Marathon Petroleum Corporation · NYSE:MPC
Marathon Petroleum — Simmons Annual Energy Conference 2015
68 slides from Marathon Petroleum's conference presentation, Mar 5, 2015
Slide 1: Simmons Annual Energy Conference
Simmons Annual Energy Conference March 5, 2015
Slide 2: Forward-Looking Statements
Forward‐Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws regarding both MPC and MPLX. These forward-looking statements relate to, among other things, expectations, estimates and projections concerning the business and operations o
Slide 3: 2014 Highlights
2014 Highlights Generated $2.5 B of earnings Speedway achieved record earnings Speedway is nation’s second largest convenience store chain with Hess acquisition Executed first step in accelerated growth plan for MPLX Returned $2.7 B of capital to shareholders Announced $2.5 B capital pla
Slide 4: Current Trends
Current Trends Positive domestic outlook Sustainable U.S. refining advantages U.S. product exports growth MPC performs well in volatile market conditions Significant infrastructure investments in U.S. 4
Slide 5: U.S. Refined Product Demand
U.S. Refined Product Demand Compounded Annual 10 Growth Rates 9 Actual Forecast 2020 vs. 2014 Distillate demand -0.3% 8 Gasoline growth outpaces other -0.4% 7 Gasoline ex ethanol products 6 Gasoline will be MMBD 5 Annual average forecasted growth constrained by CAFE 4 Distillate +1.9% standards
Slide 6: Crude Oil Inventory Impacting Differentials
Crude Oil Inventory Impacting Differentials PADD 3 Crude Stocks Cushing Crude Stocks 220 57 210 47 200 190 MMB MMB 37 180 170 27 160 150 17 Source: EIA 6
Slide 7: Sustaining U.S. Refining Advantage
Sustaining U.S. Refining Advantage International Fuel Cost Comparison 20 15 $/MMBtu 10 5 0 Henry Hub (NYMEX prompt price) European Natural Gas (Avg Import Border Price)* Japanese Liquefied Natural Gas (Import Price)* USGC #6 Fuel Oil-1% Sulfur (NYH-Avg spot price)** *World Bank Assessment **Petroleu
Slide 8: U.S. Gross Refined Product Exports Increasing
U.S. Gross Refined Product Exports Increasing 4.0 3.5 Gasolines 3.0 Kero-Jet Diesels 2.5 Product Exports MMBD 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration *Through November 2014 8
Slide 9: MPC's Value of Integration
MPC’s Value of Integration Crude RIN $ 2,800 Distortion Price Decline 2,600 2,400 2,200 Flexible refining 2,000 system $MM 1,800 Large retail 1,600 presence 1,400 Extensive logistics 1,200 1,000 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 Gross Margin Indicator Reported Gross M
Slide 10: Our Priorities for Our Investors
Our Priorities for Our Investors Maintain top-tier safety and Share Price $110 environmental performance $100 Sustain our focus on $90 shareholder returns $80 $70 Balance capital returns with $60 value-enhancing Spin- investments $50 off Grow higher valued and $40 stable cash-flow $30 businesses $20
Slide 11: MPC Delivering Peer Leading Return of Capital
MPC Delivering Peer Leading Return of Capital Twelve months ended December 31, 2014 12.0% 10.7% 10.0% 8.5% 8.5% 8.0% 1.5% 7.6% 6.7% 6.0% 8.6% 5.2% 6.5% 4.3% 4.4% 4.0% 2.0% 2.1% 2.7% 2.4% 2.0% 2.3% 0.0% MPC HFC PSX TSO VLO Dividend Yield Special Dividend Yield 2014 Share Repurchase/Share Yield *Total
Slide 12: 2015 Capital Investment Plan – $2.5 B
2015 Capital Investment Plan – $2.5 B Corporate & Other Speedway 18% 5% Refining Refining & Marketing – $1,276 MM Sustaining Capital – Includes $234 MM for 27% midstream investments Speedway – $452 MM 35% Pipeline Transportation – $659 MM Midstream* 15% Corporate & Other – $140 MM Refining M
Slide 13: Substantial Acceleration of MPLX Growth
