Slide 1: Global Market Forecast 2022
Global Market Forecast 2022 Stan Shparberg and Bob Lange Toulouse - 08 July 2022
Slide 2: People want and need to travel
People want and need to travel Global Market Forecast 2022 Linking families and friends Enabling tourism Ensuring connectivity Supporting economies Reconnecting cultures and societies
Slide 3: Air traffic is recovering continuously with a few, notable exceptions
Air traffic is recovering continuously with a few, notable exceptions Source: OAG, FR24, SABRE, IATA, Airbus GMF Domestic leg traffic RPK compared to 2019 International leg traffic RPK compared to 2019 3 Global Market Forecast 2022
Slide 4: Air traffic recovery to 2019 levels between 2023 and 2025
Air traffic recovery to 2019 levels between 2023 and 2025 Source: Sabre, OAG, FR24, IATA, Airbus GMF World air traffic (RPK versus equivalent month in 2019) Recovery trend confirmed despite recent events (Omicron wave, war) Lower boundary of recovery ‘corridor’ includes risk of further waves 4 Globa
Slide 5: Airlines require the latest, most efficient and lowest-emission aircraft
Airlines require the latest, most efficient and lowest-emission aircraft Global Market Forecast 2022 % of in-service fleet by aircraft generation Fleet modernisation: A strategic hedge against high energy costs 20% 5% 13% 80% of fleet not yet latest generation Western built passenger aircraft above
Slide 6: Airbus product line delivers 20-40% fuel burn reduction
Airbus product line delivers 20 - 40% fuel burn reduction End of June 2022 Backlog: 423 aircraft Backlog: 5,829 aircraft Backlog: 31 aircraft Backlog: 544 aircraft Backlog: 196 aircraft Single-Aisle Freighter Widebody
Slide 7: ~39,500 new passenger & freighter aircraft deliveries over 2022-2041
~39,500 new passenger & freighter aircraft deliveries over 2022-2041 Source: IHS Markit, Airbus GMF Note: Passenger aircraft above 100 seats & freighters with a payload above 10t Gross Domestic Product 2.6% 2019-2041 CAGR Passenger Traffic 3.6% 2019-2041 CAGR Freight Traffic 3.2% 2019-2041 CAGR Begi
Slide 8: Fundamental drivers unchanged, but some becoming more relevant
Fundamental drivers unchanged, but some becoming more relevant 8 Global Market Forecast 2022
Slide 9: Short-term pressures apparent but likely to normalise within a few years
Short-term pressures apparent but likely to normalise within a few years Source: IHS Markit, Airbus GMF * Consumer Price Index 9 Global Market Forecast 2022
Slide 10: GMF 2022 is an exploratory scenario
GMF 2022 is an exploratory scenario GMF 2022 STEPS - Stated Policies Scenario From the APS - Announced Pledges Scenario current state of knowledge EXPLORATORY (forecast) Now 2050 NORMATIVE (backcast) From the defined target Sustainable Development Scenario - SDS Net Zero Emission - NZE 10 Global Mar
Slide 11: Share of energy cost in airline operating costs is growing
Share of energy cost in airline operating costs is growing Source: IATA, Airbus GMF Unit cost ($ cents per RPK - 2019) Share fuel cost (%) 11 Global Market Forecast 2022
Slide 12: SAF & CO2 prices impact energy cost assumptions in GMF 2022
SAF & CO2 prices impact energy cost assumptions in GMF 2022 Source: IHS, IEA/WEO 2021, Airbus GMF Blended Jet Fuel price incl. CO2 prices ($ per barrel - 2019) te d average World weigh Regional or national spread 100% fossil fuel for all regions at very comparable prices 12 Global Market Forecast 20
Slide 13: GDP projection has been reviewed upward since GMF 2021
GDP projection has been reviewed upward since GMF 2021 Despite war in Ukraine generating downward pressure Source: IHS Markit, Airbus GMF World GDP ($ trillion - 2015) CAGR 2019 - 2041: 2.6% 2041 World GDP ($ trillion - 2015) + 1.6% - 5.5% 13 Global Market Forecast 2022
Slide 14: World international trade is expected to double in the next 20 years
World international trade is expected to double in the next 20 years Source: IHS Markit, Airbus GMF World international trade ($ trillion - 2015) Strong demand for air cargo Forecast supported by world trade growth World international World trade GDP 14 Global Market Forecast 2022
Slide 15: Express air cargo growth will outpace General air cargo
