Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company) · NYSE:DUK
Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company) — Corporate Update (May 2023)
92 slides from Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company)'s corporate update, May 31, 2023
Slide 1: Carolinas Resource Plans Stakeholder Meeting 4
Duke Energy Carolinas Resource Plans Stakeholder Meeting 4 Virtual Meeting – May 31, 2023 *Please note, with the exception of the South Carolina-specific session, this meeting is being recorded. Presentations will be posted on the IRP website, and discussion portions will be kept for internal purpos
Slide 2: Meeting Ground Rules
Meeting Ground Rules • Respect each other: Help us to collectively uphold respect for each other's experiences and opinions, even in difficult conversations. We need everyone’s wisdom to achieve better understanding and develop robust solutions. • Focus on today’s topics: Please respect the scope of
Slide 3: Attendee Roles: Observers
Attendee Roles: Observers • Please use the “Q&A” feature, on the menu at the bottom of your screen, to submit questions to presenters and Technical Representatives. Please be respectful and focus on issues, not people. • Questions/comments submitted will be seen by all participants. • We will addres
Slide 4: Attendee Roles: Technical Representative
Attendee Roles: Technical Representative • May utilize the camera and unmute themselves. • To manage participation, please use the “raise hand” feature to indicate you would like to join the conversation.
Slide 5: Additional Participation
Additional Participation Meeting materials/recordings will be uploaded to the website: Meeting recordings (Q&A portions of meetings will be removed to adhere to the non- www.duke-energy.com/carolinas-irp attribution rule) and meeting summaries will be uploaded to the website for Information/feedback
Slide 6: 2023 Resource Planning Stakeholder Engagement Overview
2023 Resource Planning Stakeholder Engagement Overview Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Meeting 1 Meeting 3 Meeting 4 Meeting 5 IRP Filing Feb. 22 March 22 May 31 June 13 (PSCSC) Introduction & Model Assumptions: Model Assumptions: Summary of Key Aug. 15 Process Overview ▪ Natural Gas Price ▪ Resourc
Slide 7: Agenda
Agenda 9:00am – 9:15am: Introduction 9:15am – 10:00am: Load Forecast Update 10:00am – 10:15am: Break 10:15am – 11:15am: Resource Adequacy Study 11:15am – 12:00pm: Modeling IRA Impact 12:00pm – 12:30pm: Open for additional South Carolina comments/questions | 7
Slide 8: Introductions
Introductions Duke Energy Technical Representatives: Stakeholder Technical Representatives: ▪ Tom Davis ▪ Adam Helsel Principal Planning Analyst– Carolinas IRP & Analytics Senior Utilities Engineer, Fujifilm Diosynth Biotechnologies ▪ Nick Wintermantel ▪ Bob Hinton Utility and Energy Consultant – As
Slide 9: Load forecast update
Load forecast update Ben Passty – Principal Load Forecasting Analyst
Slide 10: 2023 Load Forecast Drivers
2023 Load Forecast Drivers Long-term: Short-term: ▪ Population growth and the impact on residential customers ▪ Weather challenges ▪ Electric vehicle adoptions ▪ Economic and ▪ Significant economic population challenges development growth in the Carolinas Draft: Preliminary findings. | 10
Slide 11: Real GDP Growth
Real GDP Growth Real GDP forecasted growth 2023 2024 Fall 2022 Update (July) 1.9% 2.7% Spring 2023 Update (January) 1.3% 2.1% April 2023 Consensus 1.2% 0.9% Draft: Preliminary findings. | 11
Slide 12: Economic Trends
Economic Trends Labor Market averaging more than Surveys of Industrial sentiment 300,000 net new jobs per month have turned toward business contraction The median forecast calls for Real GDP growth of 1.0% during this The strong jobs growth in the calendar year private sector has not spread to the p
Slide 13: Load Forecast Drivers from 2022 Resource Plans
