Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company) · NYSE:DUK

Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company) — Q4 2024 Earnings Presentation

62 slides from Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company)'s earnings presentation, Feb 13, 2025

  1. Slide 1: Earnings Review and Business Update

    Q4 / 2024 Earnings Review and Business Update Lynn Good / Chair and CEO Harry Sideris / President Brian Savoy / Executive Vice President and CFO February 13, 2025 // 1

  2. Slide 2: Safe Harbor statement; Regulation G disclosure

    Safe Harbor statement This presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Actual results could differ materially from such forward- looking statements. The factors that could cause actual results to differ are discussed herein and in Duke Energy’s

  3. Slide 3: Safe harbor statement

    Safe harbor statement This document includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements are based on management’s beliefs and assumptions and can often be identified by

  4. Slide 4: Financial highlights

    Financial highlights $5.71 / $5.90 $83 BILLION 2024 REPORTED / ADJUSTED EPS 5-YR CAPEX PLAN ~12% INCREASE FROM PRIOR CAPEX PLAN ADJUSTED EARNINGS ~7.7% EARNINGS BASE PER SHARE GROWTH DRIVEN BY GENERATION INVESTMENTS TO SERVE GROWING JURISDICTIONS $6.17 - $6.42 $5.90 $5.90 EXTENDING 5% – 7% $5.56 EAR

  5. Slide 5: 2024 accomplishments

    2024 accomplishments CONTINUED ADVANCING SUSTAINED REGULATORY EXECUTION NEW GENERATION OPERATIONAL EXCELLENCE  ~$45 billion of historic and future rate  Carolinas resource plan approved in  Excellent response to historic storm base investments approved North Carolina and South Carolina season, re

  6. Slide 6: Significant investments in critical infrastructure

    Significant investments in critical infrastructure Expect ~5 GW of new natural gas …Supporting “All of the above” in service by year-end 2029… generation strategy  Adding natural gas to provide dispatchable power to  Advancing solar procurement in the Carolinas and serve our growing regions Florid

  7. Slide 7: Transforming the largest T&D system in the U.S.

    Transforming the largest T&D system in the U.S. INVESTING ~$37 BILLION IN OUR GRID GRID INVESTMENT DRIVERS OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS  State-specific, multi-year investment plans focused on  Supports customer additions in improving reliability and resiliency our growing service territories  Support

  8. Slide 8: 2025 Financial outlook – adjusted EPS waterfall

    2025 Financial outlook – adjusted EPS waterfall Electric Utilities & Gas Utilities & Other Infrastructure Infrastructure ($0.23) $0.53 $0.10 ▲ Rate cases and riders ▲ Customer growth ▼ Interest expense ▼ Interest expense ▼ Dilution $6.30 Midpoint ▲ Customer growth and $5.90 economic development ▲ No

  9. Slide 9: Retail electric volumes

    Retail electric volumes 3% – 4% LOAD GROWTH BEGINNING IN 2027 Enterprise load growth  Carolinas and Florida continue to be top states for population migration 3% - 4%  2.4% customer growth in the Carolinas and 2.3% in Florida from 2023 to 2024 1.5% - 2%  Accelerated load growth beginning in 2027

  10. Slide 10: Long-term growth supported by robust capital plan

    Long-term growth supported by robust capital plan ~12% increase in 5-year capital plan driven ~7.7% EARNINGS BASE CAGR SUPPORTED by generation investments BY $83 BILLION CAPITAL PLAN  Resilient capital plan underpinned by regulated +12% $83B investments reflected in integrated resource plans and mu

  11. Slide 11: Strong balance sheet supports our long-term growth strategy

    Strong balance sheet supports our long-term growth strategy  Delivered 13.9% FFO / Debt in 2024  Targeting 14% FFO / Debt by end of 2025 Committed to current credit  Expect FFO / Debt to improve above 14% over the 5-year plan ratings  Represents >100 bps above Moody’s and >200 bps above S&P’s do

