Slide 1: 2027 Electric and Natural Gas Integrated Resource Plans TAC Meeting No. 8 Agenda
2027 Electric and Natural Gas Integrated Resource Plans Technical Advisory Committee Meeting No. 8 Agenda Monday, April 20, 2026 Virtual Meeting – 1:00 pm to 4:00 pm Pacific Time Topic State Audience • Introduction and Questions from TAC 7 • Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential All E&G Me
Slide 2: Introductions 2027 Electric & Gas Integrated Resource Planning
Introductions 2027 Electric & Gas Integrated Resource Planning TAC 8 – April 20, 2026 John Lyons, Ph.D. – Senior Resource Policy Analyst
Slide 3: TAC 8 Agenda
TAC 8 Agenda • Introduction and Questions from TAC 7 • Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Methodology and Assumptions • Demand Response Potential Assessments by State • Energy Efficiency Potential Assessments by State 2
Slide 4: Meeting Guidelines
Meeting Guidelines • IRP team is in office Monday – Wednesday; also available by email, phone and Teams for questions and comments • Stakeholder feedback responses shared with TAC at meetings, in Teams and in Appendix • Working IRP data posted to Teams • All TAC meetings will be virtual on Teams • D
Slide 5: Virtual TAC Meeting Reminders
Virtual TAC Meeting Reminders • Please mute mics unless speaking or asking a question • Raise hand or use the chat box for questions or comments • Respect the pause • Please try not to speak over the presenter or a speaker • Please state your name before commenting for the note taker • This is a pub
Slide 6: TAC 9 – Friday, May 15, 2026
TAC 9 – Friday, May 15, 2026 (13:00 – 16:00 PDT) Topic State Audience IRP Generation Option Transmission Planning Studies WA/ID Transmission Distribution System Planning within the IRP WA/ID Dist. Transmission Project Example Evaluation WA/ID Transmission QCC Forecast WA/ID Electric Gas Distribution
Slide 7: TAC 10 and TAC 11 Schedule
TAC 10 – Wednesday, May 27, 2025 (9:00 – 12:00 PDT) Topic State Audience CEIP Update WA Electric CETA Interim/Energy Compliance Report WA Electric Load Forecast Update All E&G TAC 11 Technical Modeling Workshop – Monday, June 15, 2026 (13:00 – 16:00 PDT) Topic State Audience PRiSM Model Tour All E&G
Slide 8: TAC 12 and TAC 13 Schedule
TAC 12 Wednesday, July 15, 2026 (13:00 – 16:00 PDT) Topic State Audience Load & Resource Balance and Methodology WA/ID Electric Loss of Load Probability WA/ID Electric WRAP Update WA/ID Electric Draft Preferred Resource Strategy Results All E&G ETO Energy Savings OR Gas TAC 13 – Monday, August 17, 2
Slide 9: TAC 14 and Transmission & Distribution 5-Year Plan
TAC 14 – Thursday, September 17, 2026 (13:00 – 16:00 PDT) Topic State Audience Portfolio Scenario Analysis All E&G Avoided Cost All Electric Resource Adequacy Results WA/ID Electric CBI Forecast and Results/Energy Burden WA/OR E&G Final Report Overview and Comment Plan All E&G Action Items All E&G E
Slide 10: Other Key 2027 IRP Dates
Other Key 2027 IRP Dates • Oct 15, 2026 – Draft Electric IRP Released to TAC • Nov TBD 2026 – Virtual Public Meeting • Noon-1pm • 6-7pm • Jan 1, 2027 – Final Electric IRP Filed • Feb 15, 2027 – Draft Gas IRP Released to TAC • Apr 1, 2027 – Final Gas IRP Filed 9
Slide 11: Avista 2028-2050 Electric and Gas Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential – Draft Results
Avista 2028-2050 Electric and Gas Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential– DRAFT RESULTS April 20, 2026 Draft Results
Slide 12: Agenda