Load Forecast Drivers from 2022 Resource Plans Draft: Preliminary findings. | 13
Slide 14: Load Forecast Drivers from 2022 Resource Plans (Snapshots)
Load Forecast Drivers from 2022 Resource Plans (Snapshots) Draft: Preliminary findings. | 14
Slide 15: Large Site Development
Large Site Development ▪ Economic Development has driven customers to DEC’s and DEP’s service territories ▪ Large Account Management tracks new customers that will potentially connect to the system ▪ Only Projects that have started construction are generally reflected in load forecast ▪ Currently re
Slide 16: EV Forecast - 2022 vs 2023 Resource Plans
EV Forecast - 2022 vs 2023 Resource Plans Vehicles in Operation - All Duties % of New Vehicle Sales - LDV 1,000,000 60.0% 900,000 50.0% 800,000 700,000 40.0% 600,000 500,000 30.0% 400,000 20.0% 300,000 200,000 10.0% 100,000 - 0.0% 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Slide 17: Customer Growth Rate Historical and Projected
Customer Growth Rate Historical and Projected | 17
Slide 18: 2023 Load Forecast Conclusion and Review
2023 Load Forecast Conclusion and Review Short-term fragility of weather and economic conditions ▪ Variability of the reading on the economy Measurement of long-term forces that will support the forecast has increased: ▪ Significant economic development growth ▪ Population growth ▪ Electric vehicles
Slide 19: Break
Break
Slide 20: Resource adequacy study
Resource adequacy study
Slide 21: Astrapé Consulting
Astrapé Consulting ▪ Owner and Exclusive Licensor of SERVM ▪ Nation’s leading resource adequacy model ▪ Full hourly economic commitment and dispatch for thousands of weather, unit performance, economic growth scenarios ▪ Resource Adequacy Studies ▪ Planning Reserve Margin, ELCC, Demand Response Eval
Slide 22: PRM Study Methodology
PRM Study Methodology 1.0 ▪ Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) - defined 0.9 as the percentage by which the total 0.8 capacity of system resources exceeds the LOLE (Days Per Year) forecasted peak load 0.7 0.6 ▪ Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) – number of days in a year that customer load is shed 0.5 0.4
Slide 23: SERVM Framework
SERVM Framework ▪ Capture Uncertainty in the Following Variables for the 2027 Study Year • Weather: 43 years of weather history (1980-2022) with equal probability of occurrence ➢ Impact on Load and Resources (hydro, wind, PV, temp derates on thermal resources) • Economic Load Forecast Error: Distrib
Slide 24: 2023 Resource Adequacy Key Drivers
2023 Resource Adequacy Key Drivers ▪ Cold Weather Load Response and Long Term Economic Load Forecast Error ▪ Generating Availability Data System (GADS) Data for DEC and DEP (5-year period 2018-2022) ▪ Weather related forced outages for DEC and DEP ▪ Updates to Neighbor Resource Plans Draft: Prelimin
Slide 25: Load Modeling
Load Modeling ONSULTING em pl
Slide 26: Approach for Incorporating Weather Uncertainty on Load
Approach for Incorporating Weather Uncertainty on Load 1. Develop Load/Weather Relationship Collect Recent Hourly Loads (01/2018-12/2022) Collect Recent Weather Data (01/2018-12/2022) Train Using Neural Network Software 2. Apply Relationship Collect 1980-2022 Temperature Data to Create Synthetic Loa
Slide 27: Load/Weather Modeling
Load/Weather Modeling ▪ Monthly Neural Net Training Data ▪ Weather Stations (2018-2022) ▪ Hourly Temperature ▪ 24, and 48 Hour Prior Temperature ▪ Day of Week ▪ Time of Day (1-24) ▪ Actual Loads – 2018-2022 ▪ Scaled to 2022 equivalent loads DEC Weighting DEP-E Weighting DEP-W Weighting Charlotte, NC
Slide 28: DEC Training Data All Hours 2018-2022
DEC Training Data All Hours 2018-2022 Draft: Preliminary findings. 28
Slide 29: DEC Load Comparison- Winter Weekdays
DEC Load Comparison- Winter Weekdays Draft: Preliminary findings. 29
Slide 30: Updated Synthetic Loads DEC
