Duke Energy Corporation (Holding Company) · NYSE:DUK
Duke Energy Corporation (Holding Company) — Corporate Update (March 2023)
25 slides from Duke Energy Corporation (Holding Company)'s corporate update, Mar 22, 2023
Slide 1: Carolinas Resource Plans Stakeholder Meeting 3
Duke Energy Carolinas Resource Plans Stakeholder Meeting 3 Virtual Meeting – March 22, 2023 *Please note, with the exception of the South Carolina-specific session, this meeting is being recorded. Presentations will be posted on the IRP website, and discussion portions will be kept for internal purp
Slide 2: Meeting Ground Rules
Meeting Ground Rules • Respect each other: Help us to collectively uphold respect for each other's experiences and opinions, even in difficult conversations. We need everyone’s wisdom to achieve better understanding and develop robust solutions. • Focus on today’s topics: Please respect the scope of
Slide 3: Attendee Roles: Observers
Attendee Roles: Observers • Please use the “Q&A” feature, on the menu at the bottom of your screen, to submit questions to presenters and Technical Representatives. Please be respectful and focus on issues, not people. • Questions/comments submitted will be seen by all participants. • We will addres
Slide 4: Attendee Roles: Technical Representative
Attendee Roles: Technical Representative • May utilize the camera and unmute themselves. • To manage participation, please use the “raise hand” feature to indicate you would like to join the conversation.
Slide 5: Additional Participation
Additional Participation Meeting materials/recordings will be uploaded to the website: Meeting recordings (Q&A portions of meetings will be removed to adhere to the non- www.duke-energy.com/carolinas-irp attribution rule) and meeting summaries will be uploaded to the website for Information/feedback
Slide 6: 2023 Resource Planning Stakeholder Engagement Overview
2023 Resource Planning Stakeholder Engagement Overview Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Meeting 1 Meeting 4 Final Modeling and Feb. 22 Mid/Late-April Document Preparation Introduction & Topics TBD Process Overview IRP Filing Meeting 3 (PSCSC) Technical Session: End of April: March 22 Aug. 15 Load For
Slide 7: Agenda
Agenda 9:30am - 10:15am: Natural Gas Price Forecast Methodology 10:15am – 11:15am: Coal Retirements Methodology 11:15am: Open for additional SC Comments and/or Questions 11:30am: Adjourn* * Representatives will remain available for SC comments and/or questions, if necessary, beyond the meeting adjou
Slide 8: Introductions
Introductions Duke Energy Technical Representatives: Stakeholder Technical Representatives: Mike Quinto Dustin Metz Director, IRP Advanced Analytics – Carolinas IRP & Analytics Engineer, NCUC Public Staff Thomas Beatty Blaise Michna Senior Engineer – Production Cost Modeling Public Utility E
Slide 9: Natural Gas Price Forecast Methodology
NATURAL GAS PRICE FORECAST METHODOLOGY
Slide 10: Background and Level Setting
Background and Level Setting Purpose of this session: Discuss natural gas commodity price forecast The natural gas commodity price forecast is a key input to the modeling process Can influence the selection of resources, operation of system, and portfolios cost sensitivity to natural gas prici
Slide 11: 2023 Resource Planning Methodological Approaches
2023 Resource Planning Methodological Approaches 2020 IRP - PSCSC Ordered Methodology 18 months of market-based commodity prices 18-month transition from market-based commodity pricing to a fundamentals-based forecast Fundamentals forecast should be the average of at least two fundamentals-b
Slide 12: Fundamentals-based Natural Gas Price
Averaged Fundamentals Fundamentals-based Natural Gas Price $13.00 Commodity Price [nominal $/mmBTU] $12.00 $11.00 $10.00 $9.00 $8.00 $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051 Fund 1 (S22) Fund 2 (F22) Fund 3 (F22) Fund 4 (F22) Avg