Substantial Acceleration of MPLX Growth Adjusted EBITDA Attributable to MPLX 500 450 Evolve MPLX into large-cap, diversified 400 logistics MLP >2x 4Q 2014 ~$450 MM of run-rate Adjusted EBITDA by 300 EBITDA end of 2015 $MM Annualized 200 170 Annual LP distribution growth rate to average 111 100
Slide 14: Substantial Acceleration of MPLX Growth
Substantial Acceleration of MPLX Growth Total Distributions to MPC Rapidly changing midstream 600 $557 business environment creates 500 multiple opportunities where size 400 $389 GP matters Distributions* Hess retail acquisition has $MM 300 $267 $187 expanded MPC’s opportunity set 200 $124 LP Di
Slide 15: Investing in Significant Midstream Growth Projects
Investing in Significant Midstream Growth Projects Youngstown Sandpiper Canton Pa. Canadian ‒ MPC Investment: $1.0 B - $1.2 B Midland ‒ MPC Equity: 27% - 30% Wellsville ‒ 2017 completion Bakken M3, Leesville Steubenville M3, Scio Ohio MarkWest, Cadiz Southern Access Extension (SAX) Superior, WI – MP
Slide 16: Conversion Plans for Former Hess Stores
Conversion Plans for Former Hess Stores 2014-2017 Conversion to Speedway: $181 MM ~500 Stores Remodel Capital: $240 MM by Dec. 2015 ~495 Stores by Dec. 2016 ~250 Stores by March 2015 16
Slide 17: Growing Speedway
Growing Speedway Segment EBITDA* 800 696 700 600 143 500 $MM 400 300 553 487 200 404 381 424 100 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Legacy Speedway Hess *Non-GAAP disclosure, see appendix for reconciliation to Speedway segment income from operations 17
Slide 18: Increasing Light Sweet Crude and Condensate Capacity
Increasing Light Sweet Crude and Condensate Capacity Condensate splitters Condensate Processing Opportunity – Canton: 25 MBD Light Naphtha to Gasoline Blending • Completed 4Q 2014 Ultra-Sweet New Heavy Naphtha to Reforming – Catlettsburg: 35 MBD Condensate Fractionator Distillates to Hydrotreating
Slide 19: Growing Gulf Coast Export Capabilities
Growing Gulf Coast Export Capabilities Export investments totaling ~$120 MM Added new 500,000 barrel export tank Export Capacity 600 at Garyville in 2013 510 500 Galveston Bay in 2015 395 – +30 MBD ULSD 400 345 320 MBD – ~40% ROI 300 Garyville in 2015 200 150 – +20 MBD Gasoline 100 – ~30% RO
Slide 20: Capitalizing on Global Growth in Diesel Demand
Capitalizing on Global Growth in Diesel Demand Distillate Production 700 600 Garyville +35 MBD ULSD in 2014-16 MBD 500 – $232 MM investment 400 300 – ~45% ROI 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Galveston Bay +9 MBD ULSD in 2015 – $16 MM investment Distillate Production 38 % of Crude Throughput – ~
Slide 21: Galveston Bay Driving Value
Galveston Bay Driving Value Integration with Texas City refinery Revamp crude and vacuum units – Optimize for future crude availability – Improve distillate recovery Add hydrotreating capacity – Move to 100% ULSD Idle the smallest and oldest FCC Expand export capabilities Expand bottom u
Slide 22: 2015 Value Drivers
2015 Value Drivers Top-tier safety and environmental performance Accelerate growth of Midstream/MPLX Capital return to shareholders – Strong and growing dividend – Share repurchase program Speedway – Hess integration Increasing light crude processing and export capabilities Enhancing mar
Slide 23: Appendix
Appendix 23
Slide 24: Fully Integrated Downstream System
Fully Integrated Downstream System Refining and Marketing Seven-plant refining system with ~1.7 MMBPCD capacity One biodiesel facility and interest in three ethanol facilities One of the largest wholesale suppliers in our market area Marketing Area One of the largest producers of asphalt in
Slide 25: MPC Performing Consistently in the Top Tier
