The Aes Corporation · NYSE:AES
The Aes — Q2 2025 Earnings Presentation
53 slides from The Aes's earnings presentation, Aug 1, 2025
Slide 1: The AES Corporation Second Quarter 2025 Financial Review
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS The AES Corporation Second Quarter 2025 Financial Review August 1, 2025
Slide 2: Safe Harbor Disclosure
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Safe Harbor Disclosure Certain statements in the following presentation regarding AES’ business operations may constitute “forward-looking statements.” Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, those related to future earnings, growth and fi
Slide 3: Agenda
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Agenda Andrés Gluski, AES President & CEO → State of the US electricity market → Second quarter 2025 results → Resiliency of our business → US utility growth Steve Coughlin, AES EVP & CFO → Q2 2025 financial results → 2025 guidance → 2025 Parent capital allocation
Slide 4: Q2 2025 Results in Line with Our Expectations
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Q2 2025 Results in Line with Our Expectations Financial Results → Adjusted EBITDA1 of $681 million • Renewables SBU Adjusted EBITDA1 growth of 56% → Adjusted EPS1 of $0.51 Strategic Highlights → On track to add a total of 3.2 GW of new projects in full year 2025 •
Slide 5: Resilient to Changes in Renewables Policy, Including New Legislation, Additional Tariffs & IRS Guidelines
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Resilient to Changes in Renewables Policy, Including New Legislation, Additional Tariffs & Changes to IRS Guidelines Significant Protections Due to Proactive Recent Changes in US Policy Largely Actions Taken Over Last Several Years, Inconsequential for Vast Majori
Slide 6: Majority of Capacity Through 2029 Has No Exposure to Potential Changes in Tax Credit Policy
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Majority of Capacity Expected to be Completed Through 2029 has No Exposure to Potential Changes in Tax Credit Policy 2025-2029 Expected Capacity Additions 12 GW Backlog (Backlog + Pipeline) US Post-2027 International 2025-2027 Not Subject to Nearly All Safe Harbor
Slide 7: All Major Equipment for Future Projects Now On-Site or Coming From US-Based Suppliers
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS All Major Equipment for Future Projects Now On-Site or Coming From US- Based Suppliers Eliminated Potential Impact from Previously Announced Tariffs Projects will Comply with FEOC1 Restrictions 1. Foreign Entities of Concern. 7
Slide 8: AES Best Positioned to Serve Rapidly Growing Demand for Renewable Energy from Data Centers
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS AES Best Positioned to Serve Rapidly Growing Demand for Renewable Energy from Data Centers AES’ Market-Leading Position in Signed Data Center Demand1 Growing at 22% CAGR Agreements with Data Center Customers 2023-2030 (TWh) Utility Load 606 Growth 2.1 371 4,640 Re
Slide 9: Corporate PPA Market has a Long History of Adjusting for Market Conditions
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Corporate PPA Market has a Long History of Adjusting for Market Conditions Market Average PPA Prices1 ($/MWh) $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $- Q4 2018 Q4 2019 Q4 2020 Q4 2021 Q4 2022 Q4 2023 Q4 2024 Q2 2025 Wind Blended Solar Electricity Represents <10% of Total
Slide 10: Renewables Offer a Competitive LCOE Even Without Tax Credits
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Renewables Offer a Competitive Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) Even Without Tax Credits Unsubsidized LCOE by Technology, ($/MWh) Solar 1 $58 Solar + Storage 1 $91 CCGT Post-2028 COD 2 $107 Cost of New Gas Turbines has More than Doubled Over the Past Year 1. Lazard
Slide 11: Robust Growth Program at US Utilities
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Robust Growth Program at US Utilities → Making significant progress with generation buildout → On schedule with repowering two Petersburg units from coal to natural gas → Filed a petition for a regulatory rate review with the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission
Slide 12: Q2 2025 Financial Review
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Q2 2025 Financial Review → Q2 2025 financial results → 2025 guidance → 2025 Parent capital allocation plan → Long-term growth rates 12
Slide 13: Q2 2025 Financial Results
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Q2 2025 Financial Results $ in Millions Adjusted EBITDA1,2 Higher Adjusted EBITDA1,2 driven primarily by: +$23 • Contributions from new projects; and • Cost savings $681 $658 Partially offset by: • Prior year Warrior Run coal plant PPA monetization; • Sale of
Slide 14: Q2 2025 Financial Results: Adjusted EPS Increased 34%
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Q2 2025 Financial Results: Adjusted EPS1 Increased 34% $ Per Share $0.24 ($0.02) $0.51 ($0.09) $0.38 Q2 2024: 20% Q2 2025: 42% + New projects + Cost savings − Prior year Warrior Run coal plant PPA monetization Q2 2024 SBUs/Corporate Parent Interest Tax2 Q2 2025 1.
