Allan Gray-Orbis Global Equity Feeder AMETF · JSE:AGOGE
Allan Gray-Orbis Global Equity Feeder AMETF — Allan Gray — Investor Presentation (May 2021)
32 slides from Allan Gray-Orbis Global Equity Feeder AMETF's investor presentation, May 2021
Slide 1: Allan Gray and Orbis investment update
Allan Gray and Orbis investment update Jacques Plaut Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider. © Allan Gray 2021 1
Slide 2: Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider. © Allan Gray 2021
Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider. © Allan Gray 2021 2
Slide 3: US 10-year government bond yield
US 10-year government bond yield What if… 3.5 3.0 2.5 Percent 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Jul-2018 Jul-2019 Jul-2020 Jan-2018 Apr-2018 Oct-2018 Jan-2019 Apr-2019 Oct-2019 Jan-2020 Apr-2020 Oct-2020 Jan-2021 Apr-2021 Source: Thomson Reuters Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services p
Slide 4: Value of US$100 invested: MSCI World Index
MSCI World Index In US dollars 350 300 Value of US$100 invested 250 200 150 100 50 0 2012 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Thomson Reuters Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider. © Allan Gray 2021 4
Slide 5: US vs everywhere else: performance
US vs everywhere else: performance The typical global stock has only just emerged from a bear market that started in Jan 2018 50% 40% Biggest US stocks 30% 20% Equal-weighted global stocks 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% Jul-2019 Jul-2020 Jul-2018 Jan-2018 Apr-2018 Oct-2018 Jan-2019 Apr-2019 Oct-201
Slide 6: Frothy US market: IPOs and SPACs have accelerated since 2020
Frothy US market: IPOs and SPACs have accelerated since 2020 Total funds raised by initial public offerings^ 200 150 Gross proceeds (USD billions) 100 50 0 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 (YTD) Non-SPAC* proceeds SPAC proceeds Source: 31 Mar 2021 | SPAC Analytics. *SPAC: Spe
Slide 7: Valuations for the most richly priced shares have ballooned
Valuations for the most richly priced shares have ballooned Forward price-earnings ratio for FTSE World Index constituents, median by decile 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Bottom 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th Top Current 10 years ago Source: Capital IQ, Orbis. Each decile represents 10% of the marke
Slide 8: Real yield: 10-year bond yields net of inflation
Real yield 10-year bond yields net of inflation 7% 6% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% Poland Thailand Philippines Turkey Chile Mexico Russia Brazil China Indonesia South Africa Source: Bloomberg Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider. © Allan Gray 2021 8
Slide 9: Net debt per employed person: South Africa is not unique
Net debt per employed person South Africa is not unique 2.5 2.0 Rand million 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 SA US UK Source: Refinitiv Datastream Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services pr
Slide 10: Commodity prices: relative price movements
Commodity prices Relative price movements 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Rhodium Iron Copper Palladium Aluminum Platinum Nickel Gold Coal Brent Crude Closing Lowest Highest Source: Iress, data from 31 December 2019 to 30 April 2021 Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provid
Slide 11: Exchange rates: movement relative to the US$
Exchange rates Movement relative to the US$ Relative exchange rate movement 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 Mar-2020 Jul-2020 Mar-2021 Feb-2020 Feb-2021 Dec-2019 Nov-2020 Dec-2020 Jan-2020 Apr-2020 Jun-2020 Apr-2021 May-2020 Aug-2020 Sep-2020 Oct-2020 Jan-2021 South Africa China Philippines Poland Russia
Slide 12: Real US$/ZAR
Real US$/ZAR 25 20 US$/ZAR deflated by CPI 15 10 5 - 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Iress Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider. © Allan Gray 2021 12
Slide 13: Value of US$100 invested: FTSE/JSE All Share Index
FTSE/JSE All Share Index In US dollars 5 years Annualised return 3.7% 10 years 2.3% 900 20 years 10.7% 800 Value of US$100 invested 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2015 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Iress Allan Gray Propriet
Slide 14: 10-year US$ performance
10-year US$ performance Cumulative return Liberty Holdings Growthpoint Truworths Nedbank Redefine Shoprite Remgro Netcare Telkom Hyprop Omnia Tigers Sappi Sasol MTN PPC 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% -80% -90% -100% Source: Bloomberg, Iress Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised fina
Slide 15: Sector performance: contribution to Capped SWIX
Sector performance Contribution to Capped SWIX 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Capped Global Precious Global Local Small Local Retail Others Insurance Property Banks SWIX Industrials Metals Miners Miners Caps Industrials Source: Iress, data from 31 December 2019 to 30 April 2021 Allan Gray Pr
Slide 16: South African banks: total return from start of 2020
South African banks Total return from the start of 2020 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% Nedbank Standard Bank FirstRand Absa Investec Ltd Capitec Bank Source: Bloomberg, data from 31 December 2019 to 30 April 2021 Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider. © Alla
