Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company) · NYSE:DUK
Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company) — Corporate Update (August 2021)
33 slides from Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company)'s corporate update, Aug 4, 2021
Slide 1: 2021 Integrated Resource Plan Stakeholder Workshop #5
2021 Integrated Resource Plan Stakeholder Workshop #5 August 4, 2021
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda 9:30 Welcome, Protocols & Timeline 9:40 Follow ups from 4th meeting 9:50 Modeling DSM 10:30 Presentation from MISO 11:15 Wrap Up Page 2
Slide 3: Road Map for IRP Stakeholder Process
ROAD MAP FOR IRP STAKEHOLDER PROCESS Workshop 1 Workshop 2 Workshop 3 Workshop 4 Workshop Workshop Workshop 6 Workshop 7 Nov. 20, Jan. 21, 2021 April 21, June 21, 5a 5b Late Sept. Mid-Oct. 2020 2021 2021 August 4, Late August 2021 2021 2021 2021 Goals of IRP Recap Recap Follow-ups: Follow-
Slide 4: Follow ups from 4th IRP Stakeholder Meeting
Follow ups from 4th IRP Stakeholder Meeting • Q&A log • MISO CO2 • Horizon database • Biden 95% • Ownership assumption on cost Page 4
Slide 5: Modeling DSM
Modeling DSM DUKE page 5 ENERGY. ° dp
Slide 6: 2021 Market Potential Study (MPS)
2021 Market Potential Study (MPS) Duke Energy Indiana (DEI) retained Nexant to estimate the potential of demand-side management (DSM) programs in the DEI service territory including both energy efficiency (EE) and demand response (DR) programs. • Extensive Indiana Oversight Board (OSB) engagement an
Slide 7: 2021 MPS – Achievable Potential Scenarios
2021 MPS – Achievable Potential Scenarios Achievable program potential was estimated for five scenarios: • Base scenario with all customers – includes all DEI customers and includes existing EE programs and measures currently offered. • Base scenario excluding opt-outs – aligns with existing EE prog
Slide 8: 2021 MPS – EE Potential Summary
2021 MPS – EE Potential Summary Cumulative EE Potential (2021-2045) Energy – GWh % of 2045 Base Demand – MW Demand – MW Sales (Summer) (Winter) Technical 9,318 32% 1362 1308 Economic 7,040 24%Achievable EE Potential 25 Year Cumulative 1020 (2045) 1000 Scenario Energy – Avg. Annual % Base MW MW GWh S
Slide 9: 2021 MPS – 5 Year Achievable Potential
2021 MPS – 5 Year Achievable Potential 5 Year Cumulative Achievable EE Potential (2025) Scenario Energy Avg. Annual % Base MW MW – GWh Sales (Summer) (Winter) Base – Opt Outs 696 1.31% 112 101 Enhanced – Exp. Measures 741 1.36% 118 107 Enhanced – Inc. Spending 784 1.42% 121 114 Enhanced – Avoided Co
Slide 10: EE modeling in the 2021 IRP
EE modeling in the 2021 IRP In order to model utility sponsored EE as a selectable resource, this portion of EE must be removed from the load forecast and “bundled” for economic selection by the resource planning model: • EE bundles are developed from measure data from the current portfolio filing a
Slide 11: EE Bundle Design – 2021 IRP
EE Bundle Design – 2021 IRP • Bundles developed from two of the five 2021 Market Potential Study (MPS) scenarios: • Enhanced Scenario with Expanded Measures • Avoided Cost Sensitivity Bundle Structure for each Achievable Potential Scenario Time Period Years Measures Included 2021-2023 3 Current DEI
Slide 12: Cumulative EE Bundle Savings (Expanded Measures)
Cumulative EE Bundle Savings (Expanded Measures) * “Rolloff” of EE measure impacts is accounted for in load forecast Page 12
Slide 13: Demand Response
Demand Response Resource Description • Dispatchable resource where the company pays customers an option payment for the right to curtail specific customer loads during periods of high energy demand Advantages • Opportunity for customers to lower bill in exchange for interruption of select loads • Us
Slide 14: MPS - Incremental DR Achievable Potential by 2045
MPS - Incremental DR Achievable Potential by 2045 DR Summer Program Potential (MW) DR Winter Program Potential (MW) 600.0 450.0 550.0 400.0 500.0 350.0 450.0 400.0 300.0 350.0 250.0 MW MW 300.0 200.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 150.0 100.0 100.0 50.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 Base Enhanced Base Enhanced Large C&I 256.4 38
Slide 15: 2021 IRP DR Forecast
2021 IRP DR Forecast Summer Capability (MW) Winter Capability (MW) 540 540.00 520 520.00 500 500.00 480 480.00 460 460.00 440 440.00 420 420.00 400 400.00 2021 2026 2021 2026 Non-Residential Residential Non-Residential Residential Page 15
Slide 16: Questions?