MPC Performing Consistently in the Top Tier Engine behind MPC’s focus on capital returns Operating Income Per Barrel of Crude Throughput** 20 MPC’s Rank 15 Competitor Range 1 2 10 $/BBL 2 5 1 3 1 2 5 2 7 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 0 -5 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20
Slide 26: A More Diversified Portfolio
Grow Higher Valued and Stable Cash Flow Businesses Historical Mid-Cycle EBITDA* Future Mid-Cycle EBITDA Midstream Pipeline Transportation Speedway Speedway A More Diversified Portfolio R&M R&M *2007-2014 average. Non-GAAP disclosure, see appendix for reconciliation to net income attributable to MPC
Slide 27: MPC's Currently Identified Eligible MLP EBITDA
MPC’s Currently Identified Eligible MLP EBITDA Sources of ~$1.6 B Retained by MPC ● ~ 5,400 miles of additional crude and products pipelines – Owns, leases or has an ownership interest in these pipelines Pipelines – 0.5% of MPLX Pipe Line Holdings LP ● Southern Access Extension, Sandpiper and Utica
Slide 28: MPLX/MPC Utica Build-Out Connectivity
MPLX/MPC Utica Build-Out Connectivity 28
Slide 29: MPLX Developing a Comprehensive Utica System
MPLX Developing a Comprehensive Utica System Cornerstone Pipeline and Additional Opportunities Non-binding open season supports 12-inch pipeline, 16-inch option Binding open season underway Capital estimates vary subject to binding open season results East and West connectivity options – Riv
Slide 30: MPLX Distributions and Sales Proceeds to MPC
MPLX Distributions and Sales Proceeds to MPC 25 19.7 20.7 20 17.5 18.5 15.8 16.6 15.1 $MM 15 9.8 10 5 0 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 LP Distributions GP Distributions, including IDRs ($MM) 2013 2014 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q GP Distributions, including IDRs 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.5 L
Slide 31: Focused Return of Capital to Shareholders
Focused Return of Capital to Shareholders LTM Ended 12/31/14 8,000 7,000 6,000 2,775 Hess Retail Acquisition 5,000 $MM 4,000 Dividends and share ~2.7x of Free Cash Flow*** repurchases* 2,655 $999 Free Cash 3,000 Flow, Excluding Investments, Excluding Hess Hess Acquisition** 2,000 Acquisition*** 3,11
Slide 32: Sustaining Capital Returns Since Spin
Sustaining Capital Returns Since Spin Cumulative Return of Capital Since July 1, 2011 10,000 $7.8 B 8,000 6,000 $MM 4,000 2,000 0 Dividends Share repurchases 32
Slide 33: Generating Significant Cash Flow Through All Cycles
Generating Significant Cash Flow Through All Cycles Pro forma EBITDA adjusted for current configuration Pro forma EBITDA 8,000 6,000 $MM 4,000 2,000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2009 thru 2014 Mid- Pipeline Transportation Speedway Cycle Depr. & Amort. less corporate expense Refining and Marketing
Slide 34: Sustaining Core Liquidity Needs
Sustaining Core Liquidity Needs Minimum cash balance of $500 MM - $1.0 B Requirements Ongoing Operating Cash Flow Requirements – Maintenance/Sustaining Capital – Interest Payments – Dividend Payments Contingent Calls on Corporate Liquidity - Probability Adjusted – Contingent and Uncommitted Lett
Slide 35: Growing Global Product Demand
Growing Global Product Demand Compounded Annual 120 Actual Forecast Growth Rates 2030 vs. 2014 100 +1.2% Other Distillate and gasoline 80 Other Fuel Oil -1.1% demand continues to Fuel Oil rise MMBD 60 Distillate +1.3% 40 Distillate Fuel oil continues to decline on 20 Gasoline Gasoline +0.8% econ
Slide 36: Rising North American Crude & NGLs Production
Rising North American Crude & NGLs Production 25 2014 Actual Forecast 20 Canada 15 MMBD 10 5 U.S. 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Sources: EIA, CAPP, MPC 36
