Nomura Holdings, Inc. · TSE:8604
Nomura — Nomura Investment Forum 2006
59 slides from Nomura's conference presentation, Dec 4, 2006
Slide 1: Presentation to Nomura Investment Forum 2006
Presentation to Nomura Investment Forum 2006 2006 12 4 CEO 12 4 2006 12 4 10 0
Slide 2: 1
1
Slide 3: I II III
I II III 4 IV V VI 2
Slide 4: I CEO
I 2006 CEO 9 2700 3
Slide 5: CEO M&A
1989 100 66 300 250 2002 142.4% 2003 69.6% 2004 19.9% 200 2005 20.5% 2006 7.3% 150 NOMURA400 2007 13.4% 100 50 0 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 2002 02 2005 05 ( )2006 2006 11 9 ( ) CEO M&A 4
Slide 6: II
II 5
Slide 7: CEO
2 30% 30% 2.1 CEO 2 6
Slide 8: ROE
ROE10 ROE10 15% 15% 10 500 55 ROE ROE 25% ROE 400 20% 15.5% 300 15% 10.1% 200 10% 7.4% 6.1% 100 5% 5.2% 0 0% FY2003.3 FY2004.3 FY2005.3 FY2006.3 FY2007.3 1H ×2 -100 -5% 1 FY2007.3 FY2007.3 2 FY2007.3 ROE FY2007.3 ROE 6.1 ROE10 15 7
Slide 9: ROE
44 44 ROE ROE 10 10 400 200 20% 300 150 15% 200 100 10% 100 50 5% 0 0 FY2003.3 FY2004.3 FY2005.3 FY2006.3 FY2007.3 FY2003.3 FY2004.3 FY2005.3 FY2006.3 FY2007.3 1H ×2 1H ×2 -100 -50 0% 1 FY2007.3 FY2007.3 2 FY2007.3 ROE FY2007.3 5 4 5 4 1 5 4 8
Slide 10: III
III 4 4 9
Slide 11: SMA
10 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 FY2003.3 FY2004.3 FY2004.3 FY2005.3 FY2005.3 FY2006.3 FY2006.3 FY2007.3 FY2010.3 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 6.0 120 100 5.0 100 4.4 81 78 2010 3 4.0 69 80 100 61 3.0 55 57 3.0 48 60 41 2.0 2.3 40 2.2 2.3 2.3 1.0 20 1.2 0.8 0.0 0 FY2003.3 FY2004.3 FY2004.3 FY2005.3 FY2005.
Slide 12: MPO MBO
10 120 GIB GIB 100 80 M&A 60 FY2007.3 FY2003.3 FY2004.3 FY2005.3 FY2006.3 (1H) 40 (%) 19% 23% 49% 27% 27% 20 2 3 1 1 1 0 FY2003.3 FY2004.3 FY2005.3 FY2006.3 FY2007.3 (1H) M&A 108 126 132 134 67 2.5 - MPO/HPO 2.0 FY2007.3 PO/IPO/CB/REIT FY2003.3 FY2004.3 FY2005.3 FY2006.3 (1H) 1.5 7,243 14,054 13,571
Slide 13: Merchant banking (GMB)
10 100 GMB GMB 80 60 40 20 0 FY2003.3 FY2004.3 FY2005.3 FY2006.3 FY2007.3 (1H) -20 10 GMB GMB ** 300 * 250 200 z 2,500 3,000 150 100 z IRR20 3~5 50 0 FY2003.3 FY2004.3 FY2005.3 FY2006.3 FY2007.3 (1H) 2002 3 2,500 3,000 2,000 12
Slide 14: Asset Management
10 80 AM AM 60 40 20 0 FY2003.3 FY2004.3 FY2005.3 FY2006.3 FY2007.3 (1H) 30.0 25.0 23 23 AM 20.0 18 18 16 15.0 10.0 7.7 6.9 4.5 4.4 5.0 3.2 0.0 FY2003.3 FY2004.3 FY2005.3 FY2006.3 FY2007.3 (1H) 1 5 1 9 13
Slide 15: IV
IV 14
Slide 16: 3
3 15
Slide 17: 1
1 16
Slide 18: FY2007.3 1H 3,400 FY2007.3 1H 4,800 FY2007.3 1H 3,600
