Slide 1: Production of Green eFuels
Production of Green eFuels a look into the crystal ball Esben Sorensen, Plug Power Bridget van Dorsten, Wood Mackenzie April 2023 1
Slide 2: Console tour
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Slide 3: Agenda
Agenda Introduction Green H2 & eFuels forecasts Green eFuels options Summary and Q&A 3
Slide 4: Hydrogen – At the core of the green transition
Hydrogen – At the core of the green transition Petrochemical end products & potential applications Ammonia Methanol eFuels Hydrogen SNG LOHC Other 4
Slide 5: Definition of eFuels processes
Definition of eFuels processes Chemicals & consumer goods eNH3 Energy storage & transportation eMeOH N2, CO2 eFuels eDiesel Transportation Sectors eGasoline eJet/SAF Green Power Green H2 PEM Chemical Green fuels eSNG, LOHC etc. Energy RNG Infrastructure Refineries Biofuels BioMeOH Biomass Renewable
Slide 6: Key considerations for development of an eFuels project
Key considerations for development of an eFuels project Which eFuels process is ideal for my site...and does it make (economic) sense to pursue? How are the green markets going to develop? CO2 or N2 as co-feed? eNH3 Energy storage & transportation eMeOH eFuels eDiesel How do the economics look? Tran
Slide 7: Green H2 and eFuels forecasts
Green H2 and eFuels forecasts 7
Slide 8: WoodMac research – built for the Energy Transition
woodmac.com WoodMac research – built for the Energy Transition Broad and deep – forming an integrated view of various energy transition scenarios across each segment, commodity, technology and market Integrated Global Energy Transition Research (Global Energy and Emerging Technologies) Perspectives
Slide 9: Policy is driving low-carbon hydrogen supply
Policy is driving low-carbon hydrogen supply Yet projects are stalled in the pipeline due to a lack of demand Green Hydrogen Production to 2050 in Wood Mackenzie’s different scenarios Opportunities: • More than 55Mt of announced green H2 projects 500 • 10Mt of green H2 projects announced to come onl
Slide 10: Poll
Poll What is Plug Power’s estimate for the global annual production of green Hydrogen in 2030? A B C 3.4 12 25 Mtpa Mtpa Mtpa 10
Slide 11: A global net zero scenario is possible
A global net zero scenario is possible But the market would look quite different than our base case Green Hydrogen Production to 2050 in Wood Mackenzie’s different scenarios, What do we need to get to net-zero? overlayed with Plug Power forecast • Global project capacity would need to grow 23x 500 •
Slide 12: Over 50% of H2 production will be consumed as H2
Over 50% of H2 production will be consumed as H2 Existing demand sectors will support early green hydrogen demand growth Power H₂ Global Low-carbon Hydrogen Demand by Derivative, 2020 to 2050 Low-carbon hydrogen production project Refining (Mt) announcements, sorted by end-product NH₃ 250 Fertiliser
Slide 13: Shipping and Aviation show potential for eFuel demand
Shipping and Aviation show potential for eFuel demand Power Global Low-carbon Hydrogen Demand by Sector: 2022 to 2033 Shipping companies accelerating eFuel demand 30 Ammonia Refining Methanol Steel Other Industry Road Transport Losses from H2 Trade Shipping Aviation Other Transport Global Low-carbon
Slide 14: Green H2 costs will decrease dramatically over time
Green H2 costs will decrease dramatically over time Production costs are unique to each project and depend greatly on geography and subsidies available Levelized Cost of Green Hydrogen Outlook, 2022 to 2050 $7.0 $9.0 PPA ($30/MWH) Consulting Association and NGO Banks and funds Developers OEM Supply
Slide 15: Selection of eFuels process
Selection of eFuels process 15
Slide 16: Key decision: CO2 and/or N2 as co-feed?
