Consolidated Edison, Inc. · NYSE:ED
Consolidated Edison — Sanford Bernstein Long View Conference 2013
29 slides from Consolidated Edison's conference presentation, Mar 21, 2013
Slide 1: Energy Efficiency & Power Demand Growth - Electrical Equipment & U.S. Utilities
Con Edison, Inc. March 21, 2013 Energy Efficiency & Power Demand Growth - Electrical Equipment & U.S. Utilities Long View Conference 1
Slide 2: Forward-Looking Statements
Forward-Looking Statements This presentation includes certain forward-looking statements intended to qualify for safe-harbor provisions of the Federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectation and not facts. Words such as "expects," "estimates," "anticipates,"
Slide 3: 5-Year Annualized Growth Rates in Peak Usage
5-Year Annualized Growth Rates in Peak Usage Consolidated Edison Company of New York (CECONY) 5-Year Historical Current 2002-2007 5-Year (Pre-Recession) Forecast Electric 1.8% 1.3% Gas 1.0% 4.3% 3
Slide 4: Electric Consumption by Customer Class – CECONY vs. U.S.
Electric Consumption by Customer Class – CECONY vs. U.S. U.S. CECONY 38% 35% 28% 70% 2% 27% Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Source: Bernstein Research, Consolidated Edison Company of New York 4
Slide 5: Residential vs. Commercial Peak Demand Growth
Residential vs. Commercial Peak Demand Growth Commercial demand has responded to economic activity more than residential demand 9,000 8,000 7,000 Megawatts 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Residential Demand Commercial Demand Industrial Dem
Slide 6: Historical CECONY Electricity Demand
Historical CECONY Electricity Demand Despite many U.S. recessions, CECONY has only seen four years of decline since 1970, three of which were consecutive years during The Great Recession. 14,000 13,000 9/11 The Great (2001) Recession 12,000 Peak (MW) Enlightened Decline (2009-2011) 11,000 Energy Pro
Slide 7: Peak Forecasting Process
Peak Forecasting Process Actual Peak Weather Adjustment Top-Down Bottom-Up Demand Growth/Decline -Demand Management + Other Adjustments = Final Peak Demand Forecast 7
Slide 8: U.S. GDP Forecast Vintages (2007-2012)
U.S. GDP Forecast Vintages (2007-2012) Historical long-term GDP forecasted growth rates have not changed significantly over time 16,000 2.9% 2.4% 2.1% 3.1% 2.7% 2.6% 15,000 14,000 13,000 Megawatts 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Slide 9: Growth Forecasts for Peak Demand for CECONY Electric Networks
Growth Forecasts for Peak Demand for 82 CECONY Electric Networks Bottom-up Forecast Five-Year Compounded Growth Rates > 1.4% > 0.7% & < 1.4% < 0.4% New York City Westchester 9
Slide 10: CECONY Residential Building Permits
CECONY Residential Building Permits 40,000 36-year High occurred due to extension and then expiration of NYC Tax Abatement Program 35,000 30,000 Number of Permits Issued 25,000 30-Yr Average 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2011 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Slide 11: CECONY Peak Demand Illustration with Components
CECONY Peak Demand Illustration with Components Energy Efficiency measures contribute significantly to slower future growth 14,500 5-Yr Peak Reductions: 14,300 Energy Efficiency Demand Response Codes &Standards 1.60% 0.54% 0.00% 14,100 13,900 13,700 Megawatts 13,500 13,300 13,100 12,900 12,700 12,50
Slide 12: Con Edison – Manhattan Landscape
Con Edison – Manhattan Landscape 12
Slide 13: Demand Reduction Significance
Demand Reduction Significance Demand (Megawatts) 36 hours comprised the top 1,200 MW 13
Slide 14: Energy Efficiency and Demand Management Overview
Energy Efficiency and Demand Management Overview • 13 Energy Efficiency electric and gas programs for large commercial, small business, residential, and multifamily customers – Funded through system benefits charges on customer electric and gas bills – Programs to date have resulted in saving 173,00
Slide 15: Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Programs by Customer Segment (2009 – 2012)
Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Programs by Customer Segment (2009 – 2012) Savings/Enrollment (MWh) Participation (Number of Customers) 40 1,800 21,000 9,000 200 6,000 44,000 53,000 6,000 2,000 42,000 101,000 Commercial and Industrial Energy Efficiency Programs Multifamily Energy Efficiency Pr
Slide 16: Commercial Demand Response Enrollment
