Slide 1: Investor Presentation January – September 2023
Investor Presentation January – September 2023 8 November 2023 1
Slide 2: Sampo Group Q3/2023 results
Sampo Group Q3/2023 results 8 November 2023 8 November 2023 2
Slide 3: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation may contain forward-looking statements that reflect management’s current views with respect to certain future events and potential financial performance. Although Sampo believes that the expectations reflected in such forward looking statements are reasonable, no assuran
Slide 4: 1-9/2023: Continued strong operational performance
1-9/2023: Continued strong operational performance Strong FX-adjusted premium growth of 12 per cent in Q3 driven by Private and the UK Underlying margin trends remained positive with signs of moderating claims inflation in the Nordics Result adversely impacted by EUR 90 million of severe weather eff
Slide 5: Strong underlying development offset by unfavourable weather events
Strong underlying development offset by unfavourable weather events Profit before taxes (P&C operations), EURm P&C underwriting profit, EURm Combined ratio, % +1.2%-p -4% 2,000 1,857 1,200 84.2 % 1,000 923 84% 882 1,500 800 83.0 % 1,113 1,000 600 627 82% 400 500 200 0 0 80% 1-9/2022 1-9/2022 1-9/202
Slide 6: Key developments in Sampo’s P&C operations
Key developments in Sampo’s P&C operations Premium growth and pricing Claims cost development ✓ The Nordic P&C market remains disciplined, with dynamics ≈ Nordic claims inflation fell toward the lower end of 4-5% in Q3 broadly unchanged year-to-date driven by the property line ✓ Nordic price increas
Slide 7: Strong Nordic GWP growth driven by increased rates and high retention
Strong Nordic GWP growth driven by increased rates and high retention FX-adjusted GWP growth 9M/2023 Q3/2023 Key developments If total 6.9% 10.0% • Strong organic GWP growth of 6.9% in 9M/2023 (excl. currency effects), Private 4.9% 6.3% accelerating to 10.0% growth in Q3 Commercial 5.4% 0.1% • Robus
Slide 8: Nordic underwriting profits supported by healthy growth and margins
Nordic underwriting profits supported by healthy growth and margins Key developments 9M/2023 combined ratio • 9M/2023 insurance service result of EUR 628 million (661) driven by strong and profitable GWP growth, with high retention and positive business momentum • The improvement in the underlying u
Slide 9: Solid premium growth momentum in Private
Solid premium growth momentum in Private • FX-adjusted GWP growth in Private accelerated to 6.3%, driven FX-adjusted GWP growth in Private, yoy by strong performance in home and personal insurance 10% 8% 7.8% • Q3 online sales in Private up 9% year-on-year, supported by 6% 6.3% several activities 4%
Slide 10: Nordic claims inflation moderated over the third quarter
Nordic claims inflation moderated over the third quarter • Claims inflation remains relatively high with continued impact from weak currencies and high general inflation Property insurance Materials Labour Claims inflation, % • Average Nordic claims inflation declined to the lower end of the 4-5% ra
Slide 11: Strong UK growth reflecting higher premiums and LCP growth
Strong UK growth reflecting higher premiums and LCP growth • Continued strong currency adjusted GWP growth of 32%, driven by price Live customer policies (million) increases and LCP growth 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.3 2.0 • UK motor pricing hardened significantly over the second quarter, with dou