Key decision: CO2 and/or N2 as co-feed? Production of Ammonia Production of something else N2 as co-feed CO2 as co-feed N2 can be made using an ASU or a PSA CO2 can be sourced from • Both processes are industrially proven a. Petrochemical waste streams b. Flue gas c. Direct Air Capture Possibility o
Slide 17: Ammonia gives simplest overall material balance
Ammonia gives simplest overall material balance Power Hydrogen required for the production of 1,000 ktoe of fuel 600 500 Methanol Synthesis Fischer-Tropsch 400 Ammonia Synthesis 3H2 + CO2 → CH3OH + H2O Kt of hydrogen 3H2 + N2 → 2 NH3 12H2 + 12CO2 12CO + 12H2O 25H2 + 12CO C12H26 + 12H2O 300 9H2 + 4CO
Slide 18: Poll
Poll How much of the energy contained in Hydrogen is it possible to preserve in the product if hydrogen is converted to one of the considered products? (Ammonia, Methanol, Gasoline, SAF or Diesel) A B C 88% 78% 68% 18
Slide 19: Process Efficiency
Process Efficiency How much energy can we preserve in the final product? Energy efficiencies as HV of product/HV of feed Example: 3 H2 + N2 → 2 NH3 - What % of energy in the H2, can theoretically be recovered in the product? - What is a realistic target – taking into consideration process losses? Co
Slide 20: Product Revenue
Product Revenue Challenge: Few stablished markets/prices for What is the likely income from product sale? green products Estimated product revenues – Green vs. Grey Assumptions: $3,500 • Ammonia price based on linear regressions 1995-2022 Gray price Green price • Price of green ammonia and methanol
Slide 21: Prediction of Ammonia Prices
Prediction of Ammonia Prices Like selling rubberband by length Ammonia prices USD/ton as function of time $1,800 Illinois FarmdocDaily. Sep 22 $1,600 Texas A&M, Jan 22 S&P, Black sea $1,400 Ammonia Price (USD/ton) S&P, Tampa Linear (Illinois FarmdocDaily. Sep 22 ) $1,200 Linear (Texas A&M, Jan 22) $
Slide 22: Product Prices (USD / Ton)
Product Prices (USD / Ton) How much of the revenue is left once the cost of green H2 has been paid? Estimated sales revenue and cost of green H2 feed stock Conclusions $3,500 Green premium or subsidies presently Gray price required for most green projects to attain $3,000 Green price attractive econ
Slide 23: Complexity of the various processes
Complexity of the various processes Green Power PEM H2 Ammonia Fully proven Steam Ammonia Ammonia Liquid Ammonia Grid Loop Refrigeration Green Power N2 ASU/PSA Green Power PEM H2 Fusel Methanol Fully proven MeOH Liquid Methanol MeOH Loop Distillation Green Power CO2 CCU Process Condensate Steam Stea
Slide 24: Complexity of the various processes – cont.d
Complexity of the various processes – cont.d Green Power PEM H2 Off spec. Hydrocarbons eGasoline MTG Loop & Gasoline Fully proven MeOH Loop Distillation Green Power CO2 CCU Process Condensate Steam Steam Steam Steam Grid Green Power PEM H2 Off spec. Hydrocarbons SAF/eDiesel Syngas Syngas Fischer-Tro
Slide 25: Characteristics of various eFuels processes
Characteristics of various eFuels processes Summary of Considerations 25
Slide 26: Characteristics of Various Green Processes
Characteristics of Various Green Processes Summary NH3 MeOH Gasoline Diesel / SAF Very high thermal efficiency Very high thermal efficiency Plays into existing infrastructure Plays into existing infrastructure Fully proven simple process Fully proven simple process Fully proven but relatively comple
Slide 27: Q&A
Q&A 27
Slide 28: Back-up slides
Back-up slides 28
Slide 29: Green Ammonia (NH3)
Green Ammonia (NH3) Energy recoveries (Products/Feed) Ammonia Theoretical LHV 87% HHV 89% Realistic 86% 89% Green Power H2 PEM Steam Ammonia Ammonia Liquid Ammonia Grid Loop Refrigeration Green Power N2 ASU/PSA • Simple proven process configuration • Good option for chemical H2-storage • No side pro
Slide 30: Green Methanol (CH3OH)
Green Methanol (CH3OH) Energy recoveries (Products/Feed) Methanol Theoretical LHV 88% HHV 86% Realistic 86% 84% Fusel Green Power H2 PEM MeOH Liquid Methanol MeOH Loop Distillation Green Power CO2 CCU Process Condensate Steam Steam Steam Steam Steam Import Grid • Simple proven process configuration
Slide 31: Green Gasoline
Green Gasoline Energy recoveries (Products/Feed) Gasoline Theoretical LHV 84% HHV 76% Realistic 76% 68% Off spec. Hydrocarbons Green Power H2 PEM MTG Loop & Gasoline MeOH Loop Distillation Green Power CO2 CCU Process Condensate Steam Steam Steam Steam Grid • Product fits existing infrastructure • Si
Slide 32: Green SAF and/or Diesel
Green SAF and/or Diesel Energy recoveries (Products/Feed) SAF/Diesel Theoretical LHV 83% HHV 76% Realistic 75% 68% Off spec. Hydrocarbons Green Power H2 PEM Naphtha Syngas Syngas Fischer-Tropsch Alkanes Product Kerosene Generation Synthesis Work-up Diesel Green Power CO2 Process Condensate CCU Steam
Slide 33: References
References Slide 20: [NH3] Source 1: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2022/09/fertilizer-prices-rates-and-costs-for-2023.html [NH3] Source 2: https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/corn/natural-gas-prices-only-account-15-run-anhydrous-ammonia-prices-shows-new-texas-am [MeOH] https://www.methanol.org/meth