Slide 1: 2027 IRP TAC Meeting No. 4 Agenda
2027 Electric and Natural Gas Integrated Resource Plans Technical Advisory Committee Meeting No. 4 Agenda Wednesday, January 21, 2026 Virtual Meeting – 1:00 pm to 4:00 pm Pacific Time Topic State Audience • Introduction and Questions from TAC 3 • Carbon Sequestration All E&G • Natural Gas Market Ove
Slide 2: Introductions 2027 Electric & Gas Integrated Resource Planning
Introductions 2027 Electric & Gas Integrated Resource Planning TAC 4 – January 21 , 2026 John Lyons, Ph.D. – Senior Resource Policy Analyst
Slide 3: TAC 4 Agenda
TAC 4 Agenda • Introduction and Questions from TAC 3, John Lyons • (Moved from TAC 3, Jan. 2026) Carbon Sequestration (E&G), Robert Hughes • Natural Gas Market Overview and Price Forecast (E&G), Jon Lee • DER Forecast on Distribution System (Distribution), Erik Lee • Cost of Carbon – SCC, Allowances
Slide 4: Meeting Guidelines
Meeting Guidelines • IRP team is in office Monday – Wednesday; also available by email, phone and Teams for questions and comments • Stakeholder feedback responses shared with TAC at meetings, in Teams and in Appendix • Working IRP data posted to Teams • All TAC meetings will be virtual on Teams • D
Slide 5: Virtual TAC Meeting Reminders
Virtual TAC Meeting Reminders • Please mute mics unless speaking or asking a question • Raise hand or use the chat box for questions or comments • Respect the pause • Please try not to speak over the presenter or a speaker • Please state your name before commenting for the note taker • This is a pub
Slide 6: Temperature Forecast Update
Temperature Forecast Update • At the November TAC meeting Avista proposed using RCP 4.5 trends for the hydro and load forecast. • Avista received comments to use RCP 8.5 trends (warmer future). • Avista is considering moving to RCP 8.5 and will provide a comparison of temperature and hydro forecasts
Slide 7: Oregon Study Aldyl-A Pipeline Replacement Program & TVE Pilot
Oregon Study Aldyl-A Pipeline Replacement Program & Targeted Voluntary Electrification (TVE) Pilot TAC 4 – January 21, 2026 • Shawn Bonfield – Senior Manager Regulatory Policy
Slide 8: Study Scope of Work
Study Scope of Work 1. Assessment of Aldyl-A pipe where capping or pruning is possible to include in study • Capping or pruning is intended to mean identifying sections of the natural gas system that may be decommissioned or removed. 2. Determine low, average, and high Aldyl-A replacement costs for
Slide 9: Pipe & Customer Information for Study
Pipe & Customer Information for Study Avg. # of Avg. # of Pipe # Customers per Total Pipe Footage per City Segments Customers Segment Footage Segment ASHLAND 19 74 4 4,596 242 CANYONVILLE 1 3 3 138 138 CENTRAL POINT 8 25 3 2,837 355 ELGIN 3 6 2 604 201 Residential Customers 611 GOLD HILL 2 13 7 1,62
Slide 10: Timeline
Timeline Study • February – preliminary study results available • March – feedback from interested parties on results • April-May – finalize study to be filed on June 1st TVE Pilot • January – internal pilot development kick-off • February-July – pilot development & engagement with interested partie
Slide 11: TAC 5 and TAC 6 Topics
TAC 5 – Friday, February 20, 2026 (13:00 – 16:00 PST) Topic State Audience RCP 8.5 vs 4.5 Trends All E&G DER Forecast on Distribution System WA Electric (Distribution) New Electric Resource Options WA/ID Electric Wholesale Price Forecast – Deterministic WA/ID Electric Electrification Assumptions and
Slide 12: TAC 7 and TAC 8 Topics
