Bank Of Greece Sa · ATHEX:TELL
Bank Of Greece Sa — Technical Presentation (September 2022)
23 slides from Bank Of Greece Sa's technical presentation, Sep 28, 2022
Slide 1: International sanctions and the Dollar: Evidence from trade invoicing
Introduction Descriptives trade Descriptives currencies Impact of sanctions Reserves Dual-use goods Banks Conclusion International sanctions and the Dollar: Evidence from trade invoicing Antoine Berthou Banque de France 28 septembre 2022 Opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessa
Slide 2: International role of the US dollar
Introduction Descriptives trade Descriptives currencies Impact of sanctions Reserves Dual-use goods Banks Conclusion International role of the US dollar The international role of the US dollar has been important for decades : • It represents about 40% of global trade (Gopinath, Jackson Hole 2016 ; B
Slide 3: Sanctions undermining the US dollar?
Introduction Descriptives trade Descriptives currencies Impact of sanctions Reserves Dual-use goods Banks Conclusion Sanctions undermining the US dollar ? This paper explores the impact sanctions on Russia by 2014 on currency invoicing [Still very preliminary !] Trade under lockdown Antoine Berthou
Slide 4: International sanctions on Russia (2014-2020)
Introduction Descriptives trade Descriptives currencies Impact of sanctions Reserves Dual-use goods Banks Conclusion International sanctions on Russia (2014-2020) • Start in March 2014 after invasion of parts of Ukraine • Progressively strengthened over time (especially by the US) : interference wit
Slide 5: International trade impact?
Introduction Descriptives trade Descriptives currencies Impact of sanctions Reserves Dual-use goods Banks Conclusion International trade impact ? • Russian import barriers : restrictions / bans on imports of agriculture and agro-food products from sanctioning countries → evidence of negative impact
Slide 6: Impact on USD invoicing by non-US firms?
Introduction Descriptives trade Descriptives currencies Impact of sanctions Reserves Dual-use goods Banks Conclusion Impact on USD invoicing by non-US firms ? • Demand for dollars in Russia declines due to policies and the threat of foreign assets being seized [Demand-side channel] • Frictions on th
Slide 7: What this paper does
Introduction Descriptives trade Descriptives currencies Impact of sanctions Reserves Dual-use goods Banks Conclusion What this paper does Provide a first evidence on the impact on international sanctions on currency invoicing. • Empirical analysis based on detailed micro-level trade data • French cu
Slide 8: We find that (so far):
Introduction Descriptives trade Descriptives currencies Impact of sanctions Reserves Dual-use goods Banks Conclusion We find that (so far) : • The probability of USD invoicing decreases after 2014 while the probability of rubles invoicing increases • Part of this effect is explained by the changes i
Slide 9: Aggregate exports to Russia declined
Introduction Descriptives trade Descriptives currencies Impact of sanctions Reserves Dual-use goods Banks Conclusion Aggregate exports to Russia declined • In 2020, French exports to Russia had declined by about 45% compared to the pre-sanctions period. Figure : French total exports to Russia 23 10.
Slide 10: Changes in the composition of exporters
Introduction Descriptives trade Descriptives currencies Impact of sanctions Reserves Dual-use goods Banks Conclusion Changes in the composition of exporters • Composition effect : The number of French exporters to Russia almost halved but the average size of exporters increased Figure : The changing
Slide 11: Changes in the composition of currencies
Introduction Descriptives trade Descriptives currencies Impact of sanctions Reserves Dual-use goods Banks Conclusion Changes in the composition of currencies Figure : Share of currencies in French exports to Russia EUR Other RUB USD EUR Other RUB USD 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015
Slide 12: Changes in the composition of currencies
Introduction Descriptives trade Descriptives currencies Impact of sanctions Reserves Dual-use goods Banks Conclusion Changes in the composition of currencies Figure : Share of currencies in French exports to Russia (continuing transactions) 8.5 62 35 34 8 60 33 7.5 32 58 7 31 6.5 56 30 2010 2012 201
Slide 13: Sanctions impact on trade
Introduction Descriptives trade Descriptives currencies Impact of sanctions Reserves Dual-use goods Banks Conclusion Sanctions impact on trade Three empirical models comparing the export performance of French firms in treated (Russia) versus non-treated (United States, robustness = OECD) countries o
Slide 14: Sanctions impact on trade: event study
Introduction Descriptives trade Descriptives currencies Impact of sanctions Reserves Dual-use goods Banks Conclusion Sanctions impact on trade : event study Figure : Event graph : Impact of 2014 sanctions on Russia on firm-level exports .01 .2 Coefficient (dashed lines = 95% CI) Coefficient (dashed
Slide 15: Sanctions impact on currency invoicing: event study
Introduction Descriptives trade Descriptives currencies Impact of sanctions Reserves Dual-use goods Banks Conclusion Sanctions impact on currency invoicing : event study Figure : Event graph : probability to invoice in USD following sanctions in 2014 in Russia (continuing exporters) .02 .04 .06 Coef
Slide 16: Controlling for international reserves
Introduction Descriptives trade Descriptives currencies Impact of sanctions Reserves Dual-use goods Banks Conclusion Controlling for international reserves Figure : Russia : Composition of international reserves EUR GBP Other YEN USD 1 .8 .6 .4 .2 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Slide 17: Controlling for international reserves
Introduction Descriptives trade Descriptives currencies Impact of sanctions Reserves Dual-use goods Banks Conclusion Controlling for international reserves Table : Impact of sanctions : currency invoicing, controlling for reserves (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Dep. var. Dollar Euro Ruble Exporters All Con
Slide 18: Dual-use goods
Introduction Descriptives trade Descriptives currencies Impact of sanctions Reserves Dual-use goods Banks Conclusion Dual-use goods 1,272 Dual-use goods identified in Regulation (EU) No 428/2009 of the European Council of 5 may 2009 • Available concordance between Dual use goods classification and p
Slide 19: Dual-use goods: Export probability
Introduction Descriptives trade Descriptives currencies Impact of sanctions Reserves Dual-use goods Banks Conclusion Dual-use goods : Export probability • Interaction term between Russia Sanctions by 2014 and Dual use goods dummy Table : Impact of sanctions : Export probability and dual use goods (1
Slide 20: Dual-use goods: Firm-level exports
Introduction Descriptives trade Descriptives currencies Impact of sanctions Reserves Dual-use goods Banks Conclusion Dual-use goods : Firm-level exports Table : Impact of sanctions : Firm-level exports and dual use goods (1) (2) (3) (4) Dep. var. Ln Export (fpjt) - Ln Export (fpjt-1) Destinations RU
Slide 21: Dual-use goods: Currency invoicing
Introduction Descriptives trade Descriptives currencies Impact of sanctions Reserves Dual-use goods Banks Conclusion Dual-use goods : Currency invoicing Table : Impact of sanctions : Dual use goods, firms exporting 10 years in Russia (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Dep. var. Dollar Euro Ruble a a a RU sanct
Slide 22: Sanctioned banks
Introduction Descriptives trade Descriptives currencies Impact of sanctions Reserves Dual-use goods Banks Conclusion Sanctioned banks • Large French banking group sanctioned by the US administration in 2014 due to transactions in US dollars with sanctioned country (Sudan) • Identify clients of this
Slide 23: Conclusion
Introduction Descriptives trade Descriptives currencies Impact of sanctions Reserves Dual-use goods Banks Conclusion Conclusion • New transmission channel of the impact of international sanctions on trade through currency invoicing in US dollars • US dollar invoicing in French exports to Russia decl
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