Slide 37: Growing Crude Oil Supply
Growing Crude Oil Supply 1,800 2014 5,000 2014 150 2014 1,500 North Dakota Texas 125 Ohio 4,000 1,200 100 3,000 MBD MBD 900 75 MBD 2,000 600 50 300 1,000 25 ← Actual Forecast → ← Actual Forecast → ← Actual Forecast → 0 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Ca
Slide 38: Refining Capacity in Advantaged Regions
Refining Capacity in Advantaged Regions 100% in PADDs II and III Canadian Bakken 100% Utica 80% PADD IV PADD II 60% PADD V 40% PADD I 20% 0% PADD III MPC VLO HFC PSX TSO PADD II PADD III PADD I PADD IV PADD V Permian Basin Eagle Ford Gulf of Mexico Source: Oil & Gas Journal effective December 31, 20
Slide 39: Refinery Capacity
Refinery Capacity BPCD NCI* Garyville 522,000 11.4 Galveston Bay 451,000 13.3 Catlettsburg 242,000 10.2 Robinson 212,000 10.1 Detroit 130,000 9.8 Canton 90,000 8.0 Texas City 84,000 8.0 Total 1,731,000 11.1** The Nelson Complexity Index is a construction cost-based measurement used to describe the i
Slide 40: Balance in Refining Network
Balance in Refining Network Canton (Ohio) 90,000 Catlettsburg (Ky.) 242,000 Midwest Capacity Detroit (Mich.) 130,000 674,000 BPCD Robinson (Ill.) 212,000 Galveston Bay 451,000 (Texas) Texas City (Texas) 84,000 Garyville (La.) 522,000 Texas Capacity Louisiana Capacity 535,000 BPCD 522,000 BPCD Total
Slide 41: U.S./Canada Key Existing and Planned Pipelines
U.S./Canada Key Existing and Planned Pipelines In Service MBPD Pipeline Date 300 Line 9 Reversal 2015 300 SAX 2015 200 Diamond 2016 450 Dakota Access 2016 450 ETCO 2016 (Trunkline Conversion) 225-375 Sandpiper 2017 300 Trans Mountain Current +590 Trans Mountain Expansion 2017 830 Keystone XL 2018 1,
Slide 42: Key Strengths
Key Strengths Balanced Operations Crude Oil Refining Capacity Crude Slate 61% PADD II Sour Crude 52% 48% 39% PADD III Sweet Crude As of December 31, 2014 December 31, 2014 YTD Assured Sales of Gasoline Production (Speedway + Brand + Wholesale Contract Sales) Assured Sales ~70% ~30% Wholesale and Oth
Slide 43: Forward Curves
Forward Curves $/BBL $/BBL $/BBL Forward curves show some price recovery, but not a return to $100/BBL Forward values for the Brent-WTI differential are favorable Sources: CME, ICE, futures as of Feb. 13, 2015 43
Slide 44: Compelling Advantage for Pipeline and Marine
Compelling Advantage for Pipeline and Marine All costs shown as $/BBL Pipeline costs exclude any storage or transfer fees and line loss Sources: MPC, publicly available information 44
Slide 45: Creating Crude/Condensate Advantage
Creating Crude/Condensate Advantage Source: MPC 45
Slide 46: Speedway Value
Speedway Value Total Gross Margin Mix 2011-2014 Average Top-tier performance in the convenience store industry Light Scalable technology and Product organizational infrastructure 37% Merchandise Disciplined expense control 63% Highly successful consumer loyalty program Leverage integration
Slide 47: Acquisition of Hess Retail Transaction Overview
Acquisition of Hess Retail Transaction Overview Hess retail acquisition included: – 1,245 company operated locations – Transport fleet with capacity to transport ~1 B gal/yr. – Pipeline shipper history in various pipelines, including ~40 MBPD on Colonial Pipeline – Prime undeveloped real estate ba
Slide 48: Transformative Transaction for MPC and Speedway
Transformative Transaction for MPC and Speedway Accelerates strategy to grow higher valued and stable cash-flow businesses Provides larger integrated platform for growth in new markets Meaningfully expands scale and provides multiple levels of strategic optionality Continued commitment to ba