TAC 7 – Wednesday, April 15, 2026 (13:00 – 16:00 PDT) Topic State Audience Energy Efficiency Savings Since 2025 IRP OR Gas Hybrid Heat Pump Program Update OR Gas Gas Avoided Cost All E&G Long-Run Load Forecast All E&G End-Use Load Forecast All E&G Wholesale Price Forecast – Stochastic WA/ID Electric
Slide 13: TAC 9 and TAC 10 Topics
TAC 9 – Friday, May 15, 2026 (13:00 – 16:00 PDT) Topic State Audience IRP Generation Option Transmission Planning Studies WA/ID Transmission Distribution System Planning within the IRP WA/ID Dist. Transmission Project Example Evaluation WA/ID Transmission QCC Forecast WA/ID Electric Gas Distribution
Slide 14: TAC 11 and TAC 12 Topics
TAC 11 Technical Modeling Workshop – Monday, June 15, 2026 (13:00 – 16:00 PDT) Topic State Audience PRiSM Model Tour All E&G Aurora Resource Adequacy Model Tour WA/ID Electric New Resource Cost Model All E&G TAC 12 Wednesday, July 15, 2026 (TDB) Topic State Audience Load & Resource Balance and Metho
Slide 15: TAC 13 and TAC 14 Topics
TAC 13 – Monday, August 17, 2026 (13:00 – 16:00 PDT) Topic State Audience Preferred Resource Strategy Results All E&G Oregon Non-Pipe Alternatives OR Gas Aldyl-A Analysis and Targeted Voluntary Electrification OR Gas IRP/Progress Report Outlines All E&G Next Steps All E&G TAC 14 – Thursday, Septembe
Slide 16: Other Key Dates
Electric Transmission & Distribution 5-Year Plan – October 7, 2026 (10:00 – 12:00 PDT) Topic State Audience Electric Trans Transmission & Distribution 5-Year Plan WA/OR Electric Other Key Dates • Oct 15, 2026 – Draft Electric IRP Released to TAC • Nov TBD 2026 – Virtual Public Meeting • Noon-1pm • 6
Slide 17: Carbon Capture Utilization and Sequestration
Carbon Capture Utilization and Sequestration 2027 IRP, Technical Advisory Committee Meeting No. 4 January 21, 2026 Robert Hughes – Resource Planning Analyst
Slide 18: What Is Carbon Capture Utilization and Sequestration?
What Is Carbon Capture Utilization and Sequestration? Compress Transport Store Capture Utilize? 2
Slide 19: Different Methods of Capture
Different Methods of Capture Post Combustion – using chemical solvents (amine) to absorb CO2 from flue gas after a fuel is burned Pre Combustion – converting the fuel to synthetic gas (hydrogen + oxygen) then react CO with steam to produce CO2 for separation Oxy Fuel Combustion – burn fuel in pure O
Slide 20: Post Combustion Capture Units
Post Combustion Capture Units Ravenna Italy CCS 4 Boundary Dam Carbon Capture Project Toshiba Starts Operation of Large-Scale Carbon Capture Facility | Ravenna Italy CCS
Slide 21: Post Combustion Capture and DAC
Post Combustion Capture and DAC Flue gas from combustion process must be cooled and “scrubbed” of amine degrading particulates like SOx and NOx. The result is a flue gas of CO2 concentration ranging from 3 to 10% Flue gas flows up an absorber stack while the liquid amine solvent flows down, reacting
Slide 22: Compression
Compression • Captured pure CO2 goes to a compressor to turn it from a gas to a liquid like state (supercritical fluid) 6
Slide 23: What Is Carbon Capture
What Is Carbon Capture 7 Carbon Capture | MIT Climate Portal
Slide 24: Transport
Transport • CO2 is moved to storage sites by truck or pipeline. Pilot programs and testing underway for liquid CO2 transport via ship 8
Slide 25: Storage
Storage • CO2 is injected deep underground into formations such as depleted oil and gas reservoirs, saline aquifers, coal seams. 9 Wyoming CARBSafe Project Class VI Well Permitting | Trihydro.