Slide 17: South African banks: share price performance
South African banks Share price performance 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Feb-2020 Mar-2020 Feb-2021 Mar-2021 Jul-2020 Dec-2019 Aug-2020 Sep-2020 Nov-2020 Dec-2020 Apr-2021 Jan-2020 Apr-2020 May-2020 Jun-2020 Oct-2020 Jan-2021 Absa FirstRand Nedbank Standard Bank Capitec Source: Iress Allan Gray Proprietary
Slide 18: Global industrials: total return from start of 2020
Global industrials Total return from the start of 2020 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Mediclinic Bid Corp AB InBev British Sappi Mondi Aspen Richemont Naspers Prosus N.V American Tobacco Source: Bloomberg, data from 31 December 2019 to 30 April 2021 Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an au
Slide 19: Global miners: total return from start of 2020
Global miners Total return from the start of 2020 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Anglo American BHP Glencore Source: Bloomberg, data from 31 December 2019 to 30 April 2021 Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider. © Allan Gray 2021 19
Slide 20: Precious metal miners: total return from start of 2020
Precious metal miners Total return from the start of 2020 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% Anglogold Harmony Gold Fields Anglo Pan African Sibanye Northam Impala DRDGOLD Royal American Resources Bafokeng Platinum Platinum Source: Bloomberg, data from 31 December 2019 to 30 April 2021 Alla
Slide 21: Precious metal miners: share price performance
Precious metal miners Share price performance 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Feb-2020 Feb-2021 May-2020 Aug-2020 Sep-2020 Mar-2020 Mar-2021 Jul-2020 Dec-2019 Nov-2020 Dec-2020 Jan-2020 Apr-2020 Jun-2020 Oct-2020 Jan-2021 Apr-2021 Anglo American Platinum Anglogold Ashanti DRDGOLD Gold Fields Ha
Slide 22: Local industrials: total return from start of 2020
Local industrials Total return from the start of 2020 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% -100% Imperial Distell MultiChoice Vodacom MTN KAP Arcelormittal City Lodge Hotels Blue Label Telecoms Netcare Tiger Brands Super Group AECI Italtile Brait Sun International Astral Foods Famous Brands AVI
Slide 23: Property: total return from start of 2020
Property Total return from the start of 2020 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% Hyprop NEPI Equites Fortress B Growthpoint Resilient Fortress A Sirius Redefine Stenprop Hammerson Source: Bloomberg, data from 31 December 2019 to 30 April 2021 Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial serv
Slide 24: Performance: annualised return
Performance 40 35 Annualised return (%) 30 25 20 15 10 5.6 6.7 5.4 6.7 5.2 5 3.4 0 1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years Allan Gray Stable Fund Stable Fund Benchmark Balanced Fund Balanced Fund Benchmark Allan Gray Equity Fund Equity Fund Benchmark Source: Allan Gray research Allan Gray Proprietary Limite
Slide 25: Top 10 local equity holdings as at 30 April 2021
Top 10 local equity holdings as at 30 April 2021 Allan Gray Equity Fund % of Fund Allan Gray Balanced Fund % of Fund Allan Gray Stable Fund % of Fund Naspers 8.6 Naspers 6.8 Naspers 3.0 British American Tobacco 4.9 British American Tobacco 5.2 Glencore 2.6 Glencore 4.2 Glencore 4.1 British American
Slide 26: Asset allocation as at 30 April 2021: Balanced Fund
Asset allocation as at 30 April 2021 Allan Gray Balanced Fund % of Portfolio Africa Foreign Asset class Total Local ex-SA ex-Africa Net equity 71.3 51.1 3.1 17.1 Hedged equity 6.8 1.7 0.0 5.1 Property 1.2 1.0 0.0 0.2 Commodity-linked 3.5 2.8 0.0 0.7 Bonds 12.3 8.8 1.4 2.1 Money market and 4.9 2.5 0.
Slide 27: Asset allocation as at 30 April 2021: Stable Fund
Asset allocation as at 30 April 2021 Allan Gray Stable Fund % of Portfolio Africa Foreign Asset class Total Local ex-SA ex-Africa Net equity 35.6 22.5 2.8 10.2 Hedged equity 15.6 5.8 0.0 9.7 Property 2.4 2.2 0.0 0.1 Commodity-linked 3.7 2.8 0.0 0.9 Bonds 33.7 26.3 3.0 4.5 Money market and 9.1 4.7 0.
Slide 28: One-year review: Allan Gray Balanced Fund
One-year review Allan Gray Balanced Fund Expected return 1-year return Cash 6% 5% 18% of Fund Low volatility Expected return: 7% USD cash* 1% 0% Inflation-linked bonds 9% 13% Platinum & gold metals 10% 7% 16% of Fund Moderate volatility Expected return: 8% Africa and USD bonds 12% 24% SA hedged equi
Slide 29: Thank you
Thank you Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider. © Allan Gray 2021 29
Slide 30: Copyright
Copyright © 2021 Allan Gray Proprietary Limited. All rights reserved. The content and information may not be reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Allan Gray Proprietary Limited (Allan Gray). Information and content The information and content of this publication/presentatio
Slide 31: Benchmarks
Benchmarks FTSE/JSE All Share Index and FTSE/JSE All Bond Index The FTSE/JSE All Share Index and FTSE/JSE All Bond Index (the FTSE/JSE Indices) are calculated by FTSE International Limited (‘FTSE’) in conjunction with the JSE Limited (‘JSE’) in accordance with standard criteria. The FTSE/JSE Indices
Slide 32: Important information
Important information Understanding the funds Investors must make sure that they understand the nature of their choice of funds and that their investment objectives are aligned with those of the Fund/s they select. The Allan Gray Equity, Balanced, Stable and rand-denominated offshore funds may inves