Slide 12: Partial demerger succesfully completed
Partial demerger succesfully completed Demerger and restructuring • Sampo sold or plans to sell certain assets to Mandatum in connection with the demerger. These assets include holdings in Saxo Bank and Enento Group, guarantee shares of Kaleva Mutual Insurance Company and other smaller equity, debt
Slide 13: Resilient Group performance relative to financial targets
Resilient Group performance relative to financial targets Financial target 2021 2022 1-9/2023 • Mid-single digit growth in UW profit • 19% • 13% • -4% annually on average • Group combined ratio <86% • 81.4% • 82.1% • 84.2% • Mid-single digit growth in UW profit • 15% • 26% • -5% annually on average
Slide 14: Solvency remained strong, leverage within target
Solvency remained strong, leverage within target Sampo Group Solvency II ratio, pro forma, % Sampo Group financial leverage, pro forma, % Own funds: EURm 8,542 EURm 6,589 IFRS equity: EURm 8.709 EURm 7,309 SCR: EURm 3,811 EURm 3,087 Financial debt: EURm 3,171 EURm 2,610 230% 30% 224% 20% Target: <30
Slide 15: Outlook for 2023
Outlook for 2023 Sampo Group’s P&C insurance business is expected to achieve underwriting margins that meet the annual targets set for 2021–2023. At Group level, Sampo targets a combined ratio of below 86 per cent, while the targets set for its fully owned P&C insurance subsidiaries, If P&C and Hast
Slide 16: Sampo Group
Sampo Group 8 November 2023 16
Slide 17: Financials
Financials 8 November 2023 17
Slide 18: Group key figures
Group key figures EURm 1-9/2023 1-9/2022 Change, % Q3/2023 Q3/2022 Change, % Profit before taxes (P&C operations) 1,113 1,857 -40 391 342 14 If 989 1,491 -34 332 264 26 Topdanmark 143 78 83 38 35 10 Hastings 70 100 -30 43 54 -20 Holding -81 194 - -21 -10 - Net profit for the equity holders 941 2,046
Slide 19: Profit before taxes (P&C operations) and EPS by quarter
Profit before taxes (P&C operations) and EPS by quarter EURm EUR 900 1.80 824 1.66 800 1.60 692 1.42 700 1.40 600 1.20 500 1.00 391 0.75 400 342 359 363 0.80 0.73 0.60 300 0.60 0.53 200 0.40 100 67 0.20 0.14 0 0.00 Q1/22 Q2/22 Q3/22 Q4/22 Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 Q1/22 Q2/22 Q3/22 Q4/22 Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 F
Slide 20: Key result movements Q3/2023
Key result movements Q3/2023 Q3/2023 Q3/2022 Comments - UW result of EUR 284 million negatively affacted by severe weather, large claims and currency headwind. Net financial result Group PBT of EUR 156 million, including net investment income of EUR 127 million and IFIE of EUR 29 million. 391 342 (P
Slide 21: EPS and operational result calculation
EPS and operational result calculation EPS calculation Operational result calculation 1-9/2023 1-9/2022 Q3/2023 Q3/2022 EURm 1-9/2023 Net profit for the equity Profit before taxes (P&C operations) 1,113 941 2,046 366 387 holders, EURm - from continuing - Net unrealised gains or losses on investment
Slide 22: Share buybacks development
Share buybacks development Buyback programmes Buybacks by quarter Announced, Executed, Launch Start End EURm EURm Shares repurchased EURm 1. programme 1 Oct 2021 4 Oct 2021 25 Mar 2022 750 750 Q4/2021 8,539,956 380 2. programme 30 Mar 2022 31 Mar 2022 17 May 2022 250 228 Total 2021 8,539,956 380 3.
