Tennessee Valley Authority · NYSE:TVC
Tennessee Valley Authority — Corporate Update (March 2015)
28 slides from Tennessee Valley Authority's corporate update, March 2015
Slide 1: 2015 Integrated Resource Plan
2015 Integrated Resource Plan Public Meeting Spring 2015
Slide 2: About Tonight's Meeting
About Tonight’s Meeting • This is both a live meeting, and a Webinar. • Webinar participants are muted. To ask questions: • Live meeting attendees can ask questions by coming to the podium at the front of the room. • Webinar attendees can submit Questions using the Question tool on the Webinar toolb
Slide 3: 20 Years From Now…
20 Years From Now… 2015 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN | 3
Slide 4: The Future of Our Energy Supply
The Future of Our Energy Supply • TVA power will still be reliable, affordable and sustainable • We will rely more on cost-effective energy efficiency • There will be more solar and wind power, and less coal • Natural gas will play a bigger role • TVA will continue to provide for economic growth in
Slide 5: Integrated Resource Plan
Integrated Resource Plan The IRP is a study of how TVA might meet energy and capacity needs in a variety of future environments. 2015 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN | 5
Slide 6: TVA's Mission is the Cornerstone
TVA’s Mission is the Cornerstone Energy Environment IRP Development Economic 2015 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN | 6
Slide 7: Stakeholder & Public Involvement Throughout the Process
Stakeholder & Public Involvement Throughout the Process Fall 2013 Our public engagement includes: • A stakeholder working group Input will be • Policy advisory groups incorporated • Customers & Valley residents throughout the process Spring 2015 2015 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN | 7
Slide 8: The Role of the IRP at TVA
The Role of the IRP at TVA The IRP Is … The IRP Does Not … • A planning study • Set rates • Used to identify the least cost • Identify sites for new generating power supply mix units • Designed to evaluate future • Provide all the answers we need uncertainty X 2015 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN | 8
Slide 9: TVA's Resource Planning Process
TVA’s Resource Planning Process • The IRP uses industry- standard models and Low Cost incorporates best practices Reliable • All input data & modeling Risk Informed assumptions were Diverse independently validated Environmentally • The best (optimum) Responsible resource plan will meet Flexible thes
Slide 10: Innovation Leads to Better Results
Innovation Leads to Better Results • We have a history of innovation, starting in the 1940s with fertilizer research • The IRP continues this tradition with unique approaches to modeling energy efficiency and renewables • The future will require continued innovation as we learn to operate a changing
Slide 11: Considering Risk & Uncertainty
Considering Risk & Uncertainty • Risk is about forecasting what the cost of a cup of coffee will be 20 years from now • Uncertainty is about predicting whether or not the coffee will even be available 20 years from now • We address both of these factors when choosing the least-cost option 2015 INTEG
Slide 12: Selected Scenarios and Strategies
Selected Scenarios and Strategies External Factors Shaping the Environment TVA’s Response & Portfolio Goals Scenarios Strategies 1 - Current Outlook A - The Reference Plan 2 - Stagnant Economy B - Meet an Emissions Target 3 - Growth Economy C - Focus on Long-Term, Market-Supplied Resources 4 - De-Ca
Slide 13: The Need for Power
The Need for Power Projected Capacity Gap • The capacity gap is the MW, SND Current Outlook 15,000 difference between the need for Highest (Growth Economy) power and today’s resources Lowest (Distributed Marketplace) 10,000 • The amount of new capacity needed will range from 4,400 to 5,000 about 12,
Slide 14: Key Criteria Used to Evaluate Strategy Performance
Key Criteria Used to Evaluate Strategy Performance Identifies long-range and shorter term system costs Cost Financial Measures the uncertainty around the cost of various plans Risk Environmental Captures multiple measures related to the environmental “footprint” Stewardship Valley Measures per capit
Slide 15: How Do the Strategies Compare?
How Do the Strategies Compare? • COST: Long-term total costs are similar, but Strategies emphasizing renewables or energy efficiency may lead to higher rates later A - The Reference Plan • FINANCIAL RISK: Scores are higher for strategies that B - Meet an Emissions emphasize particular resource choic
Slide 16: Resource Choices Set A New Direction
Resource Choices Set A New Direction • Additional capacity is needed in all scenarios • New natural gas capacity needed in every scenario; as early as 2020 in some cases • No significant baseload expansion beyond Watts Bar Unit 2 and Browns Ferry Nuclear power uprates • Higher energy efficiency and
Slide 17: The Generation Fleet Will Be Cleaner
The Generation Fleet Will Be Cleaner Potential Capacity Mix Under Current Planning Scenario Resource Types 2014 35 GW Nuclear 2033 – The Reference Plan Coal 43 GW Hydro 2033 – Meet an Emissions Target Non-emitting Natural Gas sources 2033 – Focus on Market Supplied Resources account for Renewables 6
Slide 18: Getting To A Recommendation
Getting To A Recommendation Cost of Reliability Portfolio Power Mix Keeping electricity Maintaining Seeking a affordable availability of balanced portfolio supply and ability that minimizes risk to deliver and diversifies resources 2015 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN | 18
Slide 19: IRP Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement
IRP Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement
Slide 20: Purpose and Approach of the EIS
Purpose and Approach of the EIS • Decision-makers informed of environmental impacts • Public involvement • National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) • System-wide study of environmental impacts • Subsequent site-specific studies 2015 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN | 20
Slide 21: Focusing on These Key Factors
Focusing on These Key Factors • Air quality • CO2 emissions • Water resources • Fuel requirements • Waste production We strive to be good stewards • Land requirements of the Valley’s natural resources. • Employment and per It’s part of who we are at TVA. capita income 2015 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN |
Slide 22: CO2 Emissions by Alternative Strategy
CO2 Emissions Typical of Study Trends CO2 Emissions by Alternative Strategy 80 Annual CO2 Emissions, million tons No Action 70 A 60 B 50 C 40 D E 30 Note: Strategy B 20 emissions are the same as Strategy A Strategies C - Focus on Long-Term Market D - Maximize Energy A - The Reference Plan B - Meet a
Slide 23: Observations in the EIS
Observations in the EIS • Long term decreases in: - Air emissions - CO2 emissions - Water use and consumption - Coal use and ash production • Differences among strategies small - Maximize Renewables has lowest impacts to most resources, but largest land requirements 2015 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN | 2
Slide 24: Next Steps
Next Steps • Complete public comment period and take input into consideration in final analysis • Complete sensitivity case analysis to better understand resource mix choices • Identify target power supply mix and recommend to Board • Release final IRP and SEIS reports Inputs & Analyze & Present Re-
Slide 25: Comment Period March 13 – April 27, 2015
Comment Period March 13 – April 27, 2015 March 19 Chattanooga, TN April 15 Memphis, TN April 6 Knoxville, TN April 21 Nashville, TN April 9 Huntsville, AL April 22 Bowling Green, KY April 14 Tupelo, MS Meeting Time: 7:00 – 8:30 PM local time 2015 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN | 25
Slide 26: We Want Your Input
We Want Your Input How you can comment: • Complete a comment card • Use the online IRP comment form www.tva.gov/irp 2015 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN | 26
Slide 27: www.tva.gov/irp
For information and to comment: www.tva.gov/irp 2015 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN | 27
Slide 28: Slide 28
Tennessee Valley Authority — Corporate Update (March 2015) on 6ix