  12. Slide 12: Our investor value proposition

    Our investor value proposition A STRONG LONG-TERM RETURN PROPOSITION 3.6% ~10% 5 -7% DIVIDEND YIELD(1) ATTRACTIVE zzz LONG-TERM WITH LONG-TERM RISK-ADJUSTED EPS GROWTH(4) DIVIDEND GROWTH TOTAL SHAREHOLDER THROUGH 2029 COMMITMENT(2) RETURN(3) CONSTRUCTIVE, GROWING JURISDICTIONS, LOWER-RISK REGULATED

  13. Slide 13: Appendix

    APPENDIX // 13

  14. Slide 14: Pure play regulated utility operating in constructive, growing jurisdictions

    Pure play regulated utility operating in constructive, growing jurisdictions Powering the Southeast and Midwest  Significant economic development from data centers and advanced manufacturing drives long-term growth  Carolinas and Florida remain top states for population migration $83 billion five-

  15. Slide 15: Indiana's Integrated Resource Plan submitted on November 1, 2024

    Indiana’s Integrated Resource Plan submitted on November 1, 2024 KEY HIGHLIGHTS  Over the 20-year planning horizon, the IRP relies on a balanced mix of resources to meet growing demand for power and new MISO planning requirements  Key components of the plan include:  Adding nearly 2.9 GW of dispa

  16. Slide 16: Emerging technology advancements

    Emerging technology advancements  Researching multiple megawatt-scale, non-lithium long duration (8+ hours) energy storage technologies, including testing EnerVenue nickel hydrogen ENERGY battery, EOS Gen 3 zinc battery, and GKN hydrogen storage unit STORAGE  Commissioned and testing 100 residenti

  17. Slide 17: Key 2025 adjusted earnings guidance assumptions

    Key 2025 adjusted earnings guidance assumptions 2025 Interest Expense Assumption ($ in millions) Original 2024 2024 2025 (Consolidated Total $3,625) Assumptions(1) Actual(1) Assumptions Adjusted segment income/(expense)(2): $1,225 Electric Utilities & Infrastructure $4,890 $4,838 $5,290 $2,150 Gas U

  18. Slide 18: Electric utilities quarterly weather impacts

    Electric utilities quarterly weather impacts Weather segment 2024 2023 income to normal: Pretax Weighted EPS impact Pretax Weighted EPS impact impact avg. shares favorable / impact avg. shares favorable / ($ in millions) (unfavorable) ($ in millions) (unfavorable) First Quarter ($66) 771 ($0.07) ($2

  19. Slide 19: Key 2025 earnings sensitivities

    Key 2025 earnings sensitivities Full-year Driver EPS Impact 1% change in earned return on equity +/- $0.69 $1 billion change in rate base +/- $0.07 Electric Utilities & 1% change in Electric Utilities volumes Infrastructure Industrial +/- $0.02(2) +/- $0.12(1)(2) Commercial +/- $0.05(2) Residential

  20. Slide 20: Five- and ten-year capital plans

    Five- and ten-year capital plans PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL CAPEX PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL CAPEX 2025-2029(1) 2025-2034(1) Environmental Corp, IT & Cyber Environmental Corp, IT & Cyber Remediation ~4% Coal Maintenance Remediation ~4% ~3% ~1% ~2% $73B ~5% ~5% Coal Maintenance ~1% Gas Gen Gas Gen Maintenance Gas

  21. Slide 21: Regulated utilities end of year earnings base

    Regulated utilities end of year earnings base(1) Electric Utilities Earnings Base ($ in billions) 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E Duke Energy Carolinas $34.7 $37.9 $41.0 $45.1 $49.3 $54.2 Duke Energy Progress 23.0 25.4 27.6 30.3 32.9 35.5 Duke Energy Florida 20.7 22.6 23.9 25.1 25.9 26.8 Duke In

  22. Slide 22: Capital expenditures profile

    Capital expenditures profile(1) ($ in millions) Capital Expenditures 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2025 - 2029 Electric Generation(2) 2,990 4,500 5,900 7,700 8,450 9,100 35,650 Electric T ransmission 2,214 2,675 2,450 2,575 2,850 2,625 13,175 Electric Distribution 5,216 5,375 4,575 4,325 4,275

