First Citizens N.b. Upper Sandusky · OTC:FSDK
First Citizens N.b. Upper Sandusky — First Citizens National Bank — Investor Presentation (August 2022)
51 slides from First Citizens N.b. Upper Sandusky's investor presentation, Aug 23, 2022
Slide 1: 2022 Economic State and the Impact of Inflation
2022 Economic State and the Impact of Inflation Tuesday, August 23, 2022 – 8:30am Hosted by Frank Reinhard, Regional President – Delaware Market, and The First Citizens National Bank Welcome!
Slide 2: Welcome!
Welcome! As the past several weeks have shown, the business climate across the world continues to be tumultuous and uncertain. Because we are a trusted partner in our local communities, we’re honored to provide expert resources to the community through our Business First Content Series. As you may h
Slide 3: Today's Speakers
Today’s Speakers: Dr. Goran Skosples is an Associate Professor of Economics at Ohio Wesleyan University. Goran received his PhD in Economics at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Campaign. Goran has been at OWU since 2006 and his teaching focus includes comparative economics systems, macroeconomic
Slide 4: The State of the Economy
The First Citizens National Bank The State of the Economy Goran Skosples August 23, 2022
Slide 5: GDP
GDP Real GDP: Percent change from preceding quarter 4 Seiiil. | l LJ l if J aaa still -2 4 -6 Q2 Q3 Q4 Qi Q2 Q3 Q4 Qi Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Ql 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
Slide 6: GDP
GDP • Q1 2022: -1.6% • Q2 2022: -0.9% (Est)
Slide 7: Yield Curve Inversion
Yield Curve Inversion FRED 2gé — 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity 3 2 | | a) — 2 Ww v A 2 3 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis fred_.stlouisfed.org
Slide 8: Yield Curve Inversion
Yield Curve Inversion FRED oe — 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (left) — S&P 500 (right) 2.0 ; PO pce 5,600 4,800 1.0 wf 4,000 5 boo ‘eh \n of" 0s yen w dy 3,200 A PRY m wv \dhy oat in \a 0.0 wr hy 2,400 05 1,600 2019-05 2019-09 2020-01 2020-05 2020-09 2021
Slide 9: Probability of Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve
Probability of Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve Click/drag to zoom = Probability of recession == Forecast Fol Eee EEE EEE EEEESEE EEE ESSEETESEESSSSE OSES SOESESSSCSOEOSOS SESE SSSSSOSSOSOSSOSESOSOSSOSOSOCSOSOSSOSOSOSOOSOSOSOOESSOSSOSOLOCSOSOSOOTESOSOSOSOSOSEOSOSSSSOCOSESSOSSOSOSOOOSOSSSOSO
Slide 10: UM Consumer Sentiment
UM Consumer Sentiment Preliminary Results for August 2022 Aug Jul Aug M-M 2022 2022 # 2021 Change Index of Consumer Sentiment 55.1 51.5 70.3 +7.0% Current Economic Conditions 55.5 58.1 78.5 -4.5% Index of Consumer Expectations 54.9 47.3 65.1 +16.1%
Slide 11: Unemployment
Unemployment FRED agf — Unemployment Rate 15.0 125 10.0 Percent 75 5.0 == ed 25 Jul 2017 Jan 2018 Jul 2018 dan 2019 Jul 2019 Jan 2020 Jul 2020 Jan 2021 Jul 2021 Jan 2022 Jul 2022 Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics fred.stlouisfed.org
Slide 12: Labor Force Participation Rate
Labor Force Participation Rate • Jul 22 compared to Feb 22: 576k less employed
Slide 13: Inflation
Inflation FRED agé — Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average 15.0 ¢ July 22: 8.5% 125 10.0 75 5.0 Percent Change from Year Ago 25 0.0 25 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisti
Slide 14: All items
All items Food Food at home Food away from home(1) Energy Energy commodities Gasoline (all types) Fuel oil(1) Energy services Electricity Utility (piped) gas service All items less food and energy Commodities less food and energy commodities New vehicles Used cars and trucks Apparel Medical care com
Slide 15: Supply Chain Issues
Supply Chain Issues FRED agi — Current Delivery Time; Diffusion Index for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia 50 40 : MUI pat saeco Mtorg Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan2012 9 Jan2013. 0 Jan2014 0 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 = Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Index S
Slide 16: Pain at the Pump