Agenda 1. Introduction 2. Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Potential Methodology and Key Assumptions 3. Idaho Electric Demand Response Potential 4. Washington Electric Demand Response Potential 5. Idaho Energy Efficiency Potential (Electric and Gas) 6. Oregon Energy Efficiency Potential (Gas On
Slide 13: Introduction
Introduction Draft Results
Slide 14: Presentation Objectives
Presentation Objectives • Methodology and key data assumptions for developing Avista potential estimates • The technical and achievable potential for energy efficiency measures to reduce electric and gas loads through 2050 in Meeting participants Avista service territory in ID, OR, and WA understand
Slide 15: Methodology and Key Assumptions
Methodology and Key Assumptions Draft Results
Slide 16: Energy Efficiency Potential Overview
Energy Efficiency Potential Overview PERIOD S TAT E S 2028 to 2050 Idaho and Washington: electric and gas (all sectors, segments, end-uses) Oregon: gas low income and transportation only S E C TO R S MEASURES Residential, commercial, industrial buildings Aligned with Power Council 9th Plan T Y P E S
Slide 17: Energy Efficiency Potential Model Overview
Energy Efficiency Potential Model Overview Modeling Approach Energy and Demand Forecast Hourly, annually, by segment, end use, states 1. Estimate load forecast at end-use % End use savings for each Applicable and technically Technical Potential measure feasible building stock Hourly Technical 2. Ide
Slide 18: Key Input Data and Assumptions
Key Input Data and Assumptions Codes and All federal equipment standards with final rulings (Department of Energy). Standards Accounts for current state energy codes using baselines consistent the 9th Power Plan Electric characteristics aligned with the preliminary Council’s 9th Power Plan analysis.
Slide 19: Energy Efficiency Measures
Energy Efficiency Measures Heat – Electric, Heat – Gas Boiler, Heat – Gas Forced Air Furnace (FAF), Heat – Gas FAF (Poor Ducts), Heat – Gas Rooftop Unit (RTU), Heat – Electric Forced Air Furnace (eFAF), Heat – Heat Pump, Ductless Heat Pump, Heat Room – Electric Resistance (ER), Heat Room – Gas, Cool
Slide 20: Demand Response Potential Model Overview
Demand Response Potential Model Overview Modeling Approach Energy and Demand Forecast Hourly, by segment, end use, state, and program season 1. Estimate load forecast at end-use 2. Characterize feasible DR products (applicable end-use load, per- kW or % end use demand Applicable end-use loads unit i
Slide 21: Demand Response Key Input Data and Assumptions
Demand Response Key Input Data and Assumptions DR Product Demand response product characteristics aligned with Avista sources (vendor quotes, program Impacts, Costs, evaluations, etc.) or with Power Council 9th Plan results, where necessary Eligibility, and Participation NWPCC Demand Response Adviso
Slide 22: Demand Response Products
Demand Response Products AC Switch, Battery (New Adoption), Battery (BYO), Thermostat (BYO), ER Water Heater (Switch), ER Water Residential Heater (Grid Connected), HP Water Heater (Grid Connected), Electric Vehicle (TOU + DLC), Peak Time Rebates, Time of Use Small Commercial AC Switch, Medium Comme
Slide 23: Idaho Demand Response Potential
Idaho Demand Response Potential Draft Results
Slide 24: Idaho 5-Year DR Potential (2032)
ELECTRIC Idaho 5-Year DR Potential (2032) ID Summer ID Winter Discussion / Findings* Comm. EV TOU • Within 5-year time horizon, residential Resi. Heat Pump Water Heater AC switch, switch-controlled electric Comm. PTR resistance water heaters, TOU, and PTR Industrial Curtailment programs have greates
Slide 25: Idaho Long-term DR Potential (2050)
