BP plc · LSE:BP.
BP — Investor Presentation (2020)
32 slides from BP's investor presentation, 2020
Slide 1: Spencer Dale, Group chief economist
Spencer Dale Group chief economist
Slide 2: Three scenarios to explore the energy transition
Three scenarios to explore the energy transition CO2 emissions from energy use Gt of CO2 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 Rapid 10000 5000 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 © BP p.l.c. 2020 Energy Outlook | bp week: September
Slide 3: Three scenarios to explore the energy transition
Three scenarios to explore the energy transition CO2 emissions from energy use Gt of CO2 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 Well Rapid below 15000 Net Zero 2°C 10000 Business-as-usual IPCC 2°C Median 1.5° C 5000 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 © BP p.l.c. 2020
Slide 4: Key questions
Key questions 1. What DO we know? 2. How has Covid-19 affected the outlook? 3. How might oil demand be affected by the mobility revolution? 4. What role could natural gas play in the energy transition? 5. Just how quickly will renewables grow over time? 6. How will electricity and power markets shap
Slide 5: Changing structure of global energy demand
Changing structure of global energy demand Fossil fuels Renewable Electricity s Shares of primary Shares of primary Share of total final energy 100% energy 100% consumption 60% 90% 90% 50% 80% 80% 70% 70% 40% 60% 60% 50% 50% 30% 40% 40% Rapid 20% 30% 30% Net zero 20% 20% Business- 10% 10% as-usual 1
Slide 6: Changing structure of global energy system
Changing structure of global energy system Shares of primary energy in Rapid 100% Oil 80% Coal Natural gas 60% Other non- fossil fuels 40% Renewables 20% 0% 1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 © BP p.l.c. 2020 Energy Outlook | bp week: September
Slide 7: Key questions
Key questions 1. What DO we know? 2. How has Covid-19 affected the outlook? 3. How might oil demand be affected by the mobility revolution? 4. What role could natural gas play in the energy transition? 5. Just how quickly will renewables grow over time? 6. How will electricity and power markets shap
Slide 8: Impact of Covid-19 in Rapid
Impact of Covid-19 in Rapid Alt case: Greater impact from Covid- 19 % change as a result of Covid- 19 0% GDP -2% Primary energy -4% Oil demand -6% -8% -10% -12% 2025 2050 2025 2050 © BP p.l.c. 2020 Energy Outlook | bp week: September
Slide 9: Impact of Covid-19 in Rapid
Impact of Covid-19 in Rapid Alt case: Greater impact from Covid- 19 % change as a result of Covid- 19 0% GDP -2% Primary energy -4% Oil demand -6% -8% -10% -12% 2025 2050 2025 2050 © BP p.l.c. 2020 Energy Outlook | bp week: September
Slide 10: Key questions
Key questions 1. What DO we know? 2. How has Covid-19 affected the outlook? 3. How might oil demand be affected by the mobility revolution? 4. What role could natural gas play in the energy transition? 5. Just how quickly will renewables grow over time? 6. How will electricity and power markets shap
Slide 11: Outlook for oil demand
Outlook for oil demand Oil consumption Change in oil demand, 2018-2050 Mb/d Mb/d 120 10 0 100 Non- -10 transport 80 -20 Other transport -30 Other 60 road -40 Passenger 40 Rapid -50 cars Net Zero -60 20 Business -as-usual -70 0 -80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Rapid Net Zero Business- as-usual © BP
Slide 12: Mobility revolution: electrification, shared-mobility and autonomy
Mobility revolution: electrification, shared-mobility and autonomy Share of car and truck VKM Robotaxi share of passenger car VKM electrified* powered by electricity 100% 60% Rapid Net Zero 50% 75% 40% 50% 30% 20% 25% 10% 0% 0% 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 *i
Slide 13: Key questions
Key questions 1. What DO we know? 2. How has Covid-19 affected the outlook? 3. How might oil demand be affected by the mobility revolution? 4. What role could natural gas play in the energy transition? 5. Just how quickly will renewables grow over time? 6. How will electricity and power markets shap
Slide 14: Outlook for natural gas
Outlook for natural gas Natural gas consumption Bcm 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 Rapid 1000 Net Zero 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 © BP p.l.c. 2020 Energy Outlook | bp week: September
Slide 15: Supporting role of natural gas
Supporting role of natural gas Rapid vs. Business-as-usual: India and Other Asia Differences in shares of primary 40% energy Non-fossil Oil 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 © BP p.l.c. 2020 Energy Outlook | bp week: September
Slide 16: Supporting role of natural gas
Supporting role of natural gas Rapid vs. Business-as-usual: India and Other Asia Differences in shares of primary 40% energy Non-fossil Oil Coal Natural gas 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 © BP p.l.c. 2020 Energy Outlook | bp week: September
Slide 17: Natural gas as a source of near-zero carbon energy
Natural gas as a source of near-zero carbon energy Share of natural gas abated and unabated Natural gas with CCUS as a share of primary energy Business-as- Rapid Net Zero usual 10% Net Zero 100% Blue Unabated Rapid hydrogen Abated 8% 80% Direct energy use 6% 60% 40% 4% 20% 2% Business-as- usual 0% 0
Slide 18: Key questions
Key questions 1. What DO we know? 2. How has Covid-19 affected the outlook? 3. How might oil demand be affected by the mobility revolution? 4. What role could natural gas play in the energy transition? 5. Just how quickly will renewables grow over time? 6. How will electricity and power markets shap
Slide 19: Renewable energy in power
Renewable energy in power Renewable energy used in power sector Cost of wind and solar energy EJ 100% = 2018 price 400 100% Net Zero Geotherma 350 l& biomass 80% 300 Rapid Solar Wind 250 60% Wind 200 Business-as- usual 150 40% Solar 100 20% Rapid 50 Net Zero 0 0% 2018 2050 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2
Slide 20: Wind and solar capacity
Wind and solar capacity Average annual increase in wind and solar Average annual investment in wind and capacity solar GW Five-year rolling average, 2018 US$ 1000 1200 Billion Rapid 800 1000 Net Zero Business 800 600 -as-usual 600 400 400 200 200 0 0 2015 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 © BP p.l.
