Lincoln International, Inc. · NYSE:LCLN
Lincoln International — Q3 2026 Earnings Presentation
23 slides from Lincoln International's earnings presentation, Sep 10, 2026
Slide 1: Q3 2026 Private Market Webinar: European Edition
n ly t O p i en c i Re Q3 2026 Private Market ifi ed nt de Webinar: European Edition f or I d de t en l. In ia e nt id nf Capital Advisory Group Co Valuations & Opinions Group 10 September 2026
Slide 2: Today's Webinar Speakers
Today’s Webinar Speakers Nick Baldwin Aude Doyen Managing Director, Managing Director & Co- Valuations & Opinions Head of Capital Advisory, Europe n ly O t ip ie n c Re ifi ed nt I de f or d de t en Johnny Mullins l. In Richard Parsons ia Managing Director, e nt Managing Director, id Valuations & Op
Slide 3: Observed New Buyouts
Observed New Buyouts EV / EBITDA Transaction Multiples (VOG & M&A) Lincoln-Observed Deal Activity 13.1x 12.9x 12.5x 12.3x 12.5x 12.4x 101 12.3x 11.5x 11.7x 10.5x 95 89 n ly t O p i en 82 c i 78 Re 72 70 t if ie d 62 en 59 d rI fo d ed 42 n te l . In H2 '21 H1 '22 H2 '22 H1 '23 H2 '23 H1 '24 H2 '24 H
Slide 4: Observed New Buyouts by Industry
Observed New Buyouts by Industry 6.9% 11.2% 14.3% 15.8% 17.7% 15.9% 21.8% 22.0% 20.8% 28.6% 19.4% n y l15.9% 28.1% 21.4% 20.0% O 12.8% 25.8% ie nt 15.3% 14.9% 18.1% 14.3% ci p Re 12.2% 12.6% 16.7% d t fie i14.3% 22.0% 17.8% 19.0% 21.3% 12.9% e n 13.4% 16.7% d rI 18.9% 11.5% fo 5.7% ed 13.9% 11.9% 12
Slide 5: European Lincoln Private Market Index Results
European Lincoln Private Market Index Results 17,000 16,421 16,000 15,761 15,484 15,000 14,000 13,000 13,113 12,000 O n ly t ie n 11,000 10,000 ip 10,412 9,000 R ec ed tifi 8,000 7,000 d en '2 0 '2 1 '2 1 '2 1 '2 1 '2 2 '2 2 '2 2 '2 2 '2 3 '2 3 I r '23 '2 3 '2 4 '2 4 '2 4 '2 4 '2 5 '2 5 '2 5 '2 5 '2
Slide 6: European Lincoln PMI QoQ Delta Drivers: Multiples vs Earnings
European Lincoln PMI QoQ Delta Drivers: Multiples vs Earnings Local Currency 10.0% 8.0% n ly t O 6.0% 5.2% p i en 4.2% 4.7% c i 3.3% Re 4.0% 2.8% e d 3.2% tifi 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 1.9% 2.2% 2.0% d en 1.2% 1.3% 1.7% 1.4% 0.7% rI 0.6% 0.9% 0.0% fo 0.5% 0.0% e d e nd (1.3%) nt (2.0%) l .I n tia e (4.0%
Slide 7: European Software Valuation Multiples over Time
European Software Valuation Multiples over Time 16.9x 16.4x n ly 16.0x t O 15.7x p i en c i 15.4xe R ifi ed 15.1x nt I de f or d n de 14.1x 14.2x e nt l .I n tia e n fid Co 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2025 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2026 Q1 2026 Q2 Source: Lincoln Lens - Private Market Intelligence 7 © 2026 Lin
Slide 8: European Fair Value Trends across Direct Lending Loans in Software
European Fair Value Trends across Direct Lending Loans in Software Lincoln Fair Value for Software Loan QoQ by LTV Change in Spread for Software Loan Q4-Q2 by LTV 100.1% 100.0% 100% 99.8% 1.20% 99.3% 99.6% 99.2% 99% n ly 1.07% 99.6 99.2 99.3 98.7 98.2% 1.00% t O 98% 98.3 98.6 ie n ci p Re0.80% 96.6
Slide 9: Magnitude of LTM Revenue & Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Magnitude of LTM Revenue & Adjusted EBITDA Growth Pre-Covid Covid Inflationary Period Normalization Period 2019 AVERAGE EARNINGS GROWING GAP: 6.3% FASTER THAN REVENUE 16.2% 15.2% 14.2% 14.3% nl y 12.4% 13.7% O 12.7% nt 12.9% ie 12.7% ip R ec ed 9.6% tifi 11.5% 11.2% 9.7% 10.6% 9.1% 9.4% 8.5% 8.0% d
Slide 10: YoY LTM Revenue & EBITDA Growth Magnitude by Industry
YoY LTM Revenue & EBITDA Growth Magnitude by Industry YoY LTM Revenue Growth 11.1% 9.1% 7.8% 8.0% 8.0% 5.5% 6.9% 7.0% 6.2% n ly 4.8% t O ip ie n c Business Services Consumer Healthcare Re Industrials Technology if ie d Q2 2025 nt 2026 Q2 I de f or d YoY LTM EBITDA Growth de t en In l. 8.9% ia 7.1% e
Slide 11: Covenant Default & Holiday Rate
Covenant Default & Holiday Rate Size-Weighted 4.0% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.5% n ly 3.0% 1.3% 1.5% t O 1.6% 2.7% p i en c i Re 2.5% 2.3% 2.0% ifi ed nt 1.8% I de 1.5% 1.5% or 1.5% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 2.5% 1.2% f 1.6% 1.0% 0.9% d ed 1.3% 1.1% en I nt 1.5% a l. 0.5% 1.2% 0.6% 0.7% n ti 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2
Slide 12: Covenant Default & Holiday Rate by First Occurrence