  23. Slide 23: Capital expenditures by utility (continued)

    Capital expenditures by utility (continued)(1) ($ in millions) Duke Energy Carolinas 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2025 - 2029 Electric Generation 1,164 1,725 2,475 3,675 4,100 4,775 16,750 Electric Transmission 594 775 925 850 1,125 1,475 5,150 Electric Distribution 2,095 2,000 1,600 1,450 1,

  24. Slide 24: Capital expenditures by utility (continued)

    Capital expenditures by utility (continued)(1) ($ in millions) Duke Energy Florida 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2025 - 2029 Electric Generation 456 800 800 750 750 675 3,775 Electric Transmission 734 625 550 550 500 500 2,725 Electric Distribution 1,203 1,250 1,075 1,075 1,025 1,075 5,500 Env

  25. Slide 25: Capital expenditures by utility (continued)

    Capital expenditures by utility (continued)(1) ($ in millions) Duke Energy OH/KY Electric 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2025 - 2029 Electric Generation 55 50 75 100 75 25 325 Electric T ransmission 158 175 200 225 225 175 1,000 Electric Distribution 302 350 325 325 300 350 1,650 Environmental

  26. Slide 26: Weather normalized volume trends, by electric jurisdiction

    Weather normalized volume trends, by electric jurisdiction Rolling Twelve Months, as of December 31, 2024 Duke Energy Duke Energy Duke Energy Duke Energy Duke Energy Electric Carolinas Progress Florida Indiana Ohio/Kentucky Utilities 3.8% 2.8% 2.9% 1.7% 1.7% 2.1% 1.8% 2.0% 1.3% 1.4% 1.6% 1.3% 1.2% 0

  27. Slide 27: Managing regulatory lag and customer rate impacts

    Managing regulatory lag and customer rate impacts ADJUSTED BOOK ROEs(1) COMPETITIVE CUSTOMER RATES(2) RESIDENTIAL 10.0 - 10.5% U.S. AVG. 17.42 10.7% DEP (SC) 16.02 Carolinas 9.7% DEP (NC) 15.73 10.9% DEO 15.57 DEF 15.47 10.0 - 10.5% DEC (SC) 14.22 10.2% DEC (NC) 14.22 Florida DEK 13.90 10.8% 10.6% D

  28. Slide 28: 2025 Financing plan

    2025 Financing plan Estimated / Notional Pre- Issuer Actual Amount Issuance Hedges Security Date Issued Term Rate(1) 2025 Maturities(2) ($ millions) ($ millions) $1,820 Holding Company $3,000 - $3,400 $1,725 (Apr., Sep. & Dec.) $400 5-year 4.85% DE Carolinas $350 Senior Debt January 2025 $500 (Jan.)

  29. Slide 29: Liquidity summary (as of December 31, 2024)

    Liquidity summary (as of December 31, 2024) ($ in millions) Duke Duke Duke Duke Duke Duke Piedmont Duke Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Natural Energy Carolinas Progress Florida Indiana Ohio Kentucky Gas Total (1) Master Credit Facility $ 2,275 $ 1,400 $ 1,500 $ 875 $ 950 $ 825 $ 225 $ 950

  30. Slide 30: 2025 Pension funding and costs

    2025 Pension funding and costs  On a consolidated basis, Duke Energy pension Pension plans are 115% funded as of 12/31/2024 Contributions 2023A 2024A 2025E ($ in millions)  Duke Energy’s pension funding policy: All plans $100 $100 $0  Duke Energy’s policy is to fund amounts on an actuarial basis

  31. Slide 31: Simplified financing structure

    Simplified financing structure Duke Energy (HoldCo) Cinergy Corp. Progress Energy (HoldCo) (HoldCo)(1) Duke Energy Duke Energy Duke Energy Duke Energy Duke Energy Piedmont Natural Carolinas Ohio Indiana Holdco(2) Progress Florida Gas Commercial Paper and LT Financings Duke Energy Duke Energy Money P

  32. Slide 32: Credit ratings and 2024 credit metrics

    Credit ratings and 2024 credit metrics(1) Current Ratings Moody’s S&P INDUSTRY OUTLOOK Stable Negative DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION Stable Stable Senior Unsecured Debt Baa2 BBB Commercial Paper P-2 A-2 PROGRESS ENERGY, INC Stable Stable Senior Unsecured Debt Baa1 BBB Duke Energy Corporation DUKE ENERGY C