Updated Synthetic Loads DEC Draft: Preliminary findings. 30
Slide 31: DEP-E Training Data All Hours 2018-2022
DEP-E Training Data All Hours 2018-2022 Draft: Preliminary findings. 31
Slide 32: DEP-E Load Comparison- Winter Weekdays
DEP-E Load Comparison- Winter Weekdays Draft: Preliminary findings. 32
Slide 33: Updated Synthetic Loads DEP-E
Updated Synthetic Loads DEP-E Draft: Preliminary findings. 33
Slide 34: DEP-W Training Data All Hours 2018-2022
DEP-W Training Data All Hours 2018-2022 Draft: Preliminary findings. 34
Slide 35: DEP-W Load Comparison- Winter Weekdays
DEP-W Load Comparison- Winter Weekdays Draft: Preliminary findings. 35
Slide 36: Updated Synthetic Loads DEP-W
Updated Synthetic Loads DEP-W F Draft: Preliminary findings. 36
Slide 37: Updated Economic Load Forecast Error
Updated Economic Load Forecast Error 2023 Study 2020 Study - Asymmetrical Over/Under Load Forecast Over/Under Load Forecast Probability Probability (Positive is Under Forecast) (Positive is Under Forecast) -4.2% 10% -1.94% 27% -2.7% 25% 0.0% 46% 0% 40% 2.0% 15% 2.31% 27% 3.1% 10% Draft: Preliminary
Slide 38: Outage Modeling
Outage Modeling ONSULTING em pl
Slide 39: Unit Outage Modeling
Unit Outage Modeling ▪ Historical Data: January 2018 - October 2022 ▪ Full Outages ▪ Time to Repair ▪ Time to Failure ▪ Partial Outages ▪ Time to Repair ▪ Time to Failure ▪ Derate Percentage ▪ Startup Failures ▪ Maintenance Outages ▪ Planned Outages based on projections ▪ Reviewed and Modeled Increm
Slide 40: Modeled Forced Outages as a Function Temperature
Modeled Forced Outages as a Function Temperature Combined DEC and DEP Modeled Outages based on 5 Years of Historical Data F Draft: Preliminary findings. 40
Slide 41: Solar Modeling
Solar Modeling ONSULTING em pl
Slide 42: Solar Capacity Projections – 2027 Study Year
Solar Capacity Projections – 2027 Study Year DEC Capacity DEP Capacity Solar Type ILR (MW) (MW) Fixed 1.3 1,142 3,161 Fixed 1.6 121 239 Tracking 1.3 575 179 Tracking 1.6 258 164 Bifacial 1.4 809 765 Total 2,905 4,507 Draft: Preliminary findings. 42
Slide 43: Solar Profile Overview
Solar Profile Overview ▪ Solar profiles were created for each of the 102 locations on the following slide ▪ Solar irradiance data was downloaded from NREL NSRDB for 1998 – 2020 for each of the 102 locations ▪ Fixed tilt, monofacial single axis tracking, and bifacial single axis tracking profiles wer
Slide 44: Solar Locations
Solar Locations Draft: Preliminary findings. 44
Slide 45: Yancey, NC Average August Daily Shape by Technology
Yancey, NC Average August Daily Shape by Technology *Shown with a 1.3 ILR Draft: Preliminary findings. 45
Slide 46: Yancey, NC August Daily Shape Example
Yancey, NC August Daily Shape Example *Shown with a 1.0 ILR ** 100 August daily shapes selected at random as an example (1,333 total) *** Bold black line is the average daily shape of all August shapes from 1980 – 2022 Draft: Preliminary findings. 46
Slide 47: Demand Response Modeling
Demand Response Modeling ONSULTING em pl
Slide 48: DEC Demand Response Modeling
DEC Demand Response Modeling Summer Capacity Winter Capacity (MW) (MW) DEC Energy Wise Business 12 17 Interruptible Service 53 51 Power Manager Residential 658 125 PowerShare Generator 5 4 PowerShare Mandatory 468 435 IVVC* 190 190 Total 1,386 822 *Integrated Voltage/VAR Control Draft: Preliminary f
Slide 49: DEP Demand Response Modeling
DEP Demand Response Modeling Summer Capacity Winter Capacity (MW) (MW) Demand Response 48 30 Automation IVVC* 149 149 Energy Wise Home 497 77 Energy Wise Business 5 10 Large Load Curtailable 207 168 Total 906 434 *Integrated Voltage/VAR Control Draft: Preliminary findings. 49
Slide 50: Neighbor Modeling
Neighbor Modeling ONSULTING em pl
Slide 51: Regional Resource Mix Changes
