Ryanair Holdings Plc · EURONEXT:RYA

Ryanair — Investor Day (September 2023)

39 slides from Ryanair's investor day presentation, September 2023

  1. Slide 1: Capital Markets Day - Sept. 23

    Capital Markets Day - Sept. 23

  2. Slide 2: Welcome & overview

    Welcome & overview Michael O’Leary Group CEO

  3. Slide 3: Europe's Lowest Cost Airline Today

    E u r o p e ’ s L o w e s t C o s t A i r l i n e To d a y  Lowest fare/lowest cost EU airline group  No. 1, Traffic: 183.5m (FY24)  No. 1, OTP & reliability  No. 1 EU ESG airline – Sustainalytics  300 MAX-10 order – Decade of Growth  Fin. strength + lowest cost = L.T. winner 3 3

  4. Slide 4: Europe's Lowest Costs – Gap Widens

    Eur ope’s Lowest Costs – Gap W idens € per pax RYA WIZ EZJ LUV LUF IAG Staff/efficiency 7 7 13 70 45 49 Airport & Hand. 7 14 28 11 34 46 Route Charges 5 5 5 - 5 5 Own’ship & maint. 8 16 14 17 52 44 S, M & other 4 5 16 28 31 21 (i) The gap widens: 31 47 (+50%) 76 (+140%) 126 167 166 (ii) Total (pre C

  5. Slide 5: Europe's No. 1 Coverage & Choice

    E u r o p e ’s N o. 1 C ove r a g e & C h o i c e  92 bases  228 apts, 36 countries  563 aircraft – 386 on order  3,300 daily flights  300m pax FY34 5 5

  6. Slide 6: 300 B737-MAX-10 order

    300 B737-MAX-10 order  300 Boeing MAX-10’s (subj. to AGM app.) ─ 150 firm & 150 options ─ Delivs. between 2027 - 2033  $40bn+ list price – competitive discounts  +21% seats (228 vs 189) & LEAP engines deliv.: ─ 20% less fuel, CO2 & 50% less noise ─ est. 10% ex-fuel unit cost savs. (gap widens) ─

  7. Slide 7: MAX-10s Drive Traffic Growth

    3 0 0 M A X - 1 0 s D r i ve Tr a f f i c t o 3 0 0 m G u e s t s Fleet Pax p.a. Pax Growth Cum. (y.e.) (m) y-o-y Growth (i) FY23 537 169 - - FY27 652 230 - +36% +2% +39% 300 MAX-10 Order FY28 667 235 FY29 680 240 +2% +42% FY30 700 250 +4% +48% FY31 730 265 +6% +57% FY32 760 280 +6% +66% FY33 790 29

  8. Slide 8: A Decade of Growth – Why?

    A Decade of Growth – W hy? FY23 FY34 Growth  Can we double traffic & profits? (indicative)  Where will traffic growth come from? Fleet 537 800 +49%  Will ancils. continue to grow?  Will cost adv. widen? Pax (m) 169 300 +80%  Can we staff an 800 acft. operation? PAT per pax €8 €10 +25%  Will ac

  9. Slide 9: Group Airlines

    Group Airlines

  10. Slide 10: Ryanair (Eddie Wilson - CEO)

    Ryanair (Eddie W ilson - CEO)  Irish AOC  Fleet – 308 B737s @ 30 Jun. & 46 bases  Key markets: UK, Spain, Ireland, Portugal  Manages all sched. sales for Group airlines  Back office service for all Group airlines incl: − Safety audits / Digital / Payroll / Labs  Competes for capital alloc. fro

  11. Slide 11: Buzz (Michal Kaczmarzyk - CEO)

    Buzz (Michal Kaczmarzyk - CEO)  Polish AOC  Fleet – 64 B737s @ 30 Jun. & 14 bases  Key CEE markets: − Pol., Hun., Bul., Czech, Lit., Lat., Albania (new)  Polish charter flights (9 acft) & wet lease to RYA DAC  WAW. Ops. cent., KRK training facil. & Pol. self handle  1st Group AOC to implement

  12. Slide 12: Malta Air (David O'Brien - CEO)

    Malta Air (David O’Brien - CEO)  Maltese AOC  Fleet – 158 B737s @ 30 Jun. & 33 bases  Key markets: Italy, Ger., France, Malta, Scandin.  Wet lease to RYA DAC  Treasury, insurance & leasing hub for Group  Developing mgmt. talent across fin., eng., safety, compl. & HR  Compete for capital alloc

  13. Slide 13: Lauda (Andreas Gruber – joint CEO)

    Lauda (Andreas Gruber – joint CEO)  Maltese AOC – Airbus Operator  Fleet – 28 A320s @ 30 Jun. & 5 bases  Key markets: Austria, Croatia, Spain, UK  Wet lease to RYA DAC & other Group airlines  Airbus expertise refined to RYA model  Compete for capital from RYA Group 13 13