Slide 23: Key IFRS 17/9 accounting considerations for Sampo Group
Key IFRS 17/9 accounting considerations for Sampo Group Slide from IFRS 17 restatement deck • P&C operations use the simplified Premium Allocation Approach (PAA) P&C • Introduction of risk adjustment and discounting of claims operations • Assumptions and methodologies to reflect entity-specific circ
Slide 24: Underwriting
Underwriting 8 November 2023 24
Slide 25: Top line development
Top line development GWP and other income from insurance contracts Insurance revenue, net EURm EURm IFRS 4 IFRS 17 IFRS 4 IFRS 17 9,000 8,000 8,266 7,337 8,136 7,168 8,000 6,887 7,644 7,000 7,241 1,527 1,010 889 1,313 6,516 6,909 830 7,000 1,127 6,580 805 1,103 6,000 5,566 1,326 5,499 5,737 5,947 1,
Slide 26: Underwriting result and combined ratio development
Underwriting result and combined ratio development Underwriting result Combined ratio EURm IFRS 4 IFRS 17 IFRS 4 IFRS 17 1,400 88% 1,314 1,282 104 85.8% 86% 1,200 164 84.6% 84.2% 1,087 84.0% 224 84% 1,031 83.3% 83.0% 103 1,000 227 128 923 81.4% 82.1% 892 882 82% 182 93 837 86 800 210 230 80% 202 169
Slide 27: Net insurance liabilities
Net insurance liabilities Q3/2023 EURm If P&C Topdanmark Hastings Sampo Group Liability for remaining coverage, net 1,006 357 284 1,646 End of Q3/2023 discount rates (If & Hastings) Liability for incurred claims, net 5,477 1,433 787 7,697 - of which Risk adjustment 151 35 46 232 EUR 9 years: 3.38% D
Slide 28: Sampo Group P&C operations – key sensitivities under IFRS
Sampo Group P&C operations – key sensitivities under IFRS 17 FY2022 effects from instant change on P&L EURm If Hastings Sampo Group * UW profit Discount rate +100 bps +40 +10 +60 UW profit Discount rate -100 bps -40 -10 -60 Insurance finance income & expense, net Discount rate +100 bps +250 +20 +310
Slide 29: Investments
Investments 8 November 2023 29
Slide 30: Sampo Group P&C operations’ investment mix, 30 September 2023
Sampo Group P&C operations’ investment mix, 30 September 2023 If Topdanmark Hastings Sampo plc Sampo Group Money market 3% 1% 18% 42% 8% Fixed income 64% 4% 79% 0% 50% Covered bonds 22% 84% 0% 0% 27% Equities 10% 3% 0% 4% 8% Private equity 0% 1% 0% 55% 6% Real estate 0% 4% 0% 0% 1% Other 0% 3% 2% 0%
Slide 31: Net financial result bridge 1-9/2023
Sampo Group P&C operations’ net financial result bridge 1-9/2023 600 500 5 -22 -27 99 400 110 -48 22 -118 21 45 300 489 200 IFIE EUR -103 million 385 297 100 0 Interest & dividend Net gains or losses Other Net investment Unwind of Changes in discount Indexation of Net financial result income income
Slide 32: Net financial result bridge Q3/2023
Sampo Group P&C operations’ net financial result bridge Q3/2023 200 180 -20 160 140 8 102 0 120 -9 9 -9 100 14 -35 80 156 60 127 96 40 IFIE 20 EUR 29 million 0 Interest & dividend Net gains or losses Other Net investment Unwind of Changes in discount Indexation of Net financial result income income
Slide 33: Net investment income 1-9/2023
Sampo Group P&C operations’ net investment income 1-9/2023 EURm If P&C Topdanmark Hastings Holding Eliminations Sampo Group Fixed income 263 37 20 18 -10 328 Equities 30 1 0 14 0 45 Funds 4 7 1 0 0 13 Interest & dividend income 297 45 21 32 -10 385 Fixed income 21 0 11 0 0 32 Equities 72 11 0 -46 0
Slide 34: Net investment income Q3/2023
Sampo Group P&C operations’ net investment income Q3/2023 EURm If P&C Topdanmark Hastings Holding Eliminations Sampo Group Fixed income 93 13 8 4 -4 114 Equities 1 0 0 0 0 1 Funds 1 1 1 0 0 3 Interest & dividend income 96 14 9 4 -4 119 Fixed income 18 0 26 0 0 44 Equities -20 -2 0 -8 0 -30 Funds -15