Slide 13: Transition from Market to Fundamentals
Transition from Market to Fundamentals $7.00 $6.50 Natural Gas Price Forecast - Transition Schedule $6.00 Comparison $5.50 $5.00 $7.00 Commodity Price [nominal$/mmBTU] $4.50 $6.50 $4.00 Selection of Natural Gas Resources $3.50 $6.00 $3.00 $5.50 Market Avg Fundamental $5.00 $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 10
Slide 14: Seeking Feedback
Seeking Feedback Feedback requested by April 5, 2023: Use of fundamental providers Averaging of fundamentals Transition schedule Commodity price sensitivity analyses Please send to: DukeCarolinas@gpisd.net | 14
Slide 15: Modeling Methodology for Coal Retirement Analysis
MODELING METHODOLOGY FOR COAL RETIREMENT ANALYSIS
Slide 16: Coal in the Carolinas
Coal in the Carolinas Coal assets in the DEC and DEP fleet have provided reliable capacity and energy to customers for decades Remaining coal assets continue to provide dispatchable energy that is especially critical during high load winter conditions With the deterioration of the domestic coa
Slide 17: Background
Background 2020 IRP 2022 Carbon Plan 2023 Resource Plans Iterative Production Endogenous within Endogenous within Cost Modeling Capacity Expansion Capacity Expansion Model Model + updated inputs Economic coal retirement analysis was performed as a part of the 2020 IRPs PSCSC Order on the 2020 IR
Slide 18: General Retirement Analysis Considerations
General Retirement Analysis Considerations Economic Analysis Maintaining or Improving Reliability Cost of Maintaining Retiring Capacity Planning to a reserve margin Incremental Maintenance CapEx Portfolio reliability validation Ongoing Fixed Costs Transmission impacts of retiring cap
Slide 19: Coal Unit Statistics
Coal Unit Statistics Maximum Unit Unit Fuel Natural Gas Capacity Capacity In-Service Depreciable Unit Utility Capabilities Co-firing (Winter (Summer Date Lives1 Capability MW) MW) Belews Creek 1 Coal/Gas DEC 50% 1,110 1,110 1975 2037 Belews Creek 2 Coal/Gas DEC 50% 1,110 1,110 1975 2037 Cliffside 5
Slide 20: Coal Retirement Analysis Methodology
Coal Retirement Analysis Methodology Initial Coal Unit Development of Coal Unit Determination of Operations Run Coal Unit Cost Retirement Runs Optimal Coal Initial system simulation Based on anticipated Costs input into capacity Retirement Dates to determine coal unit operations, cost to expan
Slide 21: Economic and Reliability Risk Considerations
Economic and Reliability Risk Considerations Fuel Supply Chain Risk Declines in coal supply and transportation flexibility and market uncertainty create future risks for affordability and reliability Due to decreases in demand (mostly resulting from competitive prices from other resources), th
Slide 22: Seeking Feedback
Seeking Feedback Requesting feedback by April 5, 2023: Use of and techniques of evaluating economic retirements within capacity expansion modeling Cost considerations of retiring and replacement resources Approaches for ensuring reliability and executability of transition Other economic an
Slide 23: Additional SC-specific Comments and Questions
South Carolina Session: Additional SC-specific Comments and Questions Heather Shirley Smith Vice President, Regulatory Affairs and Policy (SC) Leigh Tondini Utility Strategy Director (SC) Sam Wellborn Associate General Counsel (SC) Earlier Identified Technical Representatives South Carolina Se
Slide 24: Additional Participation
Additional Participation Meeting materials/recordings will be uploaded to the website: Meeting recordings (Q&A portions of meetings will be removed to adhere to the non- www.duke-energy.com/carolinas-irp attribution rule) and meeting summaries will be uploaded to the website for Information/feedback
Slide 25: Thank You
Se | GREAT PLAINS | tetterEneray i] | INSTITUTE Better Word. THANK YOU