ICF International, Inc. · NASDAQ:ICFI
ICF International — Technical Presentation (2014)
35 slides from ICF International's technical presentation, 2014
Slide 1: TOU Tariff Analysis and Program Development
TOU Tariff Analysis and Program Development A project of USAID’s Energy Efficiency for Clean Development Program (EECDP) Haider Khan, ICF 2014
Slide 2: Introduction
Introduction ——_- el 4 ) “ICF
Slide 3: DSM - Energy Efficiency
DSM - Energy Efficiency Permanent reduction in consumption Reduction occurs across most hours of the load curve May or may not reduce system peak demand Provides same or better energy service with fewer kWh
Slide 4: DSM - Demand Response
DSM - Demand Response Temporary reduction in consumption Reductions targeted at specific hours, typically coincident with system peak May be associated with curtailment of service – But may not be perceived as curtailment
Slide 5: Demand Response
Demand Response Load Curtailment – Direct load control – Interruptible load control Dynamic Pricing – Real time Pricing – Time of Use (TOU) – Critical Peak Pricing (CPP)
Slide 6: Demand Response
Demand Response Utility-controlled switches on specific devices, e.g. AC units, water heaters – Pro Quick demand reductions – Cons Requires large number participation Generally not applicable to industrial customers. Can be applied to most smaller customers with at least one appropriate load
Slide 7: Types of Demand Response Programs - Interruptible Load
Types of Demand Response Programs - Interruptible Load Contract with customers to reduce demand as needed to stabilize grid – Pro Applicable to industrial customers Large demand reduction potential – Cons Requires lead time – good forecasting tools
Slide 8: Types of Demand Response Programs - Time Based Programs
Types of Demand Response Programs - Time Based Programs Time of Use: Price electricity higher in peak periods – Can be applied to any customer class Critical peak pricing: for the highest peak hours – Difficult to implement as require advanced forecasting models Real time pricing: changes by h
Slide 9: Time of Use Rate Structure
Time of Use Rate Structure 1600 1400 1200 1000 kWh 800 600 400 200 0 Time of Day • Energy used in the blue shading is charged at off-peak rates • Energy used in the red shading is charged at on-peak rates • On-peak times are for non-holiday weekdays. • Weekends / holidays are always off-peak.
Slide 10: Potential Impact of TOU Rate Structure
Potential Impact of TOU Rate Structure Current Situation 2000 1500 1000 Industrial 500 Commercial Residential 0 After TOU Implementation 2000 1500 1000 Industrial 500 Commercial 0 Residential
Slide 11: Why ECG Needs to Implement TOU Rate Structure
Why ECG Needs to Implement TOU Rate Structure Industrial customers are using high demand end loads during peak hours that can easily be shifted to off-peak hours Smart Meters provide ECG the ability Cost of generation varies with demand It will help stabilize the electricity supply resulting
Slide 12: Sample Industrial Customer Load Review
MW MW 2 4 8 - 6 - 10 12 14 16 18 10 20 30 40 50 80 90 60 70 12:00 AM 12:00 AM 12:30 AM 12:30 AM 1:00 AM 1:00 AM 1:30 AM 1:30 AM 2:00 AM 2:00 AM 2:30 AM 2:30 AM 3:00 AM 3:00 AM 3:30 AM 3:30 AM 4:00 AM 4:00 AM 4:30 AM 4:30 AM 5:00 AM 5:00 AM 5:30 AM 5:30 AM 6:00 AM 6:00 AM 6:30 AM 6:30 AM 7:00 AM 7:00
Slide 13: How Will ECG's Customers Benefit From TOU Rate Structure
How Will ECG’s Customers Benefit From TOU Rate Structure System reliability improvement The targeted industrial sector will be able to save money
Slide 14: Approach
Approach Activity 1: Document Review Activity 2: Conduct Metering Data Analysis. Activity 3: Determine Utility Costing Periods and Develop TOU Tariff Strategies Activity 4: Create Marketing Plan and Support Pilot Rollout
Slide 15: Baseline Energy Use
Baseline Energy Use @) T T T T 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Year
Slide 16: Electricity Use by Tariff Class
Electricity Use by Tariff Class
Slide 17: Electricity Sector Revenue Shortfall
Electricity Sector Revenue Shortfall Year Generation COS Transmission Distribution ECG Revenue ECG Revenue (million US$) COS (million COS (million Requirements, Requirements, ECG US$) US$) COS study (million GHc [million (million US$) US$]) 2014 764 96.4 433 442 3,389.3 [1,118.5]
Slide 18: System Demand (MW)
System Demand (MW) 0 1000 1500 2000 2500 500 1 339 677 1015 1353 1691 2029 2367 2705 3043 3381 Total System Load 3719 4057 4395 Hour 4733 5071 5409 5747 6085 6423 6761 7099 7437 System Load Review 7775 System Load in Ghana 8113 8451
Slide 19: System Load Review
System Load Review System Load 1500-1700 MW System Load >1700 MW 40% 35% 30% % of Peak Hours 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1 6 11 16 21 Hour of Day
Slide 20: System Load Review
System Load Review 1800 450 1600 400 1400 350 1200 300 Average MW 1000 250 2013 MW Average CDD 800 200 600 150 2013 Monthly CDD (base 15.5 C) 400 100 200 50 0 0