  14. Slide 14: Finance & Sustainability

    Finance & Sustainability Neil Sorahan Group CFO

  15. Slide 15: Fortress Balance Sheet Underpins Growth

    Fo r t r e s s B a l a n c e S h e e t U n d e r p i n s G r ow t h  Strong BBB+ (stable) invest. grade credit ratings (S&P / Fitch)  100% B737 fleet unencumbered as int. rates rise  Net cash €1.0bn @ 30 Jun. (Gross cash €4.8bn)  €750m bond repaid Aug. 2023  2 yr gap from last B-8200 (FY25) & 1

  16. Slide 16: Prudent Financial Mgmt. (BBB+)

    Prudent Financial Mgmt. (BBB+)  Manageable debt mat. profile: − Sep. 25 – €0.85bn bond (@ 2.875%) − May 26 – €1.20bn bond (@ 0.875%)  Capex (i) − B-8200 peak FY24 (€2.8bn incl. $250m MAX-10 deposit) (ii) − MAX-10 start slowly FY25/FY26 & peaks @ < €3bn in FY30/FY31  Fund mainly from internal cash

  17. Slide 17: Capital Allocation Priorities

    Capital Allocation Priorities Maintain strong ff Invest in growth S/holder returns 4balance sheet & gg • Fund capex (B-8200 & (subj. to Board)s 4invest. grade rating MAX-10) • Modest div. prog. • Hold strong liquidity • Build buffer FY25/26 for (payout ratio – TBC) (e.g. €4bn into C-19) MAX-10 capex

  18. Slide 18: Fleet FY27 – FY34 (300 MAX-10 order)

    Fleet FY27 – FY34 (300 MAX-10 order) 790 800 800 Yr. end Fleet 760 300 x MAX-10s 730 700 680 MORE SEATS 667 652 LESS FUEL 8 28 68 122 169 218 268 300 LOWER COSTS 23 18 600 9 1 537 ADDIT. CAPAC. 28 FOR AIRPORTS 210 210 210 TO GROW 210 98 210 210 210 LOWER APT. & 400 210 HAND.COSTS 411 411 411 393 LOW

  19. Slide 19: MAX-10 widens cost gap

    MAX-10 widens cost gap (TMcC)  MAX-10 provides sig. cost efficiencies (21% more seats vs NGs)  c. 20% lower fuel burn, CO2 & 50% less noise (LEAP-1B engines) (i)  Est. 10% ex-fuel unit cost savings driven by: Staff/efficiency • crew costs spread over more pax (+1 c/c) • airports want new efficien

  20. Slide 20: Best in class ESG

    Best in class ESG (TF) Ratings: Member of: Committed to: 20 20 20

  21. Slide 21: Sustainability targets & update

    Sustainability tar gets & update (TF)  Reset CO2 pax/km tgt: 50g in FY31 (was 60g) SBTi Aligned  Sig. investment in fuel efficient acft. (“G’changers & MAX-10)  NG scim. winglets (1.5% fuel red.) – c.100 acft. by yr. end  4x SAF MOUs: Neste, OMV, Repsol, Shell (12.5% by 2030) − 9.5% secured alre

  22. Slide 22: Best in class

    Best in class RYA Wz EZJ AF LUF IAG LUV (i) Traffic (m) 169 51 79 83 102 95 127 (i) Net Margin/(Loss) +13% (14%) (2%) +3% +3% +2% +2% (ii) Net Cash / (Debt) (€bn) 1.0 (3.8) 0.3 (4.9) (5.9) (7.6) 3.9 Invest. grade ratings BBB+ Sub. BBB Sub. Sub. Sub. BBB+ TSR (10 yr) 143% 92% -27% -55% 12% 25% 185% (

  23. Slide 23: Commercial – Jason McGuinness (CCO)

    Commercial – Jason McGuinness (CCO)

  24. Slide 24: A Decade of Growth – Where?

    A Decade of Growth – W her e?  Constrained EU capacity facilitates RYA growth  OEMs can’t increase delivs. until early 2030s  EU consol. to reduce capacity further – ITA, TAP, SAS, EZJ, Wizz  RYA fleet growth 50% from 2023 – 2033  Market share growth in existing EU markets – fare & cost advanta

  25. Slide 25: Constrained EU cap. stimulates RYA growth

    C o n s t r a i n e d E U c a p . s t i m u l a t e s R YA g r o w t h Intra-Euro cap. pre / post COVID: FY16 to FY24 (seats billions) 1.28bn 1.23bn 1.18bn 1.14bn 1.09bn 0.25 1.05bn 0.99bn 0.04 0.30 0.94bn (20%) 0.89bn 0.57 0.84 1.05 1.03 0.93 80% of “non- 0.61 COVID impacted FY24” 0.30 FY16 FY17 FY

