Elia Group Sa/nv · EURONEXT:ELI
Elia Group Sa/nv — Corporate Update (June 2023)
20 slides from Elia Group Sa/nv's corporate update, Jun 26, 2023
Slide 1: Federal grid losses compensation Outlook & percentage 2024
Federal grid losses compensation Outlook & percentage 2024 Users’ Group, WG Belgian Grid - 26/6/2023
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda 1. Outlook: evolution of the grid losses 2. Percentage for compensation in kind by BRPs in 2024
Slide 3: Outlook: Evolution of the grid losses towards 2030
Outlook : Evolution of the grid losses towards 2030
Slide 4: Outlook: Evolution of the grid losses towards 2030
Outlook: Evolution of the grid losses towards 2030 1. Methodology for losses computation 2. Evolution of grid losses 3. Evolution of Regional grid losses – Losses Repartition – Explanations 4. Evolution of Federal grid losses – Losses Repartition – Explanations 5. Summary of grid losses evolution Gr
Slide 5: Methodology for losses computation
Methodology for losses computation e.g. adeqFlex 2023 scenario New multi-year scenario e.g. 3RI2 Computation of losses based on elements Market simulation of characteristics hourly market actor position for a + standard climate Additional losses on year e.g. auxiliary load non-represented elements c
Slide 6: Evolution of Losses (Historical+Expected)
Evolution of grid losses Evolution of Losses (Historical+Expected) 2000 1500 GWh/year Federal grid - Expected Regional grid - Expected 1000 Federal grid - Historical Regional grid - Historical 500 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2
Slide 7: Regional grid losses - Repartition
Evolution of regional grid losses - Repartition Evolution of losses in the regional grid 600 500 400 Auxiliaries GWh/year Transformation towards MV 300 Transformation towards 70/36/30 kV Lines and cables MV Lines and cables 70/36/30 kV 200 100 0 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Grid losses 7
Slide 8: Regional grid losses – Explanations
Evolution of regional grid losses – Explanations Evolution of Total Load (Historical+Expected) 115,0 112,1 110,0 108,0 • The largest share of regional losses is to be 105,0 103,8 attributed to transformers towards medium voltage 99,7 100,0 • Losses are expected to grow in the regional grid due 95,7
Slide 9: Federal grid losses - Repartition
Evolution of federal grid losses - Repartition Evolution of losses in the federal grid 1800 1600 1400 1200 Auxiliaries SynCons 1000 GWh/year Shunt reactors Offshore 800 HVDC Transformation 380/220/150/110 kV 600 Lines and cables 380/220/150/110 kV 400 200 0 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Grid losses
Slide 10: Federal grid losses - Explanations
Evolution of federal grid losses - Explanations The elements contributing to the increase of the Federal Grid losses are: See next slides Expansion of Increasing of the number of • 400kV grid (Ventilus, Boucle du transformers Hainaut) & Increasing flows on existing • from 400kV to 220kV (offshore) •
Slide 11: Federal grid losses – New corridors and HTLS capacities
Evolution of federal grid losses – Explanations – New corridors and HTLS capacities are used by the market – Monotone of transported energy over distance at 400kV 2023 • The new corridors (BdH and Ventilus) Power on grid element [MW] x 2025 length of grid element [km] as well as HTLS reinforced corr
Slide 12: Federal grid losses – Expansion of grid offshore
Evolution of federal grid losses – Explanations – Expansion of grid offshore with large loading factor – Monotone of transported energy over distance at 220 kV • The connection of offshore wind 2023 through 220kV cables leads to a Power on grid element [MW] x significant increase of the transported
Slide 13: Summary of grid losses evolution
Summary of grid losses evolution • The total annual losses are expected to grow by almost 40% between 2022 and 2027. Federal losses are expected to grow by 63% between 2022 and 2027 and regional losses by about 1%. Total annual load is expected to grow by almost 18% between today and 2027. • Main dr
Slide 14: Percentage for compensation in kind by BRPs in 2024
Percentage for compensation in kind by BRPs in 2024
Slide 15: Context
Context • The Code of Conduct (in the past it used to be the Federal Grid Code) provides in a compensation in kind by BRPs of the federal losses, further arranged in the T&C BRP • Note that the arrangements for situations with ‘multiple BRP at a single access point’ are planned to be adapted by the
Slide 16: Determination of the yearly percentage for compensation of federal grid losses
Determination of the yearly percentage for compensation of federal grid losses by BRPs on their net offtake Main drivers: • Estimation of the grid losses in year Y+1 (cf. methodology in previous slides) • Expected load evolution Complement: LT financial neutrality correction (+/-) to cover for BRPs’
Slide 17: Main drivers: estimated losses and load
Main drivers: estimated losses and load % ESTIMATED LOSSES: 2021 2022 2023 2024 Federal losses 918 838 900 1050 (in GWh) 2021 actuals 2022 actuals 2023 based on actuals 2024 based on scaled for Jan-Apr + scaled estimation estimation for May-Dec Observations: • It has been observed that 2021 and 2022
Slide 18: Long-term financial neutrality correction
Long-term financial neutrality correction % Evolution BRP compensationsurplus/deficit • 2022 resulted in a sharp increase of the deficit: (kEUR) • Volume effect: while at annual level the total volume was 20.000 rather well covered by BRPs, the deficit is explained by the fact that over- and underco
Slide 19: 2024 Percentage for BRP compensation in kind
2024 Percentage for BRP compensation in kind % 2021 2022 2023 2024 (partially (estimated) estimated) Federal losses (GWh) 918 838 900 1050 Compensation in-kind in GWh (*) 837 840 996 1116 Peak coefficient % 1,35% 1,45% 1,80% 1,95% Offpeak coefficient % 1,35% (*) Cumulative annual volume. A good matc
Slide 20: Thank you.
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