Agilon Health, Inc. · NYSE:AGL
Agilon Health — Q4 2023 Earnings Presentation
18 slides from Agilon Health's earnings presentation, Feb 27, 2024
Slide 1: 4Q Earnings Presentation February 2024
4Q Earnings Presentation February 2024 Copyright © 2023 agilon health. Confidential internal document containing proprietary information. Do not distribute.
Slide 2: Disclaimers and Forward-Looking Statements
2 Disclaimers and Forward-Looking Statements FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS AND OTHER INFORMATION Statements in this presentation that are not historical factual statements are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of th
Slide 3: Key Messages
3 Key Messages 2023 Results and 2024 Guidance Impacted by Acceleration in Medical Costs ▪ Completed analysis of updated payor data in mid-February, including relatively complete data from largest payors. Analysis indicated medical costs for our members were higher than previous estimates. ▪ Strength
Slide 4: 2023 Medical Margin Bridge - Change from Jan Guidance
4 2023 Medical Margin Bridge - Change from Jan 5 Guidance • $38M from higher costs and revenue attributed to 4Q23 • $11M from higher costs and revenue from prior periods Medical Margin Guidance Bridge for Full Year 2023 • Final revenue settlements and claims estimates $340M-360M Note: We have not re
Slide 5: 2024 Medical Margin Bridge
5 2024 Medical Margin Bridge Market Classes of 2018-2023 (Yr 2+) Note: We have not reconciled guidance for Medical Margin to Gross Profit or Adjusted EBITDA to net income (loss), the most comparable GAAP measures, and have not provided forward-looking guidance for net income (loss) in each case beca
Slide 6: 2022 - 2024 Adjusted EBITDA Bridge
6 2022 - 2024 Adjusted EBITDA Bridge Note: We have not reconciled guidance for Medical Margin to Gross Profit or Adjusted EBITDA to net income (loss), the most comparable GAAP measures, and have not provided forward-looking guidance for net income (loss) in each case because of the uncertainty aroun
Slide 7: Class of 2023 and Class of 2024 Details
7 Class of 2023 and Class of 2024 Details Class of 2024 (2024 Guidance) Class of 2023 (2023 Results) • Performance driven by: ▪ Longer implementation ▪ Historical VBC experience of partners ▪ Macro environment • MA Membership: ~145K • Medical Margin PMPM: ~$52 ▪ Compares prior estimate of ~$76 • Mar
Slide 8: Actions to Improve Performance, Balance Risk Sharing, and Enhance Predictability
Enhancing processes and systems to address market dynamics and drive accelerated performance in 2024 and beyond Actions to Improve Performance, Balance Risk Sharing, and Enhance Predictability Action Timing Details / Milestones Physician Onboarding & Continuous Education In-Process for 2024-2025+ ▪
Slide 9: Member Cohort and Market Class Margin Progression
9 Member Cohort and Market Class Margin Progression Member Cohorts Drive Long-term Earnings and Cash Flow Trajectory 2023 Member Cohort and Market Class Margin Progression Impacted by Elevated Costs ▪ Medical cost trends were above revenue benchmarks during 2023 and this is expected to continue in 2
Slide 10: Medical Margin PMPM by Member Cohorts
10 $133 $143 $226 $167 $198 $142 $36 $131 $136 $188 $157 $115 $94 $143 $160 $42 $80 $109 $72 $82 $25 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2018 Members 2019 Members 2020 Members 2021 Members 2022 Members 2023 Members Note 1: Reflects incurred results; Note 2: 2020 reflects COVID-19 impact; Note 3: Reflects
Slide 11: Market Class Margin Progression Details
11 Market Class Margin Progression Details Market Class Medical Margin Progression Includes Dilutive Impact from Growth: ▪ Over the past 6 years we have added >400 providers and >100,000 MA members to existing markets. New PCPs and members are typically dilutive in Year 1-2 and take time to mature o
Slide 12: Medical Margin PMPM by Market Class
12 $132 $142 $201 $114 $143 $106 $35 $86 $81 $108 $79 $146 $87 $147 $130 $54 $80 $96 $61 $89 $21 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Class 2018 Class 2019 Class 2020 Class 2021 Class 2022 Class 2023 Elevated Medical Cost Environment Relative to Revenue Benchmarks 2018: 12% 2019: 24% 2020: 15% 2021: 11% 20
Slide 13: Medical Margin PMPM by Market Class (Reported Results)
13 $132 $142 $201 $123 $143 $98 $35 $86 $91 $121 $62 $146 $107 $132 $128 $50 $101 $80 $61 $89 $21 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Class 2018 Class 2019 Class 2020 Class 2021 Class 2022 Class 2023 Elevated Medical Cost Environment Relative to Revenue Benchmarks Note 1: Reflects incurred results; Note 2
Slide 14: Financial Outlook for Fiscal Year 2024
14 Year Ending December 31, 2024 Medicare Advantage Members 540,000 – 550,000 ACO REACH Members 120,000 – 125,000 Total Members Live on Platform 660,000 – 675,000 Avg. Medicare Advantage Members 527,000 – 536,000 Total Revenues ($M) $6,350 – $6,465 Medical Margin ($M) $400 – $450 Adjusted EBITDA ($M
Slide 15: Financial Outlook for Q1 2024
15 Quarter Ending March 31, 2024 Medicare Advantage Members 520,000 – 530,000 ACO REACH Members 125,000 – 130,000 Total Members Live on Platform 645,000 – 660,000 Avg. Medicare Advantage Members 516,000 – 525,000 Total Revenues ($M) $1,605 – $1,630 Medical Margin ($M) $155 – $170 Adjusted EBITDA ($M
Slide 16: Non-GAAP Reconciliations
16 Non-GAAP Reconciliations
Slide 17: Non-GAAP Reconciliations: Medical Margin
17 Non-GAAP Reconciliations (Dollars in thousands) Year Ended December 31, 2023 2022 Gross profit(1) $ 69,670 $ 111,360 Other operating revenue (9,013) (3,331) Other medical expenses 238,034 183,000 Medical margin 298,691 291,029 1) Gross profit is defined as total revenues less medical services exp
Slide 18: Non-GAAP Reconciliations: Adjusted EBITDA
18 Non-GAAP Reconciliations (Dollars in thousands) Year Ended December 31, 2023 2022 Net income (loss)(1) $ (262,803) $ (106,864) (Income) loss from discontinued operations, net of income taxes 67,550 14,554 Interest expense 6,658 4,484 Income tax expense (benefit) 791 1,640 Depreciation and amortiz