ELECTRIC Idaho Long-term DR Potential (2050) ID Summer ID Winter Discussion / Findings Comm. EV TOU • In long-run significant growth in Comm. PTR achievable potential from residential EV Resi. Heat Pump Water Heater charging and grid-connected electric Industrial Curtailment resistance water heaters
Slide 26: Idaho DR Product 5-Year Levelized Costs ($/kW)
ELECTRIC Idaho DR Product 5-Year Levelized Costs ($/kW) Resi. PTR Discussion / Findings Med. Comm. AC Switch • Costs estimates include 5-year Resi. ER Water Heat (Grid Connected) amortized capital and operating costs Comm. Curtailment using 10% capital recovery factor (CRF). Resi. Thermostat (BYO) A
Slide 27: Idaho DR Product 5-Year Supply Curve
ELECTRIC Idaho DR Product 5-Year Supply Curve Discussion / Findings • 15-20 MW of DR capacity is available at competitive cost, at or below $250/kw- year. • Costs higher for products with low potential, reflecting fixed costs are spread over a small impact base. Examples include: • Commercial PTR •
Slide 28: Washington Demand Response Potential
Washington Demand Response Potential Draft Results
Slide 29: Washington 5-Year DR Potential (2032)
ELECTRIC Washington 5-Year DR Potential (2032) WA Summer WA Winter Discussion / Findings Resi. ER Water Heater (Switch) • Within 5-year time horizon, residential Resi. Heat Pump Water Heater AC switch and grid-connected electric Comm. PTR resistance water heater programs Small Comm. AC Switch provid
Slide 30: Washington Long-term DR Potential (2050)
ELECTRIC Washington Long-term DR Potential (2050) WA Summer WA Winter Discussion / Findings Resi. ER Water Heater (Switch) • In the long-run there is significant Comm. PTR growth in achievable potential from Resi. Heat Pump Water Heater residential EV charging and grid- Industrial Curtailment connec
Slide 31: Washington DR Product 5-Year Levelized Costs ($/kW)
ELECTRIC Washington DR Product 5-Year Levelized Costs ($/kW) Comm. EV TOU Discussion / Findings Resi. ER Water Heat (Grid Connected) • Costs estimates include 5-year Med. Comm. AC Switch amortized capital and operating costs Resi. EV TOU + DLC using a 10% capital recovery factor Comm. Curtailment (C
Slide 32: Washington DR Product 5-Year Supply Curve
ELECTRIC Washington DR Product 5-Year Supply Curve Discussion / Findings • 50 MW of DR capacity is available at competitive cost, at or below $250/kw- year. • Commercial EV TOU is low-cost opportunity. Residential costs are higher reflecting the added cost of the DLC component. • Grid connected wate
Slide 33: Break – 5 Minutes
Break – 5 Minutes Draft Results
Slide 34: Idaho Energy Efficiency Potential
Idaho Energy Efficiency Potential Draft Results
Slide 35: Idaho Electric Energy Efficiency Potential
ELECTRIC Idaho Electric Energy Efficiency Potential Cumulative Savings - GWh 2028 2033 2038 2043 2050 Discussion / Findings Achievable Technical Potential 55 214 317 384 447 Technical Potential 68 263 388 468 544 • Achievable Technical and Technical potential approximately 85% and 70% of previous st
Slide 36: Idaho Electric Residential End Uses
ELECTRIC Idaho Electric Energy Efficiency Potential Residential End Uses Discussion / Findings • Approximately 35% of residential potential in homes occupied by income- qualified customers • Early in study water heating, space heating, and heat pump upgrades have highest potential. In later years sp
Slide 37: Idaho Top Residential Measures in 2029
ELECTRIC Idaho Energy Efficiency Potential Idaho Top 10 Residential Measures in 2029: 2 Year Technical Achievable Potential 2029 Cumulative GWh % of Total 2029 TRC Levelized Cost UCT Levelized Cost 2029 Rank Measure / Technology 2050 Rank Savings Savings ($/kWh) ($/kWh) 1 Advanced Windows U-0.10 11.
