Aryzta Ag · SIX:ARYN
Aryzta — Investor Day (May 2025)
48 slides from Aryzta's investor day presentation, May 7, 2025
Slide 1: Capital Markets Day
Capital Markets Day 7 May 2025
Slide 2: Forward Looking Statement
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENT This document contains forward looking statements which reflect the Board of Directors' current views and estimates. The forward-looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those co
Slide 3: Agenda
Agenda Urs Jordi – Chairman • Introduction and progress to date Michael Schai – Group CEO • Market dynamics and strategic targets Martin Huber – Group CFO • Financials 2025f – 2028f
Slide 4: Introduction and progress to date
Chairman Urs Jordi Introduction and progress to date
Slide 5: Our journey to a successful value-creating company: Before vs After
INTRODUCTION AND PROGRESS TO DATE OUR JOURNEY TO A SUCCESSFUL VALUE-CREATING COMPANY Before vs After Uncontrolled M&A Focus on the Core Simplified strategy & Inefficient organisation organisation Lack of industry knowhow Knowledgeable Board & ExCo Return of organic growth Lack of innovation strategy
Slide 6: Clear focus
INTRODUCTION AND PROGRESS TO DATE CLEAR FOCUS Strategy: • Premiumisation through Innovation in the Core Categories Bread Rolls/Buns, Loaves & Laminated Products A well-defined business model: • 100% B2B • Focus on outgrowing Bake-off segment • Multi-local model • Stable experienced management team G
Slide 7: Turnaround delivered one year early – positioned for growth
INTRODUCTION AND PROGRESS TO DATE TURNAROUND DELIVERED ONE YEAR EARLY – POSITIONED FOR GROWTH KPI 2022-25 Targets 2022-24 Achievements Revenue growth @ const. pricing1.) 4.5-5.5% Avg. 4.2% ✓ Revenue >€2bn From €1.9bn to €2.2bn✓ EBITDA Margin ≥14.5% From 12.0% to 14.6% ✓ CAPEX as % of revenue 3.5-4.0
Slide 8: Innovating in an attractive growth market
INTRODUCTION AND PROGRESS TO DATE INNOVATING IN AN ATTRACTIVE GROWTH MARKET Focus on Innovation and Premiumisation • Premium products 40% of revenue in 2024 • Diversifies portfolio away from commodities Investment in new technologies and capabilities • Next generation lamination technology in Malays
Slide 9: Artificial intelligence opens new efficiencies
INTRODUCTION AND PROGRESS TO DATE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE OPENS NEW EFFICIENCIES TARGETS • New Board Technology Committee evaluating AI Enhanced Data-backed operational decision- • Testing new imaging technology efficiency making • Enhances real time measurement of all KPIs • Enables immediate adjus
Slide 10: Improving financial strength & shareholder returns
INTRODUCTION AND PROGRESS TO DATE IMPROVING FINANCIAL STRENGTH & SHAREHOLDER RETURNS • Continue to maintain profitable revenue growth • Consistent cash generation • Accessing investment grade debt with appropriate leverage • Repurchase the remaining hybrid bond • Achieve appropriate core equity rati
Slide 11: Our gold standard for bake-off delivering affordable indulgence
INTRODUCTION AND PROGRESS TO DATE OUR GOLD STANDARD FOR BAKE-OFF DELIVERING AFFORDABLE INDULGENCE 11
Slide 12: Market dynamics and strategic targets
CEO Michael Schai Market dynamics and strategic targets
Slide 13: Total baked goods market – a large, attractive & growing global market
MARKET DYNAMICS AND STRATEGIC TARGETS TOTAL BAKED GOODS MARKET – A LARGE, ATTRACTIVE & GROWING GLOBAL MARKET In EUR billion, 2024 Baked Goods * 562 Baked goods: Savoury Snacks • A large global market 276 Confectionery 259 • Predominantly private label Cheese 196 • Different maturity & growth Ice Cre
