Xcel Energy Inc. · NASDAQ:XEL
Xcel Energy — Q4 2023 Earnings Presentation
27 slides from Xcel Energy's earnings presentation, Jan 25, 2024
Slide 1: 2023 Year End Earnings Report Presentation
2023 YEAR END EARNINGS REPORT PRESENTATION January 25, 2024 © 2024 Xcel Energy 1
Slide 2: Safe Harbor
Safe Harbor Except for the historical statements contained in this presentation, the matters discussed herein are forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Such forward-looking statements, including those relating to 2024 EPS guidance, long-term EPS
Slide 3: 2023 Highlights
2023 Highlights • Delivered ongoing EPS of $3.35, representing the 19th consecutive year of meeting or exceeding guidance • Raised annual dividend 6.7%, representing the 20th consecutive annual increase • Strong line of sight to achieve our 5-7% long-term EPS growth rate • Updated our base 5-year ca
Slide 4: EPS Results by Operating Company
EPS Results by Operating Company Fourth Quarter Full Year Operating Company 2023 2022 2023 2022 NSPM $0.33 $0.29 $1.28 $1.23 PSCo 0.29 0.31 1.26 1.33 SPS 0.15 0.12 0.70 0.64 NSPW 0.06 0.04 0.25 0.23 Earnings from equity method investments 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.04 Regulated utility 0.84 0.78 3.52 3.47 Hol
Slide 5: Annual EPS Change
Annual EPS Change * Combined electric and natural gas margins include ~$0.10 of negative weather impacts (post regulatory mechanisms) ** Changes primarily offset by lower electric revenues and are earnings neutral *** Primarily related to rabbi trust performance, which is primarily offset in employe
Slide 6: Quarterly EPS Change
Quarterly EPS Change * Combined electric and natural gas margins include ~$0.05 of negative weather impacts (post regulatory mechanisms) 6
Slide 7: Sales and Customer Data
Sales and Customer Data 2023 W/A Retail Electric Sales Growth 2023 YoY Electric Customer Growth 4.5% 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% -0.4% -0.3% NSPM NSPW PSCo SPS Xcel Energy NSPM NSPW PSCo SPS Xcel Energy 2023 W/A Natural Gas Sales Growth 2023 YoY Natural Gas Customer Growth 2.3% 1.1% 0.9% 1.1%
Slide 8: SPS Texas Electric Rate Case
SPS Texas Electric Rate Case Proceeding No. 54634 • In December 2023, SPS and parties filed a settlement with the PUCT. Key terms include: − Rate increase of $65 million − ROE of 9.55% and equity ratio of 54.5% for AFUDC purposes − Acceleration of Tolk coal plant retirement from 2034 to 2028 − Histo
Slide 9: NSPM Minnesota Natural Gas Rate Case
NSPM Minnesota Natural Gas Rate Case Proceeding No. 23-413 • In November 2023, NSPM filed a natural gas rate case requesting: − Base rate increase of ~$59 million − ROE of 10.2%, equity ratio of 52.5% and 2024 forward test year • MPUC approved interim rates of $51 million, subject to refund, effecti
Slide 10: NSPM North Dakota Natural Gas Rate Case
NSPM North Dakota Natural Gas Rate Case Proceeding No. 23-367 • In December 2023, NSPM filed a natural gas rate case requesting: − Base rate increase of ~$8 million − ROE of 10.2%, equity ratio of 52.5% and 2024 forward test year − Rate base of $168 million • Interim rates of ~$8 million in effect M
Slide 11: Updated Base Capital Forecast 2024 – 2028
Updated Base Capital Forecast 2024 – 2028 Investment by Function Investment by Driver Carbon-Free Other Electric Generation 8% Distribution SPS 16% NSPM 27% 15% Other 37% Natural Gas 20% LDC 8% T&D Other$22.5 25% ~$39 ~$39 Resiliency Electric Billion Generation Billion Billion 27% 13% Electric Renew
Slide 12: Additional Capital – Steel for Fuel 2.0
Additional Capital – Steel for Fuel 2.0 Additional Capital 2024 – 2028 $44,000 $ Millions $740 $1,640+ $2,620 NSPM 1,200 MW $39,000 Recommended Wind & Other RFPs Solar + Storage Future PSCo RFPs Base Capital Plan PSCo Resource Plan SPS Resource Plan NSP RFPs Additional Capital Plan Estimates are sub
Slide 13: Additional Capital – Steel for Fuel 2.0
Additional Capital – Steel for Fuel 2.0 Capital Expenditures 2024 – 2028 $ Billions $1.2 $1.4 $1.3 $1.1 $9.3 $7.4 $7.9 $7.6 $6.8 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Base Incremental Estimates are subject to change, RFP processes and regulatory approvals Additional capital investment above the Base Plan would b
Slide 14: Strong Rate Base Growth