Slide 15: Q2 2025 Financial Results: Renewables
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Q2 2025 Financial Results: Renewables1 $ in Millions Adjusted EBITDA2,3 Higher Adjusted EBITDA2,3 driven primarily by: +$86 • Contributions from new projects; $240 • Cost savings; • Normalized hydrology in Colombia of $18 million; and $154 • The net effect of mo
Slide 16: Q2 2025 Financial Results: Utilities
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Q2 2025 Financial Results: Utilities $ in Millions Adjusted PTC1 Lower Adjusted PTC1 driven primarily by: • Planned outages; and -$26 • Sell-down of AES Ohio $83 $57 Q2 2024 Q2 2025 1. A non-GAAP financial measure. See Appendix for definition and reconciliation
Slide 17: Q2 2025 Financial Results: Energy Infrastructure
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Q2 2025 Financial Results: Energy Infrastructure1 $ in Millions Adjusted EBITDA2 Lower Adjusted EBITDA2 driven primarily by: -$49 • Lower revenues due to prior year Warrior Run coal plant PPA monetization; and $303 • Chile renewables segment change $254 Partia
Slide 18: Q2 2025 Financial Results: New Energy Technologies
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Q2 2025 Financial Results: New Energy Technologies $ in Millions Adjusted EBITDA1 Lower Adjusted EBITDA1 driven primarily by lower results at Fluence ($14) ($17) -$3 Q2 2024 Q2 2025 1. A non-GAAP financial measure. See Appendix for definition and reconciliation
Slide 19: 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS 2025 Adjusted EBITDA1 Guidance $ in Millions Year-to-Go Drivers $2,650- $2,850 $125 $185 ($73) $2,639 − Lower margins in Southland, Puerto Rico, and ($26) Dominican Republic + Cochrane ($100) + LTM capacity ownership additions + Mexico − AES Brasil availability +
Slide 20: 2025 Adjusted EPS Guidance
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS 2025 Adjusted EPS1 Guidance Year-to-Go Drivers $2.10- $0.19 $2.26 $2.14 ($0.03) ($0.01) ($0.11) + New projects FY 2024: 23% + Utilities growth FY 2025: 29%-31% + Colombia normalization + Cost savings − Energy Infrastructure FY 2024 YTD 2025 vs. SBUs/Corporate Pare
Slide 21: 2025 Parent Capital Allocation Plan
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS 2025 Parent Capital Allocation Plan $ in Millions Discretionary Cash – Sources Discretionary Cash – Uses ($2,615-$2,815) ($2,615-$2,815) $2,615- Ending Cash $2,815 $10 & Other $400- $300 Shareholder $500 Dividend3 $545 $500 $1,150- $1,250 Subsidiary Debt $1,660- R
Slide 22: Reaffirming Adjusted EBITDA Average Annual Growth of 5% to 7% Through 2027
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Reaffirming Adjusted EBITDA1 Average Annual Growth2 of 5% to 7% Through 2027 $ in Millions Renewables SBU Utilities SBU Energy Infrastructure SBU 19%- 21% $1,535 13%- 15% (9%)- (11%) $695 $635 2023 Guidance 2027 2023 Guidance 2027 2023 Guidance 2027 1. A non-GAAP
Slide 23: Conclusion
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Conclusion → On track to complete 3.2 GW of construction in full year 2025 → Signed 2 GW of new PPAs year-to-date → Backlog of 12 GW of signed PPAs is either international or safe harbored, and a majority will be completed by 2027 → Renewables Adjusted EBITDA1 gre
Slide 24: Appendix
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Appendix Parent Only Cash Flow & Liquidity Slides 25-26 Recourse & Non-Recourse Debt Slides 27-30 Q2 & YTD Adjusted EPS1 Roll-Up Slide 31 YTD Financial Results Slides 32-34 Modeling Disclosures Slides 35-38 2025 SBU Modeling Ranges Slide 39 2025-2027 Parent Capita
