Slide 1: ASX cover fax: Investor Presentation for Half Year Results
To Company Announcements Office Facsimile 1300 135 638 Company ASX Limited Date 13 February 2025 From Helen Hardy Pages 72 Subject Investor Presentation for Half Year Results Please find attached the investor presentation relating to Origin Energy’s Results for the half year ended 31 December 2024.
Slide 2: 2025 Half Year Results
Origin Energy For personal use only 2025 Half Year Results Year ended 31 December 2024 Frank Calabria, CEO & Tony Lucas, CFO 13 February 2025
Slide 3: Outline
Outline For personal use only 1. Introduction - Frank Calabria 2. Financial Review - Tony Lucas 3. Operational Review - Frank Calabria 4. Outlook & Wrap Up - Frank Calabria 2 13 February 2025 • 2025 Half Year Results Announcement
Slide 4: Introduction
For personal use only Introduction Frank Calabria, CEO
Slide 5: Summary of Result
For personal use only • Summary of Result − Energy Markets: Earnings lower in line with guidance expectations − APLNG: Earnings up 14% with higher realised prices and increased sales volumes − LNG trading: Underlying EBITDA up 270% at $285 million − Octopus: Earnings growth in UK Retail offset by in
Slide 6: Financial highlights
Financial highlights For personal use only Statutory Profit Underlying Profit Underlying EBITDA $1,017 $924 $1,926 million million million Up from $995 million in HY24 Up from $747 million in HY24 Down from $1,995 million in HY24 Adjusted Net Debt / Adjusted Origin ROCE (pre-tax)2 Interim Dividend U
Slide 7: As the NEM transitions to renewables, dispatchable capacity increases in value
As the NEM transitions to renewables, dispatchable capacity increases in value For personal use only NEM capacity growth as coal gradually phases out (AEMO Step Change scenario) 250 • The energy transition will be a multi decade challenge to 200 achieve net zero by 2050 whilst meeting growing demand
Slide 8: Policies must focus on energy security as the markets transition to net zero
Policies must focus on energy security as the markets transition to net zero For personal use only NEM design needs to be fit for purpose Addressing urgent gas supply challenge • A capacity mechanism including gas is critical to support • Significant risk of shortfalls in the coming years given both
Slide 9: Leading the energy transition through differentiated assets and capabilities
Leading the energy transition through differentiated assets and capabilities For personal use only Customer Energy supply Energy resource Octopus Leading customer position, Differentiated flexible portfolio, World class LNG asset Significant global growth trusted brand, world class diverse supply, d
Slide 10: Customer: Unrivalled customer solutions
Customer: Unrivalled customer solutions For personal use only Home and Small Business (Retail) Large Business (Origin Zero) 4.7m >25k customer accounts sites • Strong brand with unrelenting focus on customer • Combining energy supply with a range of energy efficiency, electrification and distributed
Slide 11: Energy Supply: Advantaged portfolio, accelerating renewables and storage
Energy Supply: Advantaged portfolio, accelerating renewables and storage For personal use only Leading portfolio for firming Targeting 4-5 GW of renewables renewables and storage by 2030 • 3 GW gas fired generation • 1.7 GW of 2-4 hour battery development projects • 240 MW Shoalhaven pumped hydro pl
Slide 12: APLNG: World class asset making a valuable contribution to domestic market
APLNG: World class asset making a valuable contribution to domestic market For personal use only >15,000 PJ ~25% reserves and resources1 of sales delivered to domestic market2 • World class CSG resource and LNG infrastructure • ~75PJ delivered to domestic market in HY25 • Underpinned by strong opera
Slide 13: Octopus: UK Retail and Kraken continue to exceed expectations
Octopus: UK Retail and Kraken continue to exceed expectations For personal use only >15m 62m Investing in the future energy customer accounts globally Kraken contracted customer accounts at Dec-24, up 22% in 12 months ecosystem • Now the largest energy retailer in UK • Global SaaS platform operation
Slide 14: Financial Review
For personal use only Financial Review Tony Lucas, CFO
Slide 15: Underlying Profit up $177 million to $924 million
Underlying Profit up $177 million to $924 million For personal use only Movements in Underlying Profit ($m) 924 747 271 (35) (1) 25 (306) 156 67 HY24 EM EBITDA IG - Share of IG - Other Share of Corporate D&A Tax / other HY25 APLNG profit EBITDA Octopus EBITDA profit Growth in UK Lower Retail and Kra
Slide 16: Free cash flow reflects investment in growth projects and higher tax paid
