Duke Energy Corporation (Holding Company) · NYSE:DUK
Duke Energy Corporation (Holding Company) — Corporate Update (April 2020)
41 slides from Duke Energy Corporation (Holding Company)'s corporate update, Apr 16, 2020
Slide 1: IRP Forum: 2020 Integrated Resource Plans
IRP Forum 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANS DUKE ENERGY CAROLINAS & DUKE ENERGY PROGRESS April 16, 2020
Slide 2: Today's Agenda
Today’s Agenda April 16, 2020 9:00 AM-9:50 AM IRP and Stakeholder Engagement Overview 9:50 AM-10:30 AM Resource Evaluation 10:30 AM-10:40 AM Break 10:40 AM-11:20 AM Carbon Reduction in the IRP 11:20 AM-12:00 PM Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Welcome! 2
Slide 3: Some Reminders
Some Reminders ▪ We kindly request everyone mute their lines until asked to speak later in the forum. ▪ We will unmute participants during the breakout sessions, but participants should mute themselves until directed to speak. ▪ Participants may also submit questions throughout the forum via the que
Slide 4: National Landscape of Utility Planning
National Landscape of Utility Planning
Slide 5: What is an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and why does it matter?
What is an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and why does it matter? ▪ An IRP is a “roadmap” that identifies strategies for a utility to meet future energy and demand requirements while considering the associated risks and benefits to customers. ▪ An IRP identifies a cost-effective set of supply and de
Slide 6: Majority of States in the US Require an IRP Filing
Majority of States in the US Require an IRP Filing 39 states have requirements for filing IRP or long- term plans Source: 1) Integrated Resource Planning Slides (June 11, 2019), Regulatory Assistance Project; 2) ICF Analysis 6
Slide 7: Emerging Trends in IRP
Emerging Trends in IRP 7
Slide 8: Utility Resource Planning Trends 2020
Utility Resource Planning Trends 2020 Move to Clean Expanding Technologies Energy ▪ States, localities, and corporations ▪ Increased emphasis on new and moving toward renewables or net-zero emerging technologies ▪ Many utilities have incorporated carbon ▪ Energy storage still has high costs, but pot
Slide 9: Utility Resource Planning Trends 2020
Utility Resource Planning Trends 2020 Stakeholders Integration Matter ▪ Resource and transmission planning ▪ Utilities more proactively engaging integrated with more robust stakeholders on key focus areas distribution planning processes ▪ Receiving stakeholder input upfront ▪ Enhanced modeling and a
Slide 10: IRP Process in the Carolinas
IRP Process in the Carolinas 10
Slide 11: Duke Energy's IRP Goals: Affordable, Reliable and Increasingly Clean
Duke Energy’s IRP Goals: Affordable, Reliable and Increasingly Clean These three pillars guide Duke Energy’s planning process and are subject to state and federal regulatory and legislative requirements: ▪ State regulatory commissions ▪ State legislation ▪ FERC: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
Slide 12: IRP Process Overview
IRP Process Overview Growth in ▪ Changes in Load Forecast Customer ▪ Impacts of Energy Efficiency (EE), INPUTS Consumption electrification and rooftop solar ▪ Plant Retirement Resource Retirements ▪ Purchase Power Contract Expiration • MODELING Production Cost Model • Expansion Plan Model • Resource
Slide 13: Duke Energy's IRP Aligns with the Nationally Emerging Trends
Duke Energy’s IRP Aligns with the Nationally Emerging Trends • In the 2019 IRP, Duke Energy considered the impacts of SC Act 62, SC Environmental Act 236 and NC HB 589 and NC REPS on renewable generation expansions in NC and SC, including Duke Energy territories. The 2019 Regulation IRPs also suppor
Slide 14: Duke Energy's IRP Stakeholder Engagement
Duke Energy’s IRP Stakeholder Engagement 14
Slide 15: Recap of Duke's March IRP Forum
Recap of Duke’s March 17 IRP Forum Attendees Entities represented Questions asked 72 48 56 Total ▪ Participation from both NC ▪ Guided discussion during Stakeholder Category Attendees and SC stakeholders each of the breakout sessions Environmental 19 ▪ Representation from public, ▪ Duke followed up
Slide 16: Duke's 2020 IRP Stakeholder Engagement
Duke’s 2020 IRP Stakeholder Engagement Jan – Apr 4/16 – 5/1 9/1 Duke collects stakeholder feedback via Duke collects additional listening sessions, surveys, and stakeholder feedback Duke files intervenor comments on IRP data inputs 2020 IRP Today January 2020 3/10 3/17 Early June Duke hosts IRP Duke
Slide 17: Today's Forum Reflects Stakeholder Feedback
Today’s Forum Reflects Stakeholder Feedback What Duke has heard How Duke is responding from stakeholders ▪ Increase opportunities for ▪ Dedicated more time for stakeholder dialogue stakeholder dialogue and ▪ Minimize upfront level- expanded opportunities for Forum structure setting presentations act
Slide 18: Breakout Sessions Preview
Breakout Sessions Preview 18
Slide 19: Breakout Session Schedule
Breakout Session Schedule 9:50 AM-10:30 AM Resource Evaluation 10:30 AM-10:40 AM Break 10:40 AM-11:20 AM Carbon Reduction in the IRP 11:20 AM-12:00 PM Energy Efficiency and Demand Response 19
Slide 20: Some Reminders
Some Reminders • Please mute your audio until the moderator instructs you to unmute. • Duke SMEs to provide a short introduction on each topic, followed by active dialogue with participants. • During each session, participants will vote on the topics of greatest interest for further discussion. • Pa
Slide 21: Resource Evaluation
Resource Evaluation 9:50 AM to 10:30 AM 21
Slide 22: Determining the Cost-Effective Resource Mixes
Determining the Cost- Effective Resource Mixes Why are new resources considered? Technology Evaluation Process Resource Selection and Verification ▪ Capacity Expansion and Hourly Production Cost Modeling Considerations: ▪ Load Forecast ▪ Existing Resources ▪ New Resources ▪ Reliability ▪ Integration
Slide 23: What are the Key Data Sources?