Regional Resource Mix Changes ▪ Updated surrounding region resource mix for the 2027 study year ▪ Coal Retirements ▪ Increases in Solar, Wind, and Storage ▪ Significant Cold Weather Load Response ▪ Target 0.1 for each surrounding BA ▪ Shifts resource adequacy risk to the winter providing less market
Slide 52: Results
Results
Slide 53: 2023 Resource Adequacy Results
2023 Resource Adequacy Results in a Increase from 17% to 22% s tudy duc d i o ssistanc oad Fo cast o nit uta int apacity is Draft: Preliminary findings. 53
Slide 54: Base vs. Island Case Results
Base vs. Island Case Results DEC DEP Combined Case Base Case 20.75% 23.25% 22.00% Island Case 28.50% 26.00% 24.50% Draft: Preliminary findings. 54
Slide 55: LOLE by Month – Combined Case
LOLE by Month – Combined Case Draft: Preliminary findings. 55
Slide 56: Modeling IRA Impact
Modeling IRA Impact BUILDING A SMARTER ENERGY FUTURE ®
Slide 57: Inflation Reduction Act
Inflation Reduction Act The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 makes the single largest investment in climate and energy in American history, enabling America to tackle the climate crisis, advancing environmental justice, securing America’s position as a world leader in domestic clean energy manu
Slide 58: Incentives for Modeling
Incentives for Modeling Investment Tax Credit (48E) Production Tax Credit (45Y) ▪ Investment Tax Credit (ITC) is a capital credit ▪ Production Tax Credit (PTC) is an O&M type credit ▪ ITC is expressed in percentage – 30% ITC translates into about ▪ PTC is expressed as a cent/kWh or dollar/MWh and is
Slide 59: Potential Ranges of ITC/PTC
Potential Ranges of ITC/PTC <5 MW solar, wind and associated storage can receive up to 70% ITC with statutory limits Draft: Preliminary findings. | 59
Slide 60: Energy Communities
Energy Communities Coal Closure Category Statistical Area Category Brownfield Category DEC/DEP may have some potential DEC/DEP have several potential DEC/DEP are projected to have no small sites, but more study is sites with coal already retired or coal sites in this category. warranted, and most si
Slide 61: Domestic Content
Domestic Content Qualified Facility An energy project satisfies the domestic-content requirement if it meets the two requirements below • 100% of all iron and steel components must be produced in the U.S. ▪ Steel or Iron Requirement – 100% of all of the steel and iron must be • 40% of all “manufactu
Slide 62: Current PTC/ITC Supply Side Modeling Assumptions
Current PTC/ITC Supply Side Modeling Assumptions Assumption of no credit transfers or discount in modeling Baseline of Wage and Apprenticeship for all credits; no domestic content assumed Generation Alternatives IRA Incentives Modeled in Resource Plan Incentive Phase Out Standalone Solar (45Y) Off S
Slide 63: IRA Customer Impacts
IRA Customer Impacts The IRA will lower the cost of the Utility customers will receive Duke Energy will continue to energy transition for customers the credits – every dollar will maximize customer benefits flow back to our customers from the IRA as further guidance from Treasury is received Draft:
Slide 64: Additional SC-specific Comments and Questions
South Carolina Session: Additional SC-specific Comments and Questions ▪ Leigh Tondini Utility Strategy Director (SC) ▪ Sam Wellborn Associate General Counsel (SC) Earlier Identified Technical Representatives South Carolina Session | 6 4
Slide 65: Additional Participation
Additional Participation Meeting materials/recordings will be uploaded to the website: Meeting recordings (Q&A portions of meetings will be removed to adhere to the non- www.duke-energy.com/carolinas-irp attribution rule) and meeting summaries will be uploaded to the website for Information/feedback
Slide 66: Thank You
— 5@ | GREAT PLAINS | Better Energy. a INSTITUTE Better World THANK YOU
Slide 67: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 68: Updated Synthetic Loads Combined
Updated Synthetic Loads Combined Draft: Preliminary findings. 68
