Moody's Corporation · NYSE:MCO
Moody's — Ag Commodity Market Outlook webinar (February 2021)
58 slides from Moody's's conference presentation, Feb 25, 2021
Slide 1: Commodity Market Outlook & 5 Tips to Improve Farm Profitability
Commodity Market Outlook & 5 Tips to Improve Farm Profitability Doug Johnson, Ag Strategist, Moody’s Analytics Feb 25, 2021
Slide 2: Commodity Market Outlook
Commodity Market Outlook Join Doug Johnson from Moody’s Analytics and Mike Pearson, TV Anchor of This Week in Agribusiness as they discuss the ag commodity outlook for 2021. Hear where there is potential in the market and how to take action. Also, this is a great opportunity to create "value add" di
Slide 3: Agenda
Commodity Market Outlook Agenda • Introductions • Market Outlook & Key Drivers • Trade & Disruptors • Global Demand • Ag Commodity Outlook • 5 Tips for Marketing 1. Business IQ 2. How to know cost of production and break-evens 3. Tips for setting up a basic marketing plan 4. “What-if” scenarios to c
Slide 4: Moody's Analytics Lending Cloud
Commodity Market Outlook Moody’s Analytics Lending Cloud Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 4
Slide 5: Ag Peer Benchmarking
Commodity Market Outlook Ag Peer Benchmarking • How Do I Compare • Strengths • Weaknesses • Create Value Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 5
Slide 6: Moody's Ag Scorecard
Commodity Market Outlook Your Bank Risk Rating Moody’s Ag Scorecard Ag Scorecard • 4 Models Moody’s can help • Crop predict Probability • Livestock of Default (PD) • Feedlot and identify • Dairy potential Risk in your portfolio • Compare Internally • Model Confidence • New: Quick Score Ag Commodity
Slide 7: Presenters
Commodity Market Outlook Presenters Mike Pearson TV Anchor of “This Week in Agribusiness” Doug Johnson Director – Ag. Strategist Moody’s Analytics Lending Cloud Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 7
Slide 8: Trade & Disruptors
Commodity Market Outlook Trade & Disruptors Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 8
Slide 9: Commodity Market Outlook
Commodity Market Outlook Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 9
Slide 10: African Swine Fever and Other Animal Diseases
Commodity Market Outlook African Swine Fever and Other Animal Diseases Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 10
Slide 11: How Will the Biden Administration Address Global Trade?
Commodity Market Outlook How Will the Biden Administration Address Global Trade? Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 11
Slide 12: Global Demand & Trends
Commodity Market Outlook Global Demand & Trends Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 12
Slide 13: Chinese Grain Demand
Commodity Market Outlook Chinese Grain Demand Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 13
Slide 14: Commodity Market Outlook
Commodity Market Outlook Commodity Markets Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 14
Slide 15: Commodity Market Outlook
Commodity Market Outlook Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 15
Slide 16: Current Corn Balance Sheet
Commodity Market Outlook Current Corn Balance Sheet Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 16
Slide 17: 2021 Corn Price Moves
Commodity Market Outlook 2021 Corn Price Moves Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 17
Slide 18: Sorghum Export Demand Has Been Strong
Commodity Market Outlook Sorghum Export Demand Has Been Strong Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 18
Slide 19: Commodity Market Outlook
Commodity Market Outlook Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 19
Slide 20: Global Soybean Demand Stays Strong
Commodity Market Outlook Global Soybean Demand Stays Strong Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 20
Slide 21: Brazil Soy Harvest Delays Continue
Commodity Market Outlook Brazil Soy Harvest Delays Continue Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 21
Slide 22: Commodity Market Outlook
Commodity Market Outlook Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 22
Slide 23: Drought and Cold Moving Wheat Prices
Commodity Market Outlook Drought and Cold Moving Wheat Prices Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 23
Slide 24: Drought and Cold Moving Wheat Prices
Commodity Market Outlook Drought and Cold Moving Wheat Prices Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 24
Slide 25: Commodity Market Outlook
Commodity Market Outlook Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 25
Slide 26: Restaurant Demand Continues to be Tepid
Commodity Market Outlook Restaurant Demand Continues to be Tepid Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 26
Slide 27: Total Cattle Slaughter Continues to Run Strong
Commodity Market Outlook Total Cattle Slaughter Continues to Run Strong Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 27
Slide 28: Commodity Market Outlook
Commodity Market Outlook Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 28
Slide 29: Milk Production Rebounded in 2020
Commodity Market Outlook Milk Production Rebounded in 2020 Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 29
Slide 30: Commodity Market Outlook
Commodity Market Outlook Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 30
Slide 31: Strong Pork Exports Saved the Bacon Industry
Commodity Market Outlook Strong Pork Exports Saved the Bacon Industry Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 31
Slide 32: Commodity Market Outlook
Commodity Market Outlook Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 32
Slide 33: Other Commodities
Commodity Market Outlook Other Commodities Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 33
Slide 34: Cotton Prices Afford Some Growers an Option
Commodity Market Outlook Cotton Prices Afford Some Growers an Option Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 34
Slide 35: How Can You Make Your Farm Successful Long Term?