What are the Key Data Sources? Inputs Source Duke Energy Load Forecasting utilizing Moody Analytics, Load NOAA, EIA, etc. Existing Generation Duke Energy Fossil-Hydro and Nuclear Engineering Demand-Side Resources Nexant Market Potential Study and internal program plans New Traditional Generation Bur
Slide 24: Factors Impacting Resource Evaluation For 2020 IRP
Factors Impacting Resource Evaluation For 2020 IRP Carbon Coal Retirement Reserve Margin Reductions and Analysis Study Climate Plans Future Evaluation Diversity of of Emerging Valuing Storage Variable Energy Technologies Resources Duke encourages stakeholders to provide suggestions on evaluation met
Slide 25: Please vote for which topics you want to discuss
Please vote for which topics you want to discuss! • Assumptions about data inputs (e.g., cost and performance of new resources over time, fuel prices, CO2 prices, solar and wind profiles) • Suggestions for alternate data sources • Modeling tool algorithm – how it captures dispatch and plant economic
Slide 26: Short Break
Short Break Please join us at 10:40 AM for our next session on Carbon Reduction in the IRP 26
Slide 27: Carbon Reduction in the IRP
Carbon Reduction in the IRP 10:40 AM to 11:20 AM 27
Slide 28: Carbon Policy Evaluation
Carbon Policy Evaluation A range of carbon trajectories will be evaluated in the 2020 IRP Duke Energy’s Climate Strategy will be a central theme: ▪ Clear line of sight to achieving at least 50% CO2 reduction by 2030 ▪ Robust discussion within the IRP document of emerging technologies that will be re
Slide 29: Process for Evaluating Carbon Reduction
Process for Evaluating Carbon Reduction Historically, evaluated multiple resource portfolios under three carbon futures driven by a range of CO2 allowance prices. ▪ No CO2 ▪ Base CO2 - 35 $/ton 2035 ▪ High CO2 – 75 $/ton 2035 2020 IRP – Drivers for range of carbon *Figure A-3 from 2018 DEC and DEP f
Slide 30: Technological Development needed to achieve Net Zero
Technological Development needed to achieve Net Zero Natural Gas CTs & CCs: ▪ Flexibility – lower minimum loads, faster ramps, min up and down time ▪ Next Gen Turbine – more efficient with the ability to use Hydrogen, biogas, or blends Renewables: ▪ Flexibility - ability to curtail and contribution
Slide 31: Please vote for which topics you want to discuss
Please vote for which topics you want to discuss! • Cost implications of carbon reductions and policies • Key considerations to ensure Duke hits its carbon reduction goals • Sensitivities to assess the risks of alternative carbon reduction paths • How to capture uncertainty in technological developm
Slide 32: Energy Efficiency and Demand Response
Energy Efficiency and Demand Response 11:20 AM to 12:00 PM 32
Slide 33: EE Forecast Methodology
EE Forecast Methodology Annual kWh savings The long-term portion of projections from the the IRP EE forecast (years Company’s five-year EE 2030-35) will use the program plan will serve as annual kWh projections the first five-years of the from the 2020 Nexant IRP EE savings forecast Market Potential
Slide 34: 2020 Market Potential Study
2020 Market Potential Study A Market Potential Study (MPS) performed by Nexant is nearly complete. Final Reports are expected by the end of April. Results of this MPS will be used to inform the long-range EE and DR (Demand Response) forecasts. The MPS will provide a “Base” and “Enhanced” Achievable
Slide 35: Summer or Winter Peaking?
Summer or Winter Peaking? -Load definition changes -Natural Gas Availability -Solar Summer Peaking Winter Peaking Changes in residential, commercial, and industrial mix, combined with the availability of substitute energy sources, can be key drivers for peaks to switch from summer to winter, and vic
Slide 36: In-depth Winter Peak Reduction Assessment
In-depth Winter Peak Reduction Assessment Based on stakeholder feedback, would a deeper look at potential winter peak load reduction opportunities be of value? The study would: ▪ Consider the integration of new rate designs and innovative program designs to drive winter peak focused reductions ▪ Lev
Slide 37: Integrated Programmatic View
Integrated Programmatic View Target load shapes that align with winter peak demand needs ▪ Potential load reducing, load shifting and peak clipping programs Drive increased benefits with integrated approach ▪ Design programs to work with new pricing structures ▪ Reward customers who provide ongoing
Slide 38: Considerations
Considerations While the 2020 IRP can account for initial findings of the study, continued learnings and development can inform future IRPs Recommendations could include: ▪ Potential enhancements to existing DEP and DEC programs to achieve near- term peak reductions ▪ Additional strategies that may
Slide 39: Please vote for which topics you want to discuss
Please vote for which topics you want to discuss! • Options for winter peak demand reduction • Thoughts/suggestions regarding enhanced EE program designs and alternative rate programs • Sensitivity modeling to account for uncertainty in DR growth and retention at high usage 39
Slide 40: IRP Stakeholder Activities
IRP Stakeholder Activities 2020 IRP Engagement Timeline Pre-Engagement Intervenor comments, survey, listening sessions IRP 101 March 10 IRP Forum #1 March 17 – All-virtual session IRP Forum #1 Received attendee feedback via survey after the forum Feedback IRP Forum #2 April 16 – All-virtual session
Slide 41: Thank you for joining!
ef, DUKE we” ENERGY. BUILDING A SMARTER ENERGY FUTURE™ 41