  33. Slide 33: Electric utilities & infrastructure recovery mechanisms

    Electric utilities & infrastructure recovery mechanisms RECOVERY MECHANISMS FOR ELECTRIC CAPEX(1)  ~90% of electric segment capital investments are eligible for modern recovery mechanisms, mitigating regulatory lag  Includes recovery through riders, rate cases with forecasted test years, and multi

  34. Slide 34: Overview of state commissions by jurisdiction

    Overview of state commissions by jurisdiction North South Florida Indiana Ohio Kentucky Tennessee Carolina(1) Carolina(2) Number of 7 7 5 5 5 2 7 Commissioners Term (years) 6 4 4 4 5 3 6 Appointed by Appointed by Appointed by Appointed by Elected by the Appointed by Appointed by Appointed/Elected Go

  35. Slide 35: Current electric rate information by jurisdiction

    Current electric rate information by jurisdiction North South Ohio Kentucky Florida Indiana Carolina Carolina (Electric) (Electric) $21.8 B(1) (DEC) $7.4 B(2) (DEC) $2.0 B Retail Rate Base $20.6 B(3) $12.5 B(5) $1.1 B $13.9 B(1) (DEP) $1.8 B(2) (DEP) (dist. only) $2.5 B (DEC) 3Q 2024 $1.6 B Wholesal

  36. Slide 36: Current electric rate information by jurisdiction (continued)

    Current electric rate information by jurisdiction (continued) General Rate Case North South Ohio Kentucky Florida Indiana Provisions Carolina Carolina (Electric) (Electric) Notice of Intent Required? Yes Yes Yes Yes(1) Yes Yes Notice Period 30 Days 30 Days 60 Days 30 Days(2) 30 Days 30 Days Base Rat

  37. Slide 37: Current gas rate information by jurisdiction

    Current gas rate information by jurisdiction North South Ohio Kentucky Tennessee Carolina Carolina (Gas) (Gas) Rate Base $6.4 billion $655 million $1.2 billion $1.9 billion $466 million 9.375% for base rates Allowed ROE 9.8% 9.3% 9.8% 9.6% 9.3% for riders Allowed Equity 52.3% 53.22% 49.09% 52.32% 51

  38. Slide 38: Duke Energy – a large scale, highly regulated energy infrastructure company

    Duke Energy – a large scale, highly regulated energy infrastructure company HEADQUARTERED IN CHARLOTTE, NC ELECTRIC UTILITIES & GAS UTILITIES & INFRASTRUCTURE INFRASTRUCTURE Operations A FORTUNE 150 COMPANY $90 B MARKET CAP (AS OF 2/11/2025) Retail Customers ~8.6 million in six states ~1.7 million i

  39. Slide 39: Electric utilities & infrastructure

    Electric utilities & infrastructure EIGHT UTILITIES IN HIGH-QUALITY REGIONS OF THE U.S. CAROLINAS FLORIDA MIDWEST Duke Energy Carolinas Duke Energy Progress Duke Energy Florida Duke Energy Duke Energy (NC/SC) (NC/SC) Indiana Ohio / Kentucky REGULATED ELECTRIC REGULATED ELECTRIC BALANCED 2024 EARNING

  40. Slide 40: Gas utilities & infrastructure

    Gas utilities & infrastructure GAS UTILITIES WITH LOW VOLUMETRIC EXPOSURE DUE TO MOSTLY FIXED MARGINS… MARGIN STABILIZING MECHANISMS 13% 15% 1. Purchased Gas All States 72% Adjustment 87% MOSTLY 2. Uncollectible Recovery All States FIXED 3. Integrity Management Rider North Carolina MARGINS (“IMR”) 4

  41. Slide 41: Upcoming events & other

    UPCOMING EVENTS & OTHER // 41

  42. Slide 42: Upcoming events

    Upcoming events Event Date 1Q 2025 earnings call (tentative) May 6, 2025 2Q 2025 earnings call (tentative) August 5, 2025 3Q 2025 earnings call (tentative) November 7, 2025 FOURTH QUARTER 2024 EARNINGS REVIEW AND BUSINESS UPDATE // 42

