BP plc · LSE:BP.
BP — Investor Presentation (September 2020)
28 slides from BP's investor presentation, September 2020
Slide 1: Spencer Dale, Group chief economist
Spencer Dale Group chief economist
Slide 2: Three scenarios to explore the energy transition
Three scenarios to explore the energy transition CO2 emissions from energy use Gt of CO2 40 35 30 25 20 15 Rapid Well Net Zero below 2°C 10 Business-as-usual 5 IPCC 2°C Median 1.5°C IPCC 1.5°C Median 0 -5 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Ranges show 10th and 90th percentiles of IPCC scenarios
Slide 3: Key questions
Key questions 1. What DO we know? 2. How has Covid-19 affected the outlook? 3. How might oil demand be affected by the mobility revolution? 4. What role could natural gas play in the energy transition? 5. Just how quickly will renewables grow over time? 6. How will electricity and power markets shap
Slide 4: Changing structure of global energy demand
Changing structure of global energy demand Fossil fuels Renewables* Electricity Shares of primary energy Shares of primary energy Share of total final consumption 100% 100% 60% 90% 90% 50% 80% 80% 70% 70% 40% 60% 60% 50% 50% 30% 40% Rapid 40% 20% 30% 30% Net zero 20% 20% 10% 10% Business- 10% as-usu
Slide 5: Changing structure of global energy system
Changing structure of global energy system Shares of primary energy in Rapid 100% Oil Coal 80% Natural gas 60% Other non- fossil fuels* Renewables 40% 20% 0% 1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 *Nuclear and hydroelectricity © BP p.l.c. 2020 Energy Outlook | bp week: September 2020
Slide 6: Key questions
Key questions 1. What DO we know? 2. How has Covid-19 affected the outlook? 3. How might oil demand be affected by the mobility revolution? 4. What role could natural gas play in the energy transition? 5. Just how quickly will renewables grow over time? 6. How will electricity and power markets shap
Slide 7: Impact of Covid-19 in Rapid
Impact of Covid-19 in Rapid Alt case*: Greater impact from Covid-19 % change as a result of Covid-19 0% GDP -2% Primary energy -4% Oil demand -6% -8% -10% -12% 2025 2050 2025 2050 *Alternative case showing the impact if Covid-19 leads to higher economic losses © BP p.l.c. 2020 Energy Outlook | bp we
Slide 8: Key questions
Key questions 1. What DO we know? 2. How has Covid-19 affected the outlook? 3. How might oil demand be affected by the mobility revolution? 4. What role could natural gas play in the energy transition? 5. Just how quickly will renewables grow over time? 6. How will electricity and power markets shap
Slide 9: Outlook for oil demand
Outlook for oil demand Oil consumption Change in oil demand, 2018-2050 Mb/d Mb/d 120 10 0 100 Non- -10 transport 80 -20 Other transport³ -30 Other 60 road² -40 Passenger 40 Rapid -50 cars¹ Net Zero -60 20 Business- -70 as-usual 0 -80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Rapid Net Zero Business- 1) includes
Slide 10: Mobility revolution: electrification, shared-mobility and autonomy
Mobility revolution: electrification, shared-mobility and autonomy Share of car and truck VKM1 electrified2 Robotaxi share of passenger car VKM1 powered by electricity 100% 60% Rapid Net Zero 50% Business-as-usual 75% 40% 50% 30% 20% 25% 10% 0% 0% 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2020 2025 2030 20
Slide 11: Key questions
Key questions 1. What DO we know? 2. How has Covid-19 affected the outlook? 3. How might oil demand be affected by the mobility revolution? 4. What role could natural gas play in the energy transition? 5. Just how quickly will renewables grow over time? 6. How will electricity and power markets shap
Slide 12: Outlook for natural gas
Outlook for natural gas Natural gas consumption Bcm 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 Rapid 1000 Net Zero Business-as-usual 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 © BP p.l.c. 2020 Energy Outlook | bp week: September 2020
Slide 13: Supporting role of natural gas
Supporting role of natural gas Rapid vs. Business-as-usual: India and Other Asia Differences in shares of primary energy 40% Non-fossil* Oil Coal Natural gas 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 *Renewables, nuclear and hydroelectricity © BP p.l.c. 2020 Energy Outlook | b
Slide 14: Natural gas as a source of near-zero carbon energy
