Blue Bird Corporation · NASDAQ:BLBD
Blue Bird — Q1 2023 Earnings Presentation
29 slides from Blue Bird's earnings presentation, Feb 8, 2023
Slide 1: First Quarter Results Earnings Conference Call
BLUE BIRD CORPORATION (NASDAQ: BLBD) FY2023 First Quarter Results Earnings Conference Call February 08, 2023
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda Introductions & Mark Benfield Forward-Looking Statements Executive Director, Investor Relations Results and Highlights Matthew Stevenson President & CEO Financial Results Razvan Radulescu CFO Outlook Matthew Stevenson President & CEO Q&A Group This presentation includes forward-looking statem
Slide 3: Important Disclaimers: Forward Looking Statements
Important Disclaimers Forward Looking Statements This presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the “safe harbor” provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements relate to expectations for future financial performance,
Slide 4: Important Disclaimers: Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Important Disclaimers Non-GAAP Financial Measures This presentation may include the following non-GAAP financial measures: “Adjusted EBITDA,” "Adjusted EBITDA Margin," “Adjusted Net Income,” “Adjusted Diluted Earnings per Share,” “Free Cash Flow” and “Adjusted Free Cash Flow.” Additional information
Slide 5: Results and Highlights
RESULTS AND HIGHLIGHTS Matthew Stevenson President & CEO 5
Slide 6: Key Takeaways for the Fiscal Year 2023 – Q1
Key Takeaways for the Fiscal Year 2023 – Q1 Strong Market Demand & Backlog Continues The Last Major Tranche of Legacy Priced Units Built Aggressively Managed Internal Costs Best Operational Performance in Nearly Two Years Clean School Bus Program Orders in Progress Market continues to be strong, bus
Slide 7: FY2023 Q1 Financial Results and Ongoing Business Highlights
FY2023 Q1 Financial Results and Ongoing Business Highlights Phase 1 of EPA FY2023 Q1 Results Strong Funding Orders Being $675M+ FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS BUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS Placed Backlog of 5.3k Units1 $965 UNITS NET SOLD SALES Growing EV ~$120M 1,957 $236M of EV’s in ~$1 Billion 808 vs.’22 $107M vs.’2
Slide 8: Significant Progress Across the Business
Significant Progress Across the Business Operational Performance Volume & Revenue Best Performance in Nearly Two Years Q1 Records in Several Key Areas ✓ Revenue ✓ Missing parts at Set-up ✓ Volume ✓ Plant efficiency ✓ EV Bookings ✓ Overtime ✓ Alt Fuel Mix ✓ Hours per bus ✓ Parts Sales Further proof t
Slide 9: Reminder Key Focus Areas FY2022
Reminder Key Focus Areas FY2022 Our People Lean Transformation Expanding Our TAM Scaling EV 9
Slide 10: Lean Transformation Occurring Throughout Our Facility
Lean Transformation Occurring Throughout Our Facility Quality Leadership Teams Andon Boards New A/C Center New Detail Center Daily Huddle Meetings Chassis Line Area Final Finish Area 10
Slide 11: EPA Clean School Bus Rebate Program
EPA Clean School Bus Rebate Program Program Overview 2022 Lottery Results $5B funding over 5 years Blue Bird Corporate and Dealers Other OEMs ~300 Loyal BB Customers and ~$1B released in 2022 690 200- Channel Partners 400 2,468 Buses awarded at 391 School Districts ~1,200 Unallocated winnings Short-
Slide 12: Financial Results
FINANCIAL RESULTS Razvan Radulescu CFO 12
Slide 13: FY2023 Q1 Financial Results
FY2023 Q1 Financial Results FY2023 Q1 Results FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS UNITS NET SOLD SALES 1,957 $236M 808 vs.’22 $107M vs.’22 Adjusted Adjusted EBITDA FCF $(4)M $20M $(8)M vs.’22 $54M vs.’22 See appendix for additional detail regarding non-GAAP measures 13
Slide 14: Income Statement