Commercial Demand Response Enrollment Commercial System Relief Program – CSRP - Peak Shaving Distribution Load Relief Program – DLRP - Contingency MWs Accounts 250 800 800 230 230 700 700 700 200 200 600 150 500 300 80 400 100 50 300 150 200 50 1 2 100 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 CSRP DLRP CSR
Slide 17: Forecasting Energy Efficiency and Demand Management Programs
Forecasting Energy Efficiency and Demand Management Programs • We forecast the impact of energy efficiency and demand management programs to better assess future revenue requirements and capital planning needs. • Programs in the forecast include: Con Edison EEPS, NYSERDA EEPS, NYPA DSM, Con Edison T
Slide 18: Targeted Demand Side Management Program
Targeted Demand Side Management Program • Targeted DSM provides incentives in select neighborhoods where electric capacity constraints exist • From 2004-2012, the Targeted DSM program achieved 108 MW of demand reduction and 281 GWh of annual energy savings with a benefit cost ratio of approximately
Slide 19: Forecasted Demand Management is Included in Electric System Planning
Forecasted Demand Management is Included in Electric System Planning Proactive DSM 280 275 270 Build needed 2016 265 Build deferred to 2018 MW 260 Build deferred to 2020 255 250 245 240 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Capacity Load no DSM Load with DSM Load with DSM+ Six MW of perm
Slide 20: Barriers to Short Term Forecasting of EISA Impacts
Barriers to Short Term Forecasting of Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) Impacts • Changes to codes and standards often impact manufacturing or import standards, but rarely address the retail sales of off-spec materials from existing inventory • Half of all retailers in California still had
Slide 21: Value Proposition
Value Proposition • Changes to codes and standards, as well as State efficiency programs, result in protracted regulatory and implementation processes, but can have long-term impacts on reducing capital costs and customer bills • Demand Side Management can produce peak demand reductions that: – bene
Slide 22: Appendix
Appendix ED GconEdison, inc. NYSE
Slide 23: System Peak Forecasting: Top-down Analysis
System Peak Forecasting: Top-down Analysis Households PNM Employment Households & population is expected to increase an average Appliances U.S.GDP of 0.4% over the next 10 years Employment is expected to Occupancy Number of Customers increase 1.4% over the next 10 years Price of Electricity Customer
Slide 24: CECONY Power Demand: Five-Year Compound Annual Growth (%)
CECONY Power Demand: Five-Year Compound Annual Growth (%) Demand growth has ebbed and flowed with economy, much like the Nation 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% -0.50% -1.00% Source: Consolidated Edison Company of New York 24
Slide 25: Ratio of 5-Year Growth in CECONY Power Demand to U.S. GDP Growth
Ratio of 5-Year Compound Annual Growth in CECONY Power Demand to 5-Year Compound Annual Growth in U.S. GDP CECONY Demand growth has a similar relationship with U.S. GDP growth 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 Source: Consolidated Edison Company of New York & Bureau of Economic Analysis 25
Slide 26: 5 Year CAGR: Demand/GDP vs. Demand Growth
5 Year CAGR: Demand/GDP vs. Demand Growth Both average annual demand and GDP growth has slowed in the last decade 2.00 4.00% 3.50% 1.50 3.00% 1.00 2.50% 2.00% 0.50 1.50% 0.00 1.00% -0.50 0.50% 0.00% -1.00 -0.50% -1.50 -1.00% 5 Year CAGR's: Demand Growth/GDP (Left Axis) 5 Year Demand CAGR (Right Axis
Slide 27: Current and Expected Combined Heat and Power (CHP)
Current and Expected Combined Heat and Power (CHP) Forecast CHP (2012 – 2018) Existing Internal Combustion Engine CHP Existing Gas Turbine CHP Existing Fuel Cell CHP Existing Steam Turbine CHP Existing Microturbine CHP 27
Slide 28: Increasing Interest in PV and CHP
Increasing Interest in PV and CHP Total Number of Customers by Technology Total Installed Capacity 1200 160 MW 140 MW 1000 PV CHP 120 MW 800 100 MW 600 80 MW 60 MW 400 CHP 40 MW 200 PV 20 MW 0 0 MW
Slide 29: Glossary
Glossary: • CECONY: Consolidated Edison Company of New York • DSM: Demand Side Management • EEPS: Energy Efficiency Portfolio Standard • NYISO: New York Independent System Operator • NYPA: New York Power Authority • NYSERDA: The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority • PNM Employme
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