National Fuel Gas Company · NYSE:NFG
National Fuel Gas — Q2 FY2025 Earnings Presentation
57 slides from National Fuel Gas's earnings presentation, Apr 30, 2025
Slide 1: Investor Presentation Fiscal 2025 – 2nd Quarter Update
Investor Presentation Fiscal 2025 – 2nd Quarter Update April 30, 2025 Exhibit 99
Slide 2: National Fuel Gas Company agenda
National Fuel Gas Company Company Overview (3) Why National Fuel? (8) Financial Overview (13) Business Highlights (17) Supplemental Information Segment Information (24) Guidance & Other Financial Information (46)
Slide 3: Company Overview
Company Overview Left picture: Seneca Resources rig in Tioga County, PA. Right picture: Buffalo Bills’ New Highmark Stadium construction in Orchard Park, NY. Corporate HQ: Buffalo, NY ~2,300 employees NYSE: NFG Market Cap: ~$7.1B 122 Years of consecutive dividend payments 54 Years of consecutive div
Slide 4: History of National Fuel
History of National Fuel Industry Pioneer Born From Rockefeller’s Standard Oil Company
Slide 5: NFG: A Diversified, Integrated Natural Gas Company
NFG: A Diversified, Integrated Natural Gas Company (1) Twelve months ended March 31, 2025. A reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to Net Income as presented on the Consolidated Statement of Income and Earnings Reinvested in the Business is included at the end of this presentation. (2) Average net produ
Slide 6: Non-Regulated Business Overview
Non-Regulated Business Overview Exploration & Production Segment (Upstream) Gathering Segment (Midstream) Seneca Resources Company Total Net Acres (Pennsylvania): ~1.2 million(1) Total Proved Reserves: 4.8 Tcfe(1) Current Net Production: ~1.2 Bcf/d(2) Firm Transportation Capacity: ~1 Bcf/d to premiu
Slide 7: Regulated Business Overview
Regulated Business Overview Pipeline & Storage Segment (Midstream) Utility Segment (Downstream) Regulated by Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Total Rate Base: $1.6 Billion(1) ~2,600 miles of pipeline / 29 storage fields(2) National Fuel Gas Supply Corporation: Firm Contracted Storage Capa
Slide 8: Why National Fuel?
Why National Fuel? Optimized capital allocation Lower cost of capital Operational synergies Improved profitability Targeting significant rate base growth from system modernization and expansion High-graded upstream development driving capital efficiencies Responsibly Reduce Emissions Continued progr
Slide 9: Integrated Model Drives Strong Returns
Integrated Model Drives Strong Returns Source: Bloomberg for the TTM ending September 30th. NFG adjusted excludes after-tax non-cash ceiling test impairments. NFG Outperformance Since 2017 NFG vs. S&P 500: +2% NFG vs. E&P Peers: +6% NFG vs. Utility Peers: +5% NFG’s ROCE Outperforms Peers and Broader
Slide 10: Strong Value Proposition Driven by Earnings & Cash Flow Outlook
(1) NYMEX based on flat price assumptions per year. Includes current hedge positions as of March 31, 2025 and excludes acquisitions. Note: The Company defines free cash flow as net cash provided by operating activities, less net cash used in investing activities, adjusted for acquisitions and divest
Slide 11: Proven Track Record of Returning Capital to Shareholders
Proven Track Record of Returning Capital to Shareholders 54 Years Consecutive Dividend Increases 122 Years Consecutive Payments $2.06 per share $0.19 per share Stable, Growing Dividend … …Plus Share Buyback $200 MM Share Repurchase Program approved in March 2024 Target completion date by end of cale
Slide 12: Considerable Progress on Emissions Reductions
Considerable Progress on Emissions Reductions All emissions reduction targets based on 2020 baseline. Measured using calendar 2023 emissions data, as reported in Company’s 2023 Corporate Responsibility Report. Continued Progress On Our Methane Intensity Targets(1) Responsible gas certifications Pneu
Slide 13: Financial Overview
Financial Overview G) National Fuel’
Slide 14: Q2 Continues Momentum Propelling Higher Earnings Guidance
Q2 Continues Momentum Propelling Higher Earnings Guidance Continued Growth Supports Consolidated 3-Year Adj. EPS CAGR >10% (FY24-27E) Adjusted Operating Results(1) ($ per share) Excludes items impacting comparability. Consolidated Adjusted Operating Results includes Corporate & All Other. See Compar
Slide 15: Capital Allocation Priorities Drive Spending Levels
