Blue Bird Corporation · NASDAQ:BLBD
Blue Bird — Investor Presentation (February 2023)
32 slides from Blue Bird's investor presentation, February 2023
Slide 1: Blue Bird Corporation Investor Presentation February 2023
“A Leader in zero- and low-emission transportation” BLUE BIRD CORPORATION (NASDAQ: BLBD) Investor Presentation February 2023
Slide 2: Important Disclaimers: Forward Looking Statements
Important Disclaimers Forward Looking Statements This presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the “safe harbor” provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements relate to expectations for future financial performance,
Slide 3: Important Disclaimers: Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Important Disclaimers Non-GAAP Financial Measures This presentation may include the following non-GAAP financial measures: “Adjusted EBITDA,” "Adjusted EBITDA Margin," “Adjusted Net Income,” “Adjusted Diluted Earnings per Share,” “Free Cash Flow” and “Adjusted Free Cash Flow.” Adjusted EBITDA is def
Slide 4: Agenda
Agenda Investment Highlights School Bus Industry Overview Company & Product Highlights FY2023 Objectives Growth Runway 4
Slide 5: Investment Highlights
Investment Highlights Well positioned for growth given the backdrop of an aging school bus fleet Primed to be a direct beneficiary of $5B of infrastructure US Government’s commitment to electrification of school buses Leading market position in alternative power with a scaling EV business and an exp
Slide 6: School Bus Industry Overview
School Bus Industry Overview 6
Slide 7: Industry Highlights
Industry Highlights OEMs School Bus Customers Lion ~3,400 Contractors 500k+ Thomas Blue Bird ~10,000 School Districts IC High barriers to entry Highly specialized product -- Complex state and customer requirements -- Dealer and service network -- Customer relationship driven business Demand Drivers
Slide 8: Type C & D School Bus Industry
Type C & D School Bus Industry Mean: 31,000 Historical Registrations Long Term Avg. ('85-'19) ▪ Industry avg size (pre-COVID) is 31,000 new units annually based on Polk registrations ▪ Total fleet of school buses is ~515,000 units and average age is about 10 years ▪ Industry size is driven by: ▪ Num
Slide 9: Fleet Age Profile Supports Industry Levels
Fleet Age Profile Supports Industry Levels ~515K School Buses on the Road as of the end of CY2022 40,000 43%+ of the fleet is 35,000 10 years and older 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 ~221K bus
Slide 10: Company & Product Highlights
Company & Product Highlights 10
Slide 11: Introduction to Blue Bird
Introduction to Blue Bird ▪ Headquartered in Macon, Georgia Dedicated Manufacturing Micro Bird JV Facility ▪ Leader in alternative power; #1 in electric & propane school buses (Drummondville, Quebec, Canada) ▪ ~60% of Blue Bird sales are non-diesel; <10-20% for competitors Footprint Parts Distributi
Slide 12: Proven Leadership in Clean Technologies
Proven Leadership in Clean Technologies 14000 70% Diesel Gas Propane CNG Electric Alt-Power mix ▪ Proven track record of leadership in 12000 60% new technologies; more than 50% of 11,649 11,317 11,017 unit sales are non- diesel 10,616 58% 10,378 10000 9,064 48% 48% 50% ▪ Leader in electric and propa
Slide 13: EPA Clean School Bus Rebate Program
EPA Clean School Bus Rebate Program Program Overview 2022 Lottery Results $5B funding over 5 years Blue Bird Corporate and Dealers Other OEMs ~300 Loyal BB Customers and ~$1B released in 2022 690 200- Channel Partners 400 2,468 Buses awarded at 391 School Districts ~1,200 Unallocated winnings Short-
Slide 14: Build Complete Ecosystem for EV School Bus Deployment
Build Complete Ecosystem for EV School Bus Deployment END OF LIFE ASSESSMENT Determine recycling program for Determine what bus best fits the used batteries after use customer’s needs based on terrain, climate and route planning SERVICE & SUPPORT FINANCING Connect with dealer and EV system Identify
Slide 15: FY2023 Objectives
FY2023 Objectives 15
Slide 16: FY2023 Objectives & Focus Areas
FY2023 Objectives & Focus Areas Our People Lean Transformation Expanding Our TAM Scaling EV 16
