Otp Bank Nyrt · BET:OTP
Otp Bank Nyrt — OTP Bank — Q1 2004 Earnings Presentation
36 slides from Otp Bank Nyrt's earnings presentation, May 2004
Slide 1: OTP Bank First Quarter 2004 Performance
OTP Bank First Quarter 2004 Performance Based on HAR Presented by: Dr. Zoltán Spéder CFO May 2004
Slide 2: Forward looking statements
Forward looking statements This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements with respect to the financial condition, results of operations, and businesses of OTP Bank. These statements and forecasts involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend upon circumstances
Slide 3: Interest rate environment 2003-2004
Interest rate environment 2003-2004 14% 25-25 bp rate decrease 23/03/04 300 bp rate increase and 6/04/04 13% 28 November 200 bp rate increase 12% 19 June 100-100 bp rate cut to defend HUF 11% 16&17 January 10% 100 bp rate increase 11 June 9% 8% 7% 6% inverse yield curve 3M rate + 300 bp wider repo b
Slide 4: EUR/HUF environment 2003-2004
EUR/HUF environment 2003-2004 n inf icy to as e volatility due to M II n on latio contradictory actions s p ec ed incre 274 0% ulati anno of ER ol and statements by ew f or push g HUF p d government -1% R en un c e rate u n dow g appr lative r 269 -2% timin n n ey a l o f iatio n as e st r o -3% „ho
Slide 5: Evolution of banking system
Evolution of banking system Intermediation started to grow due to mortgage lending and HUF bn wage increases 20,000 100% 18,000 18,600 90% 16,000 16,980 80% 72.9% 65.3% 14,900 14,000 65.1% 65.1% 64.0% 64.5% 63.8% 70% 63.9% 12,000 60% 13,075 11,499 10,000 50% 42.4% 10,087 8,000 8,540 35.8% 40% 32.3%
Slide 6: Loan growth (Y-on-Y)
Loan growth* (Y-on-Y) Corporate Municipality shift from FX to HUF shift from HUF 70% 45% 42% to FX 58% 40% 37% 60% 35% 50% 35% 48% 50% 45% 46% 30% 27% 26% 42% 38% 30% 24% 40% 25% 20% 32% 27% 28% 20% 17% 30% 36% 36% 15% 14% 13% 31% 20% 29% 30% 15% 20%19% 20% 25% 26% 26% 25% 15% 12% 10% 7% 7% 21% 12%
Slide 7: Rising Real Wages
Rising Real Wages Retail Loans Outstanding (HUF billion) vs. Real Wage Growth 1,600 20% 1,400 13.6% 1,376 15% 1,200 10% 7.2% 9.4% 6.4% 4.9% 1,000 3.6% 5% 2.5% 1.5% 802 802 800 -1.4% 0% -3.9% 684 -5.0% 600 -7.0% 551 -5% 410 400 -12.2% 336 -10% 287 176 196 189 172 184 195 200 170 153 -15% 140139 130 1
Slide 8: Macro: Selected components of RFA
Macro: Selected components of RFA HUF bn 4,500 80% 31-Dec-97 31-Dec-03 CAGR (Rh-scale) 4,039 4,000 70% 3,500 60% 61.4% 3,000 50% 2,500 40% 28.9% 2,000 30% 22.0% 1,639 Strong growth in 16.5% 11% non-banking savings 1,500 15.1% 20% 1,234 1,099 1,016 1,000 10% 1.9% 668 706 -0.1% 589 494 525 474 -9.2% 5
Slide 9: Macro assessment
Macro assessment 2003 2004F 2005F Real GDP growth 2.9% 3.6% 3.6% Inflation (average) 4.7% 6.7% 4.5% Nominal wage increase 14.3% 7.0% 6.0% Final consumption 5.9% 2.3% 1.9% Household consumption 6.5% 2.8% 2.0% Investment growth 4.7% 8.1% 7.4% Budget deficit (cash flow based) HUF -1,064 bn HUF -1,285 b
Slide 10: Market share–total assets
