BP plc · LSE:BP.
BP — Investor Presentation (July 2008)
31 slides from BP's investor presentation, Jul 10, 2008
Slide 1: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2008
BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2008 July 10, 2008 © BP 2008
Slide 2: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2008
BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2008 Christof Rühl Chief Economist July 10, 2008 © BP 2008
Slide 3: Outline
Outline Introduction High Energy Prices The Oil Market Other Fuels Conclusion BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 © BP 2008
Slide 4: Energy Consumption and Energy Prices
Energy Consumption and Energy Prices Oil Gas Coal y-o-y $/bbl $/Mmbtu $/t 8% 110 11 110 7% 100 10 100 6% 90 9 90 5% 80 8 80 4% 70 7 70 3% 60 6 60 2% 50 5 50 1% 40 4 40 0% 30 3 30 -1% 20 2 20 -2% 10 1 10 -3% 0 0 0 98 00 02 04 06 08 98 00 02 04 06 08 98 00 02 04 06 08 BP Statistical Review of World En
Slide 5: Real Commodity Prices
Real Commodity Prices Index: average 1970-2007 = 100 Oil Wheat Iron & Steel 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 © BP 2008
Slide 6: GDP and Primary Energy Growth
GDP and Primary Energy Growth 1970s 2000s Growth 7% Primary energy GDP (PPP) 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1967 1969 1971 1973 2001 2003 2005 2007 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 © BP 2008
Slide 7: Contributions to Growth
Contributions to Growth GDP Primary energy 5-year moving average 4% OECD Non-OECD OECD Non-OECD 3% 2% 1% 0% 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 © BP 2008
Slide 8: Energy Growth Relative to GDP Growth
Energy Growth Relative to GDP Growth OECD Non-OECD Ratio of energy : GDP growth 1.0 0.8 0.6 10-year average 0.4 0.2 0.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 -0.2 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 © BP 2008
Slide 9: Real and Nominal Crude Oil Price
Real and Nominal Crude Oil Price $/bbl Nominal price Real price 140 $ 142.66 per barrel in July 2008 120 $ 104.91 per barrel in December 1979 100 80 60 40 20 0 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 © BP 2008
Slide 10: US Gasoline Consumption Growth
US Gasoline Consumption Growth Kb/d $/gallon 150 4.00 100 3.75 Pump price 50 3.50 0 3.25 -50 3.00 -100 2.75 -150 2.50 -200 2.25 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Source: EIA BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 © BP 2008
Slide 11: Global Oil Consumption Growth
Global Oil Consumption Growth Exporters and importers Taxes and subsidies Kb/d 1000 10-year average 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 Oil Non-OECD OECD oil Heavy Moderate Moderate Heavy exporters oil importers subsidies subsidies taxes taxes importers BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 © BP 2
Slide 12: OECD Commercial Inventories
OECD Commercial Inventories Mbbls $/bbl 2002-2006 range Stocks in 2007 Brent oil price (rhs) 2800 100 2700 90 2600 80 2500 70 2400 60 2300 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Sources: IEA, Platts BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 © BP 2008
Slide 13: World Oil Production Changes
World Oil Production Changes Average annual change, 2003-2007 Change 2007 Mb/d Mb/d 2.0 2.0 ROW 1.5 1.5 FSU 1.0 Other 1.0 ROW OPEC FSU 0.5 OPEC- 0.5 10 Other OPEC 0.0 0.0 OECD OECD -0.5 -0.5 OPEC- 10 -1.0 -1.0 -1.5 -1.5 Growth Decline Growth Decline BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 © BP 20
Slide 14: 2007 Oil Production: Largest Changes
2007 Oil Production: Largest Changes Decrease Increase Kb/d -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 Angola Non-OPEC Azerbaijan FSU Russia OPEC Iraq Sudan Canada Nigeria Venezuela Mexico Norway Saudi Arabia BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 © BP 2008
Slide 15: Russian Oil Production
Russian Oil Production y-o-y growth Mb/d 12% 10.0 10% 9.8 8% 6% 9.6 4% 9.4 2% 0% 9.2 2001 2003 2005 2007 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Russian Ministry of Industry and Energy BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 © BP 2008
Slide 16: 2007 Refining Capacity Additions
2007 Refining Capacity Additions Kb/d 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Asia Pacific ex China China Africa Middle East Europe & Eurasia S. & Cent. America N.America World 2007 World Av. 2002-2005 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 © BP 2008
Slide 17: Financial Investment in Energy