Slide 69: DEC Winter Morning Regression
DEC Winter Morning Regression Draft: Preliminary findings. 69
Slide 70: Updated Synthetic Loads DEC
Updated Synthetic Loads DEC Draft: Preliminary findings. 70
Slide 71: Updated Synthetic Loads DEP-E
Updated Synthetic Loads DEP-E Draft: Preliminary findings. 71
Slide 72: DEP-E Winter Morning Regression
DEP-E Winter Morning Regression Draft: Preliminary findings. 72
Slide 73: Updated Synthetic Loads DEP-W
Updated Synthetic Loads DEP-W Draft: Preliminary findings. 73
Slide 74: DEP-W Winter Morning Regression
DEP-W Winter Morning Regression Draft: Preliminary findings. 74
Slide 75: Combined Base Case – 12 x 24 EUE
Combined Base Case – 12 x 24 EUE Draft: Preliminary findings. 75
Slide 76: Neighbor Resource Portfolio Changes
Neighbor Resource Portfolio Changes Winter risk increasing in the region as solar is added Draft: Preliminary findings. 76
Slide 77: Net Imports During EUE Hours
External Imports During EUE Hours Net Imports During EUE Hours Sum of DEC and DEP 3000 2500 2000 Net Imports MW 1500 1000 500 0 32000 34000 36000 38000 40000 42000 44000 46000 Load MW Average: 212 MW during EUE Hours Draft: Preliminary findings. 77
Slide 78: Annual Capacity Factor Comparison – NC Sites
Annual Capacity Factor Comparison – NC Sites Fixed Monofacial Single Axis Tracking Bifacial Single Axis Tracking Fixed Monofacial Single Axis Tracking Bifacial Single Axis Tracking Alamance, NC 23.4 28.4 30.0 Lenoir Kinston, NC 23.6 28.6 30.2 Alexander, NC 23.4 28.4 29.9 Lincoln, NC 23.7 28.9 30.4 A
Slide 79: Annual Capacity Factor Comparison – SC Sites
Annual Capacity Factor Comparison – SC Sites Fixed Monofacial Single Axis Tracking Bifacial Single Axis Tracking Abbeville, SC 23.8 29.0 30.6 Anderson, SC 24.0 29.2 30.8 Cherokee, SC 23.8 29.0 30.5 Chester, SC 23.6 28.8 30.4 Chesterfield, SC 23.7 28.7 30.3 Clarendon, SC 24.4 29.6 31.2 Darlington, SC
Slide 80: Fixed – January Average Shape
Fixed – January Average Shape *Shown with a 1.3 ILR Draft: Preliminary findings. 80
Slide 81: Fixed – August Average Shape
Fixed – August Average Shape *Shown with a 1.3 ILR Draft: Preliminary findings. 81
Slide 82: Yancey, NC August Daily Shape Example
Yancey, NC August Daily Shape Example *Shown with a 1.3 ILR ** 100 August daily shapes selected at random as an example (1,333 total) *** Bold black line is the average daily shape of all August shapes from 1980 – 2022 Draft: Preliminary findings. 82
Slide 83: Monofacial Single Axis Tracking – January Average Shape
Monofacial Single Axis Tracking – January Average Shape *Shown with a 1.3 ILR Draft: Preliminary findings. 83
Slide 84: Monofacial Single Axis Tracking – August Average Shape
Monofacial Single Axis Tracking – August Average Shape *Shown with a 1.3 ILR Draft: Preliminary findings. 84
Slide 85: Bifacial Single Axis Tracking – January Average Shape
Bifacial Single Axis Tracking – January Average Shape *Shown with a 1.3 ILR Draft: Preliminary findings. 85
Slide 86: Bifacial Single Axis Tracking – August Average Shape
Bifacial Single Axis Tracking – August Average Shape *Shown with a 1.3 ILR Draft: Preliminary findings. 86
Slide 87: Conventional Hydro and Pumped Storage Modeling
Conventional Hydro and Pumped Storage Modeling
Slide 88: DEC Modeled Capacity by Month
DEC Modeled Capacity by Month Draft: Preliminary findings. 88
Slide 89: DEC Hydro Energy by Weather Year
DEC Hydro Energy by Weather Year Draft: Preliminary findings. 89
Slide 90: DEP Modeled Capacity by Month
DEP Modeled Capacity by Month Draft: Preliminary findings. 90
Slide 91: DEP Hydro Energy by Weather Year
DEP Hydro Energy by Weather Year Draft: Preliminary findings. 91
Slide 92: DEC Pumped Storage
DEC Pumped Storage Reservoir Capacity Pumping Reservoir Unit Name Generating (MW) Capacity (MW) Capacity (MWh) Hours Bad Creek 1,640 1,500 35,192 21.5 Jocassee 780 820 15,210 19.5 Total 2,420 Draft: Preliminary findings. 92