Slide 26: Sequestration
Sequestration EPA gives a rough timeline of 24 months to approve permit upon receiving Class VI application 10 CCS Class VI Wells Map – Clean Air Task Force Geologic Carbon Dioxide Sequestration Interactive Map | U.S. Geological Survey
Slide 27: Potential Sequestration Site In Washington
Potential Sequestration Site In Washington 11 Wallula Basalt Project | PNNL Geologic Carbon Sequestration | Department of Natural Resources
Slide 28: Using CO2
Using CO2 12 Four Applications of Carbon Capture and Utilization | BCG
Slide 29: Industry Examples of Post Combustion Carbon Capture
Industry Examples of Post Combustion Carbon Capture SaskPower CCS on Unit 3 at Petra Nova at WA Parish Boundary Dam* Generating Station in Texas* Several Front-End Engineering Design Studies of CCUS on Natural Gas Combined Cycle power plants: James M Barry Plant(AL), CalCapture Project(CA), Panda Sh
Slide 30: 2027 IRP Modeling Assumption (New Build)
2027 IRP Modeling Assumption (New Build) New Natural Gas CCCT w/ 95% CCS Cost considerations given our area: 1x1 H Frame Input Value Units Plant Size 500MW • On or near site sequestration could limit turbine location Heat Rate 7795*Btu/kW • Land requirements Parasitic Load 60MW • Water rights (8.1gp
Slide 31: 2027 IRP Modeling Assumption (Retrofit)
2027 IRP Modeling Assumption (Retrofit) Retrofit w/ 95% CCS Cost considerations given our area: Input Value Units Plant Size - MW Heat Rate Reduction 12% Btu/kW • On or near site sequestration could limit turbine location Parasitic Load 11% MW • Land requirements (roughly double power plant size) •
Slide 32: Carbon Capture and CETA (Washington)
Carbon Capture and CETA (Washington) Washington Clean Energy Transformation Act- RCW 19.405.020(27)(a) states : "Non-emitting electric generation" means electricity from a generating facility or a resource that provides electric energy, capacity, or ancillary services to an electric utility and that
Slide 33: Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas Market Overview TAC 4 – January 21, 2026 Jon Lee, Resource Planning Analyst
Slide 34: Wood Mackenzie disclaimer
Wood Mackenzie does not warrant or represent that the Information is appropriate or sufficient for your purposes and has not taken into account the purposes for which you are preparing the Document or using the Information and you acknowledge and agree that if you use or rely upon the Information fo
Slide 35: North America Natural Gas Outlook – Key Assumptions
North America Natural Gas Outlook – Key Assumptions 3 Source: Wood Mackenzie
Slide 36: North America Natural Gas At-a-Glance
North America Natural Gas At-a-Glance U.S./Canadian markets forecast to expand by 35% between 2025 and 2040 to ~180 bcfd 4 Source: Wood Mackenzie
Slide 37: North America Production Stabilizes ~175 bcfd by 2050
North America Production Stabilizes ~175 bcfd by 2050 Associated supply increases until the mid-2030s, while non-associated increases significantly after 2040 • RNG production capacity to grow from 0.5 bcfd in 2025 to around 3.8 bcfd by 2050 (~2.2% of supply) • Growth supported by low carbon policie
Slide 38: Renewable Natural Gas Production at 3.8 bcfd by 2050
Renewable Natural Gas Production at 3.8 bcfd by 2050 The slower growth in RNG production reflects delays in transport sector adoption in both the near and long term, but state decarbonization targets still support RNG development in the 2030s • FortisBC, one of Canada's largest utilities, has replac
Slide 39: Pipeline Additions Critical for Market Expansion
Pipeline Additions Critical for Market Expansion 45 bcfd of capacity additions projected by 2050 from both interstate and intrastate projects Key Dynamics • North American gas market expansion necessitates significant pipeline additions across regions (~45 bcfd of capacity) • Interstate development
Slide 40: Domestic Gas Demand Grows 24% vs. 2025 Before Peaking
Domestic Gas Demand Grows 24% vs. 2025 Before Peaking in early 2040 Gas demand in the power sector has been revised up to account for stronger power load growth from data centers and industrial reshoring while the renewable build-out is risked to the downside • Transport demand grows to 2.3 bcfd by