Slide 14: Bake-off is expected to continue increasing share
MARKET DYNAMICS AND STRATEGIC TARGETS BAKE-OFF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING SHARE Total bakery market shares by segment Bake-off: (ARYZTA’s core 28% 30% • Bake-off continues focus) to be the fastest Industrially manufactured growing segment of Packaged ‘long-life’ 29% +0.3% 29% bakery products
Slide 15: Trends to further accelerate relative bake-off growth
MARKET DYNAMICS AND STRATEGIC TARGETS TRENDS TO FURTHER ACCELERATE RELATIVE BAKE-OFF GROWTH Consumer trends: Customer needs: Industry trends: • Freshly baked, all day • Freshly baked – footfall driver • Cold consolidation benefitting • Superior freshness & quality • Cost & lack of bakery staff bake-
Slide 16: Business model – we offer the gold standard for bake-off
MARKET DYNAMICS AND STRATEGIC TARGETS BUSINESS MODEL – WE OFFER THE GOLD STANDARD FOR BAKE-OFF 16
Slide 17: Strategic levers of growth
MARKET DYNAMICS AND STRATEGIC TARGETS STRATEGIC LEVERS OF GROWTH • Existing customer relationships / partnerships • Developing new customer relationships / partnerships • Investing in new product technologies – Laminated and Artisanal lines • Market share gains from industry consolidation and change
Slide 18: Strategic levers of growth: Malaysia
MARKET DYNAMICS AND STRATEGIC TARGETS STRATEGIC LEVERS OF GROWTH Malaysia: New range of pastries with local flavours: - hibiscus, red bean, pandan, yuzu 18
Slide 19: Strategic levers of growth: Switzerland
MARKET DYNAMICS AND STRATEGIC TARGETS STRATEGIC LEVERS OF GROWTH Switzerland: 9 Success Factors of a Perfect Croissant * Butter taste Flakiness Baked golden Shape Sweetness Size Ovenfresh – croissant still warm Crispiness Butter flavor 19
Slide 20: Strategic levers of growth: Germany
MARKET DYNAMICS AND STRATEGIC TARGETS STRATEGIC LEVERS OF GROWTH Germany: 20
Slide 21: Strategic levers of growth: Ireland
MARKET DYNAMICS AND STRATEGIC TARGETS STRATEGIC LEVERS OF GROWTH Ireland: 21
Slide 22: Strategic levers of growth: QSR
MARKET DYNAMICS AND STRATEGIC TARGETS STRATEGIC LEVERS OF GROWTH QSR: 22
Slide 23: Innovation supporting organic growth
MARKET DYNAMICS AND STRATEGIC TARGETS INNOVATION SUPPORTING ORGANIC GROWTH • c. €100m growth CAPEX 2022-24 Innovation as % of revenue 18% ➢ c.40% of total CAPEX envelope • Innovation is margin accretive – added 30bps/yr to margin 2022-24 8% • State-of-the-art innovation center in Germany: • Availabl
Slide 24: Manufacturing and commercial footprint
MARKET DYNAMICS AND STRATEGIC TARGETS MANUFACTURING AND COMMERCIAL FOOTPRINT New production facility in Perth 11% 18% Rest of World 29% 19% 49% 43% Savoury & Other Quick Service Bread Rolls & Other Foodservice Restaurants Other Artisan Rolls Geography Channel Customer Capability Revenue Revenue Reve
Slide 25: ARYZTA relevant across all channels in bake-off
MARKET DYNAMICS AND STRATEGIC TARGETS ARYZTA RELEVANT ACROSS ALL CHANNELS IN BAKE-OFF ARYZTA ARYZTA ARYZTA Food Solutions Bakery QSR Channel • Foodservice • Large Retail • QSR focus • Convenience • Wholesale • Grocery independent • Bakeries independent Customer/ • Large number of products and • Few
Slide 26: ARYZTA achieves 10% market share
MARKET DYNAMICS AND STRATEGIC TARGETS ARYZTA ACHIEVES 10% MARKET SHARE Market by product category Market by channel €21.3bn €21.3bn Source: Gira/ARYZTA Intelligence (FY24), market size shown only for markets with ARYZTA presence, ex factory prices 26