Slide 25: Parent Sources and Uses of Liquidity
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Parent Sources and Uses of Liquidity Q2 YTD $ in Millions 2024 2025 2024 2025 Sources Total Subsidiary Distributions1 $298 $557 $684 $787 Proceeds from Asset Sales, Net $11 $439 $26 $439 Financing Proceeds, Net $939 - $939 $796 Increased/(Decreased) Credit Facilit
Slide 26: Q2 & YTD 2025 Subsidiary Distributions
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Q2 & YTD 2025 Subsidiary Distributions1 $ in Millions Subsidiary Distributions1 by SBU Q2 2025 YTD 2025 Renewables $193 $271 Utilities $42 $109 Energy Infrastructure $92 $176 New Energy Technologies - $1 Corporate2 $230 $230 Total $557 $787 Top Subsidiary Distribu
Slide 27: Recourse Debt Summary
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Recourse Debt Summary $ in Millions, Except Percentages; as of June 30, 2025 Ratings SBU Principal Balance Interest Rate Maturity Moody’s/S&P/Fitch Parent Revolver Corporate $0 Term SOFR + 1.80% 8/23/27 Baa3/BBB-/BBB- Parent Revolver Corporate $0 Term SOFR + 1.85%
Slide 28: Q2 2025 Non-Recourse Debt Schedule
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Q2 2025 Non-Recourse Debt1 Schedule $ in Millions, Except Percentages; as of June 30, 2025 Debt Maturity and Amortization Schedule June 30, 2025 June 30, Total Balance Ownership 2025 Total 2030 and SBU/Business Country/State 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 (Ownership- Pe
Slide 29: Q2 2025 Non-Recourse Debt Schedule
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Q2 2025 Non-Recourse Debt1 Schedule $ in Millions, Except Percentages; as of June 30, 2025 Debt Maturity and Amortization Schedule June 30, 2025 June 30, Total Balance Ownership 2025 Total 2030 And SBU/Business Country/State 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 (Ownership- Pe
Slide 30: Interest Rate Exposure: Substantial Majority is Hedged
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Interest Rate Exposure: Substantial Majority is Hedged Through Swaps or Contractual Arrangements $ in Millions, as of June 30, 2025 Recourse Debt1 Non- Recourse Recourse Debt2 Debt2 $5,116 17% Long-Term Weighted Average All-in Cost 4.7% 5.5% Long-Term Weighted Ave
Slide 31: Q2 & YTD Adjusted EPS Roll-Up
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Q2 & YTD Adjusted EPS1 Roll-Up $ in Millions, Except Per Share Amounts Q2 2025 Q2 2024 Variance YTD 2025 YTD 2024 Variance Adjusted PTC1 Renewables $161 $115 $46 $159 $256 ($97) Utilities $57 $83 ($26) $178 $124 $54 Energy Infrastructure $148 $154 ($6) $300 $375 (
Slide 32: YTD 2025 Financial Results
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS YTD 2025 Financial Results $ in Millions Adjusted EBITDA1,2 Lower Adjusted EBITDA1,2 driven primarily by: -$26 • Prior year Warrior Run coal plant PPA monetization; and $1,298 $1,272 • Asset sales Partially offset by: • Contributions from new renewables projec
Slide 33: YTD 2025 Financial Results: Adjusted EPS Decreased $0.11
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS YTD 2025 Financial Results: Adjusted EPS1 Decreased $0.11 $ Per Share $0.04 $0.89 ($0.03) $0.78 − Prior year Warrior Run coal plant PPA ($0.12) monetization + New projects YTD 2024: 13% + Utilities growth YTD 2025: 33% + Higher availability YTD 2024 SBUs/Corporate
Slide 34: YTD 2025 Financial Results