1 FY2007.3 1H 3,400 FY2007.3 1H 4,800 FY2007.3 1H 3,600 2000 2004 17
Slide 19: 2
2 18
Slide 20: MPO HPO NCI
2 MPO HPO HD 2.1 z MPO 3,000 G 1.1 z HPO II 2,000 CG 0.9 NCI UFJ 0.7 0.4 z MBO 60 z R&I S&P AA- HD TOB A C 1,700 A+ UFJ UFJ z A- HD A G G 300 BBB+ CG C CG C z DA 2006 10 2007 3 212.5 MPO HPO 5 NCI LBO 1 MBO TOB 1,700 19
Slide 21: 3
3 3 20
Slide 22: FSA
3 Instinet FSA IT 2005 3 FSA 21
Slide 23: Instinet
3 Instinet z z 1,500 z 29 z 31 50 The Best Execution Venue for Nasdaq-listed stocks Celent 2006 No.1 The Leading Agency Broker Institutional Investor The Best Execution Quality for Block Trading 2006 Plexus BrokerEDGE Monitor “Execution Quality in the U.S. Equities Markets,”December 2005. “Cost Cons
Slide 24: Global Markets
10 GM GM 400 300 200 100 0 FY2002.3 FY2003.3 FY2004.3 FY2005.3 FY2006.3 FY2007.3 (1H) z z z z z MPO HPO z z z J-REIT z z 23
Slide 25: V
V 24
Slide 26: IPO4.3 US IT
z z z z z z 1 IPO4.3 US IT 1800 25
Slide 27: VI
VI 26
Slide 28: NCI
5 5 5 z z z z MoMs z z z Nomura America Mortgage Finance z z New Energy & Clean Technology Ventures z & 5 NCI 27
Slide 29: IPO/PO
2006 11 2007 2 IPO/PO 2006 5 5 7 10 1 28
Slide 30: FY2004.3 FY2004.3 FY2005.3 FY2005.3 FY2006.3 FY2006.3 FY2007.3
10 180 160 FA 140 FA3,000 120 z3 1,948 11 2,224 100 FY2004.3 FY2004.3 FY2005.3 FY2005.3 FY2006.3 FY2006.3 FY2007.3 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 10 50-100 55 z3 134 11 157 50 45 40 35 1,000 30 z3 600 9 700 25 FY2004.3 FY2004.3 FY2005.3 FY2005.3 FY2006.3 FY2006.3 FY2007.3 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H IT 29
Slide 31: DOE 3.0%
1 30% DOE 3.0 DOE 3.0% 30 ROE 2007 3 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 3 32 30% 2 30
Slide 32: Nomura Investment Forum 2006 Appendix
Nomura Investment Forum 2006 Appendix 31
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Slide 34: 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1 80 2 3
45,000 2 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 4 20,000 15,000 1 3 10,000 5,000 0 1 80 2 3 4 328 932 1,368 1,499 13.8% 23.2% 5.8% 10.9% 1.3% 1.7% 1.7% 2.2% 1.3% 4.1% 2.1% 3.7% 1980. 1989. 2003. 2006. 3 59.3% 3 44.0% 3 56.7% 51.6% 6 13.2% 27.6% 26.4% 17.9% 33
Slide 35: FRB
2006 6 1,499 39.8 10.9% 31.3% 2.2% 7.8% 3.7% 13.8% 13.3% 2006. 2006. 6 51.6% 6 30.8% 26.4% FRB 34
Slide 36: 33 24 191 192 200 34 182 177 182 173 29 174 173 176
300 271 16 258 253 236 17 250 38 229 34 19 38 23 208 202 184 33 24 191 192 200 34 182 177 182 173 29 174 173 176 56 21 27 161 29 28 31 30 153 32 23 32 29 28 26 137 23 34 26 130 150 28 27 28 22 28 25 25 34 38 108 22 26 30 23 99 14 217 203 19 184 28 100 72 17 12 172 164 152 54 61 62 12 10 140 144 130