Slide 27: Excellent growth opportunities across all categories
MARKET DYNAMICS AND STRATEGIC TARGETS EXCELLENT GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES ACROSS ALL CATEGORIES Market growth by category 2024–2027f (CAGR) Consumer growth trends: • New taste & look 3.1 • Artisanal appeal • Health-conscious indulgence 2.8 • Convenience & ‘on-the-go’ 1.9 • Ethnic & fusion flavours 0 1 2
Slide 28: Excellent growth opportunities across all channels
MARKET DYNAMICS AND STRATEGIC TARGETS EXCELLENT GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES ACROSS ALL CHANNELS Market growth by channel 2024–2027f (CAGR %) Channel growth drivers: • QSR: value-oriented pricing strategies, digitalisation 4.1 • Retail: expanded bake-off 2.3 offerings, convenience • Food Service: bake-off 2
Slide 29: Active industry consolidation
MARKET DYNAMICS AND STRATEGIC TARGETS ACTIVE INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION • c.20 consolidation transactions in our sector since 2020 • c.50% Europe and c.50% US • Average multiple for European transactions was c.10.5x EV/EBITDA • Average multiple for US transactions was c.10.7x EV/EBITDA • EV range was €2
Slide 30: Current competitor landscape
MARKET DYNAMICS AND STRATEGIC TARGETS CURRENT COMPETITOR LANDSCAPE Full Assortment • #1 ARYZTA revenue >€2bn Grupo La Lorraine Bimbo • #2 Europastry revenue >€1.5bn Europastry • The next four include Lantmännen, High bake off share Harry Brot Low bake off share Délifrance Vandemoortele Harry Brot, V
Slide 31: New mid-term targets FY 2025f - FY 2028f
MARKET DYNAMICS AND STRATEGIC TARGETS NEW MID-TERM TARGETS FY 2025F - FY 2028F Revenue growth Above market EBITDA margin EBIT margin Cash generation >15% >9% ROIC CAPEX as % of revenue 3.5–4.5% EPS Total net debt leverage ≥1.5-2x 31 Tariff uncertainty adds potential risk to the economic environment
Slide 32: ARYZTA's ESG pillars
MARKET DYNAMICS AND STRATEGIC TARGETS ARYZTA’S ESG PILLARS • 3 Pillar Strategy • SBTi targets in 2025 • 86% of 2023 carbon footprint is Scope 3: - 64% from purchased goods/raw materials • Improved significantly our independent ESG ratings in 2024 • Good Governance with Board oversight & ExCo respons
Slide 33: Sustainability progress
MARKET DYNAMICS AND STRATEGIC TARGETS SUSTAINABILITY PROGRESS Environmental Progress on Efficiency ARYZTA’s ambitions under three pillars Responsible Sourcing & Innovation Communities People and 33 Note: For the footnotes, please refer to page 101 of the 2024 Annual Report
Slide 34: Key take aways
MARKET DYNAMICS AND STRATEGIC TARGETS KEY TAKE AWAYS ✓ The Global Bakery market is a very large and attractive market ✓ Bake-Off continues to be the fastest growing segment, driven by strong underlying consumer and customer demand ✓ Active industry consolidation is on-going, ARYZTA’s primary focus i
Slide 35: Financials 2025f – 2028f
CFO Martin Huber Financials 2025f – 2028f
Slide 36: Growth drivers
FINANCIALS 2025F – 2028F GROWTH DRIVERS • Premiumisation • Capitalising & innovation on bake-off market growth • Leveraging consumer trends Artisanal, • Leveraging strategic Health & Ethical customer partnerships • Geographic expansion 36 1.) Relates to the 12-month period ended December 2.) Corresp
Slide 37: Premiumisation & disciplined cost management improving profitability
FINANCIALS 2025F – 2028F PREMIUMISATION & DISCIPLINED COST MANAGEMENT IMPROVING PROFITABILITY EBITDA/EBIT % of revenue 14.6% >15% 8.7% >9% EBITDA EBIT 2024 2025f 2028f 37