Slide 21: Literature Review
Literature Review Algeria 8.2 3 Iran 5.4 3 Israel 21.13 3 Egypt 4.12 2 Jordan 9.2 2 Lebanon 21.2 3 Morocco 13.8 3 Syria 6.5 3 Tunisia 10.1 4 China (Jiangsu) 3.8 3 Korea 3.58 3 South Africa 7.3 3 Taiwan 2.67 3 Thailand 2 2 Turkey 2.59 3 Vietnam 3.12 3 ly USAID Wer
Slide 22: Snapshot of Industrial Electricity Price Elasticity
Snapshot of Industrial Electricity Price Elasticity Market Date of Own-price Substitution Study Elasticity Elasticity Ontario Canada 1997 -0.07 to -0.09 0.7 to 0.11 CA, NY, and 1984 -0.014 to -0.02 Midwest California US 1983 -0.03 Ontario Canada 1986 N/A Texas US 1984 -1.1 0.21 California US 1983 -0
Slide 23: Analysis
Analysis Substitution Elasticity 0.02 0.15 0.27 - 0.41 Calculation for Each Combination: Own - On-Peak Consumption Change Price 0.78 Off-Peak Consumption Change Elasticity Revenue Impact - 1.01
Slide 24: Scenario Analysis
Scenario Analysis Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 (Recommended) Ratio of On-Peak to Off-peak 2 4 8 TOU Off-peak discount 15% 35% 55% Estimated On-Peak Consumption -8% -13% -18% Change Estimated Off-Peak Consumption -1% -2% -6% Change Estimated Revenue Impact 0% -2% -4% Potential System Peak Load 73
Slide 25: Proposed Tariff
Proposed Tariff LV MV HV HV - Time Periodi Hours Total % Total Mines per Day Hours per Annual Year Hours Current Energy Charge 51.71 40.02 36.80 58.41 All Hours 24 8760 N/A (Ghp/kWh) Proposed Off-Peak Energy 43.95 34.02 31.28 49.65 11 PM to 6 PM 19 6935 79% Charge (Ghp/kWh) Proposed On-Peak Energy 8
Slide 26: Industrial TOU Program Savings & Costs
Industrial TOU Program Savings & Costs Program Metric 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Incremental MW Savings 0 31 36 50 56 Cumulative MW Savings 0 31 36 50 56 Annual Program Costs ($Millions, USD) $0.45 $0.3 $0.3 $0.3 $0.3 Annual Program Costs (Millions GHc) GHC 0 GHc 717 GHc 478 GHc 478 GHc 478
Slide 27: Industrial TOU Program Cost-Effectiveness
Industrial TOU Program Cost-Effectiveness Utility Cost Test (UCT) Ratio 4.7 Net UCT Benefits ($Millions) $36.6 Net UCT Benefits (Millions GHc) GHS 110.9 Levelized cost per kWh ($) $2.25 Levelized cost per kWh (GHc) GHS 6.8 Levelized cost per kW ($) $10 Levelized cost per kW (1000 GHc) GHS 33.30
Slide 28: Goals/Program Alternatives
Goals/Program Alternatives Achievable Market Equity Political Program Implementation Net Utility MW Savings Transformation Feasibility Complexity Risk Benefits Potential Potential ($Millions) (Cumulative, 2019) 56 Not applicable. Equity within the High. Low. Start-up Low. Requires $36.6 industrial s
Slide 29: Recommended Next Steps
Recommended Next Steps Create marketing brochures to clearly communicate the program details. Implement a voluntary pilot with a small set of industrial customers. Revise the program based on the findings of the pilot and launch ‘opt-in’ TOU program to build momentum. (3-6 months from program st
Slide 30: Customer Messaging for TOU pricing
Customer Messaging for TOU pricing Shift the energy intensive end-use to off-peak hours to save money If your facility has on-site generation use it during on-peak hours Manage electricity use for all end-uses; e.g. Charge batteries and fill compressed air tanks at night Implement an energy
Slide 31: Motivation
Motivation • Chronic capacity and energy shortages • The recent tariff increase to about US $0.20/kWh can cause an adverse impact on the competitiveness of Ghanaian industries Goal • Provide technical assistance to address load management by developing a Time of Use (TOU) tariff analysis and program
Slide 32: Why Industrial Sector
Why Industrial Sector Customers already have the necessary infrastructure in the form of smart meters Customers electricity demand holds the greatest potential for load modification, Customers accounts for a high share of the total electricity usage
Slide 33: Potential
Potential • Various scenarios were analyzed resulting in economic potential demand reduction ranging from 73MW to 167MW. – Due to the already high electricity prices, the scenario that results in the least aggressive pricing is recommended to ensure widespread acceptability. • The recommended tariff
Slide 34: Proposed Rate Structure
Proposed Rate Structure LV MV HV HV - Time Periodi Hours Total % Total Mines per Day Hours per Annual Year Hours Current Energy Charge 51.71 40.02 36.80 58.41 All Hours 24 8760 N/A (Ghp/kWh) Proposed Off-Peak Energy 43.95 34.02 31.28 49.65 11 PM to 6 PM 19 6935 79% Charge (Ghp/kWh) Proposed On-Peak
Slide 35: Program Recommendations
Program Recommendations It is recommended the program be launched as a voluntary pilot for a period of 3-6 months. – The program should be revised based on the outcome of the pilot, ‘Opt-in’ program should be launched for a period of 12-18 months. – This will give sufficient time for the program