Market share–total assets Mortgage lending causes HUF bn strong increase in bank system’s B/S 14,000 28% 26.1% 26.2% 26.2% 26.3% 25.1% 25.3% 24.5% 24.3% 23.9% 24.1% 12,000 23.9% 23.5% 23.5% 25% 23.3% 10,000 23.2% 22% 22.8% 22.8% 22.7% 22.7% 22.3% 22.3% 22.5% 22.1% 22.1% 20.7% 21.0% 18.1% 20.3% 20.1%
Slide 11: Balance sheet, interest income
Balance sheet, interest income HUF bn Assets, liabilities HUF bn Loans, deposits 3,000 +9.8% 2,500 +6.7% 2,235 2,213 2,074 2,500 2,000 421 411 2,000 387 +6.0% 1,500 1,500 1,020 1,094 1,082 2,241 2,218 1,000 1,000 2,082 1,656 1,646 1,517 580 691 676 500 964 1,088 1,077 500 323 318 322 0 0 1Q03 1Q03 1
Slide 12: Non interest income
Non interest income Driver: Non interest income components Fee and commission income mortgage HUF bn HUF bn lending +30.2% 30 +27.2% 27.5 30 27.0 26.4 Other 23.8 25 25 20.7 6.0 6.2 20.8 Property 20 20 transactions 4.8 15 15 Forex 10 trading 10.3 10.7 23 24 6.9 10 5 19 Securities 2.2 2.7 2.3 trading
Slide 13: Non interest expenses
Non interest expenses Non interest expenses Cost/income ratio HUF bn 40 70% 35.962 66% +9.8% 62% 30 24.961 58% 19.0 - 760 bp 22.734 54% 20 50% 12.0 65.0% 11.2 2.1 46% 42% 2.2 10 2.8 38% 48.3% 14.9 40.7% 8.7 10.7 34% 30% 0 1Q 03 4Q 03 1Q 04 1Q 03 4Q 03 1Q 04 personnel depreciation operational cost in
Slide 14: Provisioning/loan losses
Provisioning/loan losses HUF mn Provisioning structure Provisioning/Operating income 6,000 917 29.7% 5,000 30% 25% 4,000 +35.3% 330 20% 3,000 358 15% 12.1% 2,000 4,366 11.0% 3,174 10% 2,582 1,000 5% 0 0% 1Q 03 4Q 03 1Q 04 1Q 03 4Q 03 1Q 04 Loan loss Other General risk provisions&loan losses / operat
Slide 15: Loan quality
Loan quality Qualified receivables as Qualified receivables as % of total receivables % of customer receivables 8% 6% 5% 1.6% 6% 2.1% 1.4% 1.4% 1.1% 4% 1.6% 1.2% 1.5% 1.1% 2.7% 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 2.2% 1.7% 1.3% 1.8% 4% 1.4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.8% 3.4% 3.9% 3.7% 3.4% 3.8% 3.9% 2.6% 2.6% 3.0% 2.7% 3.2
Slide 16: Loan quality
Loan quality HUF bn Qualified loans HUF bn Provisions, coverage 60 7 60 60% 11 8 8 8 48.0% 50 15 50 50% 9 6 17 40.4%40.3% 40.1% 40 15 37.8% 37.3% 16 15 40 36.9% 40% 18 17 35.9% 13 17 33.3% 18 18 63.2 30 30 30% 4 57.1 57.3 55.7 55.0 55.8 10 51.4 50.5 15 12 13 19 47.3 6 12 20 3 20 20% 26 10 21 22.7 23
Slide 17: Retail deposits
Retail deposits HUF bn Volumes, market share HUF bn Retail current account deposits 700 652 1,600 48% 581 558 557 570 600 538 491 491 500 422 415 1,400 46% 374 400 312 1,4 10 1,4 11 296 280 302 300 253 245 244 1,2 7 9 1,2 7 5 200 1,200 1,2 5 9 1,2 5 5 44% 100 1,113 1,13 8 0 1,0 9 8 1,000 42% 31- 30-
Slide 18: Retail loans
Retail loans HUF bn Volumes, market share Housing loans HUF bn 300 70% 800 273 Existing loans also 600 transferred to OTPMB 250 57.1% 6 0 % 400 2 12 200 200 201 200 19 5 50% 18 7 18 4 18 0 0 Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 15 2 37.2% 4 0 % 15 0 Old 1989 1994 2
Slide 19: Mortgage Loans at OTP Group