Commodity Market Outlook How Can You Make Your Farm Successful Long Term? Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 35
Slide 36: Most regrets don't occur on the Production side
Commodity Market Outlook Most regrets don’t occur on the Production side - Most regrets occur on the Marketing side Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 36
Slide 37: Weeding out of Marginal Producers
Commodity Market Outlook During the 1980’s we had a weeding out of Marginal Producers Today’s we’re experiencing a weeding out of Marginal Managers Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 37
Slide 38: Marketing Humor
Commodity Market Outlook Marketing Humor Use this in the coffee shop Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 38
Slide 39: Points to Think About
Commodity Market Outlook Points to Think About • <10% Farmers have & execute on Marketing Plans • Historically majority sells crop at bottom 1/3 of markets • Stored grain should not be the Checkbook • Home Run Mentality: “I’ll make it back next year” • Remember: It takes 2 generations to build a far
Slide 40: Difference Between a Top Producer vs. Bottom 5%
Commodity Market Outlook What’s the Difference Between a Top Producer vs. Bottom 5% Top Producers: • Focus on Base Hits – NOT Home Runs • Obtain Consistent Marginal Gains • Know Marketing should be as strong as Production • They Create – Document - Execute – Adjust Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb.
Slide 41: Everyone Starts At A Different Place
Commodity Market Outlook Everyone Starts At A Different Place – Don’t Look At Your Neighbor - Just Look In The Mirror - You Sacrifice for your Farm Keep This Easy - Need to Ensure the Sacrifice Here’s How to Start Your Journey & Sweat are realized Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 41
Slide 42: Business IQ
1 Business IQ
Slide 43: Business IQ: Management Factors
Commodity Market Outlook Business IQ: Management Factors • Self-Assessment • Is the Business side as good as the Production side • Goals to Improve • Strengths to Maintain Source: Dr. David M. Kohl, Professor Emeritus, Virginia Tech Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 43
Slide 44: How to know Break-Evens
y, How to know Break-Evens
Slide 45: How to Know Cost of Production & Break-Evens
Commodity Market Outlook How to Know Cost of Production & Break-Evens • Basic Level Break-Even Analysis: • Stress Test Projections with % change overall • Baseline • • Best Case Worst Case Are You Better At The Production Side • Intermediate Level Break-Even Analysis: - Or - • Cost of Production by
Slide 46: Marketing Plan Setup Tips
3 Marketing Plan Setup Tips
Slide 47: Tips to Setup a Marketing Plan
Commodity Market Outlook Tips to Setup a Marketing Plan • Define Your Goals • What Can You Do Today • Understand Your Skills If You Don’t Start • Where Do You Want to Get To • Commodity Level – Then You’ve Already • Field Level • When to Market | What Farm is Losing Money • What’s Preventing You Fro
Slide 48: Easy "What-If" Scenarios
Al Easy “What-If’ Scenarios
Slide 49: Stress Test
Commodity Market Outlook 60 Second Stress Test Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 49
Slide 50: Breakeven Analysis
Commodity Market Outlook Breakeven Analysis Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 50
Slide 51: Compare KPI's to Peers
5 Compare KPI’s to Peers
Slide 52: FFSC Ratios
Commodity Market Outlook FFSC Ratios Education: Understand what Lender looks at and why Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 52
Slide 53: Commodity Market Outlook
Commodity Market Outlook Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 53
Slide 54: Action Items – Steps to Success
Commodity Market Outlook Action Items – Steps to Success Develop Growth Plan Transition Build Succession Plan Assemble your Team Team Collaborate with Data Develop a Marketing Plan Business Document a Written Marketing Plan Understand your Real Cost of Production Understand your True Break-Evens Pro
Slide 55: Remember....
Commodity Market Outlook Remember…. Never Confuse Self-Worth With Net-Worth Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 55
Slide 56: Keep Farmers Farming & Ag Lenders Lending
Commodity Market Outlook Keep Farmers Farming & Ag Lenders Lending Thank You For Supporting Agriculture Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021 56
Slide 57: Doug Johnson, Ag Strategist
Doug Johnson, Ag Strategist 1010 N. 102nd St Omaha, NE 68114 Douglas.johnson@moodys.com 402-639-4271 moodysanalytics.com
Slide 58: Ag Commodity Market Outlook - Feb. 25, 2021
© 2020 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All To the extent permitted by law, MOODY’S and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liabilit
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