Ryanair Holdings Plc · EURONEXT:RYA
Ryanair — Investor Day (September 2023)
39 slides from Ryanair's investor day presentation, September 2023
Slide 1: Capital Markets Day - Sept. 23
Capital Markets Day - Sept. 23
Slide 2: Welcome & overview
Welcome & overview Michael O’Leary Group CEO
Slide 3: Europe's Lowest Cost Airline Today
E u r o p e ’ s L o w e s t C o s t A i r l i n e To d a y Lowest fare/lowest cost EU airline group No. 1, Traffic: 183.5m (FY24) No. 1, OTP & reliability No. 1 EU ESG airline – Sustainalytics 300 MAX-10 order – Decade of Growth Fin. strength + lowest cost = L.T. winner 3 3
Slide 4: Europe's Lowest Costs – Gap Widens
Eur ope’s Lowest Costs – Gap W idens € per pax RYA WIZ EZJ LUV LUF IAG Staff/efficiency 7 7 13 70 45 49 Airport & Hand. 7 14 28 11 34 46 Route Charges 5 5 5 - 5 5 Own’ship & maint. 8 16 14 17 52 44 S, M & other 4 5 16 28 31 21 (i) The gap widens: 31 47 (+50%) 76 (+140%) 126 167 166 (ii) Total (pre C
Slide 5: Europe's No. 1 Coverage & Choice
E u r o p e ’s N o. 1 C ove r a g e & C h o i c e 92 bases 228 apts, 36 countries 563 aircraft – 386 on order 3,300 daily flights 300m pax FY34 5 5
Slide 6: 300 B737-MAX-10 order
300 B737-MAX-10 order 300 Boeing MAX-10’s (subj. to AGM app.) ─ 150 firm & 150 options ─ Delivs. between 2027 - 2033 $40bn+ list price – competitive discounts +21% seats (228 vs 189) & LEAP engines deliv.: ─ 20% less fuel, CO2 & 50% less noise ─ est. 10% ex-fuel unit cost savs. (gap widens) ─
Slide 7: MAX-10s Drive Traffic Growth
3 0 0 M A X - 1 0 s D r i ve Tr a f f i c t o 3 0 0 m G u e s t s Fleet Pax p.a. Pax Growth Cum. (y.e.) (m) y-o-y Growth (i) FY23 537 169 - - FY27 652 230 - +36% +2% +39% 300 MAX-10 Order FY28 667 235 FY29 680 240 +2% +42% FY30 700 250 +4% +48% FY31 730 265 +6% +57% FY32 760 280 +6% +66% FY33 790 29
Slide 8: A Decade of Growth – Why?
A Decade of Growth – W hy? FY23 FY34 Growth Can we double traffic & profits? (indicative) Where will traffic growth come from? Fleet 537 800 +49% Will ancils. continue to grow? Will cost adv. widen? Pax (m) 169 300 +80% Can we staff an 800 acft. operation? PAT per pax €8 €10 +25% Will ac
Slide 9: Group Airlines
Group Airlines
Slide 10: Ryanair (Eddie Wilson - CEO)
Ryanair (Eddie W ilson - CEO) Irish AOC Fleet – 308 B737s @ 30 Jun. & 46 bases Key markets: UK, Spain, Ireland, Portugal Manages all sched. sales for Group airlines Back office service for all Group airlines incl: − Safety audits / Digital / Payroll / Labs Competes for capital alloc. fro
Slide 11: Buzz (Michal Kaczmarzyk - CEO)
Buzz (Michal Kaczmarzyk - CEO) Polish AOC Fleet – 64 B737s @ 30 Jun. & 14 bases Key CEE markets: − Pol., Hun., Bul., Czech, Lit., Lat., Albania (new) Polish charter flights (9 acft) & wet lease to RYA DAC WAW. Ops. cent., KRK training facil. & Pol. self handle 1st Group AOC to implement
Slide 12: Malta Air (David O'Brien - CEO)
Malta Air (David O’Brien - CEO) Maltese AOC Fleet – 158 B737s @ 30 Jun. & 33 bases Key markets: Italy, Ger., France, Malta, Scandin. Wet lease to RYA DAC Treasury, insurance & leasing hub for Group Developing mgmt. talent across fin., eng., safety, compl. & HR Compete for capital alloc