Slide 38: Idaho Electric Commercial End Uses
ELECTRIC Idaho Electric Energy Efficiency Potential Commercial End Uses Discussion / Findings • Ventilation upgrades highest saving end use over study horizon • Not much lighting potential remaining • Space cooling savings grow relative to total savings as cooling loads increase over time 28 Draft R
Slide 39: Idaho Top Commercial Measures in 2029
ELECTRIC Idaho Energy Efficiency Potential Idaho Top 10 Commercial Measures in 2029: 2 Year Technical Achievable Potential 2029 Cumulative GWh % of Total 2029 TRC Levelized Cost UCT Levelized Cost 2029 Rank Measure / Technology 2050 Rank Savings Savings ($/kWh) ($/kWh) 1 Fans-NR-Commercial-CS->CS-La
Slide 40: Idaho Electric Industrial End Uses
ELECTRIC Idaho Electric Energy Efficiency Potential Industrial End Uses Discussion / Findings • HVAC and material processing upgrades highest energy savers in Idaho industries • Other miscellaneous end uses account for approximately 30% of remaining savings • Distribution of savings by end use drive
Slide 41: Idaho Top Industrial Measures in 2029
ELECTRIC Idaho Energy Efficiency Potential Idaho Top 10 Industrial Measures in 2029: 2 Year Technical Achievable Potential 2029 Cumulative GWh % of Total 2029 TRC Levelized Cost UCT Levelized Cost 2029 Rank Measure / Technology 2050 Rank Savings Savings ($/kWh) ($/kWh) 1 HVAC 1.4 29% 1 $0.07 $0.07 2
Slide 42: Idaho Energy Efficiency Potential: Supply Curve
ELECTRIC Idaho Energy Efficiency Potential: Supply Curve 32 Draft Results
Slide 43: Idaho Gas Energy Efficiency Potential
Gas Idaho Gas Energy Efficiency Potential Cumulative Savings - 10 Therms 2028 2033 2038 2043 2050 Discussion / Findings Achievable Technical Potential 282,566 1,519,344 2,189,898 2,577,505 2,994,939 Technical Potential 326,229 1,753,356 2,533,150 2,989,851 3,480,985 • As with electric, gas savings c
Slide 44: Idaho Gas Residential End Uses
Gas Idaho Gas Energy Efficiency Potential Residential End Uses Discussion / Findings • Approximately 30% of achievable potential in income-qualified households • While savings exist for other end-uses, most load reduction potential from measures that reduce space heat (including envelope, controls,
Slide 45: Idaho Top Residential Measures in 2029 (Gas)
Gas Idaho Energy Efficiency Potential Idaho Top 10 Residential Measures in 2029: 2 Year Technical Achievable Potential 2029 Cumulative 10 % of Total 2029 TRC Levelized Cost UCT Levelized Cost 2029 Rank Measure / Technology 2050 Rank Therms Savings Savings ($/10 Therms) ($/10 Therms) 1 Home Energy Ma
Slide 46: Idaho Gas Commercial End Uses
Gas Idaho Gas Energy Efficiency Potential Commercial End Uses Discussion / Findings • Measures that reduce gas consumption for space heat primary energy savers; water heat has some savings potential, cooking upgrades almost no savings 36 Draft Results
Slide 47: Idaho Gas Top Commercial Measures in 2029
Gas Idaho Gas Efficiency Potential Idaho Top 10 Commercial Measures in 2029: 2 Year Technical Achievable Potential 2029 Cumulative 10 % of Total 2029 TRC Levelized Cost UCT Levelized Cost 2029 Rank Measure / Technology 2050 Rank Therms Savings Savings ($/10 Therms) ($/10 Therms) 1 Tier 2 HRV Retrofi
Slide 48: Idaho Gas Industrial End Uses
Gas Idaho Gas Energy Efficiency Potential Industrial End Uses Discussion / Findings • Process heat end use with highest gas potential (includes improvements such as controls and custom projects) • Other end uses, including HVAC and boiler upgrades account for approximately 30% of remaining savings p
Slide 49: Idaho Gas Top Industrial Measures in 2029
Gas Idaho Gas Efficiency Potential Idaho Top 10 Industrial Measures in 2029: 2 Year Technical Achievable Potential 2029 Cumulative 10 % of Total 2029 TRC Levelized Cost UCT Levelized Cost 2029 Rank Measure / Technology 2050 Rank Therms Savings Savings ($/10 Therms) ($/10 Therms) 1 Custom Controls (G
Slide 50: Idaho Energy Efficiency Potential: Supply Curve
E L EGCaTsR I C Idaho Energy Efficiency Potential: Supply Curve 40 Draft Results