Natural gas as a source of near-zero carbon energy Share of natural gas abated1 and unabated Natural gas with CCUS as a share of primary energy Business- Rapid Net Zero as-usual 10% Net Zero 100% Unabated Blue Rapid hydrogen² 80% Abated¹ 8% Direct energy 60% 6% use 40% 4% 20% 2% Business- as-usual 0
Slide 15: Key questions
Key questions 1. What DO we know? 2. How has Covid-19 affected the outlook? 3. How might oil demand be affected by the mobility revolution? 4. What role could natural gas play in the energy transition? 5. Just how quickly will renewables grow over time? 6. How will electricity and power markets shap
Slide 16: Renewable energy in power
Renewable energy in power Renewable energy used in power sector* Cost of wind and solar energy EJ 100% = 2018 price 400 100% Geothermal Net Zero & biomass 350 Solar 80% 300 Rapid Wind 250 Wind 60% 200 Business- as-usual 150 40% Solar 100 Rapid 20% Net Zero 50 Business-as-usual 0 0% 2018 2050 2018 20
Slide 17: Wind and solar capacity
Wind and solar capacity Average annual increase in wind and solar capacity Average annual investment in wind and solar GW Five-year rolling average, 2018 US$ Billion 1000 1200 Rapid 1000 800 Net Zero Business- 800 600 as-usual 600 400 400 200 200 0 0 2000 - 2010 - 2018 - 2030 - 2040 - 2015 2018 2025
Slide 18: Key questions
Key questions 1. What DO we know? 2. How has Covid-19 affected the outlook? 3. How might oil demand be affected by the mobility revolution? 4. What role could natural gas play in the energy transition? 5. Just how quickly will renewables grow over time? 6. How will electricity and power markets shap
Slide 19: Electricity demand
Electricity demand Share of electricity in total final consumption Change in electricity demand by sector, 2018-2050 TWh 60% 25000 Rapid 50% 20000 Net Zero Buil 40% ding Business- 15000 s as-usual 30% 10000 20% 5000 10% 0% 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Rapid Net Zero Business- as-usual © BP p.l.c.
Slide 20: Global power generation
Global power generation Share of global power generation by energy source Rapid Net Zero Business-as-usual 70% Wind & 60% solar Coal 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 © BP p.l.c. 2020 Energy Outlook | bp week: September 2
Slide 21: Technologies to help balance the power sector
Technologies to help balance the power sector © BP p.l.c. 2020 Energy Outlook | bp week: September 2020
Slide 22: Key questions
Key questions 1. What DO we know? 2. How has Covid-19 affected the outlook? 3. How might oil demand be affected by the mobility revolution? 4. What role could natural gas play in the energy transition? 5. Just how quickly will renewables grow over time? 6. How will electricity and power markets shap
Slide 23: Consumption and production of hydrogen
Consumption and production of hydrogen Hydrogen use by sector Hydrogen production by type EJ EJ 70 70 Rapid Net Zero Rapid Net Zero Grey Power 60 60 Hydrogen¹ Transport Blue 50 Buildings 50 Hydrogen² Industry Green 40 40 Hydrogen³ 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 2035 2050 2035 2050 2035 2050 2035 2050 1) prod
Slide 24: Wind and solar capacity
Wind and solar capacity Annual average increase in wind and solar capacity GW 1400 Rapid 1200 Business-as-usual 1000 Net Zero 800 Net Zero with 100% 600 green hydrogen 400 200 0 2000 - 2005 - 2010 - 2015 - 2018 - 2025 - 2030 - 2035 - 2040 - 2045 - 2005 2010 2015 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 ©
Slide 25: Bioenergy in Rapid and Net Zero
Bioenergy in Rapid and Net Zero Shares of primary energy 10% Rapid Net Zero Biomethane 8% Biomass Biofuels Hydrogen Power 6% Buildings Industry Transport 4% 2% 0% By sector By type By sector By type © BP p.l.c. 2020 Energy Outlook | bp week: September 2020
Slide 26: Key questions
Key questions 1. What DO we know? 2. How has Covid-19 affected the outlook? 3. How might oil demand be affected by the mobility revolution? 4. What role could natural gas play in the energy transition? 5. Just how quickly will renewables grow over time? 6. How will electricity and power markets shap
Slide 27: Delayed and Disorderly scenario
Delayed and Disorderly scenario Carbon emissions Primary energy consumption Gt of CO2 EJ 40 800 700 30 600 500 20 400 300 10 Rapid 200 Rapid Business-as-usual Delayed and Disorderly (before rationing) 100 Delayed and Disorderly Delayed and Disorderly 0 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Slide 28: Spencer Dale, Group chief economist
Spencer Dale Group chief economist