Express air cargo growth will outpace General air cargo Source: IHS Markit, Seabury, IATA, Airbus GMF World air cargo traffic +3.2% CAGR 2019-2041 2041 Express 2019 boosted by e-commerce Express Express 2019-2041 CAGR +4.9% 17% 25% 215 billion 430 billion FTK FTK General 83% General cargo General 75
Slide 16: World freighter fleet in service will reach 3,070 aircraft by 2041
World freighter fleet in service will reach 3,070 aircraft by 2041 Source: Airbus GMF Note: Freighters with a payload above 10t Number of aircraft 3,070 • 2,030 aircraft in-service Grow beginning of 2020: – 31% will stay in-service (including 2020 & 2021 Deliveries and deliveries) Conversions – 69%
Slide 17: Global demand for ~2,440 freighters, over 2022-2041
Global demand for ~2,440 freighters, over 2022-2041 Single-Aisle Mid-size Widebody Large Widebody (10t - 40t) (40t - 80t) (> 80t) 990 aircraft 890 aircraft 560 aircraft 17 Global Market Forecast 2022
Slide 18: Passenger traffic expected to grow at 3.6% from 2019 to 2041
Passenger traffic expected to grow at 3.6% from 2019 to 2041 Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF World annual traffic (RPK trillion) 18 Global Market Forecast 2022
Slide 19: Mature flows will grow by approx. 2-3% per year
Mature flows will grow by approx. 2-3% per year Source: Airbus GMF Top 20 traffic flows (RPK) CAGR 2019-2041 (%) Annual RPK (billions) 19 Global Market Forecast 2022
Slide 20: Strong growth from Asia, domestic PRC to become the largest flow
Strong growth from Asia, domestic PRC to become the largest flow Source: Airbus GMF Top 20 traffic flows (RPK) CAGR 2019-2041 (%) Annual RPK (billions) 20 Global Market Forecast 2022
Slide 21: Demand for ~39,500 new passenger & freighter aircraft
Demand for ~39,500 new passenger & freighter aircraft Source: Airbus GMF Notes: Passenger aircraft above 100 seats & freighters with a payload above 10t Number of aircraft 46,930 • 22,880 aircraft in-service beginning of 2020: Grow – 33% will stay in-service (including 2020 & 2021 New deliveries del
Slide 22: Aircraft are utilised flexibly across the full scope of airline operations
Aircraft are utilised flexibly across the full scope of airline operations Source: OAG, Airbus GMF 2019 operations Seats Number of aircraft (Shade of blue proportional to number of aircraft) 1000 100 Typically Widebody 10 0 Single-Aisle or Widebody Typically Single-Aisle Distance (nm) 22 Global Mark
Slide 23: Global demand for ~39,500 new passenger & freighter aircraft
Global demand for ~39,500 new passenger & freighter aircraft Source: Airbus GMF Note: Demand for passenger aircraft above 100 seats & freighters with a payload above 10t Typically Single-Aisle Typically Widebody 31,620 aircraft 7,870 aircraft 80% share of total new del. 20% share of total new del. 2
Slide 24: ~39,500 new deliveries between 2022 and 2041
~39,500 new deliveries between 2022 and 2041 80% typically Single Aisle - 20% typically Widebody Source: Airbus GMF Notes: Passenger aircraft above 100 seats & freighters with a payload above 10t Europe & CIS North America PRC Middle East Latin America Asia/Pacific (excl. PRC) Typical Single Aisle A
Slide 25: By 2041, new generation passenger aircraft will represent >95% of the fleet
By 2041, new generation passenger aircraft will represent >95% of the fIeet Source: Cirium, Airbus GMF Number of passenger aircraft in service* * Western built passenger aircraft above 100 seats – pax aircraft only / **1st generation: A300, DC 9, DC10, 707, 727, 737, 747 / 2nd generation: A310, MD11
Slide 26: Global Market Forecast 2022-2041
Global Market Forecast 2022-2041 ● Air traffic demand is coming back strongly as the world adapts to Covid. Traffic will recover to 2019 levels between 2023 and 2025 ● GMF 2022 integrates effects of rising energy costs and stated policies ● Passenger traffic growth 3.6% CAGR Freight traffic growth 3
Slide 27: © AIRBUS
© AIRBUS (Airbus S.A.S., Airbus Operations S.A.S., Airbus Operations GmbH, Airbus Operations LTD, Airbus Operations SL, Airbus China LTD, Airbus (Tianjin) Final Assembly Company LTD, Airbus (Tianjin) Delivery Centre LTD). All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. This document and