  43. Slide 43: Investor relations contact information

    Investor relations contact information ABBY MOTSINGER, VICE PRESIDENT INVESTOR RELATIONS  Abby.Motsinger@duke-energy.com  (704) 382-7624 CHRIS JACOBI, DIRECTOR INVESTOR RELATIONS  Christopher.Jacobi@duke-energy.com  (704) 382-8397 PAIGE SWOFFORD, MANAGER INVESTOR RELATIONS  Paige.Swofford@duke-

  44. Slide 44: For additional information on Duke Energy

    HEADLINE GOES HERE For additional information on Duke Energy, please visit: duke-energy.com/investors FOURTH QUARTER 2024 EARNINGS REVIEW AND BUSINESS UPDATE // 44

  45. Slide 45: Non-GAAP Reconciliations: Adjusted Earnings per Share

    Duke Energy Corporation Non-GAAP Reconciliations Fourth Quarter Earnings Review & Business Update February 13, 2025 Adjusted Earnings per Share (EPS) The materials for Duke Energy Corporation’s (Duke Energy) Fourth Quarter Earnings Review and Business Update on February 13, 2025, include a discussio

  46. Slide 46: Adjusted EPS Guidance

    Adjusted EPS Guidance The materials for Duke Energy’s Fourth Quarter Earnings Review and Business Update on February 13, 2025, include a reference to the forecasted 2024 adjusted EPS guidance range. The materials also include a reference to the 2025 adjusted EPS guidance range of $6.17 to $6.42, wit

  47. Slide 47: Adjusted Effective Tax Rate

    Adjusted Effective Tax Rate The materials for Duke Energy’s Fourth Quarter Earnings Review and Business Update on February 13, 2025, include a discussion of the adjusted effective tax rate for the year-to-date period ended December 31, 2024. The materials also include a discussion of the 2024 and 20

  48. Slide 48: Funds From Operations (FFO) to Debt Ratio

    Funds From Operations (FFO) to Debt Ratio The materials for Duke Energy’s Fourth Quarter Earnings Review and Business Update on February 13, 2025, include a reference to the historical and expected FFO to Debt ratio. This ratio reflects non-GAAP financial measures. The numerator of the FFO to Debt r

  49. Slide 49: Reported to Adjusted Earnings Reconciliation, Year Ended December 31, 2024

    DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION REPORTED TO ADJUSTED EARNINGS RECONCILIATION Year Ended December 31, 2024 (Dollars in millions, except per share amounts) Special Items Noncore System Post- Preferred Asset Sales Captive Reported Regulatory Implementation Redemption and Net Storm Discontinued Total Adjusted E

  50. Slide 50: Reported to Adjusted Earnings Reconciliation, Year Ended December 31, 2023

    DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION REPORTED TO ADJUSTED EARNINGS RECONCILIATION Year Ended December 31, 2023 (Dollars in millions, except per share amounts) Special Items Reported Regulatory Organizational Discontinued Total Adjusted Earnings Matters Optimization Operations Adjustments Earnings SEGMENT INCOME

  51. Slide 51: Effective Tax Reconciliation December 2024

    DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION EFFECTIVE TAX RECONCILIATION December 2024 (Dollars in millions) Three Months Ended Year Ended December 31, 2024 December 31, 2024 Effective Tax Effective Tax Balance Rate Balance Rate Reported Income From Continuing Operations Before Income Taxes $ 1,338 $ 5,194 Regulatory M

  52. Slide 52: Adjusted Book Return on Equity, 2024

    DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION ADJUSTED BOOK RETURN ON EQUITY (ROEs) For the period ended December 31, 2024 dollars in millions Duke Energy Duke Energy Duke Energy Duke Energy Duke Energy Ohio Reportable Carolinas Progress Total Carolinas Florida Indiana Segments Piedmont Reported Net Income 2024 $ 1,883 $