Income Statement ($ Millions) FY2023-Q1 FY2022-Q1 B/(W) Unit Volume 1,957 1,149 808 Unit Backlog 5,335 4,854 481 Net Revenue $235.7 $129.2 $106.5 Bus Rev./Unit ($000's) $109.0 $97.9 $11.1 / 10% Gross Margin 3.2% 12.5% (930) bps Adj. Net Income1 $(9.8) $(2.0) $(7.8) Adj. EBITDA1 $(4.2) $3.6 $(7.8) Ad
Slide 15: Balance Sheet and Cash Flow
Balance Sheet and Cash Flow ($ Millions) FY2023-Q1 FY2022-Q1 B/(W) Cash $5.7 $4.1 $1.6 Debt $(149.1) $(165.3) $16.2 Liquidity1 $84.4 $92.8 $(8.4) Operating Cash Flow $19.9 $(33.1) $53.0 Adj. Free Cash Flow2 $19.6 $(34.1) $53.7 Trade Working Capital* $33.8 $(24.0) $57.8 Positive Free Cash Flow for Q1
Slide 16: Legacy backlog units still impact profitability in FY2023-Q1
Legacy backlog units still impact profitability in FY2023-Q1 by ~$(10)M Status 01/30/23 Production Quarter 5% 28% 27% 50% 64% 60% FY23 Orders to go 74% FY23 Backlog (+25% pricing) 100% 100% FY22 Newer Backlog (11-15% pricing) 61% 72% FY21 Old Backlog (0-5% pricing) 39% 27% 36% 26% 12% 8% 9% 2% FY22-
Slide 17: FY2022-Q1 to FY2023-Q1 Adj. EBITDA Walk
FY2022-Q1 to FY2023-Q1 Adj. EBITDA Walk ($ Millions) 15.0 20.8 Q1 Unit Volume FY2023 – 1,957 FY2022 – 1,149 Delta – 808 -7.8 10.0 3.6 3% of Net 8% of Net Rev. Rev. (2)% of 4.6 0.9 Net Rev. (4.2) (13.3) FY22-Q1 Bus Gross Parts Gross OPEX/Other FY23-Q1 Addback Add FY23 H2 Simulated Adj. EBITDA Profit
Slide 18: Key Success Factors Already in Place for FY2023
Key Success Factors Already in Place for FY2023 Rev. $235 $245 - $260 $255 - $270 $265 - $285 $1,000 - $1,050 $M ✓ Q1 guidance met; Record Revenues and EV sales ~43 Adj. EBITDA 1 ✓ Raising Revenues and EBITDA guidance for FY23 40 - 46 ✓ Fiscal Year almost sold out, with locked higher pricing ~4% ✓ S
Slide 19: FY2023 Guidance Raised: Strong profitability in FY2023-H2
FY2023 Guidance Raised: Strong profitability in FY2023-H2 FY2022 FY2023 FY2023 B/(W) $ Millions Actuals Initial Updated Vs. Prior Year Guidance Guidance ▪ FY23-Q1 with headwinds from old Net Revenue $800 $900 – $1,000 $1,000 - $1,050 $200 - $250 backlog pricing ▪ Improved volumes expected during Q2
Slide 20: Long-term Outlook Driven by EV growth and Lean Transformation
Long-term Outlook Driven by EV growth and Lean Transformation Units Revenues $M Diesel Gas Propane CNG EV Outlook Rev. $M 11,646 12,000 12,000 11,317 11,017 11,000 3,000 10,500 10,000 8,878 9,500 2,500 8,250 2,000 8,000 6,679 6,822 1,750 2,000 6,000 1,500 1,500 1,250 4,000 1,019 879 1,025 1,000 991
Slide 21: Outlook
OUTLOOK Matthew Stevenson President & CEO 21
Slide 22: Positioned for Strong Recovery in FY2023 & Beyond
Positioned for Strong Recovery in FY2023 & Beyond 45,000 NA School Bus Industry Bookings 20%+ = 8,250+ units Class 6-7* 39.6k 40,000 38.7k 36.8k 36.6k 35.8k 36.1k 35,000 33.5k Revenue 25%+ = ~$1 Billion 29.6k 30,000 27.4k 26.4k 25.7k 25,000 Parts Revenue 10%+ = $84+ Million 20,000 ~10% CAGR 15,000 E
Slide 23: Strong Outlook Ahead for Blue Bird / Investment Highlights
Strong Outlook Ahead for Blue Bird / Investment Highlights Countercyclical Strong industry growth ahead with a backdrop of healthy funding and an aging school bus fleet National Commitment Beneficiary of $5B US Government’s commitment to the electrification of school buses The Leader Leading market
Slide 24: Q&A
Q&A 24
Slide 25: Appendix
APPENDIX 25
Slide 26: Adj. EBITDA Reconciliation
Adj. EBITDA Reconciliation Reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted EBITDA 26
Slide 27: Free Cash Flow Reconciliation
Free Cash Flow Reconciliation Reconciliation of Free Cash Flow to Adjusted Free Cash Flow 27
Slide 28: Adjusted EPS Reconciliation
Adjusted EPS Reconciliation Reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted Net Income and of Diluted EPS to Adjusted Diluted EPS 28
Slide 29: End
End 29