Pain at the Pump • June 2022: • July 2008: • $5.065 • $4.054 • $5.46 in current prices
Slide 17: Oil
Oil FRED 22 — crue oi Prices: west Texas intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma 140 120 100 Dollars per Barrel 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration fred_stlouisfed_org
Slide 18: Oil Industry
Oil Industry FRED ~ — All Employees, Oil and Gas Extraction (left) — Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oktahoma (right) 210 150 200 135 190 120 o 180 105 r= s 5 170 90 = 2 160 75 $ = 5 g 150 60 3 F140 45 130 30 120 15 110 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2
Slide 19: Housing
Housing FRED ag — Housing Inventory: Active Listing Count in Ohio 52,000 48,000 44,000 40,000 36,000 32,000 Level 28,000 24,000 20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 Jan 2017 Jul 2017 Jan 2018 Jul 2018 Jan 2019 Jul 2019 Jan 2020 Jul 2020 Jan 2021 Jul 2021 Jan 2022 Jul 2022 Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions
Slide 20: Housing
Housing FRED ae — New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits for Ohio 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 Units 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions. Source: U.S. Census Bureau fred_stlouisfed_org
Slide 21: Food/Farming
Food/Farming Price of a bushel of corn • 8/2021: 5.50 • 8/2022: 6.26 • Prices of corn, wheat, and soybeans have fallen since May 2022 • Not good news for the Ohio farmers • Good news for inflation
Slide 22: Immigration
Immigration irket 1.2 mil 13% million decrease in w ease in working age issued between t nigrants between and July : h 2020 and Dec 2021 of the agriculture industry is comprised of immigrants Source: Cato Institute, Migration Policy Institute, and Econ, BOUNDLESS
Slide 23: Labor Force Share, by Age Group
Labor Force Share, by Age Group, 2000, 2010, 2020 and Projected 2030 Percent distribution of the labor force* ag RE es = 6s 206 cise 17.0 55 to 64 80% 15.6 m45 to 54 m 35 to 44 60% ' 25 to 34 w 16 to 24 40% : 20 218 20% : aa) 21.3 ee ie ao 0% 2000 2010 2020 Projected 2030 *Data may not sum to 100 pe
Slide 24: Top Fastest Growing Occupations, Excluding Pandemic Recovery
Top 10 Fastest Growing Occupations, Excluding Pandemic Recovery* Wind turbine service technicians Nurse practitioners Solar photovoltaic installers Statisticians Physical therapist assistants Information security analysts Home health and personal care aides Medical and health services managers Data
Slide 25: Assets Inflation
Assets Inflation FRED -/ — 4,300 4,400 “a we 3,200 Index . ae alia Ww 1,600 an 4,200 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions. Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC fred.stlouisfed.org
Slide 26: Assets Inflation
Assets Inflation FRED ~/ — s#?icase-shitier v.s. National Home Price index 320 300 280 260 240 Index Jan 2000=100 140 120 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC fred.stlouisfed.org
Slide 27: Inflation Reduction Act of 2022
Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 Expected cost: $485b Expected revenue: $790b • Environmental elements • Health care measures • Clean electricity tax credits • Taxes on corporations • Individual clean energy • Tax enforcement initiatives • Other energy initiatives • Health care measures • Expansion o
Slide 28: Geopolitics
Geopolitics War in Ukraine • 6 months long • Growing dissatisfaction with costs/inflation • Natural gas in Europe 15x higher • Food prices very high in developing world (Sri Lanka) China/Taiwan • Price of imports • Covid-19 policies
Slide 29: EU member states
EU member states RUSSIA LITHUANIA » Moscow POLAND BELARUS ROMANIA MOLDOVA
Slide 30: Slide 30
Slide 31: Fertilizer Giants
Fertilizer Giants Canada, Russia were the top potash producers in 2021 Metric tons Canada Russia Belarus China Germany Israel Jordan Chile U.S. Spain Laos Brazil Country Source: USGS 2022 Mineral Commodity Summary Note: Volumes are USGS estimates. Bloomberg
Slide 32: Marginal Production Cost, 2014
Marginal Production Cost, 2014 Cost of producing an additional barret of oit (USD/bb!) Country Exploration Type Arctic Marginal Production Cost 120 18 110 103 90
Slide 33: Any questions?