  53. Slide 53: Adjusted Book Return on Equity, 2023

    DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION ADJUSTED BOOK RETURN ON EQUITY (ROEs) For the period ended December 31, 2023 dollars in millions Duke Energy Duke Energy Duke Energy Duke Energy Duke Energy Ohio Reportable Carolinas Progress Total Carolinas Florida Indiana Segments Piedmont Reported Net Income 2023 $ 1,470 $

  54. Slide 54: Adjusted Book Return on Equity, 2022

    DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION ADJUSTED BOOK RETURN ON EQUITY (ROEs) For the period ended December 31, 2022 dollars in millions Duke Energy Duke Energy Duke Energy Duke Energy Duke Energy Ohio Reportable Carolinas Progress Total Carolinas Florida Indiana Segments Piedmont Reported Net Income 2022 $ 1,600 $

  55. Slide 55: Available Liquidity Reconciliation

    Duke Energy Corporation Available Liquidity Reconciliation As of December 31, 2024 (In millions) Cash and Cash Equivalents $ 314 Less: Certain Amounts Held in Foreign Jurisdictions (7) Less: Unavailable Domestic Cash (49) 258 Plus: Remaining Availability under Master Credit Facilities and other faci

  56. Slide 56: FFO to Debt Calculation: Duke Energy Corporation

    FFO to Debt Calculation Duke Energy Corporation (in millions) Year Ended December 31, 2024 Actual Cash From Operations 12,284 Adjust for Working Capital (1) (2,000) Coal ash ARO spend 463 Include Capitalized Interest as cost (201) Hybrid interest adjustment 34 Preferred stock adjustment (46) CR3 sec

  57. Slide 57: FFO to Debt Calculation: Duke Energy Carolinas

    FFO to Debt Calculation Duke Energy Carolinas (in millions) Year Ended December 31, 2024 Actual Cash From Operations 4,537 Adjust for Working Capital (1) (1,665) ARO spend 180 Include Capitalized Interest as cost (61) Storm securitization (7) Lease-imputed FFO adjustment (D&A) 60 Adjustment for 2024

  58. Slide 58: FFO to Debt Calculation: Duke Energy Progress

    FFO to Debt Calculation Duke Energy Progress (in millions) Year Ended December 31, 2024 Actual Cash From Operations 2,490 Adjust for Working Capital (1) (643) Coal ash ARO spend 197 Include Capitalized Interest as cost (52) Storm securitization (31) Lease-imputed FFO adjustment (D&A) 60 Adjustment f

  59. Slide 59: FFO to Debt Calculation: Duke Energy Florida

    FFO to Debt Calculation Duke Energy Florida (in millions) Year Ended December 31, 2024 Actual Cash From Operations 2,570 Adjust for Working Capital (1) (383) Include Capitalized Interest as cost (5) CR3 securitization adjustment (63) Lease-imputed FFO adjustment (D&A) 74 Funds From Operations 2,193

  60. Slide 60: FFO to Debt Calculation: Duke Energy Indiana

    FFO to Debt Calculation Duke Energy Indiana (in millions) Year Ended December 31, 2024 Actual Cash From Operations 1,023 Adjust for Working Capital (1) (47) Coal ash ARO spend 80 Include Capitalized Interest as cost (13) Lease-imputed FFO adjustment (D&A) 21 Funds From Operations 1,064 Notes payable

  61. Slide 61: FFO to Debt Calculation: Duke Energy Ohio

    FFO to Debt Calculation Duke Energy Ohio (in millions) Year Ended December 31, 2024 Actual Cash From Operations 860 Adjust for Working Capital (1) (146) Coal Ash ARO spend 6 Include capitalized Interest as cost (14) Lease-imputed FFO adjustment (D&A) 12 Funds From Operations 718 Notes payable to aff

  62. Slide 62: FFO to Debt Calculation: Piedmont Natural Gas

    FFO to Debt Calculation Piedmont Natural Gas (in millions) Year Ended December 31, 2024 Actual Cash From Operations 658 Adjust for Working Capital (1) 48 Include Capitalized Interest as cost (8) Lease-imputed FFO adjustment (D&A) 2 Funds From Operations 700 Notes payable to affiliated companies 739

Duke Energy Corporation (Holding Company) — Q4 2024 Earnings Presentation on 6ix