Slide 37: MMF
1989 12 2000 6 2006 10 45,000 45.5 60.5 51.1 64.1 70 40,000 60 35,000 50 30,000 MMF 25,000 40 20,000 30 15,000 20 10,000 10 5,000 0 0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 36
Slide 38: (% ) 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 1986 1987 1988 89
(% ) 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 FY 37
Slide 39: GDP M&A
GDP M&A M&A M&A // GDP GDP GDP GDP (%) ( 10 ) 14.0 14,000 12.0 12,000 10.0 10,000 8.0 8,000 6.0 6,000 4.0 4,000 2.0 2,000 0.0 0 CY2001 CY2002 CY2003 CY2004 CY2005 lia ce SA K n da pa U ra an a U Ja an t Fr us IMF C A 38
Slide 40: D/E ROE
D/E ROE NOMURA400 ROE D/E 15.0 300 FY07(f) 10.4% 10.0 200 D/E D/E % % ROE ROE % % 5.0 100 FY06(f) 75% 0.0 0 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 f f FY 39
Slide 41: T OPIX T OPIX S&P
1985 1 100 1997 1 100 1985 1985 10 10 1800 350 T OPIX T OPIX S&P 1600 S&P NASDAQ NASDAQ 300 FT SE100 FT SE100 1400 250 1200 ST ST 200 1000 800 150 600 100 400 50 200 0 0 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 40
Slide 42: 1980 1980 ** 70,000 6,000 5,437 65,000 (87/04) 5,500 60,000 5,000 55,000 4,500 50,000
1980 1980 ** 70,000 6,000 5,437 65,000 (87/04) 5,500 60,000 5,000 55,000 4,500 50,000 4,000 3,350 45,000 (00/03) 3,500 40,000 2,420 3,000 2,350 (94/05) 35,000 (96/03) 2,500 1,895 (04/03) 30,000 2,000 25,000 1,500 787 1,480 20,000 578 1,210 (95/06) 1,300 1,000 (84/03) 1,181 287 (81/07) (92/03) (04/10
Slide 43: 42
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Slide 44: A B C
2006 2006 99 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 A B C 43
Slide 45: 1,600 1,499 1,400 1,368 +108% 6.8 0 1,200 23 56 28 60 +46% 1,000
1,600 90 1,499 76 1,400 1,368 77 80 86 164 +108% 6.8 79 34 70 1,200 23 56 28 60 +46% 1,000 396 377 +96% 50 45.6 800 41 40 8.1 600 +167% 30 17.1 400 775 774 20 13.4 +57% 200 8.5 10 3.5 3.7 7.5 3.3 +126% 0 0 2003.3 2003/3 2006.6 2006/6 2003.3 2003/3 2006.6 2006/6 44
Slide 46: FA3,000 50-100 1,000 1,948 2,224 00 25 FY2003.3 FY2003.3 20 15 20 10 5
FA3,000 50-100 1,000 3 1,948 11 2,224 3 134 11 157 3 600 9 700 25 FY2003.3 FY2003.3 20 15 20 10 5 0 FY2003.3 FY2003.3 FY2004.3 FY2004.3 FY2005.3 FY2005.3 FY2006.3 FY2006.3 FY2007.3 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 45
Slide 47: 9 GT (Big Project-N) US