Financial Investment in Energy Energy prices Non-commercial net length Open interest $/boe ‘000 contracts Million contracts 180 150 3.0 WTI Heating Oil 75 2.5 150 Henry Hub 0 2.0 120 -75 1.5 90 -150 1.0 60 -225 0.5 30 -300 0.0 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Sources: C
Slide 18: 2007 Natural Gas: Largest Changes
2007 Natural Gas: Largest Changes Production Consumption Billion m3 Billion m3 -10 0 10 20 30 40 -10 0 10 20 30 40 US US China China Qatar Russia Nigeria Turkmenistan Japan Azerbaijan Turkey Russia Chile Canada Germany UK BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 © BP 2008
Slide 19: 2007 LNG Market Diversification
2007 LNG Market Diversification Number of export markets Number of suppliers 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Algeria Japan Trinidad South Korea Egypt Taiwan Nigeria Spain Qatar India Oman US Australia France Malaysia Turkey UAE UK Eq. Guinea China Indonesia Mexico Atlantic Basin Norway Belgium Middl
Slide 20: Fuel Switching in Power Generation 2005-07
Fuel Switching in Power Generation 2005-07 Gas Share UK gas vs. coal US gas vs. oil 70% 100% 60% 95% 50% 90% 40% 85% 30% 80% Gas is Gas is Gas is not competitive Gas is not competitive competitive competitive 20% 75% -60 -40 -20 0 20 -6 -3 0 3 6 Gas competitiveness vs. coal (€/MWh) Gas competitivene
Slide 21: 2007 Coal Production and Consumption
2007 Coal Production and Consumption Production Consumption Asia Pacific North America Asia Pacific North America 20% 19% S & Cent. S & Cent. America 1% America 2% 59% 14% Europe 17% 60% Europe & Eurasia & Eurasia 5% 3% Africa Africa BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 © BP 2008
Slide 22: Coal Production Outside China
Coal Production Outside China Biggest coal producers Largest production growth, 1998-2007 Mtoe Mtoe 600 80 12.3% Average annual growth 70 3.8% 500 60 3.7% 400 50 40 3.1% 300 30 2% 8.3% 200 20 100 10 0 0 US tralia India frica ssia esia e sia tralia India ssia frica bia u s h A Ru don d on Aus Ru th A
Slide 23: GDP and Power Generation
GDP and Power Generation Growth in China, 2003-2007 Global breakdown Average growth p.a. Share 20% 100% GDP Power Primary energy Coal 16% 80% OECD 12% 60% 8% 40% Other non- OECD 4% 20% India China 0% 0% GDP Power Coal BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 © BP 2008
Slide 24: Power Generation and Primary Energy
Power Generation and Primary Energy Power generation 2007 global growth Average growth p.a. 7% 7% OECD Non-OECD 10-year average 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1991-2000 2001-2007 Power Primary GDP Generation Energy BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 © BP 2008
Slide 25: 2007 Carbon Emissions Growth
2007 Carbon Emissions Growth y-o-y growth 10-year average 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% World Europe FSU North Middle S. & Africa Asia America East Cent. Pacific America BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 © BP 2008
Slide 26: Global Oil Reserves
Global Oil Reserves Billion bbls 1600 Middle East S. & Cent. America Europe & Eurasia Africa North America Asia Pacific Other oil sands 1200 800 400 0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 © BP 2008
Slide 27: Changes in Nuclear and Hydroelectric Output
Changes in Nuclear and Hydroelectric Output Nuclear Hydro y-o-y growth 6% 5% 4% 3% 10-year average 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2004 2005 2006 2007 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 © BP 2008
Slide 28: Renewables
Renewables Electricity generation in Germany Volume of ethanol in US gasoline TWh Share Kb/d 70 5% 500 Hydro Other renewables Share (lhs) 60 4% 400 50 Ethanol consumption (rhs) 3% 300 40 30 2% 200 20 1% 100 10 0 0% 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2001 2003 2005 2007 Sources: BDEW, EIA BP Statistical Review of
Slide 29: Conclusion
Conclusion High economic growth and improvements in energy intensity Importance of developing world Oil market constrained, gas market integrating, global coal market emerging Prices are effective, where allowed to work BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 © BP 2008
Slide 30: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2008 Q&A
BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2008 Q&A © BP 2008
Slide 31: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2008
BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2008 July 10, 2008 © BP 2008