Covenant Default & Holiday Rate by First Occurrence Size-Weighted 2.5% 2.1% 2.0% n ly t O en 1.7% i p i 1.5% c Re 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% tif ie d en 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% d 0.8% rI fo 0.4% ed 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% nd 0.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.8% t e 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% l. In 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% ia 0.2% 0.2% nt 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Slide 13: Percentage of Companies PIKing Interest
Payment-in-Kind 17.3% 16.4% 16.7% 16.1% 16.1% 15.1% 14.6% 13.8% 13.8% n ly Percentage of Companies PIKing Interest 12.8% t O ie n 8.4% 8.6% ci p 11.6% 8.2% 8.2% 11.1% 8.9% 9.9% 10.3% 10.4% Re 8.0% d 9.3% 9.0% ifie 8.5% t 9.6% n 7.6% 6.7% 4.3% 7.5% 7.5% I de 6.9% r 6.3% 6.6% fo 5.1% e d nd 5.2% 3.9%
Slide 14: Amendment Activity
Amendment Activity Size-Weighted 51.7% 50.0% QUARTERLY AMENDMENTS & SIZE- n ly WEIGHTED % OF PORTFOLIO t O ip ie n Q4 2025 35.5% R ec 34.5% 31 Amendments d 5.8% of portfolio 27.6% 28.1% t ifie 27.6% 29.0% n de 25.0% 25.8% I 22.6% f or 21.9% Q1 2026 d ed 32 Amendments n n te 5.4% of portfolio .I t ia
Slide 15: Lender Control
Lender Control Lender-Control Debt as % of Total Portfolio Debt 2025 - YTD 2026 Lender-Control Debt by Vintage (%) 0.9% 37.9% n ly 0.8% O 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% ie 8.2% nt 18.1% 10.1% 13.7% 12.0% FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 YTD 2026 ci p Re Pre-2020 2020 2021 2022 2023 ifi ed Lender-Control Case Count b
Slide 16: Translating Market Stress into Valuation Outcomes
Translating Market Stress into Valuation Outcomes Valuation Framework 1 Downturn scenario 2 Operating forecasts 3 Valuation assumptions Macroeconomic framing Asset level impact Credit risk Sector revenue change Performance, liquidity and leverage n ly Enterprise value and debt capacity Secto
Slide 17: The Near-Term Private Credit Maturity Wall Is Meaningful, But the Risk Is Concentrated
The Near-Term Private Credit Maturity Wall Is Meaningful, But the Risk Is Concentrated 2028 stands out as a key refinancing year, combining meaningful maturity volume with elevated levels of stressed and highly levered debt European Private Credit Maturities And Credit Risk (Lincoln Proprietary Data
Slide 18: The First Response Is Often An Extension – But The Existing Lender May Not
The First Response Is Often An Extension – But The Existing Lender May Not Be Able To Take The Loan Through The Next Cycle An amend-and-extend solves the borrower’s near-term maturity, but only if the asset meets the lender’s mandate, fund dynamics and return requirements Can The Incumbent Lender No
Slide 19: When An Extension Is Not Enough, The Solution Shifts From More Time To More Capital
When An Extension Is Not Enough, The Solution Shifts From “More Time” To “More Capital” There are three ways to solve the residual maturity problem – the right approach depends on the business, the capital structure and the lender’s fund dynamics PIK Continues To Play A Meaningful Role Add Capital /
Slide 20: Concluding remarks
Concluding remarks Activity has improved, but the market remains difficult to transact: conviction is concentrated in A+ assets and sponsor sentiment remains polarised Sentiment has Listed PE has Investor appetite remains Overall outlook is Market concentrated in resilient improved from recovered fr
Slide 21: Thank You!
n ly t O p i en c i Re ifi ed nt I de f or d de t en Thank You! l. In ia e nt id nf Co
Slide 22: Disclosure
Disclosure The S&P/Lincoln U.S. Senior Debt Index and the S&P/Lincoln European Senior Debt Index (“Index(es)”) and associated data are a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, its affiliates, Lincoln Partners Advisors LLC and/or their licensors. The Lincoln Private Market Index™ is an informational i
Slide 23: Speaker contact details
Nick Baldwin Aude Doyen Johnny Mullins Richard Parsons Managing Director Managing Director & Co-Head Managing Director Managing Director Valuations & Opinions of Capital Advisory, Europe Valuations & Opinions Financial Sponsors Group nbaldwin@lincolni.com adoyen@lincolni.com jfmullins@lincolni.com r
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