Slide 35: Solvency
SAMPO = GROUP Solvency 8 November 2023 35
Slide 36: Sampo Group Solvency II ratio development
Pro forma excluding Sampo Group Solvency II ratio development Mandatum and including dividend accrual based on the regular dividend of EUR 1.50 per share for 2022 240% 236% 224% 220% 213% 210% 200% 195% 185% 180% 174% 176% 160% 155% 156% 140% 140% 120% 100% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Q1/2023
Slide 37: Sampo Group Solvency II, 30 September 2023, pro forma
Sampo Group Solvency II, 30 September 2023, pro forma EURm 7,000 Solvency II ratio 213% 6,000 5,000 269 189 4,000 -780 -380 -0 16 6,589 3,000 1,913 2,000 3,087 1,000 1,859 0 8 November 2023 37
Slide 38: Solvency II estimated sensitivities on market risk factors
Sampo Group Solvency II, estimated sensitivities on market risk factors Pro forma, 30 September 2023 213% 208% 218% 214% 213% 207% 209% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% Base case Q3/2023 RFR -100 bps RFR +100 bps Spread +100 bps Equity prices -10% Equity prices -20% Equity prices -30% Symmetric The Solvency II
Slide 39: Financial leverage
Financial leverage 8 November 2023 39
Slide 40: Sampo Group financial leverage
Sampo Group financial leverage IFRS 4 IFRS 17 Total debt, EURm 3,924 4,531 4,616 4,905 4,210 3,288 3,288 3,184 3,171 2,860 2,610 IFRS equity, EURm 13,508 13,014 12,542 12,258 13,464 9,543 10,178 10,252 8,709 9,033 7,309 35% 22.5% 25.8% 26.9% 28.6% 23.8% 25.6% 24.4% 23.7% 26.7% 24.0% 26.3% 30% 25% 20
Slide 41: Financial debt, pro forma excluding Mandatum, 30 September 2023
Sampo Group financial debt, pro forma excluding Mandatum, 30 September 2023 Sampo plc If Topdanmark Hastings Eliminations* Group, total Sub/hybrid 1,490 130 148 - -127 1,639 Senior bonds 971 - - - - 971 Total 2,460 130 148 - -127 2,610 * Topdanmark EUR 127 million held by If. Key Credit Metrics Fina
Slide 42: Sampo Group outstanding debt instruments, 30 September 2023
Sampo Group outstanding debt instruments, 30 September 2023 Sampo Plc Subsidiaries Instrument & Principal Coupon Maturity/call Instrument & Principal Coupon Maturity/call Senior Bond 162 EURm 1.250% 30 May 2025 If P&C - Subordinated 1,500 SEKm Stibor 3M + 1.30% 17 Mar 2026 Senior Bond 313 EURm 1.625
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Slide 44: Combined ratio development
Combined ratio development 90% IFRS 4 IFRS 17 85% 88.9% 88.1% 80% 87.7% 86.6% 86.5% 86.1% 85.3% 85.2% 84.5% 83.2% 82.5% 82.1 % 81.3 % 80.3% 75% 70% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022 1-9/2022 1-9/2023 Combined ratio Target for 2021-2023 (<85%) 8 November 2023 Note: 2015 and
Slide 45: Results by quarter
Results by quarter EURm Q3/2023 Q2/2023 Q1/2023 Q4/2022 Q3/2022 Q2/2022 Q1/2022 Gross written premiums 1,100 1,307 1,966 1,084 1,081 1,343 1,923 Insurance revenue, net 1,263 1,231 1,235 1,257 1,285 1,259 1,222 Claims incurred, net -802 -761 -759 -954 -790 -749 -775 Operating expenses and claims hand
Slide 46: Key figures by quarter
Key figures by quarter Q3/2023 Q2/2023 Q1/2023 Q4/2022 Q3/2022 Q2/2022 Q1/2022 Combined ratio, % 84.1 82.9 82.4 98.5 83.1 80.3 83.9 Cost ratio, % 20.7 21.1 21.0 23.1 21.7 20.9 20.5 Risk ratio, % 63.4 61.8 61.5 75.4 61.5 59.5 63.4 Large losses and severe weather, % 9.2 7.1 -1.6 2.7 2.4 -1.7 1.6 Risk
Slide 47: Key figures by business area and country
Key figures by business area and country 1-9/2023 (1-9/2022) Private Commercial Industrial Baltic Sweden Norway Finland Denmark Other GWP, EURm 2 217 (2 274) 1 125 (1 139) 849 (778) 182 (157) 1 446 (1 474) 1 340 (1 399) 971 (887) 434 (431) 0 (0) Insurance revenue, net, EURm 2 121 (2 202) 979 (990) 4