Capital Allocation Priorities Drive Spending Levels (2) Capital expenditures include accrued capex. Total Capital Expenditures include Corporate and All Other. A reconciliation to Capital Expenditures as presented on the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows is included at the end of this presentatio
Slide 16: Balance Sheet Resiliency Through the Commodity Cycle
Balance Sheet Resiliency Through the Commodity Cycle Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA(1) Net Debt is net of cash and temporary cash investments. Reconciliations of Net Debt and Adjusted EBITDA are included at the end of this presentation. A reconciliation of Funds From Operations (FFO) to Net Cash Provide
Slide 17: Business Highlights
G) National Fuel’ Business Highlights
Slide 18: Regulated: Successful Rate Case Activity
(1) See Case 23-G-0627 on file with the NY PSC. (2) DSIC tracker allows recovery on incremental system investments after July 31, 2024, subject to attaining rate year plant balance of $781.3 million and earning below a statewide ROE target (currently 10.15%). Regulated: Successful Rate Case Activity
Slide 19: Non-Regulated: Development Creates Differentiated Value
Non-Regulated: Development Creates Differentiated Value EDA development plan drives higher capital efficiencies and cash flow generation EDA wells deliver >2x the well productivity versus legacy WDA program(1) Well and facility design optimization driving enhanced EDA Utica well performance Recent U
Slide 20: Non-Regulated: Focused on Capital Efficiency & FCF Generation
Non-Regulated: Focused on Capital Efficiency & FCF Generation FY23 is based on actual data. FY24 to FY26 data is projected until 12 months after the last pad has been online. Well data tied to FY based on first production off of pad and includes any marketing or operational curtailments. A reconcili
Slide 21: Non-Regulated: Well Productivity Improvements Lowering Breakevens
Non-Regulated: Well Productivity Improvements Lowering Breakevens Gen 3 design implemented in FY2025 primarily uses 1,800 ft. inter-well spacing, 2,200 lbs. per ft. of proppant intensity, and 150 ft. stage spacing. Assumes an average of 25 to 30 wells brought online/year, which is equivalent to curr
Slide 22: NFG is Uniquely Positioned for AI/Data Center Opportunities
NFG is Uniquely Positioned for AI/Data Center Opportunities NFG’s vertically integrated natural gas infrastructure in the low-cost Appalachian Basin is uniquely positioned to meet rising gas-fired power generation demand Actively pursuing development opportunities that span multiple potential pathwa
Slide 23: Supplemental Information
Supplemental Information G) National Fuel’
Slide 24: Exploration & Production & Gathering Overview
Exploration & Production & Gathering Overview Seneca Resources Company, LLC National Fuel Gas Midstream Company, LLC Supplemental Information: Segment Overview
Slide 25: Long Runway of Development Opportunities in the EDA
Long Runway of Development Opportunities in the EDA Utica Development >10 years of inventory with an expected PV-10% breakeven price of less than $2.00/Mmbtu NYMEX Tioga County, PA Low-risk development locations: ~200 Utica, ~70 Marcellus Utica average total lateral length (TLL) of ~13k feet (~$1,25
Slide 26: High Quality Acreage in WDA, Primarily Owned in Fee
High Quality Acreage in WDA, Primarily Owned in Fee ~10 years of fully delineated inventory in the Utica and Marcellus plus significant additional future development potential with expected PV-10% breakeven price of less than $2.25/MMbtu NYMEX Large gathering system with multiple interconnects provi
Slide 27: E&P and Gathering Production Supported by Long-Term Contracts
E&P and Gathering Production Supported by Long-Term Contracts ~1 Bcf/d of Firm Transportation(1) Gulf Coast Capacity 50 MDth/d (WDA) Firm Sales Portfolio Gross Volumes MDth/d FY 2025 to 2026 NE Supply Diversification (TGP) 50 MDth/d (Canada-Dawn) (EDA-Tioga) Niagara Expansion (TGP & NFG - Supply) Ca
Slide 28: Fiscal 2025 Sales Mix Provides Near-Term Price Certainty
Fiscal 2025 Sales Mix Provides Near-Term Price Certainty E&P and Gathering ($0.95) ($0.99) ($0.77) ($0.76) $2.58 $2.52 Firm Sales & Production Cadence(1) 98 Bcfe Q3 Volumes: Fixed Price 21 Bcfe, NYMEX-Linked 68 Bcfe, Index 5 Bcfe. Q4 Volumes: Fixed Price 20 Bcfe, NYMEX-Linked 69 Bcfe, Index 5 Bcfe.