Free cash flow reflects investment in growth projects and higher tax paid For personal use only HY25 HY24 Change Underlying EBITDA, adj for non-cash items 1,005 1,183 (178) • Change in working capital driven by the unwind of Change in working capital (351) (791) 440 $400 million out of $600 million
Slide 17: APLNG franked dividends of $612 million
APLNG franked dividends of $612 million, $562 million net of Origin hedging For personal use only APLNG1 distribution, net of Origin hedging ($m) 1,490 1,430 • HY25 cash dividends of $612 million to Origin in 1,367 the form of fully franked dividends 1,254 — $562 million cash net of Origin hedging A
Slide 18: Net debt increased to $4 billion driven by growth capex and tax paid
Net debt increased to $4 billion driven by growth capex and tax paid For personal use only Movements in Adjusted Net Debt ($m) 4,032 2 173 71 474 •1 Full year FY25 tax paid is expected to be ~$1.0 billion and then significantly lower 2,833 1 925 in FY26 (lagged impact of earnings and 705 (612) frank
Slide 19: Dividend growth
Dividend growth For personal use only Dividends (cps) • Shareholder distribution policy seeks to deliver sustainable distributions through the business cycle 27.5 • Interim FY25 dividend determined of 30cps, fully franked (up from 27.5 cps) − Reflects balance sheet strength and cash generation from
Slide 20: Strong balance sheet enabling investment in the energy transition
Strong balance sheet enabling investment in the energy transition For personal use only Adjusted Net Debt / Adjusted Underlying EBITDA1 4 • Current balance sheet strength to fund investment in the energy transition and provides flexibility and choices • Debt/EBITDA 1.5x (rolling 12 month basis), up
Slide 21: Capital allocation framework in action
Capital allocation framework in action For personal use only Utilising third party capital On balance sheet 1 2 • Retail ‘bolt-on’ acquisitions Recent transactions and commitments • Broadband growth • Strategically located battery sites 1 • ~500 MW Supernode battery offtake in QLD • Brownfield batte
Slide 22: Energy Markets EBITDA lower, in line with guidance
Energy Markets EBITDA lower, in line with guidance For personal use only Movements in Underlying EBITDA ($m) (196) (80) (17) (13) • Lower Electricity gross profit: Higher coal costs and lower wholesale allowance in DMO/VDO reflecting the lagged impact of market prices from the prior year, partially
Slide 23: Integrated Gas EBITDA higher with increased volumes and LNG trading gains
Integrated Gas EBITDA higher with increased volumes and LNG trading gains For personal use only Movements in Underlying EBITDA ($m) 7 20 20 149 (78) 132 Share of APLNG EBITDA up $94 million: • Higher LNG sales volumes and prices 1,251 • Higher domestic revenue from a strong short term domestic marke
Slide 24: Share of Octopus Energy down with growth reinvested in Energy Services
Share of Octopus Energy down with growth reinvested in Energy Services For personal use only Movements in Underlying EBITDA ($m) (2) 4 • UK Retail: 10% organic customer growth vs Dec-23, full period of Shell acquisition and lower REGO prices − Attracting >40% of market switches 31 (45) − >30% drop i
Slide 25: Operational Review
For personal use only Operational Review Frank Calabria, CEO
Slide 26: Energy Markets
For personal use only Energy Markets
Slide 27: Retail has grown substantially in recent years and is well positioned
Retail has grown substantially in recent years and is well positioned For personal use only Deal with Octopus CES acquisitions Set 2GW target Aggregator Acquisition Energy, began complete for VPP (Loop) acquisitions of SolarQuotes migrating OC Energy & Now at ~1.5 GW MyConnect & 1Bill customers to K
Slide 28: Customer: Relentless focus on continuous improvement through tech
Customer: Relentless focus on continuous improvement through tech For personal use only Improving Customer Experience Operational efficiency embracing AI Product development Trust Pilot (Trust score out of 5 stars) # of messages sent 4.6 4.4 3.0 2.1 25k 4k 3.5k <1k reviews reviews reviews reviews Ju
Slide 29: Customer: Growing share and value
Customer: Growing share and value For personal use only Growing customer base 6.7% lower churn to market Customer accounts (‘000) Monthly churn rate (%) 30% +3% CAGR 4,714 4,657 4,525 25% 4,459 4,266 20% 15% 10% Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 HY25 FY23 FY24 HY25 Electric
Slide 30: Customer: Cost reduction initiatives on track for FY26 target
Customer: Cost reduction initiatives on track for FY26 target For personal use only Energy Markets Cost to Serve $m 500 Run-rate costs expected to deliver further savings in H2 FY25 400 • Digital initiatives improving cash collections and 300 operational efficiencies (e.g credit decisioning engine)