Slide 48: Key figures by business area and country
Key figures by business area and country Q3/2023 (Q3/2022) Private Commercial Industrial Baltic Sweden Norway Finland Denmark Other GWP, EURm 701 (714) 162 (184) 178 (135) 58 (50) 415 (419) 309 (334) 198 (178) 119 (101) 0 (0) Insurance revenue, net, EURm 716 (747) 330 (337) 160 (152) 57 (49) 404 (43
Slide 49: FX-adjusted GWP quarterly growth by business area and country
FX-adjusted GWP quarterly growth by business area and country Private Commercial Industrial Baltic Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2019 3.3 3.9 5.9 7.3 1.6 3.3 4.0 5.1 11.7 12.6 22.6 38.3 -1.9 2.2 0.1 -0.3 2020 6.4 0.4 4.9 3.6 7.3 4.4 -1.0 -1.5 7.6 13.0 17.7 6.2 6.6 -2.7 3.5 1.9 2021
Slide 50: Number of customers, customer satisfaction and retention in Private
Number of customers, customer satisfaction and retention in Private Number of customers, million Customer satisfaction, NPS Customer retention, % households 3.3 3.3 62 90% 90% 90% 90% 3.2 3.2 61 60 60 2020 2021 2022 Q3 2023 2020 2021 2022 Q3 2023 2020 2021 2022 Q3 2023 8 November 2023 50
Slide 51: Nordic new car sales
Nordic new car sales Number of new cars sold Number of new cars sold 878,000 If P&C had a market 841,000 838,000 share of 24% in Q3/2023 197,000 193,000 191,000 761,000 +6.6% 168,000 170,000 728,000 160,000 692,000 150,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Q3/2017 Q3/2018 Q3/2019 Q3/2020 Q3/2021 Q3/2022
Slide 52: If P&C – key IFRS 17 considerations
If P&C – key IFRS 17 considerations Slide from IFRS 17 restatement deck Under IFRS 17, If’s full claims reserves will be discounted • Increased 2022 PBT under IFRS 17 as full LIC* is discounted, which c40% of enhances the benefit of the rise in interest rates over the year reserves IFRS 4 IFRS 17 •
Slide 53: Topdanmark
Topdanmark 8 November 2023 53
Slide 54: Results and key figures by quarter
Results and key figures by quarter EURm Q3/2023 Q2/2023 Q1/2023 Q4/2022 Q3/2022 Q2/2022 Q1/2022 Gross written premiums 252 242 604 221 245 245 597 Insurance revenue, net 321 317 318 315 313 315 312 Claims incurred, net -217 -200 -203 -195 -202 -180 -232 Operating expenses and claims handling costs -
Slide 55: Hastings
Hastings 8 November 2023 55
Slide 56: Operating ratio and loss ratio development
Operating ratio and loss ratio development Operating ratio Loss ratio 100% 100% IFRS 4 IFRS 4 IFRS 17 IFRS 17 95% 95% 90.5 % 90% 89.7 % 83.7 % 90% 87.5 % 87.4 % 87.2 % 87.1 % 85% 82.6 % 80% 76.5 % 85% 80.3 % 75% 80% 70% 63.9 % 65% 62.2 % 75% 60% 57.2 % 54.3 % 70% 55% 50% 65% 45% 60% 40% 2019 2020 20
Slide 57: Profit before taxes by quarter (consolidated)
Profit before taxes by quarter (consolidated) EURm 80 69 70 60 15 54 50 11 40 40 36 15 30 15 24 54 21 22 20 43 5 14 25 15 10 21 17 10 6 0 Q1/22 Q2/22 Q3/22 Q4/22 Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 Profit before taxes Non-operational D&A Figures for 2022 restated for IFRS 17 but not for IFRS 9. The quarterly run rate
Slide 58: Results and key figures by quarter
Results and key figures by quarter EURm Q3/2023 Q2/2023 Q1/2023 Q4/2022 Q3/2022 Q2/2022 Q1/2022 Gross written premiums 467 435 363 328 380 331 275 Other income from insurance contracts 59 60 53 54 53 53 54 Insurance revenue, net 296 272 246 255 228 222 184 Claims incurred and claims handling costs,
Slide 59: LCP and market share development
