Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company) · NYSE:DUK

Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company) — Duke Energy Indiana — Technical Presentation (November 2021)

54 slides from Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company)'s technical presentation, Nov 16, 2021

  1. Slide 1: 2021 Integrated Resource Plan Stakeholder Workshop #7

    2021 Integrated Resource Plan Stakeholder Workshop #7 Nov 16, 2021

  2. Slide 2: What are the Goals of the IRP Process

    What are the Goals of the IRP Process INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN (IRP): DEI’s plan to provide safe, reliable and sustainable energy solutions for our Customers in Indiana. • IRPs are submitted every three years • Plan is created with stakeholder input • 20-year look at how DEI can cost-effectively ser

  3. Slide 3: Agenda

    Agenda 1:00 Welcome & Protocols 1:10 IRP Regulatory Requirements, Stakeholder Timeline & Comments 1:20 Stakeholder Portfolios 1:50 PVRR, CO2 & Market Purchase Data 2:20 Sensitivities 2:50 Anna Sommer on behalf of CAC 3:05 Analytical Framework & Scorecard/Criteria 3:50 Timeline to Submission 3:55 Wra

  4. Slide 4: Roadmap for Stakeholder Process

    Roadmap for Stakeholder Process Workshop 1 Workshop 2 Workshop 3 Workshop 4 Workshop Workshop 6 Workshop 7 Nov. 20, 2020 Jan. 21, 2021 April 21, 2021 June 21, 2021 5a (Aug 4) & Oct 27, 2021 Nov 16, 2021 5b (Sept 10) ✓ Goals of IRP ✓ Recap ✓ Recap ➢ Follow-ups: ➢ Follow-ups ➢ Follow-ups ➢ Follow-ups

  5. Slide 5: Stakeholder & Stakeholder Inspired Portfolios

    Stakeholder & Stakeholder Inspired Portfolios 5

  6. Slide 6: Environmentally Focused Portfolio

    Environmentally Focused Portfolio Enviro Focused Portfolio 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Cayuga 1&2 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 Edwardsport IGCC 618 618 Edwardsport CC 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586

  7. Slide 7: Reliable Energy Portfolio

    Reliable Energy Portfolio Carbon Capture and Sequestration added Reliable Energy Portfolio 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Cayuga 1&2 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 Edwardsport IGCC 618 618 618 618 618 429 429 429 429 429 429 4

  8. Slide 8: PVRR Through 2030 (in B$)

    PVRR Through 2030 (in B$) SCENARIOS PVRR Through 2030 Reference w/o Reference w/ CO2 High Gas Prices Low Gas Prices CO2 Regulation Regulation 1 Ref w/o CO2 Reg $8.8 $9.2 $9.5 $8.2 Optimized 2 Ref w/ CO2 Reg $8.6 $8.9 $9.6 $8.1 3 High Gas Prices $9.0 $9.5 $9.5 $8.3 4 Low Gas Prices $8.4 $8.7 $9.5 $7.

  9. Slide 9: PVRR Through 2040 (in B$)

    PVRR Through 2040 (in B$) SCENARIOS PVRR Through 2040 Reference w/o Reference w/ CO2 High Gas Prices Low Gas Prices CO2 Regulation Regulation 1 Ref w/o CO2 Reg $15.3 $17.7 $17.3 $14.1 Optimized 2 Ref w/ CO2 Reg $15.6 $16.1 $18.3 $14.4 3 High Gas Prices $15.8 $18.8 $16.8 $14.6 4 Low Gas Prices $15.1

  10. Slide 10: CO2 Reduction Through 2030 (vs 2005 baseline)

    CO2 Reduction Through 2030 (vs 2005 baseline) SCENARIOS CO2 Reduction Through 2030 Reference w/o Reference w/ CO2 High Gas Prices Low Gas Prices CO2 Regulation Regulation 1 Ref w/o CO2 Reg -32% -66% -32% -36% Optimized 2 Ref w/ CO2 Reg -68% -68% -57% -58% 3 High Gas Prices -16% -66% -14% -29% 4 Low