Slide 31: Customer: Accelerating growth beyond the core
Customer: Accelerating growth beyond the core For personal use only Community Energy Services Broadband Partnerships Community Energy Services Gross Profit Customer accounts (‘000) Customer accounts (‘000) 168 100 500 152 474 464 457 442 124 413 96 400 74 81 78 70 71 68 50 300 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H1 H2 H
Slide 32: Customer: Origin Zero – broad suite of services to corporate customers
Customer: Origin Zero – broad suite of services to corporate customers For personal use only Growing number of strategic Broad suite of E-mobility customer accounts integrated energy services Large business customers on broader services # of EVs under management 25% 1,200 1,000 20% 800 15% 600 10% 4
Slide 33: Energy Supply: Battery portfolio progressing in line with expectations
Energy Supply: Battery portfolio progressing in line with expectations For personal use only Project Type Capacity Storage State Estimated Total (MW) (MWh) Commercial Capex Operation ($m) Date Eraring Stage 1 Build & own 460 1,770 NSW Q4 CY25 ~8501 (incl expansion) Eraring Stage 2 Build & own 240 1,
Slide 34: Energy Supply: Portfolio able to adapt to different market conditions
For personal use only Energy Supply: Portfolio able to adapt to different market conditions NSW oversupply day – 26 Dec 2024 NSW high demand day – 7 Nov 2024 Energy position for 11:30 – 12:00 Spot price during the day Energy position for 17:30 – 18:00 Spot price during the day MWh $/MWh MWh $/MWh 15
Slide 35: Electricity Gross Profit tracking in line with medium term target
Electricity Gross Profit tracking in line with medium term target For personal use only Electricity prices Coal prices Electricity gross profit 250 NSW electricity forward price ($/MWh) A$/t 50 $/MWh 700 600 Target range 200 40 500 150 30 Average FY26 400 FY25 100 FY24 300 20 200 50 10 100 - - - For
Slide 36: Gas margins in line with medium term target range
Gas margins in line with medium term target range For personal use only Gas prices Gross Profit Contracted gas supply A$/GJ A$/GJ 200 PJ 70 8 60 6 150 50 40 Target range 4 100 30 20 2 50 10 - - - H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 Oct-23 Jul-23 Jul-24 Oct-24 Jan-23 Jan-24 Apr-24 Apr-23 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 JKM
Slide 37: Integrated Gas
For personal use only Integrated Gas
Slide 38: APLNG revenue up 13%, costs stable in HY25
APLNG revenue up 13%, costs stable in HY25 For personal use only Commodity Prices Revenue Costs A$/GJ $m 60 8,000 $m Capex + Opex2 $/GJ 3,000 5.0 50 6,000 2,500 4.0 40 2,000 3.0 30 4,000 1,500 2.0 20 1,000 2,000 10 1.0 500 - 0 - 0.0 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY
Slide 39: Half year production stable at APLNG, benefiting from a diverse portfolio
Half year production stable at APLNG, benefiting from a diverse portfolio For personal use only Production up 1% Managing a diverse portfolio APLNG production (100%) (PJ) APLNG operated production (TJ/d) 400 1,700 350 1,600 300 1,500 250 1,400 Unplanned facility 200 outage turndown 1,300 150 1,200 1
Slide 40: Recent production impacted by lower than expected optimisation benefits
For personal use onlyRecent production impacted by lower than expected optimisation benefits Track record of strong production and low drilling Recent production challenges following turndowns enabled by field optimisation PJ APLNG Production & Operated Wells Drilled # wells drilled CTO production T
Slide 41: Near term ramp up of optimisation activities to manage natural field decline
Near term ramp up of optimisation activities to manage natural field decline For personal use only Near term focus on managing natural field decline in Condabri, Talinga & Orana • Ramp up well optimisation activity − Artificial lift system (ALS) conversions − Solids mitigation solutions − Downhole d
Slide 42: APLNG commercial update
APLNG commercial update For personal use only LNG Price Review Cargo deferral period ended Dec-24 • As previously disclosed, APLNG has received a price review • In 2018 we disclosed that an APLNG buyer elected to defer notice from Sinopec in respect of its long-term LNG supply delivery of 30 cargoes
Slide 43: LNG trading delivering earnings growth in FY25
LNG trading delivering earnings growth in FY25 For personal use only European and US Gas prices US/mmbtu 100 Majority of • Origin’s LNG trading business comprises: hedging – Cameron contract – purchase of 0.25 mtpa Henry activity 80 Hub linked gas via a contract to 2039 – Portfolio of contracts and