Slide 41: Share of Gas-Fired Generation to Reach 39% in the Mid-2030s
Share of Gas-Fired Generation to Reach 39% in the Mid-2030s Materially stronger power load forecast supports higher utilization of gas generation but availability of new gas turbines, delayed coal retirements and rising costs for new generation could risk gas burns to the downside 9 Source: Wood Mac
Slide 42: North America's LNG Export Capacity Could More than Double by 2029
North America’s LNG Export Capacity Could More than Double by 2029 Five additional LNG export projects in the United States have reached final investment decision (FID) in 2025 and are currently under construction with a combined export capacity of ~10 bcfd 10 Source: EIA Today in Energy
Slide 43: Higher Henry Hub Prices, More U.S. LNG, and Russian Gas Return
Higher Henry Hub Prices, More U.S. LNG, and Partial Return of Russian Gas Increase the Risk of U.S. Cargo Cancellations U.S. LNG underutilization represents less than 10% of total capacity and could be absorbed by a more positive demand response from lower global gas prices 11 Source: Wood Mackenzie
Slide 44: AECO Basis Deteriorates Long-term Despite LNG Exports
AECO Basis Deteriorates Long-term Despite LNG Exports, Signaling Persistent Pressure on Pipelined Exports Out of WCSB Lower-cost Canadian supply to maintain a stronghold on Pacific market, weighing on western basis prices 12 Source: Wood Mackenzie
Slide 45: Price Risks
Price Risks Upside and downside risk factors for North American prices across the outlook 13 Source: Wood Mackenzie
Slide 46: Natural Gas Price Forecast
Natural Gas Price Forecast TAC 4 – January 21, 2026 Jon Lee, Resource Planning Analyst
Slide 47: NYMEX Price Forecast Methodology Refinement
NYMEX Price Forecast Methodology Refinement Previous Methodology New Methodology • Shifting percent blend: • Maintain: • NYMEX natural gas futures (single settlement • Blended approach between various sources day) • 4 natural gas price inputs (NYMEX, EIA, 2 Consultants) • EIA Annual Energy Outlook •
Slide 48: Henry Hub Expected Case Price Forecast
Henry Hub Expected Case Price Forecast • Levelized Expected Case Price: $16.00 100% • 2028-2047: $5.71/MMBtu • 2028-2050: $5.97/MMBtu $14.00 • Data Sources: Weighted Percentage by Forecast Source $12.00 75% • 12-month history of NYMEX forward market prices as of January 12, 2026 $10.00 • EIA Annual
Slide 49: All Basins Expected Case Price Forecast
All Basins Expected Case Price Forecast $16.00 $14.00 $12.00 Levelized Price 2028 – 2047 2028 - 2050 ($/MMBtu) $10.00 Nominal $/MMBtu Henry Hub $5.71 $5.97 $8.00 AECO $3.99 $4.16 $6.00 Sumas $4.81 $4.99 Malin $4.76 $4.91 $4.00 Stanfield $4.49 $4.64 $2.00 $0.00 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Slide 50: Henry Hub Expected Case vs. Prior IRP Forecasts
Henry Hub Expected Case vs. Prior IRP Forecasts $16.00 • Slight backwardation to 2030 $14.00 before ramping up $12.00 • Production growth (associated and dry) $10.00 • Demand also increasing, so there is potential Nominal $/MMBtu for those forwards to move back into contango $8.00 • Increased upward
Slide 51: Cost of Carbon
Cost of Carbon TAC 4 – January 21, 2026 Michael Brutocao, Natural Gas Planning Manager
Slide 52: Social Cost of Carbon
Social Cost of Carbon • WUTC DOCKET U-190730 ORDER 06 – “Greenhouse gas emissions impact costs throughout the economy, and the broad measure of the BEA’s GDP price index thus appropriately reflects inflation of the cost of greenhouse gas emissions.” 2 https://apiproxy.utc.wa.gov/cases/GetDocument?do
Slide 53: Social Cost of Carbon - Forecast
Social Cost of Carbon - Forecast Levelized Price (2028-2047) $147.92 3
Slide 54: Community Climate Investment Credit
Community Climate Investment Credit • OAR 340-273-0820 (3) (b) – The CCI credit contribution amount is the applicable amount in Table 6 in OAR 340-273-9000… The formula for the adjustment is as follows: 𝐶𝑃𝐼 − 𝑈 𝑊𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝐽𝑎𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟 𝐶𝐶𝐼 𝐶𝑟𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑡…
