Bhp Group Ltd · ASX:BHP
Bhp — BHP Billiton — UBS Australian Resources Conference 2004
14 slides from Bhp's conference presentation, Jun 30, 2004
Slide 1: Seaborne Energy Coal – Continuing Growth
Seaborne Energy Coal – Continuing Growth June 30, 2004 UBS Australian Resources Conference – Sydney Mike Henry – Vice President, Business Development, Energy Coal 1
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer The views expressed here contain information derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. Any forward looking information in this presentation ha
Slide 3: Fossil fuels a major part of the global energy market
Fossil fuels a major part of the global energy market Global Energy market 384EJ pa* By Industry Sector Power Industrial & Power Industrial & Generation Gas Commercial Coal Generation Commercial Coal 40% 30% Gas Oil Oil Oil Other Transport 3% Losses 19% Transport 8% EJ EJ ==1,000 1,000PJPJ ˜˜ 11tcf
Slide 4: Coal competitive for existing and new build power
Coal competitive for existing and new build power Existing coal plant competitive in dispatch New build coal competitive, conventional power gen significantly cheaper than renewables 50 + Capital 40 100 SRMC ($/MWh) LRMC ($/MWh) 30 75 20 50 10 25 0 0 Nuclear Gas Coal IGCC (Coal) Hydro Nuclear Gas Co
Slide 5: Coal is abundant and wide spread
Coal is abundant and wide spread Russia Europe 147 bt China 223 bt 52 bt North 96 bt America 82 bt Indonesia 3 bt Latin India 55 bt America 22 bt Africa 45 bt Australia Legend Sub- bituminous Bituminous Total World 897 bt 5 Source: IEA Statistics – Coal Information 2003, Proven Recoverable Reserves,
Slide 6: Coal technology continuing to evolve
Coal technology continuing to evolve Efficiency of Coal-Based Power Technology continues to lower costs 80 50 60 40 Efficiency (%) LRMC ($/MWh) 40 30 20 20 10 0 1900 1950 2000 2020 0 Ultra Super-critical with Super-critical with FGD & IGCC (Coal) Sub-critical with FGD & Coal Technology Roadmap FGD &
Slide 7: Coal has a future
Coal has a future Cons Electricity and generation fuel demand CAGR 1999 = 100 (1999-2020) • Climate change issues 220 Market Share 3.8% • Gas perceived as being a ‘clean’ fuel 200 Coal Gas Gas Pros 180 1999 36% 18% 2.7% Electricity • Competitive 160 2020 32% 26% • Abundant, stable supply 140 Other F
Slide 8: Europe – imports flat or slight growth
Europe – imports flat or slight growth European Energy Coal 450 CAGR Imports Domestic Production •• Overall 400 (1990-2002) Overalldemand demanddeclining, declining,but butimports imports 350 growing growingslowly slowly 300 •• ETS ETS&&LCD* LCD*already alreadyinfluencing influencingmarket market 25
Slide 9: US import growth to continue
US import growth to continue US Energy Coal US Imports CAGR CAGR 40 (1990-2003) East West Imports 35 1200 (1990-2003) 30 25 1000 20 Mt 17.5% 15 10 800 5 2.7% 0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2010 Mt 600 400 •• Continued Continueddecline declineininUS USEast Eastproduction production 200 (1.7%) •• US USWes
Slide 10: Asia - Strong demand growth
Asia - Strong demand growth Asian Energy Coal CAGR 300 (1990-2002) •• Increasing Increasingflexibility flexibilityinincoal coalpurchasing purchasing •• China Chinapenetration penetration 250 •• Spot 9.4% Spotpurchases purchases 200 •• Lack Lackofofpipeline pipelinegas gasalternatives alternatives 9.
Slide 11: What role will China play?
What role will China play? Exports Imports 75 10 Imports (Mt) Exports (Mt) 50 5 25 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004* 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004* •• Strong Strongpower powerdemand demand&&GDP GDPgrowth growth •• Industry Industryefficiency efficiencyimprovements improvements •• Poor Poorsafety safe
Slide 12: India imports growing
India imports growing Low power consumption per capita Imports growing from a low base 2001 TWhr/capita India 0.49 15 12 ? China Korea 1.02 5.25 Imports (Mt) 9 •• Domestic Domesticproduction production290Mtpa 290Mtpa steam steamcoal coal 6 •• 71% 71%ofofproduction productionhashasCV CV<< 5000 5000kc
Slide 13: Rapid Indonesian growth; is it sustainable?
Rapid Indonesian growth; is it sustainable? 120 ? 90 •• Lack Lackofofexploration exploration •• Declining Declininghigh highquality qualityreserves reserves •• New Newsupply supplyisisfurther furtherinland inland Mt 60 •• Lack Lackofofinfrastructure infrastructure •• Domestic Domesticdemand demandgr
Slide 14: Seaborne Energy Coal – Continuing Growth
Seaborne Energy Coal – Continuing Growth •• Seaborne Seaborneenergy energycoal coalwill willremain remainan animportant importantpart partofofglobal globalfuel fuelmix mix –– Competitive Competitiveeconomics economics –– Supply Supplysecurity security –– Technological Technologicaladvancements advan
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