Slide 29: Hedging Program: Disciplined with Upside Potential
Hedging Program: Disciplined with Upside Potential E&P and Gathering FY25 estimated hedge percentage shown for the remaining 6 months and assumes ~420 Bcf of production per year with the remaining years at low-to-mid single digit growth. Methodical Approach to Layering in Hedges Over Time Supports I
Slide 30: Integration Drives Industry Leading Cost Structure
Integration Drives Industry Leading Cost Structure Seneca Cash OpEx ($/Mcfe) G&A estimate represents the midpoint of the G&A guidance ranges for fiscal 2025. The total of the two LOE components represents the midpoint of the LOE guidance ranges for fiscal 2025. (2) E&P and Gathering (2) Seneca + Gat
Slide 31: Industry-Leading Focus on Sustainability
Industry-Leading Focus on Sustainability E&P and Gathering Responsible Gas Certifications, Emissions Reductions & Biodiversity Equitable Origin – EO100TM Standard for Responsible Energy Development Certification (100% of natural gas production recertified in December 2024) Certification focuses on t
Slide 32: Pipeline & Storage Overview
Pipeline & Storage Overview National Fuel Gas Supply Corporation Empire Pipeline, Inc. Supplemental Information: Segment Overview
Slide 33: Pipeline & Storage Segment Overview
Pipeline & Storage Segment Overview Firm transportation includes short-term and long-term and is disclosed annually as of September 30, 2024. Reported as of March 31, 2025. Empire Pipeline, Inc. National Fuel Gas Supply Corporation Empire Pipeline Supply Corp. Contracted Capacity(1): Firm Transporta
Slide 34: Pipeline & Storage Customer Mix
Pipeline & Storage Customer Mix Firm Transport Customer Transportation by Shipper Type(1) Affiliated Customer Mix (Contracted Capacity) Disclosed annually as of 9/30/2024. Pipeline & Storage
Slide 35: Pipeline Modernization & Expansion Projects Propel Growth
Pipeline Modernization & Expansion Projects Propel Growth A reconciliation to Capital Expenditures as presented on the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows is included at the end of this presentation. FY25E capex is presented at mid-point of guidance. Capex Investments Support Long-Term Rate Base Gr
Slide 36: Tioga Pathway Project Creates Organic Growth
Tioga Pathway Project Creates Organic Growth Capacity: 190,000 Dth/day Estimated capital cost: ~$100 million A portion of the capital to be allocated to modernization facilities Estimated annual revenue: ~$15 million (underpinned by 15-year agreement with Seneca) Modernization component of capital i
Slide 37: Continued Expansion Opportunities for Supply Corp.