LCP and market share development Live customer policies Private car market share Million 9% 4.0 8.3% 8.4% 8.1% 8.2% 8% 7.7% 3.4 7.5% 3.5 7.3% 3.1 3.2 3.1 7% 2.8 0.51 6.5% 3.0 0.27 0.31 0.41 2.6 2.7 5.8% 0.21 6% 2.3 0.16 2.5 0.17 2.0 0.17 5% 2.0 0.13 4% 1.5 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 3% 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.2 1.0 1.9
Slide 60: Hastings – key IFRS 17 considerations
Hastings – key IFRS 17 considerations Hastings: additional revenue included in insurance services result Slide from IFRS 17 restatement deck 295 889 • On transition to IFRS 17, certain items, such as internal broker 594 revenue, are moved into insurance revenue Inclusion of internal • As a result, t
Slide 61: Holding & other
Holding & other 8 November 2023 61
Slide 62: Sampo plc balance sheet, 30 September 2023
Sampo plc balance sheet, 30 September 2023 Assets total, EURm 7,764 Liabilities total, EURm 7,764 Liquidity 700 CPs issued 0 Investment assets 944 LT senior debt 971 Real estate 2 Private placements 9 Fixed income 0 Bonds issued 962 Equity and private equity 941 Subordinated debt 1,490 Equity holdin
Slide 63: Sampo Group overview
Sampo Group overview 8 November 2023 63
Slide 64: Sampo’s P&C operations have a uniquely attractive profile
Sampo’s P&C operations have a uniquely attractive profile Gross written premiums: EUR 8.1 billion Private Commercial Industrial Baltic UK EUR 3.7 bn EUR 2.0 bn EUR 0.9 bn EUR 0.2 bn EUR 1.3 bn Combined ratio: 82.1% Underwriting profit: EUR 1.3 bn UW profit CAGR: 11% ✓ Leading digital sales and ✓ Str
Slide 65: P&C Insurance market shares
P&C Insurance market shares 22% Sweden Q2/2023 18% Nordics 20% Norway Q2/2023 Gjensidige 26% LF 31% If & Topdanmark 20% If 22% If 18% Tryg 15% Fremtid 15% Tryg 17% LF 9% Tryg 14% Folksam 16% Gjensidige 9% Storebrand 5% Others 18% OP 5% Others 18% Others 41% 6% 21% Finland Denmark Q2/2023 16% Finland
Slide 66: Sampo plc’s ownership structure 30 September 2023
Sampo plc’s ownership structure 30 September 2023 Largest Finnish-registered shareholders Ownership development 230,000 70% Solidium Oy 6.63%* 210,000 68% 190,000 Varma Mutual Pension Insurance Company 4.43% 66% 170,000 Ilmarinen Mutual Pension Insurance Company 150,000 64% 1.23% Oy Lival AB 0.76% 1
Slide 67: Sampo Group ESG overview
Sampo Group ESG overview 8 November 2023 67
Slide 68: Allocation of investments according to ESG risk categories
Allocation of direct fixed income and equity investments according to the ESG risk categories, Sampo Group excluding Mandatum, Topdanmark and Hastings 30 September 2023 Weighted average ESG risk rating of Sampo Group’s direct fixed income and equity investments (0-100) 18 Severe Risk Market value of
Slide 69: Sampo plc’s ESG ratings
Sampo plc’s ESG ratings Target: To be rated in the top quartile within the industry among the leading rating agencies’ rankings. Examples of ESG rating agencies Rating and scale Rating distribution and/or ranking Prime Rating of Sampo plc: 55/100 Percentile rank of Sampo plc: 84 Industry average: 31
Slide 70: If P&C – ESG in underwriting and ambitious climate targets
If P&C – ESG in underwriting and ambitious climate targets ESG framework for underwriting Science Based Target initiative (SBTi) SBTi is a joint initiative between the UN, WWF, CDP and World Resources Institute If’s internal framework for ESG in underwriting: If P&C has committed to the Science Base
Slide 71: Investor Presentation January – September 2023
Investor Presentation January – September 2023 Sampo plc Fabianinkatu 27 00100 Helsinki, Finland Phone: +358 10 516 0100 Business ID: 0142213-3 www.sampo.com @Sampo_plc sampo-plc sampo_oyj 8 November 2023 71