Any questions? • We’ll answer as many questions as we can, with both speakers now and at the end of the presentation. • Simply raise your hand to ask a question and our speakers and/or moderator will call on you. • We may limit this Q&A session, but will be sure to hold time at the end of the presen
Slide 34: Intermission
Intermission We’ll plan to reconvene in 5-10 minutes to begin the second portion of our presentation today. © 2022 First Citizens National Bank | 2022 Economy and Inflation 34 Presentation
Slide 35: Economic Overview
Economic Overview Citizens National Bank August 23, 2022 Bill LaFayette, Ph.D., owner, Regionomics® LLC
Slide 36: Columbus MSA
Columbus MSA
Slide 37: Employment
Employment Total Employment Change, Historical and Forecasts February 2020 - September 2023 105 Pe anneal 100 2 2 a & Oot = oz02/z :xpul 85 80 et/8 27/9 ee/b e7/z weer ze/or w/e zz/9 tb w/z Teer Tz/ot Tes Tz/9 Te/b —*=Columbus MSA. —e=Ohio —#=US Te/z oz/et oz/ot 02/8 02/9 O¢/y oz/z
Slide 38: Employment
Employment Transportation & Utilities Employment Change February 2020 - July 2022 135 130 125 120 115 OT = Tz02/z :xapul 95 90 85 tlk w/o t/s w/v tele cele t/t Te/et Te/tt Te/or 1/6 12/8 Tele Te/9 Te/s Te/b Te/e Tee Te/T oz/et 0z/tt oz/ot 07/6 07/8 oz/e 02/9 oz/s ot/y oz/ oz/z —*Columbus MSA. —e=Ohi
Slide 39: Employment
Employment Professional and Business Services Employment Change February 2020 - July 2022 110 105 100 OT = Tz02/z :xapul 2 & 85 80 tlk w/o t/s w/v tele cele t/t Te/et Te/tt Te/or 1/6 12/8 Tele Te/9 Te/s Te/b Te/e Tee Te/T oz/et 0z/tt oz/ot 07/6 07/8 oz/e 02/9 oz/s ot/y oz/ oz/z —*Columbus MSA. —e=Oh
Slide 40: Employment
Employment State Government Employment Change February 2020 - July 2022 105 2 2 a & OT = Tz02/z :xapul 85 80 tlk w/o t/s w/v tele cele t/t Te/et Te/tt Te/or 1/6 12/8 Tele Te/9 Te/s Te/b Te/e Tee Te/T oz/et 0z/tt oz/ot 07/6 07/8 oz/e 02/9 oz/s ot/y oz/ oz/z —*Columbus MSA. —e=Ohio —e=US
Slide 41: Employment
Employment Finance and Insurance Employment Change February 2020 - July 2022 110 108 106 g 8 8 & S OT = Tz02/z :xapul 94 92 90 tlk w/o t/s w/v tele cele t/t Te/et Te/tt Te/or 1/6 12/8 Tele Te/9 Te/s Te/b Te/e Tee Te/T oz/et 0z/tt oz/ot 07/6 07/8 oz/e 02/9 oz/s ot/y oz/ oz/z —*Columbus MSA. —e=Ohio —
Slide 42: Labor force
Labor force
Slide 43: Labor force
Labor force 68% 66% 64% 62% 60% 58% 56% 2010 2011 2012 2013 Participation Rates, Ohio and U.S. January 2010 - July 2022 8 & 8 —ohio —u.s. 2014 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Slide 44: Small business
Small business
Slide 45: The role of local industries
The role of local industries Chain Retail Average Locally-Owned Retail Average Leakage, 52.3% Leakage, 86.4% Retention, 13.6% Retention, 47.7%
Slide 46: The role of local industries
The role of local industries Chain Restaurant Average Locally-Owned Restaurant Average Leakage, 69.6% Retention, 30.4% Retention, 64.9% Leakage, 35.1%
Slide 47: Three troubling numbers
Three troubling numbers Out of the 100 largest MSAs, Columbus ranks: 86th in the share of self-employed workers 84th in the percentage of businesses that are small (<20) 74th in the small business birthrate
Slide 48: Thank you!
Thank you! Bill LaFayette, Ph.D. (614) 654.2151 www.regionomicsllc.com www.facebook.com/Regionomics www.linkedin.com/company/regionomics-llc
Slide 49: We Welcome Your Questions!
We Welcome Your Questions! • We’ll answer as many questions as we can, with both speakers. • Simply raise your hand to ask a question and our speakers and/or moderator will call on you. © 2022 First Citizens National Bank | 2022 Economy and Inflation 49 Presentation
Slide 50: Speaker Series Upcoming Event Information
KEY TAKEAWAYS Speaker Series Upcoming Event Information This concludes our presentation. In the coming months, we’ll be providing additional key insights and content, events and expert articles based on the top concerns local businesses have identified. We invite you to follow us on LinkedIn and Fac
Slide 51: Thank you!
Thank you! The FIRST CITIZENS J S719 NATIONAL BANK
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