Slide 49: Enhances Strategic Value for Integrated System
Enhances Strategic Value for Integrated System Refined Product Placement Opportunities Incremental 200 MBPD of refined products placement capacity, increases assured gasoline Incremental supply of MPC Gulf Coast refined products to northeast and southeast markets Logistics Opportunities Increa
Slide 50: Synergies and Marketing Enhancements Will Drive Value
Synergies and Marketing Enhancements Will Drive Value 400 Earnings Opportunities 70 300 45 Operating and G&A expense $MM 40 200 35 365 100 175 synergies of $75 MM 0 2013 Pro Forma Hess Form 10 WilcoHess Operating and G&A Expense Light Product Supply and Marketing Enhancements 2017E Hess EBITDA I
Slide 51: Focus on Improving Light Product Breakeven
Focus on Improving Light Product Breakeven 13 12.39 11 Each 1.00 cent per gallon improvement Light Product Breakeven (cpg) 9 = ~$30 MM annual pretax earnings Total Expenses – 7 7.13 LPBE = Merchandise Margin Light Product Volume 5 3 Measure of operating efficiency and 2.56 merchandise contribution
Slide 52: Speedway and Hess Side-by-Side Comparison
Speedway and Hess Side-by-Side Comparison Hessa Speedwayb Company Operated Sites 1,255 1,478 Fuel Sales Speedway generates an incremental 198,500 177,400 (gallons/store/month) $17,300 of merchandise margin per Fuel Margin $0.137 $0.144 store per month ($/gallon) ~$250 MM of additional annual Mer
Slide 53: Rising MPC Finished Product Exports
Rising MPC Finished Product Exports 300 250 200 MBD 150 100 50 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 53
Slide 54: Leveraging Existing Capacity to Run Light Sweet Crude
Leveraging Existing Capacity to Run Light Sweet Crude 30 Reforming Capacity % of Crude Capacity 25 48% sweet crude oil throughput 20 Industry 2014 versus 68% sweet crude oil capacity Average 15 Reformer capacity captures full 10 5 value of light crude processing 0 MPC Midwest MPC USGC Addition
Slide 55: Renewable Fuels
Renewable Fuels Corn Ethanol Plants – 67% equity interest* in Greenville, Ohio • 110 MM gallon/year capacity – 60% equity interest in Clymers, Indiana • 110 MM gallon/year capacity – 43% equity interest in Albion, Michigan • 55 MM gallon/year capacity – The Andersons operates the plants and provid
Slide 56: Allocating Capital to Higher Valued Businesses
Allocating Capital to Higher Valued Businesses 2012 – 2015 Capital Investment Profile 3,000 2,500 2,000 $MM 1,500 1,000 500 0 2012 2013 2014 2015E Refining & Marketing, excluding Midstream Midstream Pipeline Transportation Speedway Other Excludes Galveston Bay and Hess retail acquisitions 56
Slide 57: 2015 Significant Capital Projects
2015 Significant Capital Projects 2015 Capital Budget - $2.5B Refining & Marketing – margin-enhancing projects Corporate – Increase light crude capacity at Robinson Speedway & Other – Distillate growth at Garyville, Galveston Bay and Robinson 18% 5% Refining – Product export growth at Garyville an
Slide 58: Capital Expenditures & Investments
Capital Expenditures & Investments ($MM) 2015 MPC Plan Refining & Marketing (R&M) 1,042 Midstream included in R&M 234 Speedway 452 Pipeline Transportation* 659 Corporate and Other 140 Total Capital Expenditures & Investments 2,527 *Includes MPLX Note: Excludes capitalized interest ($MM) 2015 MPLX Pl
Slide 59: Annual Price and Margin Sensitivities
Annual Price and Margin Sensitivities $MM (After Tax) LLS 6-3-2-1 Crack Spread* Sensitivity ~$450 (per $1.00/barrel change) Sweet/Sour Differential** Sensitivity ~$200 (per $1.00/barrel change) LLS-WTI Spread*** Sensitivity ~$100 (per $1.00/barrel change) Natural Gas Price Sensitivity ~$140 (per $1.