Slide 13: Lauda (Andreas Gruber – joint CEO)
Lauda (Andreas Gruber – joint CEO) Maltese AOC – Airbus Operator Fleet – 28 A320s @ 30 Jun. & 5 bases Key markets: Austria, Croatia, Spain, UK Wet lease to RYA DAC & other Group airlines Airbus expertise refined to RYA model Compete for capital from RYA Group 13 13
Slide 14: Finance & Sustainability
Finance & Sustainability Neil Sorahan Group CFO
Slide 15: Fortress Balance Sheet Underpins Growth
Fo r t r e s s B a l a n c e S h e e t U n d e r p i n s G r ow t h Strong BBB+ (stable) invest. grade credit ratings (S&P / Fitch) 100% B737 fleet unencumbered as int. rates rise Net cash €1.0bn @ 30 Jun. (Gross cash €4.8bn) €750m bond repaid Aug. 2023 2 yr gap from last B-8200 (FY25) & 1
Slide 16: Prudent Financial Mgmt. (BBB+)
Prudent Financial Mgmt. (BBB+) Manageable debt mat. profile: − Sep. 25 – €0.85bn bond (@ 2.875%) − May 26 – €1.20bn bond (@ 0.875%) Capex (i) − B-8200 peak FY24 (€2.8bn incl. $250m MAX-10 deposit) (ii) − MAX-10 start slowly FY25/FY26 & peaks @ < €3bn in FY30/FY31 Fund mainly from internal cash
Slide 17: Capital Allocation Priorities
Capital Allocation Priorities Maintain strong ff Invest in growth S/holder returns 4balance sheet & gg • Fund capex (B-8200 & (subj. to Board)s 4invest. grade rating MAX-10) • Modest div. prog. • Hold strong liquidity • Build buffer FY25/26 for (payout ratio – TBC) (e.g. €4bn into C-19) MAX-10 capex
Slide 18: Fleet FY27 – FY34 (300 MAX-10 order)
Fleet FY27 – FY34 (300 MAX-10 order) 790 800 800 Yr. end Fleet 760 300 x MAX-10s 730 700 680 MORE SEATS 667 652 LESS FUEL 8 28 68 122 169 218 268 300 LOWER COSTS 23 18 600 9 1 537 ADDIT. CAPAC. 28 FOR AIRPORTS 210 210 210 TO GROW 210 98 210 210 210 LOWER APT. & 400 210 HAND.COSTS 411 411 411 393 LOW
Slide 19: MAX-10 widens cost gap
MAX-10 widens cost gap (TMcC) MAX-10 provides sig. cost efficiencies (21% more seats vs NGs) c. 20% lower fuel burn, CO2 & 50% less noise (LEAP-1B engines) (i) Est. 10% ex-fuel unit cost savings driven by: Staff/efficiency • crew costs spread over more pax (+1 c/c) • airports want new efficien
Slide 20: Best in class ESG
Best in class ESG (TF) Ratings: Member of: Committed to: 20 20 20
Slide 21: Sustainability targets & update
Sustainability tar gets & update (TF) Reset CO2 pax/km tgt: 50g in FY31 (was 60g) SBTi Aligned Sig. investment in fuel efficient acft. (“G’changers & MAX-10) NG scim. winglets (1.5% fuel red.) – c.100 acft. by yr. end 4x SAF MOUs: Neste, OMV, Repsol, Shell (12.5% by 2030) − 9.5% secured alre
Slide 22: Best in class
Best in class RYA Wz EZJ AF LUF IAG LUV (i) Traffic (m) 169 51 79 83 102 95 127 (i) Net Margin/(Loss) +13% (14%) (2%) +3% +3% +2% +2% (ii) Net Cash / (Debt) (€bn) 1.0 (3.8) 0.3 (4.9) (5.9) (7.6) 3.9 Invest. grade ratings BBB+ Sub. BBB Sub. Sub. Sub. BBB+ TSR (10 yr) 143% 92% -27% -55% 12% 25% 185% (
Slide 23: Commercial – Jason McGuinness (CCO)
Commercial – Jason McGuinness (CCO)
Slide 24: A Decade of Growth – Where?