Slide 51: Oregon Energy Efficiency Potential
Oregon Energy Efficiency Potential Draft Results
Slide 52: Oregon Gas Energy Efficiency Potential
Gas Oregon Gas Energy Efficiency Potential Cumulative Savings – 10 Therms 2028 2033 2038 2043 2050 Discussion / Findings Achievable Technical Potential 85,082 457,380 626,497 691,048 730,973 Technical Potential 97,581 524,425 718,935 794,037 840,464 • Avista offers energy efficiency programs to tran
Slide 53: Oregon Gas Residential End Uses
Gas Oregon Gas Energy Efficiency Potential Residential End Uses Discussion / Findings • Measures reducing gas use for space heating primary savers, including envelope upgrades, Home Energy Management Systems, and equipment upgrades • Water heating end use has second most gas savings • Almost no gas
Slide 54: Oregon Top Residential Measures in 2029
Gas Oregon Energy Efficiency Potential Oregon Top 10 Residential Measures in 2029: 2 Year Technical Achievable Potential 2029 Cumulative 10 % of Total 2029 TRC Levelized Cost UCT Levelized Cost 2029 Rank Measure / Technology 2050 Rank Therms Savings Savings ($/10 Therms) ($/10 Therms) Single Family
Slide 55: Oregon Gas Commercial End Uses
Gas Oregon Gas Energy Efficiency Potential Commercial End Uses Discussion / Findings • Measures to reduce space heating fuel primary savers. These measures include heat recover ventilators, energy management systems, and building shell upgrades 45 Draft Results
Slide 56: Oregon Top Commercial Measures in 2029
Gas Oregon Gas Efficiency Potential Oregon Top 10 Commercial Measures in 2029: 2 Year Technical Achievable Potential TRC Levelized Cost UCT Levelized Cost 2029 Cumulative 10 2029 Rank Measure / Technology 2029 % of Total 2050 Rank (2026$ per 10 (2026$ per 10 Therms therms) therms) 1 Tier 2 HRV Retro
Slide 57: Oregon Gas Industrial End Uses
Gas Oregon Gas Energy Efficiency Potential Industrial End Uses Discussion / Findings • Process heat and boiler improvements primary energy savers. Measures include heat recovery, custom projects, and strategic energy management 47 Draft Results
Slide 58: Oregon Top Industrial Measures in 2029
Gas Oregon Gas Efficiency Potential Oregon Top 10 Industrial Measures in 2029: 2 Year Technical Achievable Potential TRC Levelized Cost UCT Levelized Cost 2029 Cumulative 10 2029 Rank Measure / Technology 2029 % of Total 2050 Rank (2026$ per 10 (2026$ per 10 Therms therms) therms) 1 Heat Recovery 11
Slide 59: Oregon Energy Efficiency Potential: Supply Curve
Gas Oregon Energy Efficiency Potential: Supply Curve 49 Draft Results
Slide 60: Break – 5 Minutes
Break – 5 Minutes Draft Results
Slide 61: Washington Energy Efficiency Potential
Washington Energy Efficiency Potential Draft Results
Slide 62: Washington Electric Energy Efficiency Potential
ELECTRIC Washington Electric Energy Efficiency Potential Cumulative Savings - GWh 2028 2033 2038 2043 2050 Discussion / Findings Achievable Technical Potential 100 397 580 691 790 Technical Potential 122 483 703 836 955 • Savings primarily concentrated in residential sector; homes account for approx
Slide 63: Washington Electric Residential End Uses
ELECTRIC Washington Electric Energy Efficiency Potential Residential End Uses Discussion / Findings • Approximately 60% of potential in Named Communities • Water heating measures primary savers in early years, in later years space conditioning measures have greater share potential • Federal HPWH sta
Slide 64: Washington Top Residential Measures in 2029
ELECTRIC Washington Energy Efficiency Potential Washington Top 10 Residential Measures in 2029: 2 Year Technical Achievable Potential 2029 Cumulative GWh % of Total 2029 TRC Levelized Cost UCT Levelized Cost 2029 Rank Measure / Technology 2050 Rank Savings Savings ($/kWh) ($/kWh) 1 Advanced Windows
Slide 65: Washington Electric Commercial End Uses