Slide 60: MPLX's Priorities for Investors
MPLX’s Priorities for Investors Maintain Safe and Reliable $90 Operations $80 Sustain Long‐term Unit Price Distribution Growth; Mid 20% for $70 the Next Five Years $60 Focus on Fee‐Based Businesses $50 $40 IPO Pursue Organic Growth $30 Opportunities $20 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-
Slide 61: MPLX and MPC are Aligned
MPLX and MPC are Aligned MPLX Organizational Structure Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Affiliates MPC views MPLX as integral to its (NYSE: MPC) operations and is aligned with its 100.0% ownership 69.5% Public success and incentivized to grow MPLX LP interest MPLX assets consist of a 99.5% GP
Slide 62: MPLX Deficiency Payment Effect Example
MPLX Deficiency Payment Effect Example For illustrative purposes only Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter ($MM) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Quarterly deficiency payment 2 5 3 5 ‐ ‐ ‐ Use or expiration of credit (on or before) ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 2 5 3 Cumulative deferred revenue 2 7 10 15 13 8 5 Distribut
Slide 63: Incentive Distribution Rights
Incentive Distribution Rights 4Q 2014 distribution of $0.3825/unit is in Third Target Distribution tier 63
Slide 64: 1Q 2015 Outlook
1Q 2015 Outlook Other Total Corporate Percent of Turnaround Depreciation Other Crude Charge/ Total Direct and Other WTI-priced and Major and Manufacturing Throughput* Feedstocks Throughput* Operating Unallocated Crude Maintenance Amortization Cost** Throughput* Costs Items*** in MBD Refinery Direct
Slide 65: MPLX Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation from Net Income
MPLX Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation from Net Income 4Q 2014 Dec. 2015 ($MM) 2013 Annualized Annualized Net income 146 146 305 Less: Net income attributable to MPC‐ 68 29 1 retainretained interest Net income attributable to MPLX LP 78 117 304 Plus: Net income attributable to MPC‐ retained interest 68
Slide 66: EBITDA Reconciliation to Net Income Attributable to MPC
EBITDA Reconciliation to Net Income Attributable to MPC 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ($MM) 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Net income attributable to MPC 2,262 1,215 449 623 2,389 3,389 725 593 168 626 199 855 672 798 Less: Net interest and other financial income (costs) 165 30 31 12 (26) (109) (
Slide 67: Reconciliation Free Cash Flow to Net Cash Provided by Operations
Reconciliation Free Cash Flow to Net Cash Provided by Operations ($MM) 2014 (For the Quarter) 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Net cash provided by operating 766 878 1,078 388 activities Additions to property, plant and (267) (302) (383) (528) equipment Acquisitions* - (42) (4) - Investments (123) (41) (177) (72) Contin
Slide 68: EBITDA Reconciliation to Net Income for Hess
EBITDA Reconciliation to Net Income for Hess ($MM) 2013* 2017E Net Income 47 138 Less: Net interest and other financial income (costs) (12) - Add: Provision for income taxes 22 78 Add: Depreciation and amortization 94 149 EBITDA 175 365 *Based on Hess Sept. 30, 2013 Form 10 data annualized 68
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