  11. Slide 11: CO2 Reduction Through 2040 (vs 2005 baseline)

    CO2 Reduction Through 2040 (vs 2005 baseline) SCENARIOS CO2 Reduction Through 2040 Reference w/o Reference w/ CO2 High Gas Prices Low Gas Prices CO2 Regulation Regulation 1 Ref w/o CO2 Reg -32% -76% -33% -47% Optimized 2 Ref w/ CO2 Reg -77% -77% -73% -61% 3 High Gas Prices -19% -83% -18% -51% 4 Low

  12. Slide 12: Avg Mkt Purchases Through 2030 (% of energy)

    Avg Mkt Purchases Through 2030 (% of energy) SCENARIOS Market Purchase Percentage Reference w/o Reference w/ CO2 Through 2030 High Gas Prices Low Gas Prices CO2 Regulation Regulation 1 Ref w/o CO2 Reg 16% 37% 10% 29% Optimized 2 Ref w/ CO2 Reg 15% 26% 11% 25% 3 High Gas Prices 18% 48% 10% 38% 4 Low

  13. Slide 13: Avg Mkt Purchases 2030-40 (% of energy)

    Avg Mkt Purchases 2030-40 (% of energy) Market Purchase Percentage SCENARIOS Reference w/o Reference w/ CO2 2030-2040 High Gas Prices Low Gas Prices CO2 Regulation Regulation 1 Ref w/o CO2 Reg 13% 56% 14% 28% Optimized 2 Ref w/ CO2 Reg 13% 15% 14% 12% 3 High Gas Prices 10% 71% 8% 37% 4 Low Gas Price

  14. Slide 14: Sensitivities

    Sensitivities # Sensitivity Rationale 1 High Load Regulatory Requirement and will be included in IRP 2 Low Load Regulatory Requirement and will be included in IRP 3 Climate Change Load Impact of Climate Change Load forecast on resource plan Tests the impact on the optimal portfolios in a future that

  15. Slide 15: Climate Change Load Forecast Sensitivity

    Climate Change Load Forecast Sensitivity Clim Chg Port 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Cayuga 1&2 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 Edwardsport IGCC 618 618 Edwardsport CC 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 58

  16. Slide 16: RFI Data Sensitivity

    RFI Data Sensitivity RFI Port 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Cayuga 1&2 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 Edwardsport IGCC 618 618 Edwardsport CC 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 Gibson 1&2

  17. Slide 17: Higher Wind ELCC Sensitivity

    Higher Wind ELCC Sensitivity Wind ELCC 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Cayuga 1&2 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 500 500 500 500 Edwardsport IGCC 618 618 Edwardsport CC 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 58

  18. Slide 18: Higher Cost Gas Generation Sensitivity

    Higher Cost Gas Generation Sensitivity High Gas Gen Cost 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Cayuga 1&2 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 Edwardsport IGCC 618 618 Edwardsport CC 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586

  19. Slide 19: Emissions Sensitivity

    Emissions Sensitivity METRICS Upstream GHG 2040 DEI Gen 2040 DEI Gen 2040 PVRR with & CO2 Emissions (K CO2e Emissions 2040 PVRR (B$) Social Cost of Social Cost of Carbon with Methane Tons) Carbon (B$) (K tons) 1 Ref w/o CO2 Reg 4,059 5,552 $15.3 $27.4 Optimized 2 Ref w/ CO2 Reg 7,012 9,592 $15.6 $27

  20. Slide 20: IRP Decision Criteria (Results)

    IRP Decision Criteria (Results) Portfolio Reliability Resilience / Stability Affordability Environmental Sustainability Flexibility Dispatchable Can portfolio Average Can portfolio mix 2040 CO2 On track for Diversity of Average of 5 year CAGR of METRIC Resources as a serve load in all percentage of

  21. Slide 21: Preferred Portfolio

    Preferred Portfolio The Renewables/CC/CT portfolio was selected as the preferred portfolio for the 2021 DEI IRP Preferred Portfolio 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Cayuga 1&2 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 Edwardsport IGCC 618