  26. Slide 26: Market share upside in main markets

    M a r ke t s h a r e u p s i d e i n m a i n m a r ke t s Possible share in main markets – sig. opportunities (% dept. seats and # additional aircraft required to serve) Curr. share Poss. share Add. acft. req. (#) Ireland 60% c. 65% +20 Italy 38% c. 50% +50 Poland 36% c. 50% +25 Spain 24% c. 40% +13

  27. Slide 27: Growth builds on current strong market position

    G r ow t h b u i l d s o n c u r r e n t s t r o n g m a r ke t p o s i t i o n Growth by region (Ryanair dept. pax estimates) Countries FY24 pax FY34E pax Region  (m) Acft. needed (#) (m) (m) West. Eur. 17 155 230 76 625 Cent. / East. Eur. 15 24 60 36 155 (i) Non Eur. 4 5 10 5 20 Network 36 183.5

  28. Slide 28: People – Darrell Hughes (CPO)

    People – Darrell Hughes (CPO)

  29. Slide 29: Resourcing for 300m pax

    Resour cing for 300m pax  Long track record of recruiting for growth  FY23 & FY24: 100+ acft. growth = 4,000 new hires  FY30 to FY33 (peak delivs.): c.30 net acft. growth p.a.  Create 10,000 new aviation professional roles  Union CLAs & rapid promotion 29 29

  30. Slide 30: Resourcing for 300m pax – Pilots & Eng.

    Resour cing for 300m pax – Pilots & Eng.  Pilots  − Strong supply of self-funded cadet pilots − Rapid promotion & min. external recruit.  − Mentored prog. improves quality & supply − Constrained industry cap. reduces attrition risk   Cabin Crew − High volume but strong supply  − Ability to piv

  31. Slide 31: People Relations

    People Relations  Maintained  model & flexibility through unionisation & Covid recov.  Ongoingcycle of long-term CLA’s  Occasional  strikes inevitable and manageable (e.g. CRL, S.23)  Key risks& challenges: − Inflation pay pressure but higher prod. widens gap to comps.  − US / China / ME /

  32. Slide 32: Operations – Neal McMahon (COO)

    Operations – Neal McMahon (COO)

  33. Slide 33: Investing for Growth – Ops.

    Investing for Gr owth – Ops.  Sig. invest in op. resilience: ─ double size of DUB. / WAW. Ops. Cen. – cap. for 800 acft. ─ modular layout allows for expansion ─ “Bridge” Management Function ─ using RYA Labs to accelerate efficiency ─ improved Day of Travel app. & cust. comms  OTP improves 33 33

  34. Slide 34: Investing for Growth – Training Centres

    I nve s t i n g fo r G r ow t h – Tr a i n i n g C e n t r e s  5x Training Centres (more to come) − DUB / STN / EMA / BGY / HHN  Krakow & Madrid in pipeline  28 SIMs + 16 on order  Capac. for 2.5k pilots & 6k c. crew p.a.  Contin. upgrading existing centres 34 34

  35. Slide 35: Investing for Growth - Engineering

    Investing for Gr owth - Engineering  40x Maint. Bays (in-house) − 11 x UK (STN & PIK) − 5 x IE (DUB & SNN) − 6 x ES (MAD & SVQ) − 18 Other: HNN, BGY, MLA, VIE, WRO & KUN  Planned expansion (more to follow) − WRO +2 Bays − KUN +2 Bays − DUB +2 Bays  Consid. engine shops for 2030s  94 spare engine

  36. Slide 36: Labs — John Hurley (CTO)

    A DECADE OF 6 OWTH Labs — John Hurley (CTO)

  37. Slide 37: Ryanair Labs – Decade of Growth

    Ryanair Labs – Decade of Growth  Labs embedded in RYA since 2014  Hubs in DUB / WRO / MAD / POR  Drives efficiency & scalability to support 300m p.a. pax / 800 acft.  In Labs, we build: − world class products (front end) − strategic future proofing platforms (back end) − tactical market leading

  38. Slide 38: Ryanair Labs – World Class Products Using AI

    Ryanair Labs – Wor ld Class Pr oducts Using AI  Use AI to optimise revenue via dynamic pricing of fares & ancillaries  Layered on AI tools which optimise: − RYA schedules − Crew rosters − Training scheduling & simulator capacity − Tail allocation  Use Gen. AI for customer service – Chatbot 38 38

  39. Slide 39: Wrap up / Q&A

    7 ; Wrap up / Q8A.

Ryanair Holdings — Investor Day (September 2023) on 6ix