Mortgage Loans at OTP Group Cumulative HUF bn. Monthly 43.8 43.2 900 45 40.4 38.9 800 40 34.7 34.9 35.3 34.5 35.2 34.9 700 32.9 71 35 32.2 32.1 72 31.2 69 29.6 29.4 71 600 28.5 69 28.2 30 26.3 70 25 82 24 500 77 25 82 20.9 76 400 18.5 20 92 86 86 650 669 300 605 627 15 82 575 542 10.3 83 494 88 459
Slide 20: OTP Mortgage Bank selected data
OTP Mortgage Bank selected data All data as of 31 March 2004 Distribution of mortgage portfolio by size Distribution of portfolio by maturity 3.3% 3.2% 3.5% 25.9% 0.0% 11.1% 39.7% 14.2% 42.7% 39.7% 16.7% up to HUF 5m HUF 5-10m HUF 10-15m under 5 yrs 5 - 10 yrs 10 - 15 yrs HUF 15-20m over HUF 20m 15
Slide 21: Representative margin on mortgage loans
Representative margin on mortgage loans Validity before after after 16 June 2003 16 June 2003 22 December 2003 Rate paid by customer 6% (4+2%) max. 5% (3+2%) max. 8%** (max. GBBY * 1.1 + 4% - GBBY * 0.6) Liability side subsidy 10% (CMB coupon + 2% 9.03% (GBBY * 5.16% (GBBY* 0.6) but max. 10%) 1.05)
Slide 22: Distribution technology
Distribution technology Bank cards ATMs 2,000,000 1,350 45% 1,305 1,303 1,750,000 1,300 1,285 44% 1,500,000 1,250 1,228 1,250,000 43% 1,200 1,183 1,168 1,151 1,000,000 1,150 1,127 42% 1,112 750,000 1,091 1,100 41% 500,000 1,050 250,000 40% 1,000 0 950 39% Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Se
Slide 23: Corporate business
Corporate business HUF bn Corporate loans HUF bn Corporate deposits 500 20% 700 14.5% 645 628 580 591 402 389 600 14.0% 541 400 370 358 18% 341 500 13.5% 321 300 15.7% 16% 400 13.0% 14.6% 200 14.3% 14% 300 12.5% 11.9% 13.1% 13.4% 11.9% 12.8% 200 11.7% 12.0% 11.6% 100 12% 11.4% 100 11.5% 21 17 18 18
Slide 24: Municipality business
Municipality business ng ty stro onali a s HUF bn Municipal loans Municipal deposits se HUF bn 100 58% 180 169 82% 78.9 79.0 158 157 156 80 57% 150 78% 66.5 67.6 60.7 60 56% 120 75.2% 74% 74.1% 100 74.9% 55.6% 90 70% 40 55.4% 55.4% 55% 60 68.7% 66% 20 54.3% 54.4% 54% 30 62% 0 60.4% 58% 0 53% 31-Mar-
Slide 25: Equity, CAR
Equity, CAR HUF bn Equity, gearing Book value per share HUF 350 10.1% 10.0% 1,300 Bank Group 1,165 1,090 9.7% 1,100 1,052 300 9.8% 969 990 909 917 935 9.7% 900 852 784 9.5% 9.5% 250 9.5% 700 9.3% 500 200 9.2% 300 9.1% 31-Mar-03 30-Jun-03 30-Sep-03 31-Dec-03 31-Mar-04 150 8.9% Capital adequacy 8.7% 8
Slide 26: Efficiency, productivity
Efficiency, productivity HUF mn HUF mn 400 19,000 14 18,000 13.2 353 350 346 17,500 16,707 315 12 16,000 17,086 17,044 293 300 287 16,000 273 243 10 9.6 14,000 250 228.5 14,500 9.2 227 8.0 216.1 210.5 205 8.3 200 13,000 8 12,000 12,650 12,809 12,707 12,504 7.6 7.2 150 11,500 6.0 6.4 6.4 6 5.6 10,000
Slide 27: Performance indicators
Performance indicators Non-interest vs. total income Cost income ratio 48% 47.1% 65% 46.6% 62.0% 46% 60.5% 60.4% 59.6% 44.1% 44.1% 44.0% 60% 44% 42.8% 42.5% 41.6% 42.0% 55% 54.1% 42% 50.6% 50.0% 50.6% 40% 50% 48.3% 38% 37.2% 45% 36% 40.7% 34% 40% 3M2003 1H2003 9M 2003 2003 3M2004 3M2003 1H2003 9M 20
Slide 28: ROA, ROE