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS YTD 2025 Financial Results1 $ in Millions YTD 2025 YTD 2024 Variance Drivers Adjusted EBITDA2 + New projects + Colombia normalization Renewables3 $401 $265 $136 + Cost savings + Chile renewables segment change − Sale of AES Brasil − Prior year revenues from Warrio
Slide 35: Q2 2025 Modeling Disclosures: Interest & Depreciation
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Q2 2025 Modeling Disclosures: Interest & Depreciation $ in Millions Depreciation, Amortization & Accretion of Interest Expense Interest Income Adjusted AROs PTC1 Attributable Ownership- Attributable Ownership- Attributable Ownership- Consolidated Consolidated Cons
Slide 36: Q2 2025 Modeling Disclosures: Debt, Cash & Construction Debt Facilities
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Q2 2025 Modeling Disclosures: Debt, Cash & Construction Debt Facilities $ in Millions Cash & Cash Equivalents, Restricted Cash, Short-Term Investments, Debt Total Debt as of June 30, 2025 Service Reserves & Other Deposits Consolidated Attributable to NCI Ownership
Slide 37: FY 2027 Net Debt Expectation
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS FY 2027 Net Debt1 Expectation $ in Millions 2027 Forecasted Net Debt1 Consolidated Attributable to NCI Ownership-Adjusted Renewables* $15,500-$17,100 ($3,800)-($4,400) $11,700-$12,700 Utilities $6,900-$7,500 ($1,900)-($2,100) $5,000-$5,400 Energy Infrastructure $4
Slide 38: 2025 Parent Free Cash Flow Expectations
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS 2025 Parent Free Cash Flow1 Expectations $ in Millions 2025 Subsidiary Distributions (a) $1,650-$1,750 Cash Interest (b) ($225) Corporate/Parent-Funded SBU Overhead ($235) Business Development/Taxes ($40) Cash for Development, General & Administrative and Tax (c)
Slide 39: 2025 SBU Adjusted EBITDA Modeling Ranges
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS 2025 SBU Adjusted EBITDA1 Modeling Ranges $ in Millions 2025 Adjusted EBITDA1 2024 Adjusted EBITDA1 Drivers of Growth Versus 2024 Modeling Ranges as of 2/28/25 + New projects + Colombia normalization Renewables2 $552 $890-$960 + Cost savings + Chile renewables seg
Slide 40: 2025-2027 Parent Capital Allocation Plan
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS 2025-2027 Parent Capital Allocation Plan $ in Millions Discretionary Cash – Sources Discretionary Cash – Uses ($6,065-$6,365) ($6,065-$6,365) $6,065- Ending Cash $800- $10 & Other $1,200 $6,365 $200 Shareholder $900- Dividend3 $3,600- $1,100 $1,640 $3,900 $3,815-
Slide 41: Foreign Currencies: Limited Exposure to Fluctuations in Exchange Rates
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Foreign Currencies: Limited Exposure to Fluctuations in Exchange Rates 2025-2027 Cumulative Exposure Annualized Impact1 of 10% USD Appreciation Composition by Currency on Adjusted PTC2,3 After Hedging Non-USD Currencies $ in Millions Argentine Peso (ARS) ($8) EUR,
Slide 42: 2025 Guidance Estimated Sensitivities
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS 2025 Guidance Estimated Sensitivities YTG 2025 10% appreciation of USD against following currencies is forecasted to have the following Adjusted EPS impacts: Average Rate Sensitivity Argentine Peso (ARS)1 1290.42 Less than ($0.01) Chilean Peso (CLP) 931.70 Less th
Slide 43: Reconciliations
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Reconciliations 43
Slide 44: Reconciliation of Q2 Adjusted PTC and Adjusted EPS