Slide 44: Octopus Energy
For personal use only Octopus Energy
Slide 45: Two world class businesses in Octopus Energy and Kraken Technologies
Two world class businesses in Octopus Energy and Kraken Technologies For personal use only Octopus Kraken Energy Technologies Largest and most loved energy retailer in Rapidly growing global enterprise software the UK. platform. Cloud native. AI enabled. Investing to replicate success in non-UK Deli
Slide 46: Now the largest and most loved energy retailer in the UK
Now the largest and most loved energy retailer in the UK For personal use only YouGov survey results % customers supporting the following statements per supplier... • Delivering customer love – exceptional service, excellent value for money 74% 76% – Attracting > 40% of market switches, despite not
Slide 47: Scaling internationally to replicate UK success in de-regulated markets
Scaling internationally to replicate UK success in de-regulated markets For personal use only Non-UK customer accounts Non-UK 000s UK Germany France Italy Spain Japan1 500 Germany Households (m) 28 42 31 26 19 54 400 % annual switches 10% 15% 23% 19% 16% 20% France Smart meter 63% 1% 100% 100% 95% 1
Slide 48: Energy Services: Creating a step change in CLV through Low Carbon Tech
Energy Services: Creating a step change in CLV through Low Carbon Tech For personal use only Value Equipment After care Flexibility / Installation streams margin R&M orchestration Market leading customer trust and brand drives customer interest and low acquisition costs Heat pumps EVs and chargers S
Slide 49: Low Carbon Tech is expected to drive the flywheel of future customer value
Low Carbon Tech is expected to drive the flywheel of future customer value For personal use only Indicative future lifetime value for an energy customer • Vertically integrated position: − Scaled and highly engaged customer base − National coverage − Proprietary hardware, software and control system
Slide 50: Kraken: the new end-to-end operating system for utilities
Kraken X is the new end-to-end operating system for future- oriented utilities For personal use only FLEX CUSTOMER Consumer devices to infrastructure Customer Journeys Asset Management CIS & Billing Asset Control & Dispatch Meter Data Management Real-time Alerting Customer Relationship Asset & Portf
Slide 51: Kraken: On track to reach 100 million accounts and >£500 million ARR
Kraken: On track to reach 100 million accounts and >£500 million ARR ahead of 2027 For personal use only Live & Contracted customer accounts (m) 62 Customer demand increasing – energy companies globally 51 needing to re-platform to enable data and future energy solutions De-risked migration a key bu
Slide 52: Outlook & Wrap Up
For personal use only Outlook & Wrap Up Frank Calabria, CEO
Slide 53: FY25 Guidance Summary
FY25 Guidance Summary For personal use only The following guidance is provided on the basis that market conditions and the regulatory environment do not materially change Origin FY24 FY25 guidance Status Energy Markets EBITDA A$m 1,655 1,100 – 1,400 Unchanged LNG Trading EBITDA1 A$m 87 400 – 450 Upp
Slide 54: For personal use only
For personal use only • Advantaged portfolio that is difficult to replicate and investing further in the transition − Strong retail position, world class tech platforms, persistent focus on continuous improvement − ~3 GW gas fired generation + competitive fuel supply − 1.7 GW grid scale batteries +
Slide 55: Appendix
For personal use only Appendix
Slide 56: FY25 Guidance commentary - Energy Markets and Octopus Energy
FY25 Guidance commentary - Energy Markets and Octopus Energy For personal use only The following guidance is provided on the basis that market conditions and the regulatory environment do not materially change Energy Markets Energy Markets (continued) FY25 EBITDA is expected to be $1,100 – $1,400 mi
Slide 57: FY25 Guidance commentary - Integrated Gas
FY25 Guidance commentary - Integrated Gas For personal use only The following guidance is provided on the basis that market conditions and the regulatory environment do not materially change APLNG 100% APLNG 100% (continued) FY25 • Capex and opex1 is expected to be $2.7-$2.9 billion, lower than APLN
Slide 58: FY25 Guidance – Origin capex
FY25 Guidance – Origin capex For personal use only Origin capex, excluding acquisitions ($m) • Total Origin capex for FY25 is expected to be $1.5 1,500 - 1,700 - 1.7 billion, subject to timing of payments to key suppliers around year end – Growth capex is expected to be $1.2 – 1.3 billion with conti
Slide 59: Our ambition and strategy