A Decade of Growth – W her e? Constrained EU capacity facilitates RYA growth OEMs can’t increase delivs. until early 2030s EU consol. to reduce capacity further – ITA, TAP, SAS, EZJ, Wizz RYA fleet growth 50% from 2023 – 2033 Market share growth in existing EU markets – fare & cost advanta
Slide 25: Constrained EU cap. stimulates RYA growth
C o n s t r a i n e d E U c a p . s t i m u l a t e s R YA g r o w t h Intra-Euro cap. pre / post COVID: FY16 to FY24 (seats billions) 1.28bn 1.23bn 1.18bn 1.14bn 1.09bn 0.25 1.05bn 0.99bn 0.04 0.30 0.94bn (20%) 0.89bn 0.57 0.84 1.05 1.03 0.93 80% of “non- 0.61 COVID impacted FY24” 0.30 FY16 FY17 FY
Slide 26: Market share upside in main markets
M a r ke t s h a r e u p s i d e i n m a i n m a r ke t s Possible share in main markets – sig. opportunities (% dept. seats and # additional aircraft required to serve) Curr. share Poss. share Add. acft. req. (#) Ireland 60% c. 65% +20 Italy 38% c. 50% +50 Poland 36% c. 50% +25 Spain 24% c. 40% +13
Slide 27: Growth builds on current strong market position
G r ow t h b u i l d s o n c u r r e n t s t r o n g m a r ke t p o s i t i o n Growth by region (Ryanair dept. pax estimates) Countries FY24 pax FY34E pax Region (m) Acft. needed (#) (m) (m) West. Eur. 17 155 230 76 625 Cent. / East. Eur. 15 24 60 36 155 (i) Non Eur. 4 5 10 5 20 Network 36 183.5
Slide 28: People – Darrell Hughes (CPO)
People – Darrell Hughes (CPO)
Slide 29: Resourcing for 300m pax
Resour cing for 300m pax Long track record of recruiting for growth FY23 & FY24: 100+ acft. growth = 4,000 new hires FY30 to FY33 (peak delivs.): c.30 net acft. growth p.a. Create 10,000 new aviation professional roles Union CLAs & rapid promotion 29 29
Slide 30: Resourcing for 300m pax – Pilots & Eng.
Resour cing for 300m pax – Pilots & Eng. Pilots − Strong supply of self-funded cadet pilots − Rapid promotion & min. external recruit. − Mentored prog. improves quality & supply − Constrained industry cap. reduces attrition risk Cabin Crew − High volume but strong supply − Ability to piv
Slide 31: People Relations
People Relations Maintained model & flexibility through unionisation & Covid recov. Ongoingcycle of long-term CLA’s Occasional strikes inevitable and manageable (e.g. CRL, S.23) Key risks& challenges: − Inflation pay pressure but higher prod. widens gap to comps. − US / China / ME /
Slide 32: Operations – Neal McMahon (COO)
Operations – Neal McMahon (COO)
Slide 33: Investing for Growth – Ops.
Investing for Gr owth – Ops. Sig. invest in op. resilience: ─ double size of DUB. / WAW. Ops. Cen. – cap. for 800 acft. ─ modular layout allows for expansion ─ “Bridge” Management Function ─ using RYA Labs to accelerate efficiency ─ improved Day of Travel app. & cust. comms OTP improves 33 33
Slide 34: Investing for Growth – Training Centres
I nve s t i n g fo r G r ow t h – Tr a i n i n g C e n t r e s 5x Training Centres (more to come) − DUB / STN / EMA / BGY / HHN Krakow & Madrid in pipeline 28 SIMs + 16 on order Capac. for 2.5k pilots & 6k c. crew p.a. Contin. upgrading existing centres 34 34
Slide 35: Investing for Growth - Engineering
Investing for Gr owth - Engineering 40x Maint. Bays (in-house) − 11 x UK (STN & PIK) − 5 x IE (DUB & SNN) − 6 x ES (MAD & SVQ) − 18 Other: HNN, BGY, MLA, VIE, WRO & KUN Planned expansion (more to follow) − WRO +2 Bays − KUN +2 Bays − DUB +2 Bays Consid. engine shops for 2030s 94 spare engine
Slide 36: Labs — John Hurley (CTO)
A DECADE OF 6 OWTH Labs — John Hurley (CTO)
Slide 37: Ryanair Labs – Decade of Growth
Ryanair Labs – Decade of Growth Labs embedded in RYA since 2014 Hubs in DUB / WRO / MAD / POR Drives efficiency & scalability to support 300m p.a. pax / 800 acft. In Labs, we build: − world class products (front end) − strategic future proofing platforms (back end) − tactical market leading
Slide 38: Ryanair Labs – World Class Products Using AI
Ryanair Labs – Wor ld Class Pr oducts Using AI Use AI to optimise revenue via dynamic pricing of fares & ancillaries Layered on AI tools which optimise: − RYA schedules − Crew rosters − Training scheduling & simulator capacity − Tail allocation Use Gen. AI for customer service – Chatbot 38 38
Slide 39: Wrap up / Q&A
7 ; Wrap up / Q8A.