risks for megacity dwellers ƒ Megacities amplify the effects of global climate change ƒ Air hygiene situation with increased ozone and particle concentration can contribute to respiratory

10. Slide 10: Megacities - Megarisks

    Megacities - Megarisks Dr. Anselm Smolka Megacities - Megarisks 10

11. Slide 11: Major catastrophes in conurbations

    Megacities - Megarisks Major catastrophes in conurbations ƒ Lisbon earthquake in 1755 – The first global catastrophe ƒ San Francisco earthquake in 1906 – The greatest loss in the history of Munich Re measured against premium volume ƒ Kobe earthquake in1995 – Costliest natural catastrophe loss to dat

12. Slide 12: Los Angeles: The growing threat

    Megacities - Megarisks Los Angeles: The growing threat Los Angeles 2000 1950 1900 Earthquake risk high very high Megacities - Megarisks 11.01.2005 12

13. Slide 13: Particular challenge for insurers: The danger of accumulation

    Megacities - Megarisks Particular challenge for insurers: The danger of accumulation ƒ Virtually all classes of insurance are affected: ƒ Life, health and personal accident ƒ Liability (e.g. industrial lines) ƒ Property insurance (private, commercial, industrial lines; property losses and business i

14. Slide 14: Unavoidable need to restrict (and prevent) risks

    Megacities - Megarisks Unavoidable need to restrict (and prevent) risks Approaches to solving or mitigating the accumulation problem: ƒ Risk evaluation ƒ Assessment using appropriate scenarios and tools (computer models) ƒ Risk limitation ƒ Limits of liability ƒ Exclusion of risks (certain hazards,

15. Slide 15: Analysis: What events can affect megacities?

    Megacities - Megarisks Analysis: What events can affect megacities? First step: Identify potential occurrences ƒ Natural catastrophes ƒ Technological catastrophes ƒ Terrorism ƒ Epidemics Megacities - Megarisks 11.01.2005 15

16. Slide 16: Risk index and geocoding create transparency of risks

    Megacities - Megarisks Risk index and geocoding create transparency of risks Second step: Risk assessment ƒ Risk index The natural hazard risk index for megacities - Looking at the whole picture ƒ Geocoding Record of the geographical position of insured objects - Looking at detail Megacities - Megar

17. Slide 17: Natural hazard risk index: A measure of loss potential

    Megacities - Megarisks Natural hazard risk index: A measure of loss potential ƒ Synoptic view of all relevant natural hazards ƒ Earthquake + allied perils (incl. tsunami) ƒ Windstorm ƒ Flood ƒ Miscellaneous (volcanism, bush fire, frost) ƒ Objective: comparative evaluation of the risk of material los

18. Slide 18: Natural hazard risk index for megacities

    Megacities - Megarisks Natural hazard risk index for megacities Top 10 + Ruhr area City Index as Hazard *) Susceptibility Values*) a whole1) 2) to loss *) Tokyo 710 10 7.1 10 San Francisco 167 6.7 8.3 3 Los Angeles 100 2.7 8.2 4.5 Osaka 92 3.6 5 5 Miami 45 2.7 7.7 2.2 New York 42 0.9 5.5 8.3 Hong Ko

19. Slide 19: Geocoding: Helps for assessing the risk of terrorism, for example

    Megacities - Megarisks Geocoding: Helps for assessing the risk of terrorism, for example Recording the geographical position of insured objects using postal code locations as a way of making liability transparent (accumulation control) Megacities - Megarisks 11.01.2005 19

20. Slide 20: Computer models calculate the probability of losses

    Megacities - Megarisks Computer models calculate the probability of losses Third step: Calculation of the risk Linking of risk components in the MRHazard computer model Value distribution per Vulnerability (% loss) Hazard location and risk type + + Intensity 0 50 100 150 200 kilometers Probable Maxi

21. Slide 21: Innovative insurance solutions are in big demand

    Megacities - Megarisks Innovative insurance solutions are in big demand ƒ Bond insurance: to hedge investments in major projects ƒ ART – Alternative risk transfer ƒ Additional capacity through CAT bonds, weather derivatives ƒ Balance of risks through use of SWAPs ƒ Micro-insurance: Insurance to secu

22. Slide 22: Thank you very much for your attention.

    Thank you very much for your attention. Megacities - Megarisks Munich Re media conference 11 January 2005

Munich Re — Munich Re media conference, 11 January 2005 on 6ix