Strong Rate Base Growth Xcel Energy Consolidated OpCo Base CAGRs 2023 – 2028 Base 2023 - 2028 CAGR: ~9.0% Additional 2023 - 2028 CAGR: ~10.6% NSPM PSCo $4.6 ~7% ~12% $3.7 $ Billions XEL $2.5 ~9% $1.2 NSPW SPS $61.8 $64.8 ~12% ~4% $57.7 $53.1 $46.5 $41.9 OpCo CAGRs exclude potential 2023 2024 2025 20
Slide 15: Financing Plan 2024 – 2028
Financing Plan 2024 – 2028* $3,500 $500 $ Millions $13,000 $3,780 $3,780 $39,000 $22,000 CFO** Maturing Refinanced Incremental Equity Equity Base Plan LT Debt LT Debt Debt (Other) (DRIP) * Financing plans reflect tax credit transferability and are subject to change ** Cash from operations is net of
Slide 16: Current RFP Update
Current RFP Update Current RFPs Upcoming RFPs • CPUC approval of 5,800 MW portfolio • Just transition filing in 2024, which could include • Owned = 3,100 MW (54%; ~$4.8 billion) remaining generation from preferred portfolio PSCo • Transmission (~$2.6 billion) will be reviewed • Additional resource n
Slide 17: 2024 Ongoing EPS Guidance: $3.50 - $3.60
2024 Ongoing EPS Guidance: $3.50 - $3.60 Earnings Drivers Key Assumptions (as compared to 2023 levels unless noted) Regulatory proceedings Constructive outcomes in all pending proceedings Weather Normal weather patterns for the year W/A retail electric sales Increase of ~2 - 3% W/A retail firm natur
Slide 18: Appendix
APPENDIX 18
Slide 19: ROE Results – Ongoing Earnings
ROE Results – Ongoing Earnings Ongoing ROE* 2022 Rate Base Twelve Months Ended 12/31/2023 SPS 10.67% 10.79% 17% 9.11% 9.98% 8.79% NSPM 7.77% 38% ~$39 PSCo Billion 40% NSPM NSPW PSCo SPS Total Xcel Energy OpCo NSPW 5% * Ongoing ROEs exclude impacts of Comanche Unit 3 litigation and workforce reductio
Slide 20: Base Capital Expenditures by Function
Base Capital Expenditures by Function $ Millions 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Total Electric Transmission $1,710 $2,020 $2,450 $2,850 $2,470 $11,500 Electric Distribution $1,770 $1,960 $2,200 $2,200 $2,470 $10,600 Renewables $1,500 $2,910 $940 $240 $20 $5,610 Electric Generation $940 $1,290 $1,050 $1,06
Slide 21: Base Capital Expenditures by Company
Base Capital Expenditures by Company $ Millions 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Total NSPM $2,660 $2,970 $2,380 $2,500 $2,540 $13,050 NSPW $570 $600 $570 $600 $650 $2,990 PSCo $3,300 $5,230 $4,320 $3,620 $2,730 $19,200 SPS $910 $780 $660 $870 $830 $4,050 Other* ($20) ($300) $10 $10 $10 ($290) Total $7,420
Slide 22: Strong Balance Sheet and Credit Metrics
Strong Balance Sheet and Credit Metrics Plan 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 FFO/Debt 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% Debt/EBITDA 5.3x 5.3x 5.3x 5.3x 5.2x Equity Ratio 41% 41% 41% 40% 41% Hold Co Debt/Total Debt 24% 22% 23% 23% 23% Credit Ratings Moody’s S&P Fitch Xcel Energy Unsecured Baa1 BBB+ BBB+ NSPM Secured Aa3
Slide 23: 2024 Debt Financing Plan
2024 Debt Financing Plan $ Millions Issuer Security Amount Anticipated Timing Hold Co Unsecured Bonds $900 Q1 NSPM First Mortgage Bonds $700 Q1 NSPW First Mortgage Bonds $400 Q2 PSCo First Mortgage Bonds $1,200 Q2 SPS First Mortgage Bonds $550 Q2 Financing plans are subject to change, depending on c
Slide 24: 2023 W/A Electric Sales Growth
2023 W/A Electric Sales Growth NSPM NSPW PSCo SPS Residential C&I Total Retail 5.3% 4.5% 1.0% 1.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.3% -1.1% -0.4% -0.4% -0.3% -0.4% Extreme weather variations, windchill and cloud cover may not be reflected in estimates 24
Slide 25: Xcel Energy W/A Sales Growth
Xcel Energy W/A Sales Growth Residential C&I Total Retail Electric Natural Gas Electric Natural Gas 3.2% 2.1% 1.7% 1.8% 1.0% 1.4% 0.8% 1.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% -1.3% 2021* 2022 2023 2021* 2022 2023 2021* 2022 2023 2021* 2022 2023 * Leap year adjusted Extreme weather variations, windchill and cloud cover
Slide 26: 2024 Q1 Events
2024 Q1 Events Events Dates Barclays Fixed Income Conference March 5 Morgan Stanley Energy & Power Conference March 5 Bank of America Power, Utilities & Clean Energy Conference March 6 MUFG Japan Conference March 11-12 J.P. Morgan Midwest Utilities & Midstream Conference March 27 26
Slide 27: © 2024 Xcel Energy
© 2024 Xcel Energy 27