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Reconciliation of Q2 Adjusted PTC and Adjusted EPS1 Q2 2025 Q2 2024 Per Share (Diluted) Per Share (Diluted) Net of NCI2 Net of NCI2 $ in Millions, Except Per Share Amounts Net of NCI2 Net of NCI2 Income (Loss) from Continuing Operations, Net of Tax, Attributable t
Slide 45: Reconciliation of YTD Adjusted PTC and Adjusted EPS
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Reconciliation of YTD Adjusted PTC and Adjusted EPS1 YTD 2025 YTD 2024 Per Share (Diluted) Per Share (Diluted) Net of NCI2 Net of NCI2 $ in Millions, Except Per Share Amounts Net of NCI2 Net of NCI2 Income (Loss) from Continuing Operations, Net of Tax, Attributabl
Slide 46: Reconciliation of Q2 Adjusted EBITDA
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Reconciliation of Q2 Adjusted EBITDA1 $ in Millions Q2 2025 Q2 2024 Net Income (Loss) ($150) $153 Income Tax Expense (Benefit) $167 ($35) Interest Expense $352 $389 Interest Income ($70) ($88) Depreciation, Amortization, and Accretion of AROs $354 $315 EBITDA $653
Slide 47: Reconciliation of YTD Adjusted EBITDA
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Reconciliation of YTD Adjusted EBITDA1 $ in Millions YTD 2025 YTD 2024 Net Income (Loss) ($223) $431 Income Tax Expense (Benefit) $184 ($51) Interest Expense $694 $746 Interest Income ($139) ($193) Depreciation, Amortization, and Accretion of AROs $691 $633 EBITDA
Slide 48: Reconciliation of 2020 Adjusted PTC and Adjusted EPS
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Reconciliation of 2020 Adjusted PTC1 and Adjusted EPS1 FY 2020 $ in Millions, Except Per Share Amounts Net of NCI2 Per Share (Diluted) Net of NCI 2 Income (Loss) from Continuing Operations, Net of Tax, Attributable to AES and Diluted EPS $43 $0.06 Add: Income Tax
Slide 49: Reconciliation of FY Adjusted EBITDA
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Reconciliation of FY Adjusted EBITDA1 $ in Millions FY 2024 FY 2023 Net Income (Loss) $802 ($182) Income Tax Expense $59 $261 Interest Expense $1,485 $1,319 Interest Income ($381) ($551) Depreciation, Amortization, and Accretion of AROs $1,264 $1,147 EBITDA $3,229
Slide 50: Reconciliation of Parent Free Cash Flow
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Reconciliation of Parent Free Cash Flow1 $ in Millions 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities at the Parent Company2 $731 $608 $434 $570 $434 Subsidiary Distributions to QHCs Excluded from Schedule 13 $233 $247 $257 $47 $198 Subsidiary
Slide 51: Reconciliation of Subsidiary Distributions and Parent Company Liquidity
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Reconciliation of Subsidiary Distributions1 and Parent Company Liquidity1 $ in Millions Quarter Ended June 30, March 31, December 31, September 30, 2025 2025 2024 2024 Total Subsidiary Distributions1 to Parent & QHCs2 $557 $230 $715 $204 Total Return of Capital Di
Slide 52: Assumptions
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Assumptions Forecasted financial information is based on certain material assumptions. Such assumptions include, but are not limited to: (a) no unforeseen external events such as wars, depressions, or economic or political disruptions occur; (b) businesses continu
Slide 53: Definitions
CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Definitions Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP measure, is defined by the Company as earnings before interest income and expense, taxes, depreciation, amortizatio n, and accretion of AROs. We define Adjusted EBITDA as EBITDA adjusted for the impact of NCI and interest, t