Slide 38: Building blocks of margin expansion
FINANCIALS 2025F – 2028F BUILDING BLOCKS OF MARGIN EXPANSION Operations Procurement Structural Costs €5-10m €20-30m €15-20m Increased digital maturity supported by AI 38 Note: Gross Costs optimisation in €m
Slide 39: Margin expansion in operations
FINANCIALS 2025F – 2028F MARGIN EXPANSION IN OPERATIONS • Continuous improvement programs Key Achievements 2022-2024: based on maturity assessment • Continuous improvement program: → Conversion costs as % of revenue reduced to • Technology clusters – optimise and standardise Index 93 key production
Slide 40: Margin expansion in procurement
FINANCIALS 2025F – 2028F MARGIN EXPANSION IN PROCUREMENT • Full roll-out of above market procurement Key Achievements 2022-2024: organisation → Procurement & SIMPLEX costs optimisation >€36m • One global procurement system with unified data → Increased procurement coverage from 60% to model >75% → D
Slide 41: Margin expansion by addressing structural costs
FINANCIALS 2025F – 2028F MARGIN EXPANSION BY ADDRESSING STRUCTURAL COSTS • Scaling of Business Service Center (BSC) beyond Key Achievements 2022-2024: Finance → Transactional F&C activities transferred to BSC for 60% of Group revenue • Leveraging Group competence centers → Roll out of first phase of
Slide 42: Digital maturity
FINANCIALS 2025F – 2028F DIGITAL MATURITY • Accelerating Customer Experience and eCommerce Key Achievements 2022-2024: → S/4 Go-Live in Switzerland – 60% of revenue • ERP and Application standardisation supported by SAP → One Analytical Data Lake, one IT Service Management platform • Process and ser
Slide 43: Free cash flow generation
FINANCIALS 2025F – 2028F FREE CASH FLOW GENERATION Free Cash flow, conversion rate and Trade W/C as % of revenue Cash generation supported by… 140 137.8 1004.0 132.4 90 3.5 3.6% • Growth driven EBITDA 120 3.2% progression 80 3.0 100 70 • Continued W/C discipline 60 2.5 80 • Optimised financing costs
Slide 44: Addressing the capital structure
FINANCIALS 2025F – 2028F ADDRESSING THE CAPITAL STRUCTURE Total Net Debt in €m & Leverage Ratio 2.8x • Consistent cash generation • Repayment of hybrid bond linked to 894 appropriate core-equity ratio 1.5-2.0x • Diversification of debt stack optimising financing costs • B/S flexibility to support gr
Slide 45: ROIC
FINANCIALS 2025F – 2028F ROIC ROIC % 14.0-15.0% 13.4% • Margin progression • Disciplined CAPEX management • Optimising capacity utilisation: WACC: 8%1.) • Intercompany sourcing & consistent make or buy • Above market coordination of manufacturing capacity 2024 2028f 45 1.) Relates to the FY 2024 WAC
Slide 46: Capital allocation focused on growth, balance sheet & shareholder return
FINANCIALS 2025F – 2028F CAPITAL ALLOCATION FOCUSED ON GROWTH, BALANCE SHEET & SHAREHOLDER RETURN / Growth CAPEX Balance Sheet Dividend Share buyback Bolt-On Acquisitions • Growth, • Investment Grade • The Board will • The Board will • Consideration of efficiency & ESG → ≥1.5-2.0x Net define its def
Slide 47: In summary
FINANCIALS 2025F – 2028F IN SUMMARY • Organic Growth driven business model in an attractive and growing market • Continuous improvement of operating profit margin • Consistent delivery of cash generation and capital efficiency • Evolving toward investment grade and further optimised financing costs
Slide 48: Thank you — Q&A
Thank you —- Q&A ARWZTA SERVING INSPIRATION