Continued Expansion Opportunities for Supply Corp. Line N System Pipeline & Storage Additional Line N Expansion Opportunities Line N corridor is well positioned to serve growing power demand from AI and data centers Significant data centers exist today, plus more expected in the future Proximate to
Slide 38: Utility Overview
Utility Overview National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation Supplemental Information: Segment Overview
Slide 39: New York & Pennsylvania Service Territories
New York & Pennsylvania Service Territories New York Last Rate Case: Joint Proposal approved December 19, 2024 (3-year rate plan effective Oct. 1, 2024 through Sept. 30, 2027) Total Customers(1): ~541,000 Allowed ROE: 9.7% (NYPSC Case 23-G-0627) Rate Mechanisms: Revenue Decoupling Weather Normalizat
Slide 40: NY Utility Rate Case Supports Growing Earnings Outlook
NY Utility Rate Case Supports Growing Earnings Outlook Three-Year Rate Settlement Approved on December 19th, 2024 Joint Proposal approved(1) on December 19, 2024: 3-year rate settlement (fiscal 2025 – 2027) with no significant modifications to the Joint Proposal filed in September New rates implemen
Slide 41: NY Regulatory Environment Continues to Prioritize Safe, Reliable Service
First utility in the state to submit a LTP (Long-Term Plan) NYPSC implemented NFG’s LTP with modifications in December 2023 Includes an “All-of-the-Above Pathway” for an affordable and practical way to meet the State’s climate goals LTP includes Hybrid Heating, Demand Response, and RNG pilot proposa
Slide 42: Customer Affordability
Customer Affordability New York Pennsylvania Based on 2024 average monthly residential bill data posted on company websites required by the NYPSC. Peer 8 is based on 2023 due to unavailable data for 2024. Based on analysis of 2025 PAPUC Annual Rate Comparison Report, which includes data for average
Slide 43: Utility Continues its Significant Investments in Safety
Utility Continues its Significant Investments in Safety (1) A reconciliation to Capital Expenditures as presented on the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows is included at the end of this presentation. Increase from FY23 to FY24 is partially due to the impact of New York State’s Roadway Excavation
Slide 44: Long-Standing Pipeline Replacement & Modernization
Long-Standing Pipeline Replacement & Modernization NY 9,834 miles PA 4,852 miles Miles of Utility Main Pipeline Replaced(2) Utility Mains by Material(1) (1) All values are reported on a calendar year basis, as of December 31, 2024, as required by the DOT. (2) All values are reported on a fiscal year
Slide 45: Utility Targeting Substantial Emissions Reductions
Baseline emissions & emissions reduction targets are calculated pursuant to the reporting methodology under the EPA GHG Reporting Program (current Subpart W, and using AR5), primarily Distribution pipeline mains & services. New York Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, enacted in 2019. T
Slide 46: Guidance & Other Financial Information
Guidance & Other Financial Information Supplemental Information
Slide 47: Fiscal 2025 Adjusted EPS Guidance
Fiscal 2025 Adjusted EPS Guidance Previous FY25 Adj. EPS Guidance $6.50 to $7.00/share(1) $6.75 to $7.05/share(1) Updated FY25 Adj. EPS Guidance 415 - 425 Bcfe ~$2.72 - $2.76/Mcf(2) for the remaining six months of FY25 Key Guidance Drivers Net Production Realized natural gas prices (after-hedge) Pip
Slide 48: Utility Guidance for Fiscal 2025
Why National Fuel? Base rate increase Revenues previously recovered through system modernization trackers now in base rates Revenue requirement reduced by $14 MM to reflect pension/OPEB income (reflected in O&M expense and non-service costs) O&M Increase: Personnel costs Healthcare & benefit IT and
Slide 49: Regulated: Rate Case Overview
Regulated: Rate Case Overview Supply Empire NY(2) PA Regulatory Agency (Governed by) FERC FERC NYPSC PAPUC Timing / Status Settlement approved by FERC June 11, 2024 New rates went into effect February 1, 2024 No moratorium or comeback period Amendment to 2019 Settlement approved by FERC on March 17,
Slide 50: Safe Harbor For Forward Looking Statements
Safe Harbor For Forward Looking Statements This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements regarding future prospects, plans, objectives, goals, projections, estimates of gas quantities, strategies, f
Slide 51: Hedge Portfolio & Capped Firm Sales
Hedge Portfolio & Capped Firm Sales 3Q 2025 4Q 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028 FY 2029 Swaps Units Volume Bbtu 42,725 42,725 87,315 62,760 13,980 1,500 Wtd. Avg. Price $ / MMBtu $3.46 $3.46 $3.90 $3.93 $3.72 $3.53 Collars Volume Bbtu 19,080 19,080 98,615 40,000 6,680 -- Wtd. Avg. Ceiling $ / MMBtu $4.4
Slide 52: Comparable GAAP Financial Measure Slides & Reconciliations
Comparable GAAP Financial Measure Slides & Reconciliations This presentation contains certain non-GAAP financial measures. For pages that contain non-GAAP financial measures, pages containing the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are provided in the slides that fol
Slide 53: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Adjusted EBITDA & Net Debt
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Adjusted EBITDA & Net Debt
Slide 54: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Adjusted EBITDA, by Segment
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Adjusted EBITDA, by Segment
Slide 55: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Adjusted Operating Results
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Adjusted Operating Results
Slide 56: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Funds From Operations
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Funds From Operations
Slide 57: Reconciliation – Capital Expenditures
Reconciliation – Capital Expenditures