  22. Slide 22: Preferred Portfolio Performance

    Preferred Portfolio Performance 22

  23. Slide 23: Comparison of 2018 & 2021 IRP

    Comparison of 2018 & 2021 IRP 23

  24. Slide 24: Preferred Portfolio Highlights

    Preferred Portfolio Highlights Performance Metric Highlight Near term rate impact Averages 1.3% CAGR over 5 years Long term costs Transitions portfolio at a reasonable cost Reduces CO2 emissions vs 2005 baseline 53% in 2030 and CO2 reduction 83% in 2040 Averages 19% of energy needs coming from the m

  25. Slide 25: Closing Comments, Stakeholder Comments

    Closing Comments, Stakeholder Comments 25

  26. Slide 26: Wrap Up

    Wrap Up • Introduction of Duke Energy Indiana’s Independent 3rd Party Administrator for its upcoming RFP for generation • Meeting Survey • Comments can also be sent to: • Scott at: scott.park@duke-energy.com • Stewart at: stewart@vanry.com • Meeting summary and other materials will be posted on webs

  27. Slide 27: APPENDIX

    APPENDIX 27

  28. Slide 28: Acronyms

    Acronyms AMI Advanced Metering Infrastructure LMI Low-Medium Income CHP Combined Heat & Power MW Megawatt CPP Critical Peak Pricing NEM Net Energy Metering CS Small Commercial NDA Non-disclosure agreement DR Demand Response PPA Purchase Power Agreement DER Distributed Energy Resource PVRR Present Va

  29. Slide 29: Resource Definitions

    Resource Definitions • Battery/Storage - Four (4) hour battery storage • Capacity PPA (Capacity purchase power agreement) - Near term capacity needed to meet forecasted reserve margin requirements. Could be place holder for capacity only purchase or purchases of power or existing assets coming out o

  30. Slide 30: Scorecard Notes

    Scorecard Notes Portfolio Reliability Resilience / Stability Affordability Environmental Sustainability Flexibility Can Can On track portfolio 2040 CO2 Dispatchable portfolio Average Diversity of Average of 5 year for Challenges mix serve Reduction SO2, Nox, Range of Resources serve load percentage

  31. Slide 31: Optimized Portfolio for Ref w/o CO2 Reg

    Optimized Portfolio for Ref w/o CO2 Reg OPT REF w/o CO2 Reg 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Cayuga 1&2 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 Edwardsport IGCC 618 618 Edwardsport CC 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 5

  32. Slide 32: Optimized Portfolio for Ref w/ CO2 Reg

    Optimized Portfolio for Ref w/ CO2 Reg Opt Ref w/ CO2 Reg 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Cayuga 1&2 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 Edwardsport IGCC 618 618 Edwardsport CC 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586

  33. Slide 33: Optimized Portfolio for High Gas Scenario

    Optimized Portfolio for High Gas Scenario HIGH GAS 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Cayuga 1&2 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 Edwardsport IGCC 6

  34. Slide 34: Optimized Portfolio for Low Gas Scenario

    Optimized Portfolio for Low Gas Scenario LOW GAS 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Cayuga 1&2 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 Edwardsport IGCC 618 618 Edwardsport CC 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586

  35. Slide 35: Balanced Portfolio

    Balanced Portfolio Balanced Hybrid 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Cayuga 1&2 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 Edwardsport IGCC 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 Edwardsport CC Gibson

  36. Slide 36: Renewables/CC Portfolio

    Renewables/CC Portfolio Renewable-CC Portfolio 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Cayuga 1&2 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 Edwardsport IGCC 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 Edwardsport CC 541 541 541 541 54

  37. Slide 37: Renewables/CC/CT Portfolio

    Renewables/CC/CT Portfolio Ren/CC/CT Hyrbid Port 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Cayuga 1&2 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 Edwardsport IGCC 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 Edwardsport CC 586 586 586 586

  38. Slide 38: Renewables/CT Portfolio

    Renewables/CT Portfolio Renewable-CT Portfolio 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Cayuga 1&2 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 Edwardsport IGCC 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 Edwardsport CC 586 586 586 586 58

  39. Slide 39: Biden 100 Portfolio

    Biden 100 Portfolio Biden 100 Portfolio 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Cayuga 1&2 1,005 1,005 1,005 505 505 505 505 Edwardsport IGCC 618 618 Edwardsport CC Gibson 1&2 1,270 1,270 1,270 1,270 1,270 1,270 1,270 1,270 1,270 1,270 635