ROA, ROE ROAE annualized ROAA annualized 45% 3.5% 3.31% 39.6% 3.28% 40% 38.1% 36.3% 3.14% 36.0% 33.3% 35%33.0% 34.0% 32.2% 3.0% 30.6% 2.90% 2.90% 30.6% 2.85% 30% 2.78% 2.66% 25% 2.5% 20% 32.0% 31.3% 31.3% 2.18% 15% 28.4% 2.09% 25.9% 2.0% 10% 5% 28.7% 27.9% 29.3% 25.9% 32.8% 0% 1.5% 1Q 03 1H 03 9M 03
Slide 29: Consolidated subsidiaries
Consolidated subsidiaries 1Q 2003 4Q2003 1Q 2004 1Q04/1Q03 Merkantil Bank Ltd. 547 748 606 10.8% Merkantil-Car Ltd. 304 454 797 162.2% Merkantil Bérlet Ltd. 74 48 70 -5.4% NIMO 2002 Ltd. -- (38) 1 -- Merkantil Group 925 1,212 1,474 59.4% OTP Building Society Ltd. 337 (12) 101 -70.0% OTP Mortgage Ban
Slide 30: The 2008 vision for DSK Bank is a vision of leadership
The 2008 vision for DSK Bank is a vision of leadership Vision Definition of success Key strategic direction Pre-tax profit > EUR 100 mn 1. Retain the leading role in The performance leader ROE after tax > 25% household savings market in Bulgarian banking 2. Remain the top lender to Cost to i
Slide 31: In 2004, DSK will continue its aggressive growth
In 2004, DSK will continue its aggressive growth BGN millions Total assets Net revenues * 2,818 +18% 225.1 +35% 2,391 2,019 167.3 145.7 2002 2003 2004f 2002 2003 2004f Operating profit (no restructuring Operating costs and tax) +6% 110.6 104.5 107.5 91.8 +68% 63.9 52.9 2002 2003 2004f 2002 2003 2004
Slide 32: 2004 financial targets of DSK Bank
2004 financial targets of DSK Bank Financial indicators (BGN millions) 2003 2004 Change 1Q04 25% of the increase due to y-o-y % pricing changes; 75% are due to Net interest income 141.0 177.6 +26 41.4 volume increase Net non-interest income* 26.3 47.5 +81 10.8 Total revenues 167.3 225.1 +35 52.2 Ope
Slide 33: 2004 target growth rates
2004 target growth rates Bank Consolidated Balance sheet related growth rates HUF bn Growth rate HUF bn Growth rate Total assets 3,162.4 14.6% 4,087.0 16.7% Total loans 1,168.0 7.3% 2,385.6 17.8% Corporate loans 767.1 11.0% Retail loans 327.6 3.0% Mortgage loans 166.3 -9.4% 20.0% Consumer loans 161.
Slide 34: Market shares of the subsidiaries
Market shares of the subsidiaries (at 31 March 2004) Mortgage Bank DSK Bank OTP Banka Slovensko by loan volume by deposits by deposits DSK, OTP MB, 15.5% 64.0% OBS, 2.5% Others, Bank Bank 36.0% system, system, 84.5% 87.5% Mortgage Bank DSK Bank OTP Banka Slovensko by bonds issued by loans by loans B
Slide 35: Market shares of the subsidiaries
Market shares of the subsidiaries (at 31 March 2004) OTP-Garancia OTP-Garancia OTP-Garancia insurance life insurance non-life insurance Garancia, Garancia, 7.8% Garancia, 9.2% 7.1% Ot hers, Ot hers, 92.2% Ot hers, 92.9% 90.8% OTP Fund Management OTP Building Society OTP Building Society by volume of
Slide 36: Market shares of the subsidiaries
Market shares of the subsidiaries (at 31 March 2004) Private pension fund* Private pension fund* by managed assets by membership OTP, OTP, Others, 25.2% 72.0% 28.0% Others, 74.8% Voluntary pension fund* Voluntary pension fund* by membership by managed assets OTP, 14.3% OTP, 11.4% Others, 88.6% Other