Slide 17: FY2023 Focus Areas
FY2023 Focus Areas Focus Area Completed Future Levers ✓ Leadership team transformation completed o Continuing upgrades in the manufacturing facility ✓ Rolled out a comprehensive employee engagement plan to Our People improve employee satisfaction ✓ Improving the span of control and accountability in
Slide 18: Pricing is Taking Hold – Backlog Profile Improving
Pricing is Taking Hold – Backlog Profile Improving Status 01/30/23 Production Quarter 5% 28% 27% 50% 64% 60% FY23 Orders to go 74% FY23 Backlog (+25% pricing) 100% 100% FY22 Newer Backlog (11-15% pricing) 61% 72% FY21 Old Backlog (0-5% pricing) 39% 27% 36% 26% 12% 8% 9% 2% FY22-Q1 FY22-Q2 FY22-Q3 FY
Slide 19: Key Success Factors Already in Place for FY2023
Key Success Factors Already in Place for FY2023 Rev. $235 $245 - $260 $255 - $270 $265 - $285 $1,000 - $1,050 $M ✓ Q1 guidance met; Record Revenues and EV sales ~43 Adj. EBITDA 1 ✓ Raising Revenues and EBITDA guidance for FY23 40 - 46 ✓ Fiscal Year almost sold out, with locked higher pricing ~4% ✓ S
Slide 20: FY2023 Guidance Raised: Strong profitability in FY2023-H2
FY2023 Guidance Raised: Strong profitability in FY2023-H2 FY2022 FY2023 FY2023 B/(W) $ Millions Actuals Initial Updated Vs. Prior Year Guidance Guidance ▪ FY23-Q1 with headwinds from old Net Revenue $800 $900 – $1,000 $1,000 - $1,050 $200 - $250 backlog pricing ▪ Improved volumes expected during Q2
Slide 21: Positioned for Strong Recovery in FY2023 & Beyond
Positioned for Strong Recovery in FY2023 & Beyond 45,000 NA School Bus Industry Bookings 20%+ = 8,250+ units Class 6-7* 39.6k 40,000 38.7k 36.8k 36.6k 35.8k 36.1k 35,000 33.5k Revenue 25%+ = ~$1 Billion 29.6k 30,000 27.4k 26.4k 25.7k 25,000 Parts Revenue 10%+ = $84+ Million 20,000 ~10% CAGR 15,000 E
Slide 22: Solid Growth Runway
Solid Growth Runway 22
Slide 23: Long-term Outlook Driven by EV growth and Lean Transformation
Long-term Outlook Driven by EV growth and Lean Transformation Units Revenues $M Diesel Gas Propane CNG EV Outlook Rev. $M 11,646 12,000 12,000 11,317 11,017 11,000 3,000 10,500 10,000 8,878 9,500 2,500 8,250 2,000 8,000 6,679 6,822 1,750 2,000 6,000 1,500 1,500 1,250 4,000 1,019 879 1,025 1,000 991
Slide 24: Strong Outlook Ahead for Blue Bird / Investment Highlights
Strong Outlook Ahead for Blue Bird / Investment Highlights Countercyclical Strong industry growth ahead with a backdrop of healthy funding and an aging school bus fleet National Commitment Beneficiary of $5B US Government’s commitment to the electrification of school buses The Leader Leading market
Slide 25: Appendix
Appendix 25
Slide 26: Income Statement
Income Statement ($ Millions) FY2023-Q1 FY2022-Q1 B/(W) Unit Volume 1,957 1,149 808 Unit Backlog 5,335 4,854 481 Net Revenue $235.7 $129.2 $106.5 Bus Rev./Unit ($000's) $109.0 $97.9 $11.1 / 10% Gross Margin 3.2% 12.5% (930) bps Adj. Net Income1 $(9.8) $(2.0) $(7.8) Adj. EBITDA1 $(4.2) $3.6 $(7.8) Ad
Slide 27: Balance Sheet and Cash Flow
Balance Sheet and Cash Flow ($ Millions) FY2023-Q1 FY2022-Q1 B/(W) Cash $5.7 $4.1 $1.6 Debt $(149.1) $(165.3) $16.2 Liquidity1 $84.4 $92.8 $(8.4) Operating Cash Flow $19.9 $(33.1) $53.0 Adj. Free Cash Flow2 $19.6 $(34.1) $53.7 Trade Working Capital* $33.8 $(24.0) $57.8 Positive Free Cash Flow for Q1
Slide 28: FY2022-Q1 to FY2023-Q1 Adj. EBITDA Walk
FY2022-Q1 to FY2023-Q1 Adj. EBITDA Walk ($ Millions) 15.0 20.8 Q1 Unit Volume FY2023 – 1,957 FY2022 – 1,149 Delta – 808 -7.8 10.0 3.6 3% of Net 8% of Net Rev. Rev. (2)% of 4.6 0.9 Net Rev. (4.2) (13.3) FY22-Q1 Bus Gross Parts Gross OPEX/Other FY23-Q1 Addback Add FY23 H2 Simulated Adj. EBITDA Profit
Slide 29: Adj. EBITDA Reconciliation
Adj. EBITDA Reconciliation Reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted EBITDA 29
Slide 30: Free Cash Flow Reconciliation
Free Cash Flow Reconciliation Reconciliation of Free Cash Flow to Adjusted Free Cash Flow 30
Slide 31: Adjusted EPS Reconciliation
Adjusted EPS Reconciliation Reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted Net Income and of Diluted EPS to Adjusted Diluted EPS 31
Slide 32: End
End 32