2000 2000 33 2006 2006 10 10 3 3 4 35 36 90 9 20 10 10 1 (Big Project-N) 1,089 1 6 1,066 2 433 2 225 456 3 313 3 (Big Project-N) 338 4 181 4 316 5 109 5 280 6 100 6 253 7 300 97 7 US 246 8 84 8 243 9 GT 82 9 213 10 78 10 GS 195 2,566 3,606 46
Slide 48: bps FY2002.3 FY2003.3
100 bps 10 120 600 100 5,000 100 500 80 400 60 300 52 61 56 55 100 50 52 40 81 78 200 61 55 20 44 41 100 0 0 FY2002.3 FY2003.3 FY2004.3 FY2005.3 FY2006.3 FY2007.3 FY2010.3 (1H) FY2007.3 FY2007.3 47
Slide 49: 48
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Slide 50: Instinet
Instinet Instinet z z 1969 z 12 z z 1,500 z Execution Management System 31 50 z 605 2006 4 z 1500 IT IT z 1993 z 31 50 1.89 / 103 3.7 2006 2 10.78 US / 68 4 6 5.86 US / 119 2.0 49
Slide 51: NCI
NCI 10 1,200 1,150 z z M&A 1,000 z 850 z & 800 z B/S 600 500 z 420 400 400 z z 220 200 z 53 28 0 FY2006.3 FY2007.3 FY2008.3 FY2009.3 50
Slide 52: 51
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Slide 53: GIB
2006 GIB M&A 66 4,803 HPO 2,000 77 1,399 MPO 3,000 88 IPO 918 FA 969 FA TOB 2,500 MBO 99 GMB IPO 1,645 CB 2,000 TOB FA TOB NCI 10 10 2,063 FA NCI 2,960 11 11 FA TOB 1,900 1,800 52
Slide 54: 53
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Slide 55: GMB
GMB 10 600.0 503.3 500.0 457.6 439.1 400.0 375.7 301.6 300.0 208.5 200.0 132.1 84.5 98.7 100.0 35.9 0.0 FY2003.3 FY2004.3 FY2005.3 FY2006.3 FY2007.3(1H) 20.1 68.9 108.4 59.9 174.7 15.9 15.6 23.7 38.8 33.8 35.9 84.5 132.1 98.7 208.5 265.7 291.2 325.5 340.4 294.9 301.6 375.7 457.6 439.1 503.3 1 NPF NF
Slide 56: GMB
GMB 10 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 FY2003.3 FY2004.3 FY2005.3 FY2006.3 FY2007.3 (1H) 10 300 GMB YMC MBO NEC 250 MBO 200 MBO 150 MBO MBO 100 50 0 FY2003.3 FY2004.3 FY2005.3 FY2006.3 FY2007.3 (1H) 55
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Slide 58: FY2003.3 FY2004.3 FY2005.3 FY2006.3 FY2006.3 FY2007.3 (1H) (1H)
25 ** 4.0 ** 3.0 3.2 3.0 20 2.4 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.4 15 0.7 0.0 FY2003.3 FY2004.3 FY2005.3 FY2006.3 FY2006.3 FY2007.3 (1H) (1H) 8.0 ** 10 7.7 6.0 6.9 5.0 5 4.0 4.5 4.4 3.2 2.0 0 FY2003.3 FY2004.3 FY2005.3 FY2006.3 FY2006.3 FY2007.3 0.0 (1H) (1H) FY2003.3 FY2004.3 FY2005.3 FY2006.3 FY2006.3 FY2007.3 * (1H
Slide 59: NAM
** 10 NAM NAM 500 50.0 10% NAM 6 NAM 400 40.0 8% 2,900 2,900 ** 300 30.0 6% 65 65 200 20.0 4% 100 10.0 2% 0.8 0.9 1.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0 0.0 0% 2005/11/18 2006/02/10 2006/5/2 2006/07/28 2006/10/20 2005/3 2005/6 2005/9 2005/12 2006/3 2006/6 2006/9 *2006 11 10 * MMF 58