ELECTRIC Washington Electric Energy Efficiency Potential Commercial End Uses Discussion / Findings • Ventilation upgrades, such as efficient fans have highest potential for electric savings in near and long term • Other impactful measures include refrigeration and plug load upgrades • Not much light
Slide 66: Washington Top Commercial Measures in 2029
ELECTRIC Washington Energy Efficiency Potential Washington Top 10 Commercial Measures in 2029: 2 Year Technical Achievable Potential 2029 Cumulative GWh % of Total 2029 TRC Levelized Cost UCT Levelized Cost 2029 Rank Measure / Technology 2050 Rank Savings Savings ($/kWh) ($/kWh) 1 Fans-NR-Commercial
Slide 67: Washington Electric Industrial End Uses
ELECTRIC Washington Electric Energy Efficiency Potential Industrial End Uses Discussion / Findings • Industrial end uses have many diverse options for reducing energy load; fans, pumps, and compressed air account for approximately 33% of potential electric savings • Distribution of savings by end us
Slide 68: Washington Top Industrial Measures in 2029
ELECTRIC Washington Energy Efficiency Potential Washington Top 10 Industrial Measures in 2029: 2 Year Technical Achievable Potential 2029 Cumulative GWh % of Total 2029 TRC Levelized Cost UCT Levelized Cost 2029 Rank Measure / Technology 2050 Rank Savings Savings ($/kWh) ($/kWh) 1 Wastewater - Low C
Slide 69: Washington Energy Efficiency Potential: Supply Curve
ELECTRIC Washington Energy Efficiency Potential: Supply Curve 59 Draft Results
Slide 70: Washington Gas Energy Efficiency Potential
Gas Washington Gas Energy Efficiency Potential Cumulative Savings – 10 Therms 2028 2033 2038 2043 2050 Discussion / Findings Achievable Technical Potential 518,139 2,780,072 3,921,162 4,469,061 4,880,045 Technical Potential 598,403 3,205,544 4,533,675 5,186,770 5,679,130 • Approximately 70% of gas s
Slide 71: Washington Gas Residential End Uses
Gas Washington Gas Energy Efficiency Potential Residential End Uses Discussion / Findings • Approximately 50% of residential savings potential in Named Communities • Savings potential concentrated in equipment and building shell measures that reduce space heating load 61 Draft Results
Slide 72: Washington Top Residential Measures in 2029 (Gas)
Gas Washington Energy Efficiency Potential Washington Top 10 Residential Measures in 2029: 2 Year Technical Achievable Potential 2029 Cumulative 10 % of Total 2029 TRC Levelized Cost UCT Levelized Cost 2029 Rank Measure / Technology 2050 Rank Therms Savings Savings ($/10 Therms) ($/10 Therms) Single
Slide 73: Washington Gas Commercial End Uses
Gas Washington Gas Energy Efficiency Potential Commercial End Uses Discussion / Findings • Commercial savings primarily from reducing gas use for space heat; impactful measures include HRV, building shell improvements, and thermostats 63 Draft Results
Slide 74: Washington Gas Top Commercial Measures in 2029
Gas Washington Gas Efficiency Potential Washington Top 10 Commercial Measures in 2029: 2 Year Technical Achievable Potential 2029 Cumulative 10 % of Total 2029 TRC Levelized Cost UCT Levelized Cost 2029 Rank Measure / Technology 2050 Rank Therms Savings Savings ($/10 Therms) ($/10 Therms) 1 Roof Ins
Slide 75: Washington Gas Industrial End Uses
Gas Washington Gas Energy Efficiency Potential Industrial End Uses Discussion / Findings • Industrial savings potential primarily though process heat gas reduction and boiler upgrades 65 Draft Results
Slide 76: Washington Gas Top Industrial Measures in 2029
Gas Washington Gas Efficiency Potential Washington Top 10 Industrial Measures in 2029: 2 Year Technical Achievable Potential 2029 Cumulative 10 % of Total 2029 TRC Levelized Cost UCT Levelized Cost 2029 Rank Measure / Technology 2050 Rank Therms Savings Savings ($/10 Therms) ($/10 Therms) 1 Custom C
Slide 77: Washington Energy Efficiency Potential: Supply Curve
Gas Washington Energy Efficiency Potential 67 Draft Results
Slide 78: Thank You
Thank You Aquila Velonis Taylor Bettine Jeremy Eckstein Principal Technical Director Senior Associate Aquila.Velonis@cadmusgroup.com Taylor.Bettine@cadmusgroup.com Jeremy.Eckstein@cadmusgroup.com Draft Results