  40. Slide 40: Biden 90 Portfolio

    Biden 90 Portfolio Biden 90 Portfolio 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Cayuga 1&2 1,005 1,005 1,005 505 505 505 505 Edwardsport IGCC 618 618 Edwardsport CC Gibson 1&2 1,270 1,270 1,270 1,270 1,270 1,270 1,270 1,270 1,270 1,270 635 63

  41. Slide 41: Environmentally Focused Portfolio

    Environmentally Focused Portfolio Enviro Focused Portfolio 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Cayuga 1&2 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 Edwardsport IGCC 618 618 Edwardsport CC 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586

  42. Slide 42: Reliable Energy Portfolio

    Reliable Energy Portfolio Carbon Capture and Sequestration added Reliable Energy Portfolio 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Cayuga 1&2 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 Edwardsport IGCC 618 618 618 618 618 429 429 429 429 429 429 4

  43. Slide 43: PVRR in Ref w/o CO2 Reg

    PVRR in Ref wlo CO2 Reg Portfolio PVRRs in Ref w/o CO2 Reg Scenario (in BS) $250 $200 $150 s100 soo 201 2022-—«23-—=—«2024-—=«2S.—« DH. ©—«202T_—«2DB.~©—«2029~=«2080:=~«S=«0B1._-—«=«20S?_=—=«ORB:«C«OA~=««20HSS«mBHS20R7 =m «2089 «20H fm, DUKE wfocO2Ree ref w/c02 Res ich sas Prices tow Gas rices —atan

  44. Slide 44: PVRR in Ref w/ CO2 Reg

    & DUKE ENERGY. 3250 $200 $150 $100 $00 PVRR in Ref w/ CO2 Reg Portfolio PVRRs in Ref w/ CO2 Reg Scenario (in BS) 202120222023 Ret w/o C02 Reg enewables/cr Hybrid 20a 2025 Ret w/ CO? Reg siden 100 2026 2027 High Gas aiden 90 2008 = 2029-2030 20310322033 Prices tow Gas Prices Balanced Hybrid Enviro Fo

  45. Slide 45: PVRR in High Gas Scenario

    PVRR in High Gas Scenario Portfolio PVRRs in High Gas Scenario {in BS) 0 s200 s1s0 $50 Se ENERGY. rerowsiefcrhyeds biden 100 icons snirofoces folate era 45

  46. Slide 46: PVRR in Low Gas Scenario

    PVRR in Low Gas Scenario & DUKE ENERGY. 5250 $200 $150 S100 350 $00 20212022 ref v/o C02 Ree, —enewables/CT Hybrid 2023 2028 2025 ref w/ C02 Reg aiden 100 pos 2007 High Gas Prices aiden 90 Portfolio PVRRs in Low Gas Scenario (in BS) 28 «2029=«2030-S 203120822083 034 208520882037 = 203820892080 tow G

  47. Slide 47: CO2 Emissions in Ref w/o CO2 Reg

    CO2 Emissions in Ref w/o CO2 Reg x 47

  48. Slide 48: CO2 Emissions in Ref w/ CO2 Reg

    CO2 Emissions in Ref w/ CO2 Reg x 48

  49. Slide 49: CO2 Emissions in High Gas Scenario

    CO2 Emissions in High Gas Scenario x 49

  50. Slide 50: CO2 Emissions in Low Gas Scenario

    CO2 Emissions in Low Gas Scenario x 50

  51. Slide 51: Market Purchases in Ref w/o CO2 Reg (% of energy)

    Market Purchases in Ref w/o CO2 Reg (% of energy) x 51

  52. Slide 52: Market Purchases in Ref w/ CO2 Reg (% of energy)

    Market Purchases in Ref w/ CO2 Reg (% of energy) x 52

  53. Slide 53: Market Purchases in High Gas Scenario (% of energy)

    Market Purchases in High Gas Scenario (% of energy) x 53

  54. Slide 54: Market Purchases in Low Gas Scenario (% of energy)

    Market Purchases in Low Gas Scenario (% of energy) x 54

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