Slide 21: Key questions
Key questions 1. What DO we know? 2. How has Covid-19 affected the outlook? 3. How might oil demand be affected by the mobility revolution? 4. What role could natural gas play in the energy transition? 5. Just how quickly will renewables grow over time? 6. How will electricity and power markets shap
Slide 22: Electricity demand
Electricity demand Share of electricity in total final consumption Change in electricity demand by sector, 2018- 2050 TWh 60% 25000 50% Rapid 20000 Build Net Zero ings 40% Business Indu -as-usual 15000 stry 30% 10000 20% 5000 10% 0% 0 Rapid Net Zero Business- 000 002 004 006 008 010 012 014 016 018
Slide 23: Global power generation
Global power generation Share of global power generation by energy source Rapid Net Zero Business-as- 70% usual Wind & solar 60% Coal Natural gas 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 © BP p.l.c. 2020 Energy Outlook | bp week
Slide 24: Technologies to help balance the power sector
Technologies to help balance the power sector © BP p.l.c. 2020 Energy Outlook | bp week: September
Slide 25: Key questions
Key questions 1. What DO we know? 2. How has Covid-19 affected the outlook? 3. How might oil demand be affected by the mobility revolution? 4. What role could natural gas play in the energy transition? 5. Just how quickly will renewables grow over time? 6. How will electricity and power markets shap
Slide 26: Consumption and production of hydrogen
Consumption and production of hydrogen Hydrogen use by sector Hydrogen production by type EJ EJ 70 70 Rapid Net Zero Rapid Net Zero Grey Power 60 60 Hydrogen Transport Blue 50 Buildings 50 Hydrogen Industry Green 40 40 Hydrogen 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 2035 2050 2035 2050 2035 2050 2035 2050 © BP p.l.c
Slide 27: Wind and solar capacity
Wind and solar capacity Annual average increase in wind and solar capacity GW 1400 1200 Rapid Business-as- 1000 usual Net Zero 800 600 400 200 0 2000 - 2005 - 2010 - 2015 - 2018 - 2025 - 2030 - 2035 - 2040 - 2045 - 2005 2010 2015 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 © BP p.l.c. 2020 Energy Outlook | b
Slide 28: Wind and solar capacity
Wind and solar capacity Annual average increase in wind and solar capacity GW 1400 Rapid 1200 Business-as- usual 1000 Net Zero Net Zero with 800 100% green hydrogen 600 400 200 0 2000 - 2005 - 2010 - 2015 - 2018 - 2025 - 2030 - 2035 - 2040 - 2045 - 2005 2010 2015 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 ©
Slide 29: Bioenergy in Rapid and Net Zero
Bioenergy in Rapid and Net Zero Shares of primary energy 10% Rapid Net Zero Biomethane 8% Biomass Biofuels Hydrogen 6% Power Buildings Industry 4% 2% 0% By sector By type By sector By type © BP p.l.c. 2020 Energy Outlook | bp week: September
Slide 30: Key questions
Key questions 1. What DO we know? 2. How has Covid-19 affected the outlook? 3. How might oil demand be affected by the mobility revolution? 4. What role could natural gas play in the energy transition? 5. Just how quickly will renewables grow over time? 6. How will electricity and power markets shap
Slide 31: Delayed and Disorderly scenario
Delayed and Disorderly scenario Carbon emissions Primary energy consumption Gt of CO2 EJ 40 800 700 30 600 500 20 400 300 10 Rapid 200 Rapid Delayed and Disorderly (before Business-as-usual 100 rationing) Delayed and Disorderly Delayed and Disorderly 0 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Slide 32: Spencer Dale, Group chief economist
Spencer Dale Group chief economist