Our ambition and strategy For personal use only Our ambition To lead the energy transition through cleaner energy and customer solutions Our Unrivalled customer Accelerate renewable Deliver reliable energy strategic solutions and cleaner energy through the transition pillars Our value Lower cost, gr
Slide 60: Executing on our strategy
Executing on our strategy For personal use only Ambition Achieved as at 31 December 2024 $100 - $150 million cost to serve reduction (FY26 vs FY24) On track based on operational changes and initiatives underway Octopus 100 million licensed Kraken accounts (2027) ~62 million contracted Kraken custome
Slide 61: Items excluded from Underlying Profit
Items excluded from Underlying Profit For personal use only Reconciliation from Statutory to Underlying Profit ($m) Items excluded from Underlying Profit relate to: • Impairment of Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub ($13 million) • Restructuring costs relating to a review of functional and 13 41 68 (52) sha
Slide 62: Customer account movements
Customer account movements For personal use only Electricity ('000) 31 December 30 June 10 Customer accounts ('000) as at Change 2024 2024 Electricity 2,776 2,763 13 5 Business 24 25 (1) Retail – Mass Market 2,547 2,542 5 - Retail – Community Energy Services 205 196 9 (5) Gas 1,322 1,323 (1) NSW 1 Q
Slide 63: Electricity forward price by State
Electricity forward price by State ($/MWh) For personal use only 250 NSW 200 VIC 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 - - May-22 Nov-22 May-23 Nov-23 May-24 Nov-24 May-22 Nov-22 May-23 Nov-23 May-24 Nov-24 250 QLD 250 SA 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 - - May-22 Nov-22 May-23 Nov-23 May-24 Nov-24 May-22 Nov-22
Slide 64: Origin’s ‘energy’ position
Origin’s ‘energy’ position For personal use only Illustrative Origin energy position ‘Energy prices’ are defined here as NEM pool prices TWh <$300/MWh • Impact within a financial year Losses − Customer tariffs largely fixed at start of financial year Short Not hedged to in-year pool price movements
Slide 65: Origin’s ‘capacity’ position
Origin’s ‘capacity’ position For personal use only Illustrative Origin capacity position MW ‘Capacity prices’ are defined here as prices for contracts Maximum that strike at NEM pool prices >$300/MWh demand • Impact within a financial year Capacity Only hedges in-year pool − Customer tariffs largely
Slide 66: Segment summary
Segment summary For personal use only Energy Markets Share of Octopus Integrated Gas Integrated Corporate Total Energy - Share of APLNG Gas - Other ($m) HY25 HY24 HY25 HY24 HY25 HY24 HY25 HY24 HY25 HY24 HY25 HY24 Underlying EBITDA 738 1,044 (24) (12) 1,038 944 213 57 (39) (38) 1,926 1,995 Underlying
Slide 67: Underlying ROCE – month rolling
Underlying ROCE – 24 month rolling For personal use only 31 December 2024 31 December 2023 Change Change As at ($m) ($m) ($m) (%) Capital Employed Net assets 10,340 9,236 1,104 12% Adjusted net debt 4,032 3,177 855 27% Net derivative (asset)/liability (409) (144) (265) 184% Origin's share of APLNG n
Slide 68: Reconciliation of Adjusted Net Debt
Reconciliation of Adjusted Net Debt For personal use only Issue Issue Hedged Hedged AUD $m AUD $m AUD $m $m Currency Notional Currency Notional Dec-24 Dec-24 Dec-24 Interest bearing Debt & CCIRS FV Adjusted net debt liabilities2 adjustments AUD debt AUD 1,800 AUD 1,800 1,784 1,784 USD Debt left in U
Slide 69: Energy Markets segment revenue reconciliation
Energy Markets segment revenue reconciliation For personal use only The table below reconciles the difference between segment revenue and customer revenue disclosed in the Electricity, Natural Gas, LPG, Solar & Energy Services and Future Energy tables. HY25 HY24 Change Change ($m) ($m) ($m) (%) Ener
Slide 70: Important notices
Important notices For personal use only Forward looking statements This presentation contains forward looking statements, including statements of current intention, statements of opinion and predictions as to possible future events. Such statements are not statements of fact and there can be no cert
Slide 71: Important notices
Important notices For personal use only All figures in this presentation relate to businesses of the Origin Energy Group (Origin, or the Company), being Origin Energy Limited and its controlled entities, for the reporting period ended 31 December 2024 (the period) compared with the reporting period
Slide 72: For more information
For more information For personal use only Liam Barry Head of Corporate Strategy and Investor Relations Email: liam.barry@originenergy.com.au Office: +61 293 755 991 Mobile: +61 401 710 367 Lindsay Donnelly Group Manager, Investor Relations Email: lindsay.donnelly@originenergy.com.au Office: +61 2 8