Questions? DUKE ENERGY. Page 26 dp
Slide 17: Duke Stakeholder Meeting
Duke Stakeholder Meeting August 4, 2021 Page 17
Slide 18: MISO drives value creation through efficient and reliable markets
MISO drives value creation through efficient and reliable markets, operations, planning, and innovation Our Vision: To be the most reliable, value-creating RTO MISO by-the-numbers High Voltage Transmission 65,800 miles Generation Capacity 174,000 MW Peak Summer System 127,125 MW Demand (07-20-11) Cu
Slide 19: MISO's Key Functions
MISO’s Key Functions 1. Keeping the Lights On: Safe and reliable operation of the electric grid 2. Operating Open Energy Markets: Scheduling and economic dispatch of generation to support reliability and efficiencies across the system 3. Performing Transmission Planning: Comprehensive expansion plan
Slide 20: The February Arctic Event and other challenges reaffirm MISO's Reliability Imperative
The February Arctic Event and other challenges reaffirm and add urgency to MISO’s Reliability Imperative efforts Early 2010s Mid 2010s Late 2010s 2011 2012 2014 2018 2019 2020 Texas Eastern US Midwest, East Coast Gulf Coast Midwest California Cold Weather Derecho Blackout Polar Vortex Hurricane Mich
Slide 21: The Reliability Imperative efforts will enable member / state goals
The Reliability Imperative efforts will enable member / state goals with coordinated enhancements across multiple areas Long Range Transmission Market Redefinition Planning (LRTP) Aims to ensure that resources with Assesses future transmission needed capabilities and attributes needs holistically, r
Slide 22: In 2022, regional surpluses and transmission remain sufficient
In 2022, regional surpluses and transmission remain sufficient to cover zones with potential resource deficits 2022 Regional Outlook, UCAP GW (% Reserves) 2022 Outlook - UCAP (GW) as a % of 25% forecasted load 20.6% 20% 7.1 GW 160% 15% 3.4 GW 140% 10% 3.4 1 day in 10 120% PRM (9.3%) 137.1… 100% 5% 8
Slide 23: 2022 Resource Adequacy Forecast Zone 6
Committed Resources 2022 Resource Adequacy Forecast Potential Resources Zone 6 Total Demand and Requirement LCR ‐ Local Clearing Requirement 20.0 0.5 0.0 1.3 18.0 1.0 0.2 16.0 6.1 14.0 12.0 GW 10.0 17.1 17.9 8.0 6.0 12.5 4.0 2.0 0.0 High Certainty Firm Imports into Firm Exports out of Total High Cer
Slide 24: By 2026, additional Committed Capacity is needed to meet regional requirements
By 2026, while at least 4 GW of additional Committed Capacity is needed to meet regional requirements, 5 zones must convert Potential Capacity to Committed to be self-sufficient against their local Requirements 2026 Regional Outlook, UCAP GW (% Reserves) 2026 Outlook - UCAP (GW) as a % of 25% foreca
Slide 25: 2026 Resource Adequacy Forecast Zone 6
Committed Resources 2026 Resource Adequacy Forecast Potential Resources Zone 6 Total Demand and Reserve Requirement Zone 6 2021 OMS MISO Survey GW (UCAP) 20.0 18.0 16.0 2.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 14.0 18.9 12.0 14.8 14.1 10.0 8.0 High Certainty Firm Imports into Firm Exports out of Total High Certainty Int
Slide 26: MISO expects to rely more on transparency and market price signals
MISO expects to rely more heavily on increased transparency in the planning horizon coupled with market price signals in the operating horizon to incentivize needed resources Page 26
Slide 27: MISO Futures build on members' resource plans and changing demand patterns
MISO Futures build on members’ resource plans and changing demand patterns, including implications of electrification Future 1 Future 2 Future 3 • Resource fleet 17 utilities • Companies/states • Companies/states have energy develops in line meet their goals, meet their goals, goals greater with 100
Slide 28: MISO Futures reflect significant capacity retirements and additions
MISO Futures reflect the significant capacity retirements and additions that are planned Future 1 Future 3 Generation Capacity Generation Capacity (GW) (GW) 400 400 +330 389 29 36 350 350 107 300 300 108 250 250 +121 215 8 200 200 105 171 -77 50 51 171 -112 117 10 9 10 9 150 19 150 21 19 21 31 51 45
Slide 29: Growing renewables are driving localized reliability issues
Growing renewables are driving localized reliability issues now; the Renewable Integration Impact Assessment finds that these challenges will become footprint-wide beyond 30% system-wide renewable penetration Risk patterns are shifting, and new risks are emerging due to the increasing penetration of
Slide 30: Long Range Transmission Planning projects will promote regional energy transfer
Long Range Transmission Planning projects will promote regional energy transfer, interzonal support, resource integration, and retirements Future 1 Future 1, 2, 3 Indicative ‘Roadmaps’ (as of June 2021) Voltage Level (kV) Indicative ‘Cost to Achieve’* ($ Billion) Future 1 Future 1, 2, 3 New Generati
Slide 31: Closing Comments, Stakeholder Comments
Closing Comments, Stakeholder Comments Page 31
Slide 32: Wrap Up
Wrap Up • Meeting survey to be sent out in the next week to attendees • Comments can also be sent to: • Scott at: scott.park@duke-energy.com • Stewart at: stewart@vanry.com • Meeting summary and other materials will be posted on website by Aug 12 • https://www.duke-energy.com/home/products/in-2021-i
Slide 33: Acronyms
Acronyms AMI Advanced Metering Infrastructure LMI Low-Medium Income CHP Combined Heat & Power MW Megawatt NEM Net Energy Metering CPP Critical Peak Pricing NDA Non-disclosure agreement CS Small Commercial PPA Purchase Power Agreement DR Demand Response PVRR Present Value of Revenue Requirements DER