Slide 55: Community Climate Investment Credit
Community Climate Investment Credit • OAR 340-273-0820 (1) – Each approved Community Climate Investment Entity must pay a fee to DEQ equal to 4.5% of all CCI contributions that the entity receives from covered fuel suppliers 5 https://secure.sos.state.or.us/oard/viewReceiptTRIM.action?ptId=10539175
Slide 56: Community Climate Investment Credit – Forecast
Community Climate Investment Credit – Forecast Levelized Price (2028-2047) $184.00 6
Slide 57: CCA Carbon Pricing
CCA Carbon Pricing • Allowance Auction Floor & Ceiling – increases annually by 5% + CPI-U from 2023 prices of $19.70 (floor) and $72.29 (ceiling) • Forecasts for IRP: • Expected (Linkage with California & Quebec carbon market in 2030) • No Linkage • Price at Ceiling 7 https://app.leg.wa.gov/WAC/defa
Slide 58: CCA Carbon Pricing – Forecast
CCA Carbon Pricing – Forecast Levelized Price Forecast (2028-2047) Expected $106.19 No Linkage $138.05 Price at Ceiling $214.86 8
Slide 59: Gas/Electric Interdependency and the Need for Coordination
Gas/Electric Interdependency and the Need for Coordination Avista IRP TAC 4 Meeting January 21, 2026 Scott Kinney, VP Energy Resources and Integrated Planning
Slide 60: An Energy System Under Increasing Strain
An Energy System Under Increasing Strain https://vimeo.com/1129668897/26e72509c9?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci 2
Slide 61: Regional Power Projection
Regional Power Projection Summer and Winter Peak Hour Projection Cumulative Regional Resource Need 3 Source: PNUCC 2025 Northwest Regional Forecast
Slide 62: Regional Natural Gas Projection
Regional Natural Gas Projection 4 Source: Northwest Gas Association
Slide 63: Direct Use of Natural Gas is Critical to Meeting Regional Energy Demand
Direct Use of Natural Gas is Critical to Meeting Regional Energy Demand Avista’s WA/ID Gas & Electric Demand January 14, 2024, 9am-10am (OR/WA): 500 450 Electric 400 Curtailed Electric 350 LDC Natural Gas MMBtu (000) 300 315 283 250 200 6 150 18 100 141 141 128 50 - 1/13/2024 12/22/2022 6/30/2021 Da
Slide 64: The Natural Gas and Power Systems are Interdependent
The Natural Gas and Power Systems are Interdependent Compressor Station Outages Average Regional Net Imports & Exports Jackson Prairie 6 Source: OASIS Transaction Schedules (scheduledetail), BPA Transmission Operations Data (AC Intertie Path data), Form EIA-930 Interchange data, CAISO OASIS.
Slide 65: Avista Gas Pressure Event – January 12-13, 2024
Avista Gas Pressure Event – January 12-13, 2024 • Friday morning Jan 12th – GTN lost 800 MDth in supply due to compressor station issues • Avista experienced low pressure on its Kellogg lateral that serves northern Idaho • To stabilize pressure Avista initiated a customer conservation request and to
Slide 66: Jackson Prairie Outage – January 13, 2024
Jackson Prairie Outage – January 13, 2024 Saturday afternoon Jan 13th - NWP lost all flow from JP Storage • Communications outage caused complete facility shut down • Facility free flow was achieved after about 90 minutes • Williams initiated mutual assistance with request for customers to reduce de
Slide 67: Gas Outage Events Show Need for Better Coordination
Gas Outage Events Show Need for Better Coordination May 2024 - Group of utilities met to discuss outage events and develop action plan 4 Action Items were approved Evaluate recent gas Create common Host winter and electric adequacy messaging to support Host an Energy preparation meeting evaluations
Slide 68: Gas/Electric Coordination is Critical to Serving Regional Energy Needs
Gas/Electric Coordination is Critical to Serving Regional Energy Needs • The region is dangerously close to experiencing significant energy supply disruption • Demand for energy in the PNW is projected to surge • The region is relying on capacity additions that are at risk of not being deployed • Ga
Slide 69: Coordination Efforts Continue
Coordination Efforts Continue…. Next areas of focus • Coordinated Planning • System visibility and data sharing • Regional energy infrastructure investment • Education and policy alignment 11
Slide 70: Q&A
Q&A 12